MavsBoard

(04-06-2022, 12:04 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I realize this is all arbitrary, but I would suggest reasonable criteria for a Bullock upgrade would be 70 percentile in O-EPM, D-EPM and 3 point shooting (Bullock is 50-60 in all three categories).  My guess is that would open up a bigger list.

I'm curious how you did that search?  Don't see a simple way to do that.

Maybe you just ordered it by one and scanned it.  My list would include:

Cameron Johnson
Desmond Bane (ouch!)
Kyrie Irving
Lonzo Ball
Jrue Holiday
Mike Conley
Alec Burkes (one hit wonder)
Andrew Wiggins
Kevin Durant
Gordon Hayward
DFS
Stephen Curry
John Collins
Gary Trent Jr
Fred Vanvleet
Kyle Lowry
Joel Embiid
Khris Middleton
Klay Thompson
Mikal Bridges
OG Aunoby

Looking at this list tells me a couple of things.  Its going to be expensive to significantly upgrade Bullock.  Dorian is a badass.  I have hopes for Green, but we really blew it not pulling the trigger on Bane.

(04-06-2022, 12:23 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]It is a lot easier to do a two factor search the old fashioned way (stack rank one criteria and run your finger down the column for the other criteria noting those who qualify).  The EPM site doesn’t have a search function that I’m aware of, so three criteria would be even more manual.

In my book, we may have the Bullock replacement on the roster already.  Assuming we have 3 ball handlers still and THJ coming off the bench, Green would be a starter in name only and might still be a 12-15 minute guy given the mouths that need to be fed.  IF there was a Reggie for Holmes deal, THJ joining a guard and Powell and one of Maxi/Bertans makes sense.

Holmes/Powell
DFS/Klertans
Green/THJ
Brunson/SD
Luka/SD

Maybe the outgoing is Maxi instead Reggie and Bertans is the backup PF?  Maybe it is just Green as the outgoing and you insert Reggie where Green is slotted in the list above.  It feels like we have an extra PF and an extra wing that in some combination could be used for an upgrade.  I really have no idea who we would use.

My hope is that Green can eventually replace Bullock, but based on my criteria he has a long way to go offensively (19%).

I struggle with the Powell/Bertans bench frontcourt, especially if you are going to pair them up with THJ.  I realize defense is not as important in the second unit, but that group is going to struggle a lot.  I lean towards having Maxi and Green in the second unit to hold down the defense, and let Powell and the two ball handlers handle the majority of the offensive load.  I realize this doesn't leave much room for Bertans, but I think he can be worked in when needed.  Dorian can play some 3 if necessary.

(04-06-2022, 12:04 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I realize this is all arbitrary, but I would suggest reasonable criteria for a Bullock upgrade would be 70 percentile in O-EPM, D-EPM and 3 point shooting (Bullock is 50-60 in all three categories).  My guess is that would open up a bigger list.

I'm curious how you did that search?  Don't see a simple way to do that.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

They have a nice distribution table. It's not super reliable but a rough and dirty way to get our list would be if we take 0.0 to be the 50th percentile, then +4.0 EPM would be our standard for 100%, and we essentially are looking for guys around +1.0 to +2.0 in O-EPM, and +1.0 to +1.5 in D-EPM. We can then add cutoffs for what we want in terms of efficiency and volume for shooting (league average this year 35.8%).  

I'm going to use error bars of 0.25+/- just because of variance and how rough this method is. 

Using this method some guys stand out:
Jaylen Brown
Mike Conley
Jrue Holiday
Patrick Beverley
Isaiah Hartenstein (but low volume threes)
DFS 
Immanuel Quickley
FVV
Klay Thompson
Desmond Bane
Deandre Ayton (though the 3pt volume isn't there)
Kyle Lowry
Paul George

Some guys that just barely miss the cut off 
WCJr (33% 3pt shooting, would qualify otherwise)
Nic Batum (poor O-EPM numbers)
Caleb Martin (poor O-EPM numbers)
Myles Turner (33% 3pt shooting, would qualify otherwise)
Dillon Brooks (poor 3pt shooting)
Brunson (poor D-EPM numbers)
Jerami Grant (poor O-EPM numbers).
Dejounte Murray (33% 3pt shooting)
John Collins (just barely misses the D-EPM cutoff)
Gary Trent Jr (just barely misses the D-EPM cutoff)
Christian Wood (D-EPM lets him down)

I tried to forego the mega superstars (+3.5 O-EPM). There are probably more guys but this is a good start.


EDIT: It seems like yall work way faster than me and already got the list lol.

(04-06-2022, 12:43 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]My hope is that Green can eventually replace Bullock, but based on my criteria he has a long way to go offensively (19%).

I struggle with the Powell/Bertans bench frontcourt, especially if you are going to pair them up with THJ.  I realize defense is not as important in the second unit, but that group is going to struggle a lot.  I lean towards having Maxi and Green in the second unit to hold down the defense, and let Powell and the two ball handlers handle the majority of the offensive load.  I realize this doesn't leave much room for Bertans, but I think he can be worked in when needed.  Dorian can play some 3 if necessary.

