(08-18-2023, 09:33 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]In a similar vein, I like comparing this roster to what we had after the KP trade when we made the WCF run.
Luka => Luka
Brunson => Kyrie
Dorian => Williams
Din => THJ/Hardy/Curry
Bullock => Green
Maxi => Maxi
Powell => Powell
Green => Exum
The biggest issue with that team was the massive lack of depth in the front court, where this team has Holmes/Lively/Omax/DJJ.
I think this is STELLAR thinking, here.
And, as you say, there are interesting names not even in your initial list that might just merit jumping over some of the names on it. How long will it take Kidd to sort through all of this and find the right rotation? Can he do it in such a way where they don't lose too many games through experimentation, but without avoiding the experimentation altogether?
If he does his job and we're patient, this is a team that SHOULD improve all season.
(08-18-2023, 09:54 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, I mean they didn't do anything but "my turn, your turn" last year (a level below what Luka and Brunson were doing the year prior) and the offense was STILL bananas. What if Luka + Kyrie + a new contract + a training camp = something BETTER than what Luka/Brunson were able to achieve?
It's definitely wishful thinking, but not irrational wishful thinking. It's a plausible "what if" imho.
It's very plausible, and the crazy thing is I am more worried about Luka adjusting than Kyrie. Kyrie seemed to fit like a glove from day one. Its Luka who is going to have to alter some very ingrained habits. If he can play some effective off ball, those two will be unstoppable.
(08-18-2023, 09:33 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]In a similar vein, I like comparing this roster to what we had after the KP trade when we made the WCF run.
Luka => Luka
Brunson => Kyrie
Dorian => Williams
Din => THJ/Hardy/Curry
Bullock => Green
Maxi => Maxi
Powell => Powell
Green => Exum
The biggest issue with that team was the massive lack of depth in the front court, where this team has Holmes/Lively/Omax/DJJ.
Several things to consider here.
1. Maxi, Dorian and Bullock were awesome that offseason. Played way above their contracts. Neither came close to repeating that performance last season. Maxi is two years older, so I don't think we can just put an equalizer there. He was bad last season. Bullock was imho way better in that run than Green has been at any point so far. Difficult to compare DFS and GW at this point.
2. That team had great cemistry. Can this team get to that level?
3. Having three ballhandlers was a great advantage in that run. Unless Hardy (or Green) takes a serious step forward, Mavs don't have that on their team. It will be especially missed big time in the regular season every time Luka or Kyrie will not be playing. It will cost us games, imho. None of THJ/Hardy/Curry can replicate what SD was contributing in that run, imho. Based on the history, we can count that Luka will miss some 15 games and Kyrie some 30 games. That could be more than half of games where one of them will not be available.
4. So here is my evaluation comparing that team with current one
Luka = Luka
Brunson = Kyrie (I don't think Irving brings much more value altogether, taking into account Brunsons mentality and locker room impact. Despite perhaps better counting stats)
Dorian = Williams
Din > THJ/Hardy/Curry
Bullock > Green
Maxi > Maxi
Powell = Powell
Green/FN = Exum (I added FN, because Green was bad in that run. But I wouldn't expect Exum could contribute more than they did in that run)
I don't think this team is better than team from two years ago.
(08-18-2023, 10:46 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]3. Having three ballhandlers was a great advantage in that run. Unless Hardy (or Green) takes a serious step forward, Mavs don't have that on their team. It will be especially missed big time in the regular season every time Luka or Kyrie will not be playing. It will cost us games, imho. None of THJ/Hardy/Curry can replicate what SD was contributing in that run, imho. Based on the history, we can count that Luka will miss some 15 games and Kyrie some 30 games. That could be more than half of games where one of them will not be available.
This is a fair point, for sure.
Are any of Exum, Hardy or Curry up to this? Better yet, will Kidd identify which of them he needs to try to
train to be up for it in time for them to succeed?
That's a huge "what if," I agree.
