(05-09-2021, 08:52 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Looking at his and THJ stats and I am getting scared what his next contract is going to look like 
Indeed.
Hopefully that tweet is agent driven. I can't see Duncan Robinson getting 20mm a year seriously from my point of view.
(05-09-2021, 08:52 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Looking at his and THJ stats and I am getting scared what his next contract is going to look like
I mean, without doing a deep dive on the stats, I'm under the impression that these past two years have been an
improvement for THJ, as in his
best seasons, and seasons in which he has contributed to winning. I really don't think he's on a collision course with a pay cut this summer. Don't get me wrong - I'd LOVE getting him back on the cheap.
(05-10-2021, 03:08 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I mean, without doing a deep dive on the stats, I'm under the impression that these past two years have been an improvement for THJ, as in his best seasons, and seasons in which he has contributed to winning. I really don't think he's on a collision course with a pay cut this summer. Don't get me wrong - I'd LOVE getting him back on the cheap.
The only thing that would factor in lowering his total salary is his age. He is 29 so a four year contract can bring him past his prime. I would guess something around 60/4 would be realistic market price (not claiming Mavs will be the ones paying it). Depending of course on the play-offs. That will give the final grade.
(05-10-2021, 12:34 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I can't see Duncan Robinson getting 20mm a year seriously from my point of view.
There is big hype around him while THJ is sort of under the radar. Robinson is 27 so he is not exactly a youngster with huge upside remaining. He is an excellent shooter, no doubt. I would love to have him. But when I look at the way THJ has been overall (not just this excellent stretch in May) and the way Robinson is overall, I am not sure if Robinson is really better.
Neither Ryen Russillo or Bill Simmons thinks Marcus Smart will be on the Celtics next year. Simmons thinks he's lost a step or two and guards have regularly blown by him for 2 straight years. I have to admit, I've never really been much of a fan of his. I know some people love him, but I think they like the imagined version Marcus Smart more than the actual real life Marcus Smart that you actually get. He's basically like inverse KP where he's so bad on one side of the floor it negates the impact he has on the side of the floor he's good on, but really I think he's overrated as a defender on the whole ... he is so up in his head with his own little beefs and sub plots that he loses track of what is actually going on in the actual game that is being played around him.
(05-10-2021, 08:35 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]Neither Ryen Russillo or Bill Simmons thinks Marcus Smart will be on the Celtics next year. I have to admit, I've never really been much of a fan of his. I know some people love him, but I think they like the imagined version Marcus Smart more than the actual real life Marcus Smart that you actually get. He's basically like inverse KP where he's so bad on one side of the floor it negates the impact he has on the side of the floor he's good on, but really I think he's overrated as a defender on the whole ... he is so up in his head with his own little beefs and sub plots that he loses track of what is actually going on in the actual game that is being played around him.
Disagree. Don´t think he is terrible on offense. Solid ballhandler with a borderline elite ast/tov ratio on solid volume. Over four assists for the last five seasons. 5.7 this season. He shouldn´t be the primary ballhandler but as 2nd or 3rd guy he is pretty good. Scoring is obviously a weakness. Not a good finsher in the paint, not a midrange shooter. Good FTAr. Super streaky 3-point shooter. Overall volume and efficiency are in the JRich range. On/off numbers of the last five seasons have him as a net positive on offense.
Defense is a another story. Over the last 3-5 seasons best defensive guard is probably between him and Holiday. They have it all. Can play lockdown on ball defense. Can switch onto bigger players. Play elite help defense.
I think the opposite is true. People focus on the few boneheaded plays he has every now and then and ignore his overall impact. My only problem with him are the injury concerns. He tends to miss at least 10-15 games a season. Not because he has a weakness or nagging injury. It´s about his style of play. Really physical, all out effort, diving after every lose ball.
Absolutely love this breakdown. Summary. Smart is the best defensive guard in the league. Impact wise he isn´t close to elite bigs like Gobert or Adebayo. Love the focus on Smarts fundamentals. The way he uses his hands and angles his body to get around screens. The way he absorbs contact against bigger guys.
(05-10-2021, 09:07 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Disagree. Don´t think he is terrible on offense. Solid ballhandler with a borderline elite ast/tov ratio on solid volume. Over four assists for the last five seasons. 5.7 this season. He shouldn´t be the primary ballhandler but as 2nd or 3rd guy he is pretty good. Scoring is obviously a weakness. Not a good finsher in the paint, not a midrange shooter. Good FTAr. Super streaky 3-point shooter. Overall volume and efficiency are in the JRich range. On/off numbers of the last five seasons have him as a net positive on offense.
Defense is a another story. Over the last 3-5 seasons best defensive guard is probably between him and Holiday. They have it all. Can play lockdown on ball defense. Can switch onto bigger players. Play elite help defense.
I think the opposite is true. People focus on the few boneheaded plays he has every now and then and ignore his overall impact. My only problem with him are the injury concerns. He tends to miss at least 10-15 games a season. Not because he has a weakness or nagging injury. It´s about his style of play. Really physical, all out effort, diving after every lose ball.
Absolutely love this breakdown. Summary. Smart is the best defensive guard in the league. Impact wise he isn´t close to elite bigs like Gobert or Adebayo. Love the focus on Smarts fundamentals. The way he uses his hands and angles his body to get around screens. The way he absorbs contact against bigger guys.
To add to this, which is true as well, this team needs a guy that pays attention to subplots in the game as well as creates subplots. It’s telling that it took till the Brooklyn game for DFS to be so upset as to call everyone out to get up the same way for Cleveland. That would be every game with Smart. The players may not like him doing it...up until a guy like Marcus Morris comes in and punks Luka and he steps in with that fire. That’s when they will understand and appreciate him.
