MavsBoard

(10-02-2023, 01:11 AM)MarkAguirreWrathofGod Wrote: [ -> ]Idk, Jrue looked like he lost a step and Dame had maybe his best season. I think it was a great gamble. Renewed energy in the locker room and happy Giannis. What they really need is for Marjon Beauchamp or Andre Jackson Jr. to be their Josh Green. That way, they have Dame covered with 4 excellent to great defenders surrounding him, assuming Middleton isn’t cooked.

Good point. I expect Beauchamp to join the regular rotation. He's very talented and this is his opportunity. Middleton is far from cooked. He just suffered from a few injuries these last few seasons. I expect him to recover ?%

Yeah, that Green extension isn't getting done for Grant Williams money.  Guess who Green's agent's are.  Yep, same agency.



Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn

San Antonio Spurs G Devin Vassell has agreed on a five-year, $146 million contract extension, Andrew Morrison, Rich Beda and Mitch Nathan of @CAA_Basketball tell ESPN. Vassell lands rookie scale extension as part of 2020 Draft class and solidifies himself as a Spurs cornerstone.

(10-02-2023, 04:12 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, that Green extension isn't getting done for Grant Williams money.  Guess who Green's agent's are.  Yep, same agency.



Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn

San Antonio Spurs G Devin Vassell has agreed on a five-year, $146 million contract extension, Andrew Morrison, Rich Beda and Mitch Nathan of @CAA_Basketball tell ESPN. Vassell lands rookie scale extension as part of 2020 Draft class and solidifies himself as a Spurs cornerstone.

So we agree that this is a massive overpay right...? 

When Green averages more than 12ppg for a season we can start to be worried about him crossing more than 20M a year. I don't see what team on this planet will throw 4/100 at Green, even if he has a career year. Even still, the Mavs can match, which they should do under any circumstances.

(10-02-2023, 04:12 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, that Green extension isn't getting done for Grant Williams money.  Guess who Green's agent's are.  Yep, same agency.



Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn

San Antonio Spurs G Devin Vassell has agreed on a five-year, $146 million contract extension, Andrew Morrison, Rich Beda and Mitch Nathan of @CAA_Basketball tell ESPN. Vassell lands rookie scale extension as part of 2020 Draft class and solidifies himself as a Spurs cornerstone.

I'm a Vassell fan but...wow.

(10-02-2023, 04:27 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]So we agree that this is a massive overpay right...? 

When Green averages more than 12ppg for a season we can start to be worried about him crossing more than 20M a year. I don't see what team on this planet will throw 4/100 at Green, even if he has a career year. Even still, the Mavs can match, which they should do under any circumstances.

First, yes, it feels like a massive overpay.  The scary thing is Josh wouldn't be that different a player at 15 shots a game.

Here is what Eric Pincus predicted in an article for BR:

"Closest comp: The obvious comp is teammate Keldon Johnson, who extended with the Spurs last summer at $20-$21.5 million (16.2-17.4 percent of the cap). But Johnson's salary descends each year, which could be the kind of structure the team looks for with Vassell (which would be $23-$24.7 million starting salary, based on Johnson's percentages)."

"Expectation: The Spurs and Vassell should find a workable extension, but one that starts at or below $20 million and descends annually."


Keith Smith predicted 5 year for $115mm, so a $23mm average.  Pincus predicts 'north of $13mm" for Josh's extension.  Smith predicts 4 years for $70mm ($17.5mm average).  So, in both cases, Josh is predicted to be less, but to be in the range of 2/3's to 3/4's of what Vassell got.  If that holds in the real world, 2/3's of Vassell is $19mm.  3/4's of Vassell is $22mm.

That's rich for me in an extension.  I have every confidence he'll get that range next summer, but I think he has to take a discount from that in an extension (though Vassell certainly didn't).  I've said the extension range for Josh is $14mm-$16mm.  I'd probably be more surprised at $12mm than I would be at $17.5mm...expecially since both Green and Vassell are CAA clients.  I do think some of this "two rookies might start" thing is a negotiating ploy...just like Stein hearing that Green 'looks really good'.

(10-02-2023, 05:42 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]First, yes, it feels like a massive overpay.  The scary thing is Josh wouldn't be that different a player at 15 shots a game.

Here is what Eric Pincus predicted in an article for BR:

"Closest comp: The obvious comp is teammate Keldon Johnson, who extended with the Spurs last summer at $20-$21.5 million (16.2-17.4 percent of the cap). But Johnson's salary descends each year, which could be the kind of structure the team looks for with Vassell (which would be $23-$24.7 million starting salary, based on Johnson's percentages)."