Ya, I think in any event if the team Dan put up there is who we come out of FA with and Green is ready to take a step up into a larger role, THJ's minutes are gonna take a pretty severe cut. We need more defensive players IMO for Kidd's system to work the best. I just wonder how that affects THJ's value/mentality should that happen. It's probably better for him if we trade him this offseason if there are any takers and it doesn't cost us to do so (hopefully I'm wrong on my valuation of him around the league).

The depth chart makes so much more sense if we quit trying to force Luka into the PG spot.

1. Jalen/Spencer
2. Reggie/Josh
3. Luka/Davis
4. Dorian/Chriss
5. Dwight/Maxi

Tim can fit in as a 2 or 3, so there’s lots of flexibility next year. (All 1s can play 2, all 2s can play 3, all 3s can play 4, all 4s can play 5.)

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1511544443500912654



https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1511565018877370369

I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings, my friends, but the Mavs may be in for one helluva tough dogfight tomorrow night!

From February 24 through March 9, Portland went on a 6-game losing streak.  They broke that losing streak on March 12 at home versus the Washington Wizards, who were on the second night of a ROAD/ROAD back-to-back (in the middle of a 4-game West Coast road trip).

Then ...

Portland lost their next four games [March 14-20], before beating the powerhouse Pistons on March 21 in Detroit.

Then ...

From March 23 through April 5, Portland lost eight consecutive games (their current active streak).

So ... 

The Trail Blazers have lost 8 in a row, 12 out of their last 13, and 18 out of their last 20.

Portland plays their fourth consecutive road game in New Orleans tonight.

Portland then plays the second game of a ROAD/ROAD back-to-back in Dallas tomorrow night.  That will be the final game of Portland's current 5-game road trip.

Furthermore ...

Check out the following OFFICIAL injury report:

Portland Trail Blazers:

Bledsoe, Eric Out Injury/Illness - Left Achilles; tendinopathy

Hart, Josh Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee; patellar tendinopathy

Ingles, Joe Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee; recovery

Lillard, Damian Out Injury/Illness - Core; muscle recovery

Little, Nassir Out Injury/Illness - Left Shoulder; recovery

Nurkic, Jusuf Out Injury/Illness - Left Foot; plantar fasciitis

Simons, Anfernee Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee; patellar tendinopathy

Watford, Trendon Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee; bone contusion

Williams, Brandon Available Injury/Illness - Left Quad; contusion

Winslow, Justise Out Injury/Illness - Left Calf; inflammation  

(How does an NBA team list nine players as "OUT"?)

*********************************************************************************************************

Portland is 7 games behind San Antonio (so they might not have too much incentive to win), and they are 7½ games ahead of Houston (so they might not even be gleeful tankers).

In conclusion ...

BEWARE!!!!!!!!!!

8-9 days before Luka plays again.  He can't eat too many donuts between now and then can he?

In 13 seasons as Mavs head coach, RC won 51+ games only 2 times. 

In 1 season as Mavs head coach, Kidd has won 51+ games 1 time. Congrats to Kidd.

Luka loses his 70k game check with that tech.

(04-09-2022, 10:28 AM)Hypermav Wrote: [ -> ]Luka loses his 70k game check with that tech.

Maybe that’ll help him pay more attention to the game as opposed to the refs?

(04-08-2022, 10:14 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]In 13 seasons as Mavs head coach, RC won 51+ games only 2 times. 

In 1 season as Mavs head coach, Kidd has won 51+ games 1 time. Congrats to Kidd.

This is weird! I definitely would have assumed RC had broken the 51 barrier more than twice. It's even more remarkable that RC only did it twice in his first 3 years and then never did it again.

(04-09-2022, 10:40 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe that’ll help him pay more attention to the game as opposed to the refs?

He played 64 games so far this year and has 16 techs.  So every 4th game he gets a tech.  He gets 7 of them in the playoffs.  Assume the Mavs make the finals and play all 7 games series.  In theory, he will receive his 7th tech in game 7 of the finals.  Which would avoid a suspension.

(04-09-2022, 01:55 PM)Hypermav Wrote: [ -> ]He played 64 games so far this year and has 16 techs.  So every 4th game he gets a tech.  He gets 7 of them in the playoffs.  Assume the Mavs make the finals and play all 7 games series.  In theory, he will receive his 7th tech in game 7 of the finals.  Which would avoid a suspension.

Unless Tony Brothers refs game 6.

Well, he now only has 15, so all my math is false.  Tony Brothers will be waiting for him for sure.

(04-09-2022, 06:19 PM)Hypermav Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/MFollowill/status/1512919349153124360?s=20&t=mNQMG4Tu7DI2n1YO9wAxUw

What would be funny is if they sit him anyway.