(12-14-2023, 08:11 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Not really. When's the last time we saw a deal coming in advance. Just because we haven't thought of it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
I didn't mean that we couldn't agree on a
deal, I meant that we couldn't even agree on the thing they need to look for in the market. I'd say that's a fairly rare occurrence here. It just occurred to me that Mavs decision makers might have similarly differing POV's at this point.
I think that idea argues for patience.
Having said that, I like the Holmes for Bojan idea a lot. Is there a way to do it without Green? I assume not, but would look for one. I probably make that deal in the end.
The Ringer did some hypothetical trades. They had one for Lauri Markennan to Golden State for Kuminga, Moody and two firsts. Pretty interesting. Not sure if either team would do this but Golden State is sort of stuck and Utah's window has been pushed further down the road.
(12-14-2023, 09:30 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]The Ringer did some hypothetical trades. They had one for Lauri Markennan to Golden State for Kuminga, Moody and two firsts. Pretty interesting. Not sure if either team would do this but Golden State is sort of stuck and Utah's window has been pushed further down the road.
It feels like Utah is about to sell everything they can, and that was probably always the plan. I think that's expensive for Markennan. I think all they'd want are the two firsts, so I kind of doubt GS would trade their good
players in the deal. Of course, they might have to in order to get the money to work. I get that.
(12-14-2023, 09:34 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]It feels like Utah is about to sell everything they can, and that was probably always the plan. I think that's expensive for Markennan. I think all they'd want are the two firsts, so I kind of doubt GS would trade their good players in the deal. Of course, they might have to in order to get the money to work. I get that.
Looking at their roster there isn't a lot to sell. Clarkson (6th man chucker), Olynyk (backup big) and Collins (one of our favorite topics). Should be happy if they can get a couple of 2nds for them.
(12-14-2023, 09:48 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Looking at their roster there isn't a lot to sell. Clarkson (6th man chucker), Olynyk (backup big) and Collins (one of our favorite topics). Should be happy if they can get a couple of 2nds for them.
Yeah, they have certainly fell back to earth this year. Although, they look much more competent when they have Lauri on the floor. They got a much needed win against the Knicks last night.
Probably the more important things for them is to see if they can get Kessler back to his play last year. The Ringer had him in their top 80 for players in the league. So far, he has not been very good. He was injured though. He was such a factor protecting the rim as a rookie. Then the development of their three first round picks.
Lauri is going to be a tricky scenario for them. He is really good and has really flourished in Utah. But are they close enough to be a serious team right now or is that 2-3 years down the road. Ainge will do a deal on his terms. It will be interesting if a team offers a trade he can't turn down.
(12-14-2023, 09:48 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Looking at their roster there isn't a lot to sell. Clarkson (6th man chucker), Olynyk (backup big) and Collins (one of our favorite topics). Should be happy if they can get a couple of 2nds for them.
I'd say those could all be interesting deadline pieces for the right team at the deadline, but I agree. Not the most valuable bunch. I wonder if Ainge would agree.
I went looking for the box score of the Phoenix vs Brooklyn game ... which Brooklyn won despite the big three being on the court for Phoenix the first time this season.
It's a classic example of where the money is. Phoenix starters had nearly all the points. Their rotation players were... absent. Eubanks and Watnabe had zero points between them and only about 5 minutes on the court. Bates-Diop played 12 minutes and scored 2 points. Nassir Little actually had a good stat line with 27 minutes and 10 points. Jordan Goodwin played 27 minutes, but you wouldn't have known it. He was 1-6 for 2 points.
Basically Phoenix is playing with 6 players now. Every stat is weighted heavily on the starters and Nassir Little in the rotation.
Honestly, this team has to remain healthy to compete. Even then, it's going to be a challenge every night. No player coming off the bench is really NBA-average in terms of 3-point shooting percentage.
Compare with the Dallas Mavericks bench players. If A.J. Lawson were playing for the Phoenix Suns, he likely would be playing 20-28 minutes a game.
(12-14-2023, 12:49 PM)Winter Wrote: [ -> ]I went looking for the box score of the Phoenix vs Brooklyn game ... which Brooklyn won despite the big three being on the court for Phoenix the first time this season.