"Expectation: The Spurs and Vassell should find a workable extension, but one that starts at or below $20 million and descends annually."


Keith Smith predicted 5 year for $115mm, so a $23mm average.  Pincus predicts 'north of $13mm" for Josh's extension.  Smith predicts 4 years for $70mm ($17.5mm average).  So, in both cases, Josh is predicted to be less, but to be in the range of 2/3's to 3/4's of what Vassell got.  If that holds in the real world, 2/3's of Vassell is $19mm.  3/4's of Vassell is $22mm.

That's rich for me in an extension.  I have every confidence he'll get that range next summer, but I think he has to take a discount from that in an extension (though Vassell certainly didn't).  I've said the extension range for Josh is $14mm-$16mm.  I'd probably be more surprised at $12mm than I would be at $17.5mm...expecially since both Green and Vassell are CAA clients.  I do think some of this "two rookies might start" thing is a negotiating ploy...just like Stein hearing that Green 'looks really good'.

If thats where we are at, then you don't extend him and tell everyone you will match whatever they offer next offseason and hope for the best.  There is no value to signing him to an extension significantly more than the MLE.

(10-02-2023, 07:22 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]If thats where we are at, then you don't extend him and tell everyone you will match whatever they offer next offseason and hope for the best.  There is no value to signing him to an extension significantly more than the MLE.

Or, you trade him at the deadline.

(10-02-2023, 07:22 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]If thats where we are at, then you don't extend him and tell everyone you will match whatever they offer next offseason and hope for the best.  There is no value to signing him to an extension significantly more than the MLE.

He's going to get an extension for more than the MLE.  There will be a lot more cap space in the summer of 2024 than there was this past summer.  Athletic and willing defensive players who hit 40 percent from 3 are very valuable in the NBA.  Especially when they are young and project to improve.  

Teams like the Magic, Pistons, Rockets and the Pacers will be competing to add talented young players.  Each will have a lot of money next summer.  You've had some really intelligent posts about how expensive it is to add players in free agency.  It's exactly why the Mavericks have struggled to succeed since 2011.  Allowing Josh Green to make it to free agency exposes us to the bidding war of free agency.  There will be a team willing to offer him more than $20 million next off-season.  Too many teams will have over $50 million to spend.  Teams become desperate and make foolish decisions as the talent dries up.  As an example, the Mavericks gave Harrison Barnes a max deal in 2016-  the Mavs were desperate to add some talent at any price. 

The worst case scenario isn't overpaying Josh Green.  The worst case scenario is Josh walking next off-season because the Mavericks once again didn't feel like paying market price.  We can't keep letting talent walk away.  We don't have the assets to patch holes through trades.  Mark Cuban will have to pay the market price for talent or we'll never contend.  We would be wasting Luka's prime.  I don't think anyone wants that.

(10-02-2023, 05:42 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]The scary thing is Josh wouldn't be that different a player at 15 shots a game.

I buy all of your logic, and I can even get there on the above, sure. 

But, what I don't see is the source of your confidence that he'll actually GET a role big enough to lead anywhere close to what you're projecting for his season. It wouldn't shock me, but it feels like we're assuming, and the dude has not been able to maintain a consistent hold on a rotation spot for an entire season yet. Are we absolutely sure Kidd sees him the way you do? If he does, I don't know that we've seen proof of that yet. 

Don't get me wrong, I agree with you in terms of the player's positives, potential and especially his synergetic fit into what this team needs. I just honestly can't swear that he's going to get an increased role. I think he will, but we just don't know.

Jimmy Butler after the Heat missed out on Lillard...

(10-02-2023, 09:53 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]But, what I don't see is the source of your confidence that he'll actually GET a role big enough to lead anywhere close to what you're projecting for his season. It wouldn't shock me, but it feels like we're assuming, and the dude has not been able to maintain a consistent hold on a rotation spot for an entire season yet.  

I've posted some version of this several times.  People are all the time saying Josh's game is based on confidence.  If that is true, his confidence is based on minutes.  When he gets them, he's a different player.  So much so that his PER 36 numbers are basically worthless.  Below I have split Josh's PER 36 between games where he played 25 minutes or more vs games he played 25 minutes or less.  I picked 25 because his average minutes in these 33 games comes to 31 minutes...the same as Vassell averaged in his 38 games last season.

