(01-01-2022, 02:50 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]We will agree to disagree emphatically, then. All of the players I listed aside from JB are far better defenders than THJ. The Mavs already have to figure out how to integrate Luka and Brunson together into Kidd's vision of defense first. THJ as well is a bridge way too far. He simply has no future here whatsoever presuming JB is re-signed and Kidd is still the coach next year. SB is also a better defender than THJ.
You're saying that like you know for sure it's true. Do you have a source that the Mavs have decided to bail on THJ?
The way I see it, if THJ is still here after the deadline, they're not going to bench him. They just aren't. And, while THJ must do his part, the onus is on Kidd not to run a clunky offense where the team as a whole can't make their shots. Timmy has probably been the biggest victim of the mushy offense, but certainly not the only one. We know that he can be way better, and so can the other regulars, because we've seen them do it in a system that took better advantage of their talents. Agree that neither JB nor THJ is a great defender, but OTOH, Brown and Frankie and so forth can't do what JB and THJ can, either. They need a system that brings out the best of the players' respective abilities.
Personally, I don't think it is a given that JB is going to re-sign, but maybe he will. I think Kidd is very likely to still be here next season. Not that I have inside sources for those points of view, any more than you do on THJ, lol.
(01-01-2022, 03:05 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe, but the offense is the problem this year. The defense isn't perfect, but it's improving. This is one of the most pitiful offenses I've seen in quite some time, which is shocking given where the team was several months ago.
I'm not even saying that making it work with THJ at any cost is necessarily the best option. But, simply taking him out of the rotation would be insane. You either have to get him back on track or use him productively in a trade. If your point is that the players you mentioned are just better overall players, I'd say that's anti-THJ bias. The version of THJ the Mavs got the previous two seasons is better than any of them, which is why he got paid more than any of them. If the Mavs can get that player going again, trust me, they'll be better off for it. If they can't because he doesn't fit here in Kidd's system as well, then they should trade him, ASAP. Simply letting others take his place in line during the first year of his new contract seems like the dumbest possible way of approaching the problem to me.
Re: dumb approaches: isn't there some value to pivoting quickly from their biggest offseason error?
(01-01-2022, 03:13 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Re: dumb approaches: isn't there some value to pivoting quickly from their biggest offseason error?
I think there is at least a decent chance that the Mavs don't view signing THJ as their biggest offseason error, or maybe as an error at all.
And you're talking like there is no room for another opinion on that point, but I don't know about that. I mean, some people might think hiring a coach who torpedoes a perfectly good offense was a significant mistake. Or, maybe hiring a trainee as GM. Or possibly, whiffing on getting a playmaker, which they said themselves was a high priority. There are arguably plenty of areas where they have fallen short. At least, THJ is probably a fixable problem, if they can cobble together a decent offensive scheme.
I'm not saying the Mavs have to keep THJ until the end of time, but I do agree with KL that just putting him on the bench and playing the secondary rotation guys in his place the rest of the season seems like madness.
(01-01-2022, 03:13 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Re: dumb approaches: isn't there some value to pivoting quickly from their biggest offseason error?
Sure, I guess, but it depends on what you mean by "pivot" and how you're applying the word "error."
I think THJ has been BAD this year. I do NOT think he was bad during the previous two seasons at all, and did think he'd earned the contract. I thought it was fine that some wanted to go a different direction with the Mavs' money, don't get me wrong, but I don't think the contract he got was too much for the player he'd become from a team who wanted to use that player in that way.
I think it's reasonable to wonder how much of the disappointing performance is an overnight decline from the player (not likely, imo), a struggle fitting into his new role in the new systems (probably) or just a slump (maybe, but probably at least partially caused by the systems).
What the Mavs have to decide is:
1) can THJ be effective within the strategies that Kidd has implemented? I think it might be premature to decide he can't, but it's possible that's the case.
2) If he can't, then are the strategies really in the team's best interest? Can the strategies be adjusted slightly to find a best case scenario middle ground where some of what was already working here when Kidd was hired can be kept and built upon?
If the above questions have been thought through and anti-THJ conclusions are reached, then you trade him, ASAP, while teams still remember his strong play from the past two seasons, imo. I just don't see any scenario where taking him out of the rotation but keeping him on the team results in an improved outlook for the Mavericks. He was their biggest FA commitment, so I doubt that's going to happen regardless of what we think.
