MavsBoard

^if DSJ signs here does that make it 5?

(08-12-2021, 01:32 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/...5131618307

I know correlation is not causation, but it's interesting that you could make the case that those taxpayers are the front runners for next season's NBA finals. Some might say you get what you pay for.

(08-11-2021, 04:54 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Current Over/Under Win Totals for 2021-22:



BRK -- 55.5
MIL -- 54.5
LAL -- 52.5
UTA -- 52.5
PHI -- 51.5
PHX -- 51.5
DAL -- 48.5
GSW -- 48.5
MIA -- 48.5
DEN -- 47.5
ATL -- 47.5
BOS -- 47.5
POR -- 44.5
LAC -- 44.5
IND -- 43.5
MEM -- 41
NYK -- 40.5
CHI -- 39.5
NOP -- 38.5
TOR -- 37.5
CHO -- 36.5
MIN -- 34.5
SAC -- 34.5
WAS -- 34.5
CLE -- 28.5
SAS -- 28.5
DET -- 25.5
HOU -- 25.5
ORL -- 24
OKC -- 23.5

 This is all conjecture at this point.  Some teams will surprise and others will disappoint.

(08-13-2021, 02:14 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: [ -> ]This is all conjecture at this point

It's a betting line from Vegas.

(08-13-2021, 02:17 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]It's a betting line from Vegas.

Take the Over

(08-13-2021, 02:17 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]It's a betting line from Vegas.

Surprisingly a lot of parity at the top. Seems Vegas thinks teams will simply manage players and regular seasons nowadays. No more allout every game to win 60+ games. All about player development, health and fitness. No Carlisling.

(08-13-2021, 02:17 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]It's a betting line from Vegas.

Yeah, I know.  But how many teams will reach or miss those projections?   Does Vegas think the Lakers will win 53 games? I don't.

(08-13-2021, 02:31 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: [ -> ]Does Vegas think the Lakers will win 53 games? I don't.

Vegas sets lines in order to get equal numbers of bets on both sides. 

The lines they set tend to be REALLY accurate with one major exception:

When they set lines for "fan favorites" they tend to set them a little higher because they know they will get lots of bets from "ignorant fans." Again their goal is equal number of bets on BOTH sides of the number. I think the Lakers will actually be worse than 52.5, probably closer to 50.5.

(08-13-2021, 02:31 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, I know.  But how many teams will reach or miss those projections?   Does Vegas think the Lakers will win 53 games? I don't.

If the odds makers are any good (which they are) then approximately half the teams will come in under and half the teams will come in over with most teams being quite close. (Although I also agree with Kammrath that there is some weighting for high-profile teams like LA or Brooklyn).

(08-12-2021, 04:42 PM)Moviemavguy Wrote: [ -> ]Yep, I mean let's face it, vaccines will basically be mandated everywhere soon enough.  Rightfully so too.

If you live in China, this makes perfect sense. Appears we do to a lot of people.

(08-13-2021, 03:35 PM)luka_skywalker_77 Wrote: [ -> ]If you live in China, this makes perfect sense. Appears we do to a lot of people.

Typical far right mention of China as their only means to an argument over basically anything these days.  

I'm on the let's get rid of Covid side of things.  And so are the Nets and soon the rest of the NBA/World. 

https://twitter.com/BrooklynNets/status/...3583226886

(08-13-2021, 03:02 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Vegas sets lines in order to get equal numbers of bets on both sides. 

The lines they set tend to be REALLY accurate with one major exception: When they set lines for "fan favorites" they tend to set them a little higher because they know they will get lots of bets from "ignorant fans." Again their goal is equal number of bets on BOTH sides of the number. 

For perspective, here is last season O/U as of Dec 22 (right as the season opened), compared to the results. Quite a few were right on target (or reasonably close), but in doing the comparison, I was surprised that more than half turned out to be mediocre-to-awful guesses in comparison to the results.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/12/2020...recap.html

Teams whose results were within 2.5 games of the oddsmakers O/U line

• Brooklyn (45.5 wins):  ACTUAL 48
  

• Chicago Bulls (29.5 wins): ACTUAL 31
  
• Cleveland Cavaliers (23.5 wins): ACTUAL 22
  
• Detroit Pistons (22.5 wins): ACTUAL 20
  

• Washington Wizards (34.5 wins): ACTUAL 34
  

• Denver Nuggets (44.5 wins): ACTUAL 47
  
• Portland Trail Blazers (41.5 wins): ACTUAL 42
  
• Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): ACTUAL 22
  

• Los Angeles Clippers (47.5 wins): ACTUAL 47
  

• Golden State Warriors (38.5 wins): ACTUAL 39
  
• Sacramento Kings (29.5 wins): ACTUAL 31
  

• Dallas Mavericks (43.5 wins): ACTUAL 42
  
• San Antonio Spurs (30.5 wins): ACTUAL 33
  

Misses by more than 2.5 games

[*]Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): ACTUAL 36
[*]Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): ACTUAL 49
[*]Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): ACTUAL 27
[*]New York Knicks (22.5 wins): ACTUAL 41
[*]Milwaukee Bucks (51.5 wins): ACTUAL 46
[*]Indiana Pacers (39.5 wins): ACTUAL 34
[*]Miami Heat (44.5 wins): ACTUAL 40
[*]Atlanta Hawks (36.5 wins): ACTUAL 41
[*]Orlando Magic (31.5 wins): ACTUAL 21
[*]Charlotte Hornets (26.5 wins): ACTUAL 33
[*]Utah Jazz (42.5 wins): ACTUAL 52
[*]Minnesota Timberwolves (29.5 wins): ACTUAL 23
[*]Los Angeles Lakers (48.5 wins): ACTUAL 42
[*]Phoenix Suns (40.5 wins): ACTUAL 51
[*]New Orleans Pelicans (36.5 wins): ACTUAL 31
[*]Houston Rockets (35.5 wins): ACTUAL 17
[*]Memphis Grizzlies (32.5 wins): ACTUAL 38

(08-13-2021, 03:02 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Vegas sets lines in order to get equal numbers of bets on both sides. 

The lines they set tend to be REALLY accurate with one major exception:

When they set lines for "fan favorites" they tend to set them a little higher because they know they will get lots of bets from "ignorant fans." Again their goal is equal number of bets on BOTH sides of the number. I think the Lakers will actually be worse than 52.5, probably closer to 50.5.

Thanks for the explanation.

(08-13-2021, 02:29 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Take the Over

I would take the over.. but is it possible Vegas is also factoring in delta?

Ok, help me out with this one.   Seems strange. 


https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1427061342016610304

(08-15-2021, 07:20 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Ok, help me out with this one.   Seems strange. 


https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1427061342016610304

Not sure, but to kick off the speculation, both Rondo and Beverley seem like the type who would be disgruntled by how they were shelved in the playoffs, and probably the type you don't want in your locker room while they're disgruntled.

(08-15-2021, 07:20 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Ok, help me out with this one.   Seems strange. 


https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1427061342016610304

Jalen Rose has a saying about the Clippers guard problem; It goes something like, 

‘if you combine all their guards into one, they would have the point guard they need.’