(04-21-2022, 01:51 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think you provided a great answer, basically in line with my thinking. The only difference - if you are trading for him, he should be starting. Mavs can't afford to have another 17 mil per year player coming from the bench. My ideal trade for him would be THJ (going to another team as Clippers are looking for an upgrade of Morris). And I agree that we would still need to bring in a center.
I think Morris is good enough to start. But does push 1 of JB/Bullock/DFS to the bench. Bullock seems like the obvious choice, but the Mavs are 26-11 when Bullock starts, vs. 18-13 when he comes off the bench. I keep saying it, but good things happen when Bullock is in the game. Maybe Morris exceeds that though?
But we're in agreement here. Morris+starting caliber center while retaining JB is a fantastic offseason for the Mavs.
(04-21-2022, 12:35 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Deliberately cheat? That's strong. I think Foster might have an inherent negative bias against CP3, which is enough on it's own to prevent him from reffing any game, but the NBA doesn't see it that way and it's hard to prove without a thorough audit of every call Foster has made to look for inconsistencies.
In any case Foster is a terrible ref. The fact that his name is so well known is proof enough the NBA should ban him, but his union prevents such use of power.
I will say I find that quite incredible that the chance of CP3 losing that many games is 4.1e-5. The Mega Millions chance is still a couple of order of magnitudes difference though!
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/l0Iydl9zWjbLvLv6U/giphy.gif)
Thank you. However Jommybone has a more mathematical, scientific view. I was just pointing out what I read, until it was obliterated and blown to smithereens......
(04-20-2022, 01:47 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]Trae Young horrible again last game. I was watching Hawks last 3 games, and Trae has been beyond awful in as many as 11 out of those 12 quarters. A pure one-way player with absolutely zero defense, playing really soft in these more physical games. Had 10 TO last game, but it's more that he is unable to manipulate defenses as a PG that is the troubling part, and lack of defense. He is a fantastic one on one attacking force in iso situations. However, once he is trapped in difficult situations with good help defense that knows how to make complex movements and switches, he doesn't have the skills to manipulate the defenses to commit to wrong places and movements and doesn't anticipate those movements by the defense to exploit the holes that will appear. The team needs to carry him for too many stretches. He is able to however explode at any moment with his offensive game, and this series is far from over as Atlanta is a great team overall, but the worrying part is Trae's omnipresent inconsistency that has been there since he entered the league. You never know what you get.
You just dissected Trae like the proverbial high school science class frog. Good job !!
(04-20-2022, 10:25 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: [ -> ]Won't be a walk in the park if they get the Bucks. Still the defending champs. But that changes if Middleton misses significant time with a strained MCL.
I think a healthy Bucks team would be a slight favorite against the Celtics. But the Celtics home court is such a factor right now that having a potential game 7 in Boston is huge.
Reports are the Suns have no timetable for Booker's return. If DAL can put UTA away, then the path to WCF is a little less steep. Especially if DAL gets Luka back.
No timetable means not automatically that he'll miss an extended time. Currently Booker is expected to miss a couple of games, but he's not even ruled out for the later games of the first round. Obviously nobody wants give away any concrete information during playoff times (similar to the Doncic situation on our team).
(04-20-2022, 10:15 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: [ -> ]Here's a crazy stat. Chris Paul is 0-14 in games officiated by Scott Foster. Foster was the lead ref in the Suns loss to the Pels. I wonder what the Mavs record is in Tony Brother's officiated games?
(04-20-2022, 11:27 PM)Jommybone Wrote: [ -> ]Is not crazy. Is not coincidence. 0.006% chance if random.
(04-20-2022, 11:34 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: [ -> ]71-51, since the 1996-97 season.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/ref...to99r.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/tea...erees.html
(04-21-2022, 12:21 AM)Hogmelon Wrote: [ -> ]I assume you [Jommybone] arrived at your 0.006% figure by taking 50% to the fourteenth power.
1/16384 = 0.0061035%
What if I told you that Chris Paul has a career winning percentage of 65% in the 1155 regular season games he has played?
[Chris Paul also has a career winning percentage of 50.38% (66-65) in playoff games.]
1 - 0.65 = 0.35
35% to the fourteenth power is approximately 0.000041395%
0.0061035% = 147.44 X 0.000041395% ... so I suppose the situation might be even "crazier" than the first estimate would suggest.
Someone [not I] won the Mega Millions jackpot on April 12.
Someone else [again, not I] won the Mega Millions jackpot on April 15.
(The probability of winning the Mega Millions jackpot is 1 in 302575350, which is approximately 0.00000030496%.)
Do you believe that Scott Foster deliberately cheats for the purpose of screwing Chris Paul?
Yes? No? Maybe?