Smart would drive Luka insane with his hero ball within 5 games. Guy hits 2 shots and thinks he's Kobe.
(05-10-2021, 09:38 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]To add to this, which is true as well, this team needs a guy that pays attention to subplots in the game as well as creates subplots. It’s telling that it took till the Brooklyn game for DFS to be so upset as to call everyone out to get up the same way for Cleveland. That would be every game with Smart. The players may not like him doing it...up until a guy like Marcus Morris comes in and punks Luka and he steps in with that fire. That’s when they will understand and appreciate him.
Basically the Jimmy Butler story. Couldn´t get along with teammates like Towns and Wiggins. Called them out because they played lazy and did not show the kind of work ethic he expects from himself and all of his teammates. Ends up in Miami. All guys are all in on winning and rally around him. From locker room cancer to undisputed and beloved leader within a few month.
Minnesota:Only playoff appearence since 2004 with him. More tanking without him.
Miami: Make the finals in his first full season.
(05-10-2021, 09:40 AM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]Smart would drive Luka insane with his hero ball within 5 games. Guy hits 2 shots and thinks he's Kobe.
It's not even confined to offense either. He's lost a step (or two) on defense. He'll try to pick up guards at the midcourt or body up people a million miles from the hoop because he wants to show off what an alpha male he is, and now ball handlers just blow right by him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UseXGS34sE
Rusillo breaks down an entire end of game sequence here at 89:50
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6OpsguU...2e7a4d4816
There is no workable Smart trade imho.
They won´t do Smart/Brown for Porzingis after Brown´s explosion. We won´t do Smart + prospects + picks for Porzingis and if they offer us Smart straight up for Richardson, Powell, Kleber or DFS, then you know he´s damaged goods.
(05-10-2021, 09:40 AM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]Smart would drive Luka insane with his hero ball within 5 games. Guy hits 2 shots and thinks he's Kobe.
That's what Bill Simmons said recently on his podcast. Would take anything he says about the Celtics like gospel.
That said, I'd love to have Marcus Smart. But Rule #1 kicks unfortunately.
(05-10-2021, 10:44 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]They won´t do Smart/Brown for Porzingis after Brown´s explosion.
Are we sure they won't do that? Celtics are in the play-in. They've looked baaaaad. Brown and Tatum are great but they don't work
together. I remember Bill Simmons saying watching the Celtics this year is basically watching Tatum and Brown take turns going 1 on 1 for 48 minutes and yeah they'll get a combined 55 points on 50% shooting but the rest of the team is frozen out.
(05-10-2021, 12:35 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I remember Bill Simmons saying watching the Celtics this year is basically watching Tatum and Brown take turns going 1 on 1 for 48 minutes and yeah they'll get a combined 55 points on 50% shooting but the rest of the team is frozen out.
If Celtics would be puting Brown on the table, I don't need Smart
(05-10-2021, 12:35 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]That's what Bill Simmons said recently on his podcast. Would take anything he says about the Celtics like gospel.
That said, I'd love to have Marcus Smart. But Rule #1 kicks unfortunately.
Are we sure they won't do that? Celtics are in the play-in. They've looked baaaaad. Brown and Tatum are great but they don't work together. I remember Bill Simmons saying watching the Celtics this year is basically watching Tatum and Brown take turns going 1 on 1 for 48 minutes and yeah they'll get a combined 55 points on 50% shooting but the rest of the team is frozen out.
The only Mavs-Celtics trade possibility I see is KP for Kemba straight up.
(05-10-2021, 12:59 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]If Celtics would be puting Brown on the table, I don't need Smart
Pisses me off to this day, that he signed that early (non-max) extension. He would have been my #1 target in RFA 2020.
He is the perfect partner for Luka.
(05-10-2021, 12:34 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Indeed.
Hopefully that tweet is agent driven. I can't see Duncan Robinson getting 20mm a year seriously from my point of view.
I've really wondered if Mavs might not go all in on Duncan Robinson push, because he's done really well Real Plus Minus compared to where conventional wisdom would rank him .. particularly on defense.
(05-10-2021, 01:30 PM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]The only Mavs-Celtics trade possibility I see is KP for Kemba straight up.
Nah. But I could see KP for Brown straight-up (or with inexpensive side players to balance salaries if necessary). Similar age. Their #2 for our #2. We get a terrific 2-way guard to complement Luka, and they get the center they've needed for years. A classic trade for "fit".
Yeah, I don't see any way the Celtics would do that. Jaylen Brown has emerged as one of the Top 5 two way wings in the NBA, and KP is now damaged goods on a max salary. The only way I see the Mavs getting out of the KP deal is if they take an equally bad contract, or just bribe a team to take him with 1st round picks the way that Philly did with Horford. I'm pretty sure the Mavs will just run it back with KP for another year because they're not going to want to do either (unless they think his knee is a Chandler Parsons microfracture timebomb waiting to explode).
(05-10-2021, 03:22 PM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, I don't see any way the Celtics would do that. Jaylen Brown has emerged as one of the Top 5 two way wings in the NBA, and KP is now damaged goods on a max salary. The only way I see the Mavs getting out of the KP deal is if they take an equally bad contract, or just bribe a team to take him with 1st round picks the way that Philly did with Horford. I'm pretty sure the Mavs will just run it back with KP for another year because they're not going to want to do either (unless they think his knee is a Chandler Parsons microfracture timebomb waiting to explode).
Just to balance out this post, the Celtics would be happy we didn’t ask for picks in the proposed Tatum/Brown for Porz/Powell trade and beg us to make the deal.