                Josh PER 36 w>25 Mins       Josh PER 36 w<25 Mins        
PTS           14.4                                   6.83
FGA           10.1                                   4.8
REB            4.2                                    3.2
AST            2.9                                    1.0
FG%          .551                                  .489
3P%          .418                                  .362

He's not the same guy.  When he gets minutes, he puts up shots at double the rate and is more efficient from the field and from distance.  When he gets under 25 minutes, he's the deer in the headlights that so many anchor their opinions to.  The low minutes version of Josh pollutes both his PER 36 numbers and the impression many of us have of what he is.  Josh doesn't need to leap...he needs to replicate what he already does when he plays 25 minutes or more.  He just needs to get those minutes every night.  14/4/3 on fantastic splits with great D is exactly what we want. 

Vassel's PER 36 numbers are better from a scoring standpoint.  He's 21/4/4 but he shoots worse.  His FG% is .439 compared to .551 for Josh.  His 3% is .387 compared to .418 for Josh.  I know, Josh's shooting benefits from playing with better personnel.  But, if you take that position, you have to also say Vassell would never get the same shot attempts here.  He puts up 18 shots per 36.  But if Josh did get 18 shots instead of 10 at a 1.42 PP Shot Attempt, he would be at 25.6 points per game instead of 21.5 for Vassell.  BTW, 1.42 Points Per Shot Attempt for a 22 year old guard?  Are you kidding me?  

BTW, this improvement with more minutes and more shot attempts between low minute Josh and high minute Josh isn't normal.  Most players actually get less efficient as they put up more shots.  He's a gem sitting right in front of us.  I can't believe more people don't see this.

Reggie Bullock signs with Houston? Weird. Is that more than the minimum or was that just the best chance for him to get playing time? Houston has a lot of bodies expecting minutes. Could be tough for a team that probably isn't going to be good.

We will see if the moves the Mavs made this offseason were correct, but I am so glad the direction they took. The accumulation of assets is just so important. Identifying talent. Just looking back just a few years ago, the Mavs signed THJ who they have been trying to trade for two years, signed Bullock who had very little interest across the league and traded a first for Wood who signed for the minimum. Just really poor all the way around. Hopefully we don't see these type of moves again anytime soon.

What an odd answer in regards to the status of an extension for Siakam.

When asked why a player of Siakam’s caliber hasn’t even been offered an extension, Ujiri parroted the party line, seemingly throwing his star under the bus.

“We do believe in Pascal,” Ujiri said. “We do believe that a lot of our players didn’t play the right way last year. I said it: We were selfish. I’m not running away from that. We were selfish, and we didn’t play the right way. So let us see it when we play the right way.”

(10-03-2023, 04:32 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I've posted some version of this several times.  People are all the time saying Josh's game is based on confidence.  If that is true, his confidence is based on minutes.  When he gets them, he's a different player.  So much so that his PER 36 numbers are basically worthless.  Below I have split Josh's PER 36 between games where he played 25 minutes or more vs games he played 25 minutes or less.  I picked 25 because his average minutes in these 33 games comes to 31 minutes...the same as Vassell averaged in his 38 games last season.

                Josh PER 36 w>25 Mins       Josh PER 36 w<25 Mins        
PTS           14.4                                   6.83
FGA           10.1                                   4.8
REB            4.2                                    3.2
AST            2.9                                    1.0
FG%          .551                                  .489
3P%          .418                                  .362

He's not the same guy.  When he gets minutes, he puts up shots at double the rate and is more efficient from the field and from distance.  When he gets under 25 minutes, he's the deer in the headlights that so many anchor their opinions to.  The low minutes version of Josh pollutes both his PER 36 numbers and the impression many of us have of what he is.  Josh doesn't need to leap...he needs to replicate what he already does when he plays 25 minutes or more.  He just needs to get those minutes every night.  14/4/3 on fantastic splits with great D is exactly what we want. 

Vassel's PER 36 numbers are better from a scoring standpoint.  He's 21/4/4 but he shoots worse.  His FG% is .439 compared to .551 for Josh.  His 3% is .387 compared to .418 for Josh.  I know, Josh's shooting benefits from playing with better personnel.  But, if you take that position, you have to also say Vassell would never get the same shot attempts here.  He puts up 18 shots per 36.  But if Josh did get 18 shots instead of 10 at a 1.42 PP Shot Attempt, he would be at 25.6 points per game instead of 21.5 for Vassell.  BTW, 1.42 Points Per Shot Attempt for a 22 year old guard?  Are you kidding me?  

