(10-15-2022, 11:40 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]"The Warriors literally do not care about the luxury tax." .... While I agree with your general premise above (that the Warriors revenues make the tax less onerous to them), respectfully I don't think the specific statement here is accurate at all.
I'd lean to it being more accurate than not. At very least, the tax is less of a deterrent than what it is intended to be.
(10-15-2022, 03:15 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Utah released Jared Butler which is a little suprising.
utah never really gave him a chance to show his wares.
(10-15-2022, 11:53 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Yes.
Good news KL, I think this means Boban is available for the Mavs to sign as well!
(10-15-2022, 11:40 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]"The Warriors literally do not care about the luxury tax." .... While I agree with your general premise above (that the Warriors revenues make the tax less onerous to them), respectfully I don't think the specific statement here is accurate at all.
I would say they do care - at a certain level. And I would wager that the numbers we were envisioning earlier (HALF A BILLION in tax, and total player pay incl tax of about $750 MILLION) were FAR beyond their ability to stomach.
The growth in franchise value? That impresses on paper, but it isn't really the game-changer it seems, when the ownership isn't selling the team. They expect to also make the annual bottom line (revenues minus cost to generate it) work too, as a general rule, in order to allow the owners to personally profit year-to-year from their business's success (the huge revenue streams) AND keep the franchise. While they do want the franchise value to grow, they also want to be kings now, not merely create huge asset value for some heir to reap some day.
To that point, I do think that the AW contract at less-than-max will help to that end, but that they still will opt to shrink more.
While there is some truth to what you are saying I still don't think they care about the tax as much as people think. They know that right now they have a window to win. They know that more titles brings more money. The craziest part is that even with expenses they are still making a profit.
There is too much money in the bay area going toward the Warriors for that not to be the case. Current projection for team salary plus luxury tax for this coming season puts GS at $483 million total holding at 12 players signed. With them pulling in revenue last season at just over $700 million it will likely put them at $700-$800 million in revenue this season. There is a good chance they hit $500 million in payroll and taxes this season. They look like they are going for titles to close out Steph's career. Lacob's group bought the team in 2010 for $450 million. It's now worth $5.6 Billion. Pretty good investment I would say.
As far as the Mavs competing with the Warriors financially they just can't. Sure, Dallas can still sell out the arena and all that. But, the fans in Dallas can't rabidly fork out thousands to go see games. In most cases it would be cheaper for me to fly to Dallas and watch them play GS. I would end up with better seats too. If I were to go I'd likely just drive to Sacramento and watch the Mavs there. Those tickets are cheaper also.
The Warriors are just tied in with all of that Silicon Valley money. It's similar to NY and LA. I'm sure Cuban can spend more than he is. But, not like the Warriors can. He wouldn't be able to keep the team for long if he did. I think he figured that out after spending so much early on as an owner.
Kevin Porter jr signs a 4 year 82 million extension with the Rockets. Only first year is fully guaranteed.
(10-16-2022, 08:33 PM)audiosway Wrote: [ -> ]While there is some truth to what you are saying I still don't think they care about the tax as much as people think. .
1 I would agree that they are less sensitive to having to pay tax than most other teams, and see it TO A CERTAIN LEVEL as "spending money to make money." My pushback is about the idea that it's not even a consideration at all.
2 Keep in mind that because the gross revenues exceed player payroll, that doesn't mean they will be profitable. There are many other expenses.
3 Your numbers are way off regarding
this season -- you're saying they will have a "player payroll + tax" that's nearing $500M and that's way high for this season. But their actual numbers are still huge and support the point that they are working at a different level.
Last season GS had a player payroll of 175 and paid tax of 170.
This season their payroll so far is 190 and tax tracking to be 170.
In 2023-24 it's adding up so far to be about 220 with tax of about 300.
But -- that only tells us what it looks like so far, but doesn't tell us if those are numbers the W's will work to lower significantly. Do they find those numbers workable, or are they merely where they find themselves on paper at the moment? We won't know the answer to that until June 2024.
Rough math for next season:
Sure to be on the roster: Steph, Klay, Poole, Wiggins, Looney = ~$166m
Player Options: Dray, DiVincenzo = ~$32M
Team Options: Wiseman, Kuminga, Moody = ~$21M
This years draft pick: Baldwin Jr. ~$2M
Assumptions: Wiseman gets traded ($12M), Kuminga/Moody/Baldwin Jr are on the team (~$11m), DiVencenzo opts in ($4.7M).
Biggest Question Mark: Dray ($27m). He'll be 33 next season. No idea what to make of his situation. He's important but he wants a max contract or large raise. Would someone else give him a contract that would make opting out of his $27M worthwhile? I have my doubts but I've been way off with contract numbers of late.
I guess it depends how they define significant and while their payroll might not get to $220M, I bet it still hovers around $200M even if Dray is gone.
(10-17-2022, 01:06 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I guess it depends how they define significant and while their payroll might not get to $220M, I bet it still hovers around $200M even if Dray is gone.
Yeah, that's my point -- that GS, like every team, does try to limit payroll and tax to a certain level that they find acceptable.
Interestingly, a 2023-24 payroll that's in that 200-or-so range, which you think is feasible for them to achieve, fits right into the ballpark of what they've been doing. If we plug in 202M as the number ...
Last season - payroll 175 and tax 170.
This season (so far) - payroll 190 and tax 170
2023-24 (projection) - payroll 202 and tax 170
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