(01-06-2022, 10:55 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]16-5 (I think) when we hold the other team below the 110 DRating line and two of those included buzzer beaters.
Two of the five losses, you mean?
(01-06-2022, 10:55 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]16-5 (I think) when we hold the other team below the 110 DRating line and two of those losses included buzzer beaters.
Pretty incredible how good this team has been with just an average defensive performance.
Kinda did a 180. As of now I cannot tell if this years team is better than last years but the approach changed. And it shows the difference in Kidd´s and RC´s mentality. At times the Mavs offense is unwatchable. They are going through stretches where they cannot score at all. Kidd is letting them play through it and focuses on defense. As long as they are getting stops they aren´t allowing big runs even if they cannot score. Similar things happen when the Mavs go on a run. It´s not the explosive RC era offense that put up 20 in 3-4 minutes. I think Kidd called it defensive runs. Mavs are making runs even though they are shooting less than 40% from the field. They are forcing stops.
The naive solution to get the best of both worlds would feature a more RC like offense with the new defense but that´s obviously not possible. So far better defense comes at a price. Spending more energy on defense might impact the legs on offense. @"Kammrath" mentioned that as a potential reason for the even slower pace.
Most interesting topic are the lineup decisions. I think the Mavs still lack players with two-way impact. That leads to some tough decisions. Easiest example would be THJ or Bullock. One offers more on offense. The other on defense.
So far they sacrified offense and improved the defense. The latter is probably more sustainable and it is nice to be less depended on streaky shooting performances but in the end I don´t see how a team that struggles to put up 100pts against bad defenses wins a playoff series.
There is still time to improve the offense and I would imagine that Luka getting back into shape should be enough to reach borderline top 10 status. Definitely think that "Luka + secondary creator + defensive minded role players" (a little bit like Dirk in the Johnson and early RC years) is a better option than Luka leading one of the best offenses in the league but losing playoff series because they cannot get a stop.
Offense wasn´t the problem in both series against the Clippers. 113 O-rating from the 2020 series would rank 4th in the league this season. 116.5 O-rating from the 2021 series would rank 2nd in the league this season.
(01-06-2022, 12:58 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Kinda did a 180. As of now I cannot tell if this years team is better than last years but the approach changed. And it shows the difference in Kidd´s and RC´s mentality. At times the Mavs offense is unwatchable. They are going through stretches where they cannot score at all. Kidd is letting them play through it and focuses on defense. As long as they are getting stops they aren´t allowing big runs even if they cannot score. Similar things happen when the Mavs go on a run. It´s not the explosive RC era offense that put up 20 in 3-4 minutes. I think Kidd called it defensive runs. Mavs are making runs even though they are shooting less than 40% from the field. They are forcing stops.
The naive solution to get the best of both worlds would feature a more RC like offense with the new defense but that´s obviously not possible. So far better defense comes at a price. Spending more energy on defense might impact the legs on offense. @"Kammrath" mentioned that as a potential reason for the even slower pace.
Most interesting topic are the lineup decisions. I think the Mavs still lack players with two-way impact. That leads to some tough decisions. Easiest example would be THJ or Bullock. One offers more on offense. The other on defense.
So far they sacrified offense and improved the defense. The latter is probably more sustainable and it is nice to be less depended on streaky shooting performances but in the end I don´t see how a team that struggles to put up 100pts against bad defenses wins a playoff series.
There is still time to improve the offense and I would imagine that Luka getting back into shape should be enough to reach borderline top 10 status. Definitely think that "Luka + secondary creator + defensive minded role players" (a little bit like Dirk in the Johnson and early RC years) is a better option than Luka leading one of the best offenses in the league but losing playoff series because they cannot get a stop.
Offense wasn´t the problem in both series against the Clippers. 113 O-rating from the 2020 series would rank 4th in the league this season. 116.5 O-rating from the 2021 series would rank 2nd in the league this season.
So based on this, some individual player questions emerge:
Brunson: Does he fit as that secondary creator? Does his lack of defense and willingness/ability to catch and shoot 3s limit his effectiveness in this area?
KP: Assuming they can iron out his offensive mesh with Luka, is he good enough defensively? Especially if its with both Luka and Brunson? How much are we going to play him with a second center in the future, and how does that impact the defense?
THJ: What role does he play in this defensive mindset? He can only really be a 6th man, and you really don't want him out there finishing games with both Luka and Brunson. Was that worth 19 mil? Was there a better option in free agency?
I think someone mentioned this earlier, but it seems really tough to continue with the defensive mentality with KP/Luka/THJ/Brunson as part of your primary core. The ideal scenario would be to trade some combination of those players for a true 2 way secondary creator, get an MLE rim running/protecting big, and run with the rest of the guys who fit (DFS/Maxi/Bullock/Frank/Green/Brown).
