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538 in shambles. Their RAPTOR metric had the Celtics as 83% favorites to win the title back on May 30th

(06-17-2022, 07:24 AM)MrGoat Wrote: [ -> ]538 in shambles. Their RAPTOR metric had the Celtics as 83% favorites to win the title back on May 30th

Maybe. Or maybe the 17% happened. 

I personally think RAPTOR needs some tweaking, but it isn't that far off.

(06-17-2022, 07:32 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Or maybe the 17% happened. 

Yes. 

People frequently don't understand percentage projections. The 17% happens.

It is hard to win when your best player shoots 35% in the paint (less than 50% at the rim). 

I also think RAPTOR massively overrates Tatum. No chance he is the second best player in the NBA.

(06-17-2022, 07:37 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]It is hard to win when your best player shoots 35% in the paint (less than 50% at the rim). 

I also think RAPTOR massively overrates Tatum. No chance he is the second best player in the NBA.

Ding ding ding

(06-17-2022, 07:36 AM)Winter Wrote: [ -> ]Yes. 

People frequently don't understand percentage projections. The 17% happens.

Oh, if you watched that series it never was 17%. If you were to run that series 100 times Golden State would win it a lot more than 17 times.

(06-17-2022, 08:02 AM)MrGoat Wrote: [ -> ]Oh, if you watched that series it never was 17%. If you were to run that series 100 times Golden State would win it a lot more than 17 times.

Yeah, it wasn't that close. Boston stole game 1 with absurd 4th quarter shooting, game 3 was really the only time they were clearly the better team. Their inexperience and lack of true PG showed and would do them in a lot more than 17 times out of 100.

(06-17-2022, 11:49 AM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, it wasn't that close. Boston stole game 1 with absurd 4th quarter shooting, game 3 was really the only time they were clearly the better team. Their inexperience and lack of true PG showed and would do them in a lot more than 17 times out of 100.

 

I could not see Boston winning 17 out of 100. They have the Defence.
But the defence only gets you just to the point, where you can win it with offence.

I don´t know exactly how Raptor works, but I think it projects as if every game is played equal. And the Dubs were kinda coasting and saving their stars and Boston was full steam all the time.

(06-17-2022, 11:54 AM)Mapka Wrote: [ -> ] 

I could not see Boston winning 17 out of 100. They have the Defence.
But the defence only gets you just to the point, where you can win it with offence.

And their offense is pretty much what we do. I go, then you go.