(01-25-2021, 10:38 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I think as the pick was approaching, they decided to pick either Bane or Terry, whichever was there. There has to be a reason Memphis traded into the pick right before them, so it's not crazy to imagine they had reason to believe the Mavs would draft him.
In hindsight, maybe they should've been singularly focused on Bane there and taken measures to prevent Memphis from getting him.
There's a good argument that Terry shouldn't have been drafted at all just based on his first 10 games. Not saying the Terry we see today will be anything like the Terry in 2 years, but I haven't been impressed with him at all and am walking away with the impression that he can't make it and will be out of the league soon.
So I really hope the Mavs weren't mulling over who to choose between Bane and Terry, given how they are each producing at this level. In my mind I think Donnie/MBT mocked Terry to go somewhere in the 20's before the 2nd round and didn't really do an in-depth scouting on him because they felt he'd be gone anyways by the time they picked and you can only focus on so many prospects. Because of that they focused solely on Bane and locked in on him. Then Memphis comes in and ruins the plan, which causes the Mavs to look hard at what's left on the board. They probably didn't like much of what was left in the pool and didn't want to reach at 31, so they picked the 1 guy that fell in their own mocks because they thought he was a 1st round talent and that alone justified the pick. Plus taking into account that Donnie had a Curry trade in the pipeline, taking a supposed sharpshooter from a high class school also fit in line with the plans.
Of course this is all conjecture and just my own read of the situation. None of this can be true and perhaps the Mavs truly liked Green/Terry the most from their class and those were their guys from the get-go. Just from what Donnie said on draft night and seeing how the Mavs are approaching drafts the last 2 years this scenario makes the most sense to me.
(01-25-2021, 10:45 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]In my mind I think Donnie/MBT mocked Terry to go somewhere in the 20's before the 2nd round and didn't really do an in-depth scouting on him because they felt he'd be gone anyways by the time they picked and you can only focus on so many prospects.
Well, neither of us know what happened for sure, but Terry made a bunch of comments about how many different meetings he had with the Mavs and how well they went. He talked about some tests they gave him, etc.
My feeling is that they liked him a lot. You might be right about them being surprised he was there. I'm just saying that if they ONLY wanted Bane, that Boston pick was just as available to them as it was to Memphis. Those things aren't secret. I'm sure they knew that pick was being shopped and that there was good chance someone would trade up for Bane.
Hell, for all we know they PREFERRED Terry, and I'm sure that's what they'd say if asked. I just have a feeling they assessed the situation and thought "well, one of them is going to make it to 31, so let's stand pat."
(01-25-2021, 10:34 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I think the Mavs really wanted Bane at 31 and he was snatched away at the last moment and they panicked.
??? How can you say that? No one here has any idea what was really happening and this is pure speculation. It would be extremelly unproffessional to not have a draft board... A big team of guys is preparing for draft for months. I can't imagine they don't have a plan ready for vast majority of possible scenarios.
(01-25-2021, 10:45 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]There's a good argument that Terry shouldn't have been drafted at all just based on his first 10 games.
Every single draft expert had Terry as a first round pick. I think it is extremely unfair to judge after 51 scattered minutes. I can totally agree Terry didn't look good, but I certainly give him more time before a final judgement.
Yeah, it's premature to judge any of the rookies at this point, even the ones who are playing well.
It seems pretty clear that Haliburton, Wiseman and Ball are all going to be pretty good, but we don't even know that for sure.
I still like Terry on his intelligence, alone. He's just too smart not to figure this out. Imo, Green is the most likely of the three picks to be a complete bust. But, it's all just speculation.
(01-25-2021, 10:50 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Well, neither of us know what happened for sure, but Terry made a bunch of comments about how many different meetings he had with the Mavs and how well they went. He talked about some tests they gave him, etc.
Well for sure we can never know what happened. I did see that stuff about the tests the Mavs gave and the interviews. I do think however that isn't anything special and is just the process the Mavs go about scouting a prospect. I mean heck Carlisle still gives the team tests on the playbook.