BTW, this improvement with more minutes and more shot attempts between low minute Josh and high minute Josh isn't normal.  Most players actually get less efficient as they put up more shots.  He's a gem sitting right in front of us.  I can't believe more people don't see this.

A couple of questions. How many of those +25 minutes are in games without Luka and Kyrie? We all saw he was great as the lead man when stars were out. Definitely looked much different. He will have to learn and get his shots in games with both stars on the court to maximize his potential.

Is it possible his >25 minutes games are when he is playing well and his <25 are when he is not? Did he play less because others had to play or did he play less because he just wasn't particularly impactful in those games? Basically saying, that Green has some good games where he plays a lot and some not so great ones where he doesn't. 

I think answers to these questions really shed the light on who Green really is. We have all watched games and we all saw "passive" Green a lot of times. Green that is just invisible (passive), who doesn't get the ball or even doesn't shoot it always when he could. I don't think you can just take these kind of stats as a proof that Green is great but just needs minutes, without providing the context to why he played less or more. 

I don't think you can simply ignore low number of shots taken and discard it as a consequence of low minutes. We saw and could compare how Hardy plays related to Green. He has zero problems taking his shots even with both stars on the court. Green and Hardy took same amount of shots on average. Green played 25 minutes on average, Hardy played 15 minutes on average. Hardaway played 30 minutes per game and took 12 shots per game, almost twice as much as Green. Green is much closer to guys like Bullock, Dorian or Maxi regarding the number of shots. With the difference, that those guys are really limited in what they can do on the court, know their limits and play within them. Green can do much more than those guys, but there are other reasons why he doesn't take so many shots. I hope he can grow past that and keep his efficiency.

Having guys who are good defenders and can hit an open shot with good efficiency is great. They are worth around MLE. Guys that are paid more are the ones who can do more than just take an open shot here and there. So far, Green only showed flashes he can do more. In order to be worth more, he needs to be consistent. Taking more shots and keeping efficiency. So based on that, Green is worth MLE based on what he showed. In order to get paid more, he needs to show more. One can of course believe, he will be able to overcome whatever barriers he has preventing him to be better. If you believe that, you pay him more. If he reaches his potential, great. If not, you have a bad contract on your hands. 

Or, you can offer max MLE level money. If he doesn't accept the deal, you have the restricted status working for you. If he starts playing like a great two way wing, you can always pay him accordingly. The gamble in this case of course is, that he might take a 15 mil offer now, but gets a 25 mil offer in the summer, while being valued at 20 mil. But somehow, I do prefer this kind of gamble. Personally, I am just not convinced, he can reach a 15+ value valuation.

(10-03-2023, 08:07 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]What an odd answer in regards to the status of an extension for Siakam.

When asked why a player of Siakam’s caliber hasn’t even been offered an extension, Ujiri parroted the party line, seemingly throwing his star under the bus.

“We do believe in Pascal,” Ujiri said. “We do believe that a lot of our players didn’t play the right way last year. I said it: We were selfish. I’m not running away from that. We were selfish, and we didn’t play the right way. So let us see it when we play the right way.”

I just don't get their strategy. I think Toronto missed their chance to get high reward for their (now) expiring guys. It is obvious that this group is not good enough to contend and they even lost VanVleet, so one could expect them to be even worse this season. They didn't make a splashy move that could turn their direction and put everyone in the right position. They have a bunch of long, athletic and switchable wings that should make for great defense, but they actually didn't. Offensively they obviously lack a top playmaker, better shooter or two could also help a lot. They did nothing to address those needs. They are basically facing a situation, where guys like Siakam and OG just walk in the summer to teams where they can contend, or Toronto will have to pay premium salaries to keep them - same group that is not good enough to contend. They were not prepared to pay premium for FVV...

(10-02-2023, 09:52 PM)surfpuckmd Wrote: [ -> ]He's going to get an extension for more than the MLE.  There will be a lot more cap space in the summer of 2024 than there was this past summer.  Athletic and willing defensive players who hit 40 percent from 3 are very valuable in the NBA.  Especially when they are young and project to improve.  

Teams like the Magic, Pistons, Rockets and the Pacers will be competing to add talented young players.  Each will have a lot of money next summer.  You've had some really intelligent posts about how expensive it is to add players in free agency.  It's exactly why the Mavericks have struggled to succeed since 2011.  Allowing Josh Green to make it to free agency exposes us to the bidding war of free agency.  There will be a team willing to offer him more than $20 million next off-season.  Too many teams will have over $50 million to spend.  Teams become desperate and make foolish decisions as the talent dries up.  As an example, the Mavericks gave Harrison Barnes a max deal in 2016-  the Mavs were desperate to add some talent at any price. 