(04-21-2022, 12:35 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Deliberately cheat? That's strong. I think Foster might have an inherent negative bias against CP3, which is enough on it's own to prevent him from reffing any game, but the NBA doesn't see it that way and it's hard to prove without a thorough audit of every call Foster has made to look for inconsistencies.
In any case Foster is a terrible ref. The fact that his name is so well known is proof enough the NBA should ban him, but his union prevents such use of power.
I will say I find that quite incredible that the chance of CP3 losing that many games is 4.1e-5. The Mega Millions chance is still a couple of order of magnitudes difference though!
(04-21-2022, 02:20 AM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: [ -> ]Thank you. However Jommybone has a more mathematical, scientific view. I was just pointing out what I read, until it was obliterated and blown to smithereens......
WTF??? I don't understand your defensiveness, @"HoosierDaddyKid"
Jommybone did not "obliterate" or "blow to smithereens" anything you wrote.
I did not "obliterate" or "blow to smithereens" anything you wrote.
Nobody "obliterated" or "blew to smithereens" anything you wrote.
You posted two statements (about Scott Foster and Chris Paul), and asked one question (about Tony Brothers and the Dallas Mavericks).
Jommybone apparently assumed your statements about Scott Foster and Chris Paul were 100% accurate, and so did I.
I gave the most straightforward answer possible to your question (see above):
Q: "I wonder what the Mavs record is in Tony Brother's officiated games?"
A: "71-51, since the 1996-97 season." [with two relevant links to basketball-reference dot com]
Then, I attempted to
BOLSTER Jommybone's mathematical analysis by pointing out that Chris Paul has lost only 35% of the regular season games he has played (rather than the 50% assumed initially).
I never "obliterated" or "blew to smithereens"
or even disagreed with anything asserted by either HoosierDaddyKid or Jommybone, and I honestly don't understand
WHY some people are so quick to take offense at every word I post.
Seriously, ...
good fucking grief.
And ... (back to the math) ...
I would be very interested in Chris Paul's stats in those fourteen losses officiated by Scott Foster.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlatio..._causation
(04-21-2022, 01:51 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think you provided a great answer, basically in line with my thinking. The only difference - if you are trading for him, he should be starting. Mavs can't afford to have another 17 mil per year player coming from the bench. My ideal trade for him would be THJ (going to another team as Clippers are looking for an upgrade of Morris). And I agree that we would still need to bring in a center.
Luka, Din
JB, Green
DFS, Bullock
Morris, Chriss
Powell, Maxi
Marcus Morris sucks. His defense has tailed off significantly the last two years, he is 33, and he is a dick. I have no idea why we would have interest in him. Much rather have Maxi, especially at half the cost.
(04-21-2022, 09:12 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Marcus Morris sucks. His defense has tailed off significantly the last two years, he is 33, and he is a dick. I have no idea why we would have interest in him. Much rather have Maxi, especially at half the cost.
I mean he might be a dick, but he can still score as a 4th option quite consistently. Are you saying full-stop you don't ever want Morris? As a hypothetical, what if he was given as a salary dump?
I understand the vitriol for him. He went out of his way to try and injure Luka, and he (along with his brother) is as dirty as it gets for a basketball player. BUT we've been wanting that kind of player for a while. Pat Bev being a noted target on the board when he was a free agent.
His individual defense is average but he fits very well within a scheme. There's a reason why Ty Lue plays him 40+ mins in the playoffs. Can Maxi even play multiple games at 40+ mins?
(04-21-2022, 09:52 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I mean he might be a dick, but he can still score as a 4th option quite consistently. Are you saying full-stop you don't ever want Morris? As a hypothetical, what if he was given as a salary dump?
I understand the vitriol for him. He went out of his way to try and injure Luka, and he (along with his brother) is as dirty as it gets for a basketball player. BUT we've been wanting that kind of player for a while. Pat Bev being a noted target on the board when he was a free agent.
His individual defense is average but he fits very well within a scheme. There's a reason why Ty Lue plays him 40+ mins in the playoffs. Can Maxi even play multiple games at 40+ mins?
I'm not saying full stop I don't want him, but I would not take him on that contract as a salary dump. He is getting like 17 mil for the next two years when he turns 35. He fleeced the Clips because they had no other way to replace him. I don't think there was any way he gets that contract in the open market.
He brings toughness and maybe fit, but I think he is fallen to below average defensively. His offensive efficiency has fallen off as well. He gests 32 minutes in playoff games because their two stars are out and they need to generate offense somehow.
Maxi can't play those minutes, but he is more valuable when he is on the court than Morris is (sans that really bad slump he hopefully has broken out of). I'm not that excited about a guy who can play 32 or 40 minutes a game if they are not quality minutes.