I just think that Terry as a prospect went against the archetype of player's they've been linked to. To be fair there hasn't been much of a sample size and most of my feelings are stemming from how they approached the 2018 draft. How they approached the 2020 draft I feel was much the same as there was THE guy that was a bit out of their reach that they tried to swing for, except they couldn't get him here. I think Bane and Bey are both similar to Brunson as they had clear defined roles on their college team where they stayed at for multiple years and were integral to their success.
Terry meanwhile was a 1 and done at Stanford that had a solid season. Just felt different. But like you said, we can never truly know unless Donnie comes out and details their thought process.
(01-25-2021, 11:04 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I just think that Terry as a prospect went against the archetype of player's they've been linked to.
I do agree with this.
Bane would've fit the Richardson, Johnson, Green, Bey, Hinton off-season like a redundantly well-fitting glove.
(01-25-2021, 10:58 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Every single draft expert had Terry as a first round pick. I think it is extremely unfair to judge after 51 scattered minutes. I can totally agree Terry didn't look good, but I certainly give him more time before a final judgement.
What I'm saying is that if Terry were a more complete player, he'd garner more than 51 minutes. S.Bey/Achiuwa/Maxey/Quickley/Pritchard/Bane were all taken from 19-30. All have played significant minutes on their team because they are good enough to command it.
Terry hasn't and he hasn't shown much of anything so far in his limited garbage time minutes to think he'll improve. Does that mean I think he
won't improve? Of course not. He's very young. His career is just beginning. It'd be idiotic to think that the Terry we see now will forever be the Terry for the rest of his career just based on a 10 game sample size.
But we also have to acknowledge that Terry has looked downright scared in his limited minutes. Coming into the draft he was supposed to be one the best shooters, and so far that part of his game is non-existent. He just does not want to shoot a 3. Further, his handle as a guard is sloppy. There have been numerous occasions where he's just dribbled the ball off his foot or gotten ripped. Finally his passing game isn't bad, but because he can't really move around the perimeter due to subpar dribbling, and he doesn't seem interested in shooting, all of his passes are simple ones that don't really dictate the offense.
But I said in my OG post that Terry has time and I don't expect him to stay this bad. But as of right now today, Terry is deadweight. And it's a bit disheartening seeing how incomplete of a player he is given how many players who were picked before him are performing on good teams.
(01-25-2021, 10:58 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]??? How can you say that? No one here has any idea what was really happening and this is pure speculation. It would be extremelly unproffessional to not have a draft board... A big team of guys is preparing for draft for months. I can't imagine they don't have a plan ready for vast majority of possible scenarios.
(01-25-2021, 10:45 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Of course this is all conjecture and just my own read of the situation. None of this can be true and perhaps the Mavs truly liked Green/Terry the most from their class and those were their guys from the get-go. Just from what Donnie said on draft night and seeing how the Mavs are approaching drafts the last 2 years this scenario makes the most sense to me.
You can finish reading my post btw.
(01-25-2021, 11:17 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]What I'm saying is that if Terry were a more complete player, he'd garner more than 51 minutes. S.Bey/Achiuwa/Maxey/Quickley/Pritchard/Bane were all taken from 19-30. All have played significant minutes on their team because they are good enough to command it.
Oooooh...careful. I think there are some assumptions made here that don't hold water.
The Mavericks are DEEP. Not deep with great players, but VERY deep with ok-good ones. Many of those guys were drafted by teams who really NEEDED them to play right away. The fact that the Mavs are in the position (leaving Covid aside) not to have to play their rookies is a good thing, imo. I am definitely not someone who thinks throwing young talent into the fire is always the best way to go.
Maybe Achiuwa would've played behind WCS while KP was out to start the season, or maybe he'd have even gotten first crack at the minutes WCS has been playing. Other than that, I don't think a single one of those guys would've seen the floor outside of garbage time here before the Covid situation happened.
(01-25-2021, 11:24 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]The Mavericks are DEEP. Not deep with great players, but VERY deep with ok-good ones.
Let me pose a question, does it matter the quality of player if the Mavs are deep? We can answer in a couple of ways. If depth is all they're after then no. Depth is depth and having serviceable players at every position is what we're going for. But shouldn't we prefer the Mavs be as deep as possible with as
good of players as possible?