It's a classic example of where the money is. Phoenix starters had nearly all the points. Their rotation players were... absent. Eubanks and Watnabe had zero points between them and only about 5 minutes on the court. Bates-Diop played 12 minutes and scored 2 points. Nassir Little actually had a good stat line with 27 minutes and 10 points. Jordan Goodwin played 27 minutes, but you wouldn't have known it. He was 1-6 for 2 points.
Basically Phoenix is playing with 6 players now. Every stat is weighted heavily on the starters and Nassir Little in the rotation.
Honestly, this team has to remain healthy to compete. Even then, it's going to be a challenge every night. No player coming off the bench is really NBA-average in terms of shooting percentage.
Compare with the Dallas Mavericks bench players. If A.J. Lawson were playing for the Phoenix Suns, he likely would be playing 20-28 minutes a game.
Despise Booker and to a lesser extent Durant and Beal, so I will personally be enjoying the hell out of the inevitable crash and burn.
They do have Eric Gordon too and he is still a good player when healthy. I just hope Phoenix doesn’t get gifted Gordon Hayward or some other difference maker and a buy out.
(12-14-2023, 01:10 PM)MarkAguirreWrathofGod Wrote: [ -> ]They do have Eric Gordon too and he is still a good player when healthy. I just hope Phoenix doesn’t get gifted Gordon Hayward or some other difference maker and a buy out.
The buyout market will probably work a trick or two for them if they're still in it down the stretch. Just how things are, I'm afraid.
I think there's a chance they might fall on their face before that point though. I don't think Beal is reliable (or even that great, honestly) and one significant stretch of missed games for Durant might do the whole season in.
(12-14-2023, 01:10 PM)MarkAguirreWrathofGod Wrote: [ -> ]They do have Eric Gordon too and he is still a good player when healthy. I just hope Phoenix doesn’t get gifted Gordon Hayward or some other difference maker and a buy out.
I should have mentioned Gordon and Grayson Allen... at least they can hit a shot. Allen might be back in the rotation soon.
But this team has a serious chasm between their starters and rotation players.
(12-14-2023, 08:11 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Not really. When's the last time we saw a deal coming in advance. Just because we haven't thought of it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
I'm going to throw out another name today. It is partially about the player and partially about a cap illustration.
Bojan is playing again (33 points last night). Holmes plus Green for Bojan is in the sweet spot where Green's PP is satisfied. The deal leaves Dallas just under the tax in 23/24 (almost as if they planned it that way). It also saves $6.5mm off of the 24/25 cap (BB is only guaranteed $2mm, so you could save even more, but you wouldn't do that absent a major injury). People can debate the on-court merits of turning Josh into an older, bigger more accomplished guy. I'll simply say that Exum's emergence probably makes a crowded backcourt even more crowded. Without Green, you'd have Luka/Kyrie/THJ/Exum as playoff rotation 'guards' (not to mention Seth and Hardy) and GWill/DJJ/Bojan/OMax as 'wings'.
The money is the main thing I wanted to address. The extra $6.5mm is meaningful in the effort to keep DJJ (or use some or all of the full MLE on someone else). Loki mentioned being able to use the full MLE even when the team is a taxpaying team. Yes, but then you are hard-capped if you do. Spotrac has us at $172mm for 13 players next season ($172mm also happens to be the tax line). Add in a minimum for the 14th player and you are about $5 million from the first apron. The TP MLE is about that same $5 million. So, as things currently stand we can only offer the TP-MLE as anything more would put us over the projected first Apron at $179.9mm.
But, if you do the cap lowering deal above you give yourself more flexibility under the apron. You are now about $11.5mm under. You've fallen back to 13 players again (in 24/25) and have to account for another minimum guy, but you are now something a hair over $9mm away from being hard-capped. That extra room might be the difference between keeping and not keeping DJJ (or getting someone like Hartenstein in free agency). Note that Curry is non-guaranteed next year, but you only pick up part of his $4mm salary if you waive him as you have to replace him with a minimum wage guy. The point of all of this is any deal we might do before the TDL should be looked at from both an on-court standpoint in the current season and from a 24/25 cap standpoint if we believe keeping DJJ (or using a chunk of the MLE) is a priority.