(04-21-2022, 11:11 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not saying full stop I don't want him, but I would not take him on that contract as a salary dump. He is getting like 17 mil for the next two years when he turns 35. He fleeced the Clips because they had no other way to replace him. I don't think there was any way he gets that contract in the open market.
He brings toughness and maybe fit, but I think he is fallen to below average defensively. His offensive efficiency has fallen off as well. He gests 32 minutes in playoff games because their two stars are out and they need to generate offense somehow.
Maxi can't play those minutes, but he is more valuable when he is on the court than Morris is (sans that really bad slump he hopefully has broken out of). I'm not that excited about a guy who can play 32 or 40 minutes a game if they are not quality minutes.
For me it is about alternatives. If he is available for THJ, who is not a good fit on this team based on the other players, why not pull a trigger? The reason could be because you have something better on the table. But what if you don't? You rather keep THJ and play it back with a big hole on the big wing spot? You use Morris for one year and then he is expiring. The only expirings Mavs have in 2023 are Dinwiddie and Bullock.
As for efficiency - he was very efficient last season, scoring 13 ppg. I think the injuries of their stars forced Clippers to create through him more, which pretty naturally lead to decreased efficiency. As for Maxi, he is played exclusively at center. Morris would not be replacing Maxi. He would be relieving DFS, Bullock and probably taking Bertans minutes.
(04-21-2022, 09:52 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I mean he might be a dick, but he can still score as a 4th option quite consistently. Are you saying full-stop you don't ever want Morris? As a hypothetical, what if he was given as a salary dump?
I understand the vitriol for him. He went out of his way to try and injure Luka, and he (along with his brother) is as dirty as it gets for a basketball player. BUT we've been wanting that kind of player for a while. Pat Bev being a noted target on the board when he was a free agent.
His individual defense is average but he fits very well within a scheme. There's a reason why Ty Lue plays him 40+ mins in the playoffs. Can Maxi even play multiple games at 40+ mins?
You put me on a team with Kawhi, PG13, Covington and Batum and my team defense looks good.
(04-21-2022, 11:40 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting part on Portland and Grant. Portland thought they will have 2 lottery picks, but New Orleans qualifying for play-off ruined that plan as the pick went elsewhere due to protections. They are not enthusiastic to trade their own and the only remaining lottery pick.
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Same happened to the Pacers, who lost the Cavs pick, because they failed to qualify for the real play-offs.
(04-21-2022, 11:26 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]For me it is about alternatives. If he is available for THJ, who is not a good fit on this team based on the other players, why not pull a trigger? The reason could be because you have something better on the table. But what if you don't? You rather keep THJ and play it back with a big hole on the big wing spot? You use Morris for one year and then he is expiring. The only expirings Mavs have in 2023 are Dinwiddie and Bullock.
As for efficiency - he was very efficient last season, scoring 13 ppg. I think the injuries of their stars forced Clippers to create through him more, which pretty naturally lead to decreased efficiency. As for Maxi, he is played exclusively at center. Morris would not be replacing Maxi. He would be relieving DFS, Bullock and probably taking Bertans minutes.
I don't think we have a big wing hole. I think we have a center hole, causing Maxi to play more minutes at that position than he probably should. Shore up the center position, and now we have DFS, Maxi and Bertans at the big wing.
I think I would rather have THJ. He is the better player right now and a better dude, and his contract might actually have some value in a season. If they do absolutely nothing with the roster, then Morris may be a better fit, but I don't think that's a likely scenario. If our only roster move this coming offseason is to swap THJ for Morris, I would be very disappointed.
Why do you hate to see it. If Phoenix loses the series that is GREAT for the Mavs.
I hate to see this for Chris Paul. He's snake-bit on luck concerning himself or one of their top players where ever he's been. If Book has to miss more than 2-3 games, he'll potentially miss another chance at a Finals appearance. They can still win the series vs the Pelicans without him, but it's going to take Ayton, Paul himself, or Bridges to pull it out. I think they need to feature Ayton more on offense.
(04-21-2022, 03:14 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: [ -> ]I hate to see this for Chris Paul. He's snake-bit on luck concerning himself or one of their top players where ever he's been. If Book has to miss more than 2-3 games, he'll potentially miss another chance at a Finals appearance. They can still win the series vs the Pelicans without him, but it's going to take Ayton, Paul himself, or Bridges to pull it out. I think they need to feature Ayton more on offense.
2021:
Lakers - AD injury
Nuggets - Murray injury
Clippers - Kawhi injury
All that and blew a 2-0 lead in the Finals.
I admittedly would never feel bad for CP. Going all the way back to the first nut punch on Julius Hodge, CP is just Grayson Allen without all the hate.....and with a HOF resumé!
(04-20-2022, 08:47 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]It is probably the one sports city I hate root against for some reason.
I can't root for any team in Philly