The easiest path to where we want them to be from where they are now is to hope that Luka and THJ both come back and start looking more comfortable in the new team environment. No idea if it will happen.
(01-01-2022, 03:00 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]So if your wife cheated on you once you wouldn't find that "statistically significant" and would just move on with life as normal? How many times does she have to cheat on you for it to be enough data for you to pay attention to?
The point: Even a single data point is INCREDIBLY significant and is telling you something. Obviously MORE data is helpful, but oftentimes in life your data sets are small and you have to discern with wisdom how to interpret what is going on. The NFL deals with this ALL the time. Y'all are having fun mocking me for using a ten game set, but damn in the NFL that is a TON of data.
Well, I respectfully don't think that example is apropos. I think any professional statistician would tell you that for statistics to mean anything, the subject has to be something that lends itself to statistical analysis, and many things don't. Among them, how many discrete times a person is likely to cheat on his/her spouse, given that the person has cheated once. Even if you could aggregate enough cases to come up with a number, statistics don't predict the specific outcome of any particular situation -- they give you a percentage of outcomes when applied to a large group.
Agree that in life, we often have to make decisions with incomplete information, but that doesn't mean that a statistical analysis can shed light on every situation. For example, if I were making decisions with regard to an unfaithful spouse, I would not decide whether she were going to keep cheating based on a statistical analysis of the usual breaking point between a fling and a full-fledged affair. I would make it based on the unique facts of the specific circumstances, and statistics wouldn't even enter into it. For certain things, statistics just aren't helpful. And they're almost never helpful when the sample size is too small to be representative. Which is not to say that a single data point isn't meaningful in itself, as in the case of an adulterous event.
I don't perceive that anyone is mocking you. Just taking issue with a few of your positions, and isn't that what a discussion board is about?
(01-01-2022, 03:00 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]So if your wife cheated on you once you wouldn't find that "statistically significant" and would just move on with life as normal? How many times does she have to cheat on you for it to be enough data for you to pay attention to?
The point: Even a single data point is INCREDIBLY significant and is telling you something. Obviously MORE data is helpful, but oftentimes in life your data sets are small and you have to discern with wisdom how to interpret what is going on. The NFL deals with this ALL the time. Y'all are having fun mocking me for using a ten game set, but damn in the NFL that is a TON of data.
This might be the worse analogy I have ever read. Surly you see how silly this is?
You are posting small sample very noisy stats that don't have a lot of significance, as if they have a lot of significance. Folks are pointing out to you that there is a lot of noise in what you are providing and maybe forming conclusions from it is a little premature. Using infidelity as your counter argument is probably not helping.
The NFL is a different sport with different timelines. It's not a good comparison either. You realize you could probably cherry pick a 10 game stretch last year where we were the best team in the NBA, and another 10 game stretch where we were the worst. How much should we have gathered from that?
(01-01-2022, 02:21 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/espn_macmahon/status...1610913796
Great news. THJ has not been great this year, but the THJ of last year will really help this team. I am not sure if he is here in two years, but I do believe Hardaway of last year is not a bad contract.
I really wonder what our starting lineup is going to look like. I am not a huge fan of the DFS, Bullock, Powell grouping. Those three really don't put enough pressure on defenses. There are no really perfect combo but I am not crazy to going back to the slowish starts.
(01-01-2022, 04:18 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]I really wonder what our starting lineup is going to look like.
The one I personally want to see is Brunson/Luka/Bullock/DFS/KP. Attacking backcourt, defensive wings, and a Unicorn.
(01-01-2022, 05:16 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]The one I personally want to see is Brunson/Luka/Bullock/DFS/KP. Attacking backcourt, defensive wings, and a Unicorn.
Yeah, I think I would like to see that as well. I believe it would look real intriguing if we had a better backup point.
We will see. Jalen is going to get his minutes and close most games. But with his recent strong play, I think he deserves the chance to start.
Luka/FN
Brunson/Green
Bullock/THJ
DFS/Maxi
KP/DP
Bench wouldn’t be horrible either. What they lack on offense they make up for on defense. Could substitute Burke for Green if bench offense struggled
(01-01-2022, 05:16 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]The one I personally want to see is Brunson/Luka/Bullock/DFS/KP. Attacking backcourt, defensive wings, and a Unicorn.