I'm of the school of thought that BPA is always the right move. You can always pivot your plans. If you have too many good players that's the easiest problem to fix.
Just because these other draftees went to teams that invariably needed them to perform right away doesn't really matter to me. What matters to me is that the prospects are
actually performing in these opportunities, and are performing well. I would prefer to have the problem of deciding whether to start Achuwa or WCS if I had the choice, rather than the choice being made for me already because the rookies aren't there yet.
(01-25-2021, 11:24 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Other than that, I don't think a single one of those guys would've seen the floor outside of garbage time here before the Covid situation happened.
And that's entirely possible. RC is a notorious hard-ass when it comes to rookies getting a big role on good teams. Are you trying to say that these other prospects are only performing as well as they are because they're given the opportunity to perform, versus their individual talent?
The only way to figure that out is to put it to the test. Put Terry on a team like the 76ers and put Maxey here and see what happens. They were both projected in the mid 20's on draft night. I believe Maxey would get minutes regardless of the COVID situation. Unfortunately I don't think Philly is really up for this experiment.
(01-25-2021, 11:02 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]it's premature to judge any of the rookies at this point, even the ones who are playing well.
100% agree with this. HOWEVER, sometimes you know what you have right off the bat and so the reality could be with SOME of these guys that we already know that they will succeed or bust....but it is hard to say which of those will be which.
Some other random comments:
1) So much of evaluating a player also involves background and personality investigation. Someone like RJ Hampton has a ton of athletic talent and ability, but we knew the shooting was an issue AND he had the look of being a diva. I only mocked him as high as I did because I could not take a look behind the veil like the Mavs could. It seemed that maybe he had cleaned up his shooting (but with no game film and only workout videos that is impossible to know as a fan) and so I mocked him high with a giant asterisk.
2) Tyrell just turned 20 (along with Green) and Bane is more than 2 years older than him. SO MUCH maturation and growth happens from ages 18-22 that it is generally a horrible idea to compare guys who have a couple year difference in that range. Bane has gotten off to an incredible hot start, but I would still evaluate Tyrell above him personally. I might be dead wrong, but I am not willing to jump to conclusions based on what I have seen so far, especially since we all knew Bane would come in a basically finished product and Tyrell would come in incredibly raw and immature.
3) Every team situation and philosophy is so different in regard to development of youth and rookies. It is so hard to make any helpful comparisons. Some guys will thrive on some teams while those same guys might totally fail in other team situations. Just too many variables to even mention.
(01-25-2021, 11:39 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I'm of the school of thought that BPA is always the right move.
Totally with you.
I simply don't believe any of those players you mentioned are more ready (now) to play than those who would be ahead of them here.
(01-25-2021, 11:39 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Are you trying to say that these other prospects are only performing as well as they are because they're given the opportunity to perform, versus their individual talent?
No, I'm trying to say that on THIS team, those guys aren't as good as the vets who would be ahead of them (pre-covid) with the possible exception of Precious.
(01-25-2021, 11:17 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]But we also have to acknowledge that Terry has looked downright scared in his limited minutes. Coming into the draft he was supposed to be one the best shooters, and so far that part of his game is non-existent. He just does not want to shoot a 3. Further, his handle as a guard is sloppy. There have been numerous occasions where he's just dribbled the ball off his foot or gotten ripped. Finally his passing game isn't bad, but because he can't really move around the perimeter due to subpar dribbling, and he doesn't seem interested in shooting, all of his passes are simple ones that don't really dictate the offense.
from the limited information I have, I would say his problem is that he is not really a PG but SG. This was even said in the scouting reports. Yet the Mavs are strictly playing him as PG. Perhaps because he is too small to survive as a SG. However, if you already have a big PG, you can perhaps survive with a small SG... Anycase, transition from SG to PG is very difficult, especially combined with the difficult transition from college to NBA basketball.
(01-25-2021, 11:17 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]You can finish reading my post btw.
Yeah, sorry. In the post I was replying too you haven't provided that explanation yet.
(01-25-2021, 11:17 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Terry has looked downright scared in his limited minutes.
The problem is none of us know what the coaching staff has posted on his locker asking him to do and what to focus on. The Mavs may be asking him to be more gun shy and to work on getting the team into the flow of the offense.