The worst case scenario isn't overpaying Josh Green.  The worst case scenario is Josh walking next off-season because the Mavericks once again didn't feel like paying market price.  We can't keep letting talent walk away.  We don't have the assets to patch holes through trades.  Mark Cuban will have to pay the market price for talent or we'll never contend.  We would be wasting Luka's prime.  I don't think anyone wants that.

Athletic and willing defensive player who shoot well from 3 on low volume generally get around the MLE (see Grant Williams).  Even some of the best low volume 3&D players never made much more than MLE (Danny Green, Covington).  Hell, Dorian is a great example.  Its very rare to see a player score less than 10 points a game while not being an elite defender or distributor make significantly more than the MLE.

(10-03-2023, 08:07 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]What an odd answer in regards to the status of an extension for Siakam.

When asked why a player of Siakam’s caliber hasn’t even been offered an extension, Ujiri parroted the party line, seemingly throwing his star under the bus.

“We do believe in Pascal,” Ujiri said. “We do believe that a lot of our players didn’t play the right way last year. I said it: We were selfish. I’m not running away from that. We were selfish, and we didn’t play the right way. So let us see it when we play the right way.”

When I first saw that quote, I thought the same thing. After thinking about it, what has changed on the team to give Ujiri hope that selfishness will not be a part of the issue there? FVV left. I wonder if he’s calling out him and not the rest of the team?

(10-03-2023, 11:04 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]When I first saw that quote, I thought the same thing. After thinking about it, what has changed on the team to give Ujiri hope that selfishness will not be a part of the issue there? FVV left. I wonder if he’s calling out him and not the rest of the team?

Maybe, but if I had to guess, Fred is probably more of a team player than Siakam.

(10-03-2023, 08:36 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I just don't get their strategy. I think Toronto missed their chance to get high reward for their (now) expiring guys. It is obvious that this group is not good enough to contend and they even lost VanVleet, so one could expect them to be even worse this season. They didn't make a splashy move that could turn their direction and put everyone in the right position. They have a bunch of long, athletic and switchable wings that should make for great defense, but they actually didn't. Offensively they obviously lack a top playmaker, better shooter or two could also help a lot. They did nothing to address those needs. They are basically facing a situation, where guys like Siakam and OG just walk in the summer to teams where they can contend, or Toronto will have to pay premium salaries to keep them - same group that is not good enough to contend. They were not prepared to pay premium for FVV...

Maybe they saw FVV as a big part of the problem and decided to just let him go regardless of the contract he got? The ball does start with him most plays. When looking at the stats, there isn’t much change in his FGA (they were actually at a 3 year low last year) and his assists went up last year, so as far as counting stats go, he doesn’t look like the culprit. I didn’t watch really any Tor games last year, so I can’t comment on that.

The biggest change they made was a switch of FVV to Schroder. I have no love for Schroder so my take could be biased, but if selfishness is their problem, there’s no way Schroder helps that, but as GM, you get to talk to the FAs before they sign with you and if this was a good faith contract with the understanding that he change that identity then there are a few reasons to think he might. First being humbled by not being a starter (except on LAL) since leaving Atl could be reason to believe. I assume he will be the starter at this stop, but maybe that contingency is in place that if he is selfish he’ll not start anymore (who knows, but this all goes to Ujiri making the comment he made). I will say, I saw a lot of maturity in apologizing to Maxi after making the initial nasty comment about him not playing for the national team. Maybe he’s trying?

As far as addressing shooting, they did draft Dick. They then went back to their same archetype by signing McDaniels. Maybe a mid season trade is in the future for Siakam? If the team is looking the same as last year by mid season I can’t imagine them not shaking it up.

(10-03-2023, 10:31 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Athletic and willing defensive player who shoot well from 3 on low volume generally get around the MLE (see Grant Williams).  Even some of the best low volume 3&D players never made much more than MLE (Danny Green, Covington).  Hell, Dorian is a great example.  Its very rare to see a player score less than 10 points a game while not being an elite defender or distributor make significantly more than the MLE.

J.Green ~$12m/yr is a no-brainer.  When it gets into >=$16m/yr, it's a tough sell.  

J.Hart = $20.2m/4yrs
Thybulle = $11m/3yrs
*J.Green is closer to Thybulle than Hart.