Those 5, along with THJ, who could easily be substituted for either Bullock or Brunson in that lineup, and Kleber, who could spell DFS, are objectively the best players on this roster, so I think most of us agree that the Mavericks need to find out whether or not playing them together can result in effective play.
The fact that this approach hasn't been tried to this point is something I find increasingly puzzling. Maximizing the talents of those 7 players should be the big picture goal for the Mavs, imo.
Bill Simmons' analysis is often a little oversimplified for my taste, but one thing he consistently preaches that I find wise is: you don't have anything until your top 8-9 guys can play
together, and in a way that has a chance of working during the last five minutes of a
playoff game. It's problematic that the Mavs haven't figured out a way to do that, so far.
But the key to that lineup is KP as the lone big. Until that happens we won’t see the best version of this roster.
(01-01-2022, 06:55 PM)rocky164 Wrote: [ -> ]But the key to that lineup is KP as the lone big. Until that happens we won’t see the best version of this roster.
Preach, my guy!
Many of us feel the same way. Coach Kidd, so far, has not.
I buy the idea that shielding KP from center duties at times can reduce some potential wear and tear, but the thing is that at some point they need to find out if he's ever going to be be able to hold up at his most effective position. If he can't, he can't.
And we need to find out if KP at center works for this roster BEFORE the trade deadline. If not, he needs to be traded. The next 6 weeks are critical to evaluate exactly what we have. The time for Kidd messing around is over.
(01-01-2022, 07:03 PM)rocky164 Wrote: [ -> ]And we need to find out if KP at center works for this roster BEFORE the trade deadline. If not, he needs to be traded. The next 6 weeks are critical to evaluate exactly what we have. The time for Kidd messing around is over.
Dude, where have you been? More you!
Been lurking for years, not much of a poster
(01-01-2022, 07:03 PM)rocky164 Wrote: [ -> ]And we need to find out if KP at center works for this roster BEFORE the trade deadline. If not, he needs to be traded. The next 6 weeks are critical to evaluate exactly what we have. The time for Kidd messing around is over.
Yeah, I agree. This is not a knock on Powell. But if he or someone of his ilk is starting, I think this roster will always have a ceiling. Because I think when it matters, KP is going to be playing center in most situations. So, I would prefer to find a higher tier PF type with my future assets.
Although my view may not match up to the teams.
(01-01-2022, 05:16 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]The one I personally want to see is Brunson/Luka/Bullock/DFS/KP. Attacking backcourt, defensive wings, and a Unicorn.
Who's the unicorn? I thought he was on the Bucks ?
You guys ever thought that MavsKidd would be one hell of a poster on this board. He is not messing around (such an impatient fan term) he is learning. I still like to believe he is capable of learning as a coach. Having watched him since his Cal days he seems quite capable of adjusting strategy. I think much of his skill has been in evidence with the 5-5 record without Luka.
The guys coming back is the perfect time to move forward with a few additional players having had some success. You all make good points on the importance of getting this team on the right track. I simply still think J Kidd can do it.
Being an impatient fan is all fine and good as long as we remind ourselves of that once in awhile.
(01-01-2022, 06:52 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Those 5, along with THJ, who could easily be substituted for either Bullock or Brunson in that lineup, and Kleber, who could spell DFS, are objectively the best players on this roster, so I think most of us agree that the Mavericks need to find out whether or not playing them together can result in effective play.
The fact that this approach hasn't been tried to this point is something I find increasingly puzzling. Maximizing the talents of those 7 players should be the big picture goal for the Mavs, imo.
Bill Simmons' analysis is often a little oversimplified for my taste, but one thing he consistently preaches that I find wise is: you don't have anything until your top 8-9 guys can play together, and in a way that has a chance of working during the last five minutes of a playoff game. It's problematic that the Mavs haven't figured out a way to do that, so far.
Agree with all of this. Brunson has evolved into our third best player and Luka needs some creation help on offense, so it makes sense to start Brunson. That makes your starting core Luka/KP/Brunson. That group needs as much defense as it can get. DFS is the most obvious addition. Then its either Bullock or Maxi. I don't think you can put THJ with that group. A Luka/Brunson/THJ pairing is just too much of a defensive liability.
I think our best 8 man rotation would be:
KP/Powell (center)
pick 2 of DFS/Maxi/Bullock (defensive wings)
pick 2 of Luka/Brunson/THJ (offensive guard/wing)
This is assuming Bullock gets it together.