(01-06-2022, 12:58 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]
So far they sacrified offense and improved the defense. The latter is probably more sustainable and it is nice to be less depended on streaky shooting performances but in the end I don´t see how a team that struggles to put up 100pts against bad defenses wins a playoff series.
There is still time to improve the offense and I would imagine that Luka getting back into shape should be enough to reach borderline top 10 status.
Post of the week IMHO.
I'm going to continue to beat the drum that it is impossible to know how good the Luka/KP combo is USING FULL SEASON NUMBERS. The first few weeks were that bad. There is evidence of substantial improvement and they haven't played even a minute together since this big improvement in D began around 12/12. It is the stuff that I "know" with certainty that is often the most wrong.
People have been touting Estimated +/- (EPM) as an analysis that teams think is a good one. I thought I'd share their updated numbers ranked by D-EPM as a means of determining where we stand in terms of offensive/defensive balance is with our top 11 guys. The format will be:
D-EPM Player Name (O-EPM, Overall EPM).
78th Green (25th, 42nd)
77th Maxi (40th, 54th)
75th DFS (70th, 76th)
75th KP (95th, 94th)
73rd Bullock (16th, 32nd)
71st Luka (94th, 94th)
67th Powell (71st, 73rd)
54th Frank (32nd, 37th)
40th THJ (70th, 62nd)
39th SBrown (29th, 28th)
17th Brunson (90th, 75th)
On the 6th best D, no single player is in the 80th percentile or higher, but seven guys are in the top third of the league (Team D).
We have two players in the 90's in terms of overall EPM in Luka and KP. There are three in the 70's overall in DFS, Brunson and Powell.
After that, Maxi and THJ are your above average (overall) specialists. Maxi better on D and THJ better on O (despite being down on all of his offensive numbers compared to career and Dallas averages). If I were trying to do something (outside of the next Sammie Superstar chase), I'd look at the below average (overall) specialists including Bullock, Frank and Sterling (Green shows two NBA ready skills and is young, I would NOT trade him based on this analysis).
(01-06-2022, 02:30 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Post of the week IMHO.
I'm going to continue to beat the drum that it is impossible to know how good the Luka/KP combo is USING FULL SEASON NUMBERS. The first few weeks were that bad. There is evidence of substantial improvement and they haven't played even a minute together since this big improvement in D began around 12/12. It is the stuff that I "know" with certainty that is often the most wrong.
People have been touting Estimated +/- (EPM) as an analysis that teams think is a good one. I thought I'd share their updated numbers ranked by D-EPM as a means of determining where we stand in terms of offensive/defensive balance is with our top 11 guys. The format will be:
D-EPM Player Name (O-EPM, Overall EPM).
78th Green (25th, 42nd)
77th Maxi (40th, 54th)
75th DFS (70th, 76th)
75th KP (95th, 94th)
73rd Bullock (16th, 32nd)
71st Luka (94th, 94th)
67th Powell (71st, 73rd)
54th Frank (32nd, 37th)
40th THJ (70th, 62nd)
39th SBrown (29th, 28th)
17th Brunson (90th, 75th)
On the 6th best D, no single player is in the 80th percentile or higher, but seven guys are in the top third of the league (Team D).
We have two players in the 90's in terms of overall EPM in Luka and KP. There are three in the 70's overall in DFS, Brunson and Powell.
After that, Maxi and THJ are your above average (overall) specialists. Maxi better on D and THJ better on O (despite being down on all of his offensive numbers compared to career and Dallas averages). If I were trying to do something (outside of the next Sammie Superstar chase), I'd look at the below average (overall) specialists including Bullock, Frank and Sterling (Green shows two NBA ready skills and is young, I would NOT trade him based on this analysis).
The other really highly respected advanced stat is Lebron. For me this is the metric that most meets the "eye test". It has similar results as EPM with a few key exceptions:
It is more down on Luka defense (below average)
It is more down on Powell overall (below average, this is probably the biggest difference)
It is higher on Brunson (clearly third best player with DFS being forth)
It is higher on Frank and Green (average)
According to this metric the below average specialists are Powell, Bullock and Sterling, and according to both metrics THJ is overpaid.
(01-06-2022, 02:58 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]The other really highly respected advanced stat is Lebron. For me this is the metric that most meets the "eye test". It has similar results as EPM with a few key exceptions:
It is more down on Luka defense (below average)
It is more down on Powell overall (below average, this is probably the biggest difference)
It is higher on Brunson (clearly third best player with DFS being forth)
It is higher on Frank and Green (average)
According to this metric the below average specialists are Powell, Bullock and Sterling, and according to both metrics THJ is overpaid.