1 It does seem to me that DET might be open to changing the landscape to some degree. Both BB, and then beyond BB, there are some who might be interesting.
2 I like this trade idea from a financial standpoint (and there are other ways to fashion it, besides Holmes-Green).
3 Would the Mavs see BB as an oncourt fit?
THE NEGATIVE - While BB would be a significant contributor on offense, he's an issue on defense. He would be targeted mercilessly in the playoffs. I think that with Luka and Kyrie as the foundational pieces they build around, the Mavs' baseline for any added player is that they can't be THAT bad defensively. And while the Mavs reportedly had interest in BB, wasn't their interest in him something that preceded the addition of Kyrie?
THE POSITIVE - It still would be enticing since they are getting so little from Green and Holmes. That assumes BB will be healthy going forward. But his health, and the potential for age dropoff, are the risks.
4 There would also be questions if the theoretical "upside for Green" would satisfy what DET is seeking for BB.
The Athletic: "From the
Detroit Pistons, owners of the NBA’s worst record and an 18-game losing streak, have expressed that it would take a large offer to acquire 20-point scorer
Bojan Bogdanović, league sources said. The situation with Bogdanović is akin to the one with
Jerami Grant from a couple of seasons ago, when Grant had two years remaining on his contract and Detroit held onto him despite its losing record. The Pistons eventually flipped Grant for a late first-round pick once the rangy forward was in the final year of his deal."
(12-14-2023, 03:02 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]THE NEGATIVE - While BB would be a significant contributor on offense, he's an issue on defense. He would be targeted mercilessly in the playoffs.
The fact that this statement is accurate combined with the fact that Utah was using Bojan as the main defender on Luka in the playoffs (asking him to pick Luka up full court no less) just speaks to how much Rudy really had to cover up for on those Utah teams.
If I were a Pistons fan, I would be furious if Troy Weaver is allowed to make any roster decisions come trade deadline. I do not understand why that man still has his job.
(12-14-2023, 01:13 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]The buyout market will probably work a trick or two for them if they're still in it down the stretch. Just how things are, I'm afraid.
I think there's a chance they might fall on their face before that point though. I don't think Beal is reliable (or even that great, honestly) and one significant stretch of missed games for Durant might do the whole season in.
Just did a quick read of the new CBA rules again and I’d forgotten that players getting paid more than the MLE of 12.2 and are bought out can’t be signed by teams above the first or second apron this season. So guys like Hayward can’t be signed by Miami, Phoenix, GS, Milwaukee, Boston etc.and was happy to be reminded of this rule.
(12-14-2023, 04:18 PM)MarkAguirreWrathofGod Wrote: [ -> ]Just did a quick read of the new CBA rules again and I’d forgotten that players getting paid more than the MLE of 12.2 and are bought out can’t be signed by teams above the first or second apron this season. So guys like Hayward can’t be signed by Miami, Phoenix, GS, Milwaukee, Boston etc.and was happy to be reminded of this rule.
That's draconian. I love it until it affects us.
(12-14-2023, 08:11 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Not really. When's the last time we saw a deal coming in advance. Just because we haven't thought of it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
I'm going to throw out another name today. It is partially about the player and partially about a cap illustration.
Bojan is playing again (33 points last night). Holmes plus Green for Bojan is in the sweet spot where Green's PP is satisfied. The deal leaves Dallas just under the tax in 23/24 (almost as if they planned it that way). It also saves $6.5mm off of the 24/25 cap (BB is only guaranteed $2mm, so you could save even more, but you wouldn't do that absent a major injury). People can debate the on-court merits of turning Josh into an older, bigger more accomplished guy. I'll simply say that Exum's emergence probably makes a crowded backcourt even more crowded. Without Green, you'd have Luka/Kyrie/THJ/Exum as playoff rotation 'guards' (not to mention Seth and Hardy) and GWill/DJJ/Bojan/OMax as 'wings'.