I do think he has looked hesitant to shoot at times, but I personally haven't seen that as "fear." Frankly I wish Luka would be as hesitant to shoot from three as Tyrell has been...... Just saying.
Please don't judge the rookies by their first season(and absolutely not by their first few games...). If that was the case then the league would look like that now:
2013/2014 first team all rookie
MCW(ROY), Trey Burke, THJ, Oladipo and Mason Plumlee. So are they all better players than: Otto Porter Jr, Giannis, Adams, Gobert, Schroeder, Olynyk, KCP, who were all drafted in 2013
OK let's look at the 2014/2015
1st team: Wiggins, Mirotić, Noel, Elfrid Payton, Jordan Clarkson. Are they better than let's say: Aaron Gordon, Smart, Randle, Lavine, Warren, Nurkić, Capella, Harris, Grant,...
2015/2016 was quite OK with Booker, KP, KAT, Jokić(drafted in 2014) and Okafor
2016/2017
1st team: Brogdon, Šarić, Embiid(was drafted in 2014), Hield and ... WILLY HERNANGOMEZ!!!!. That team would eat: Murray, Brown, Ingram, Sabonis, Levert, Murray, Zubac,...
There are very few rookies that play great(Luka level or near that), and many of those who weren't the best end up looking great in a couple of years.
Seth Curry played a total of 21 minutes in his first 2 seasons. Gobert averaged 2.3 points in his first season. Giannis averaged under 7 points per game in his first season(does that look like a MVP?). Heck DSJ looked better than Fox in his rookie season and look at them now.
Please don't judge a plyer by their first season. 2nd season is usually the one that shows us what a player is capable. Players need time to adjust to the game, to the life,... For some guys it's easier. And there is also a great factor that doesn't show up until later and that's the players will/determination to get better.
(01-25-2021, 12:02 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I do think he has looked hesitant to shoot at times, but I personally haven't seen that as "fear." Frankly I wish Luka would be as hesitant to shoot from three as Tyrell has been.
I hope you're right about this.
I do think there's validity to your point that we have no clue how they're asking him to play. Even with that perspective, however, it's tough for me to imagine them asking him not to pull the trigger on shots that are WIDE OPEN.
(01-25-2021, 12:04 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]it's tough for me to imagine them asking him not to pull the trigger on shots that are WIDE OPEN.
With his small wingspan "wide open" is very different for him than other players. I remember him not pulling the trigger on some shots this year where I thought he had a window, but I also remember guys closing out on him hard. He has probably had his jumper blocked a bunch in practice and so is adjusting to WHEN and HOW he can get his shot off cleanly. The speed and athleticism is SO different from college to NBA and for a small wingspan guy I think it takes longer to adjust because suddenly he is working at a big disadvantage he didn't once face.
(01-25-2021, 12:11 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]He has probably had his jumper blocked a bunch in practice and so is adjusting to WHEN and HOW he can get his shot off cleanly. The speed and athleticism is SO different from college to NBA and for a small wingspan guy I think it takes longer to adjust because suddenly he is working at a big disadvantage he didn't once face.
Yeah, this is fair, and probably accurate.
I'm really just scratching my head about that one play from the last game when he had enough time to get a rapid covid test before passing up the shot. It was bizarre, but in fairness, I can only remember just the one play like that.
(01-25-2021, 12:11 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]With his small wingspan "wide open" is very different for him than other players.
This is what I'm thinking about him. His arms are kinda freakishly short. Watching him try to lay it up in traffic I think to myself "Is he (Shawn Marion) short arming that?" Same with the jump shot. He's not as open as people think he is. This is gonna be a tough hurdle to overcome, not insurmountable, but it'll take some time, possibly time we won't want to invest in.
(01-25-2021, 12:53 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]His arms are kinda freakishly short. Watching him try to lay it up in traffic I think to myself "Is he (Shawn Marion) short arming that?" Same with the jump shot. He's not as open as people think he is. This is gonna be a tough hurdle to overcome, not insurmountable, but it'll take some time, possibly time we won't want to invest in.
Exactly. I genuinely think his short wingspan is THE reason he fell to the 2nd round.