Metrics or no metrics, my pecking order of favor for the current roster would be:
1) Luka (in his own league, and will be here perennially no matter how bad of a year he's having at any given time)
2) DFS
3) Brunson
4) Maxi
5) Green
6) Sterling Brown
7) Chriss
8) Smokes
9) KP
10) Trey
11) Powell
12) Bullock
13) Moses
14) Boban
15) THJ
16) WCS
Sterling is a solid part of the current success, and Bullock is climbing. With that in mind, the Mavs' priorities should be 1) trade THJ for a back-of-the-rotation player plus air, 2) trade KP for an above-average starter (a borderline all-star like Murray from the Spurs if you can get one) plus whatever else you can get, 3) re-up DFS and Brunson, 4) cut WCS to sign Chriss for the rest of the year, 5) continue to develop Green, Sterling, and Smokes.
I would only trade Brunson if the THJ and/or KP trades bring back a superior ballhandler/shot creator.
(01-06-2022, 03:58 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Metrics or no metrics, my pecking order of favor for the current roster would be:
1) Luka (in his own league, and will be here perennially no matter how bad of a year he's having at any given time)
2) DFS
3) Brunson
4) Maxi
5) Green
6) Sterling Brown
7) Chriss
8) Smokes
9) KP
10) Trey
11) Powell
12) Bullock
13) Moses
14) Boban
15) THJ
16) WCS
Sterling is a solid part of the current success, and Bullock is climbing. With that in mind, the Mavs' priorities should be 1) trade THJ for a back-of-the-rotation player plus air, 2) trade KP for an above-average starter (a borderline all-star like Murray from the Spurs if you can get one) plus whatever else you can get, 3) re-up DFS and Brunson, 4) cut WCS to sign Chriss for the rest of the year, 5) continue to develop Green, Sterling, and Smokes.
I would only trade Brunson if the THJ and/or KP trades bring back a superior ballhandler/shot creator.
God King is a little low on your list, buddy.
KP way too low for a near all star.
(01-06-2022, 04:13 PM)Hypermav Wrote: [ -> ]KP way too low for a near all star.
I'm assuming that list is about who he wants to keep and includes things like contract and fit.
(01-06-2022, 04:13 PM)Hypermav Wrote: [ -> ]KP way too low for a near all star.
It's in terms of my current like/dislike meter for this team.
(01-06-2022, 04:03 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]God King is a little low on your list, buddy.
Why did I know you would say that? I love DFS, but let's not lack in appreciation for a generational talent.
(01-06-2022, 04:21 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I'm assuming that list is about who he wants to keep and includes things like contract and fit.
Nailed it.
What does "Isaiah Thomas not with team" mean? Has his 10 day run out? Seems a shame. I was kind of wanting to see what he could do for us.
(01-06-2022, 02:58 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]The other really highly respected advanced stat is Lebron. For me this is the metric that most meets the "eye test". It has similar results as EPM with a few key exceptions:
It is more down on Luka defense (below average)
It is more down on Powell overall (below average, this is probably the biggest difference)
It is higher on Brunson (clearly third best player with DFS being forth)
It is higher on Frank and Green (average)
According to this metric the below average specialists are Powell, Bullock and Sterling, and according to both metrics THJ is overpaid.
Just to be clear, we are both picking the stat set that most closely reflects our own eye test. It is probably good that we have narrowed in on the two stats that surveyed the best. It is also probably good that we are trying to marry eye-test and stats. But we are probably still dabbling in created truth (which we once called opinion).
I'm not sure a reasonable eye test would agree that KP at 4.3 (7th best in the league) is 145-percent more valuable than Luka at 1.76 (143rd in the league behind Mike Muscala). At least EPM treats them as equals (BTW, I really like the way EPM gives a raw number and a percentile).
Lebron has Powell as a better defender than Bullock? Maybe so, Powell has the better D-Rating, DBPM and D-Win Score, but my eye test would have picked Bullock (like EPM did) as the better defender.
I can't buy into Powell's O-Lebron of -1.22 at all. Powell has the best O-Rating of the entire team. His O-Win Score is second behind Brunson and once again this season he has the highest TS% (and the highest 3% among regulars
). Powell in the 71st percentile offensively at EPM makes much more sense to me than whatever percentile a -1.22 Lebron gets you.
(01-06-2022, 07:14 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Powell has the best O-Rating of the entire team.
Not sure if we are looking at same metric. Nba.com has Powells offensive rating (OFFRTG) well behind Brunson, DFS, THJ, KP and also a little behind Luka. So basically worst among starters. Which confirms my eye-test, that offense suffers because of the weird two centers combinations.
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