The money is the main thing I wanted to address. The extra $6.5mm is meaningful in the effort to keep DJJ (or use some or all of the full MLE on someone else). Loki mentioned being able to use the full MLE even when the team is a taxpaying team. Yes, but then you are hard-capped if you do. Spotrac has us at $172mm for 13 players next season ($172mm also happens to be the tax line). Add in a minimum for the 14th player and you are about $5 million from the first apron. The TP MLE is about that same $5 million. So, as things currently stand we can only offer the TP-MLE as anything more would put us over the projected first Apron at $179.9mm.
But, if you do the cap lowering deal above you give yourself more flexibility under the apron. You are now about $11.5mm under. You've fallen back to 13 players again (in 24/25) and have to account for another minimum guy, but you are now something a hair over $9mm away from being hard-capped. That extra room might be the difference between keeping and not keeping DJJ (or getting someone like Hartenstein in free agency). Note that Curry is non-guaranteed next year, but you only pick up part of his $4mm salary if you waive him as you have to replace him with a minimum wage guy. The point of all of this is any deal we might do before the TDL should be looked at from both an on-court standpoint in the current season and from a 24/25 cap standpoint if we believe keeping DJJ (or using a chunk of the MLE) is a priority.
The Mavs supposedly had interest in Bojan this offseason. I believe Hardaway was involved in these conversations. I am not sure I give up green though. Green has started slow and could be in a minutes crunch when he comes back and everyone is healthy. I still feel like he has the personality to fit well here around Luka. There are some things he needs to improve though.
Detroit is so weird, i have no idea what they will do. They are historically bad right now and I could see them make a win now trade. That GM must be desperate to get a win. They will not be able to properly evaluate Cade until they surround him with shooters. So far though, he appears to be not good enough to be a #1. May be challenging if so considering all the time he has the ball.
(12-14-2023, 04:26 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]That's draconian. I love it until it affects us.
Well they can still sign useful players that get bought like Monte Morris or Kyle Anderson level types. But no Kevin Love last season for Miami if this rule was in effect then.
(12-14-2023, 03:02 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]2 I like this trade idea from a financial standpoint (and there are other ways to fashion it, besides Holmes-Green).
4 There would also be questions if the theoretical "upside for Green" would satisfy what DET is seeking for BB.
Yeah, I was trying to keep Dallas under the tax this year and make it more about Green and less about draft resources. It could be done differently, but you are probably in the tax and sending a nice pick.
One thing I meant to mention. Dennis Lindsey was the one who signed Bojan when he moved from Indy to Utah in 2019.
I’m a bigger fan than most of Bojan I would imagine. But no way I’d send Green or 2027 first round pick for him. He used to be an underrated defender and guarded prime Lebron about as effectively as possible when he was with Indiana. But he has definitely lost a step in that regard. I understand the $ angle is important too. I’d just hate to send out an athlete like Green for a year and a half of Bojan, who doesn’t really fill either of our two biggest needs— back up Big or shut down wing. And, further, it creates new hole at point of attack defender, leaving Exum as the only other plus defender at guard.Green is by no means a finished product in this area, but he is active and disruptive and always hustling. He has gotten better at pressuring the ball handler without fouling this season it seems to me.
(12-14-2023, 05:12 PM)MarkAguirreWrathofGod Wrote: [ -> ]I’m a bigger fan than most of Bojan I would imagine. But no way I’d send Green or 2027 first round pick for him. He used to be an underrated defender and guarded prime Lebron about as effectively as possible when he was with Indiana. But he has definitely lost a step in that regard. I understand the $ angle is important too. I’d just hate to send out an athlete like Green for a year and a half of Bojan, who doesn’t really fill either of our two biggest needs— back up Big or shut down wing. And, further, it creates new hole at point of attack defender, leaving Exum as the only other plus defender at guard.Green is by no means a finished product in this area, but he is active and disruptive and always hustling. He has gotten better at pressuring the ball handler without fouling this season it seems to me.
While I'm not high on Green, I do agree that this seems a bit sideways.
We are offering two players we don't seem to need for one player we don't seem to need. There may be contract advantages that override the talent aspect, but I'm not sure we gain anything in the win column.
I'm more eager for a backup big man with a talent for rebounds.