The West is really deep. There are going to be some pretty good teams who will be really disappointed in their season next year. Dallas could certainly be one of those teams. Even looking at a team like Minnesota. That is a pretty good looking roster and I expect they will have a better regular season this year than last. But they could certainly be disappointing as well. It will be rough.
Dallas certainly wanted to do more this offseason, but I am thrilled where they are. They did not stay still until they could make a move…such as moving Hardaway. They were proactive and looked to make the best moves available with limited assets regardless who was on the roster. More importantly, they have positioned themselves well to be a team who has some upside moving forward. Time will tell if their moves work out. I was fearful they would make win now moves this offseason with little room for error moving forward. Sort of no mans land. Fringe contender now but really limited to compete against all the building young talent several teams have. Now I believe they are not a contender next year, but they have the direction of a team that I can see clearly as a contender in 2-3 years if they are right in their moves and if they continue to make good decisions.
(08-18-2023, 07:45 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I guess it depends on the starting point you select. In early January we spent the better part of two weeks in 3rd in the west. Prior to the trade, we were 0-7 in games Luka missed. After the trade, we were 5-3 (excluding the tank game to end the season). Luka is going to miss some games, so that is a significant development.
Irving replaced Dinwiddie from that 3rd place team.
GWill replaced DFS from that 3rd place team.
One of those is a massive upgrade and the other is TBD. We also moved on from negative on/court players like Wood, Reggie and Bertans (not to mention the 1,450 minutes played by McGee, Wright, Pinson, Holiday and Kemba).
A positive on/court player like Green will get a bigger role, but after that it is just supposition to say we know what Curry, DJJ, Exum, Hardy, the Rookies and Holmes will give us. We hope Powell and THJ don't backslide and that Maxi returns to his historic form. One can make whatever positive or negative case they want, but the truth is we just don't know.
BUT, and this is important, all of those unknowns don't have to be great. They just have to contribute more to winning than Wood, Reggie, Bertans and the 1,450 minutes of end-of-roster trash from last season. It is a SUPER LOW bar to achieve.
I don't think you can take Mavs best position from some point in the season and clame that that team was 3rd best. Strength of schedule, availability of players on competition and similar plays significant role. That same team was also out of playoffs at different points of the season as teams were extremely close and positions changed very quickly. Luka played supernova and wore down in half a season, because they asked so much from him (remember all the times he played whole second half even against average teams).
In similar way I could take the post trade result and take that as a basis. That team was 10-18, which is approximately a 30 win season. But I rather take season as a whole, which was 38 wins. A jump from there to 44 wins is assuming that several things went right. A better result would mean that a lot/most of things went right. It is certainly possible. But, it is also possible that less things than expected will go right. From that perspective, the 44 wins is imho a reasonable in between number.
(08-18-2023, 07:45 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]We also moved on from negative on/court players like Wood, Reggie and Bertans (not to mention the 1,450 minutes played by McGee, Wright, Pinson, Holiday and Kemba).
Just a bit regarding this. It is inevitable that some players will be positive and some negative. It is not possible that all players have a positive on/off impact. Some of the players that were a positive on other teams will be negative on Mavs. And it is also possible that some former Mavs players will be a positive on their new teams in different roles.
(08-18-2023, 10:46 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Several things to consider here.
1. Maxi, Dorian and Bullock were awesome that offseason. Played way above their contracts. Neither came close to repeating that performance last season. Maxi is two years older, so I don't think we can just put an equalizer there. He was bad last season. Bullock was imho way better in that run than Green has been at any point so far. Difficult to compare DFS and GW at this point.
2. That team had great cemistry. Can this team get to that level?
3. Having three ballhandlers was a great advantage in that run. Unless Hardy (or Green) takes a serious step forward, Mavs don't have that on their team. It will be especially missed big time in the regular season every time Luka or Kyrie will not be playing. It will cost us games, imho. None of THJ/Hardy/Curry can replicate what SD was contributing in that run, imho. Based on the history, we can count that Luka will miss some 15 games and Kyrie some 30 games. That could be more than half of games where one of them will not be available.
4. So here is my evaluation comparing that team with current one
Luka = Luka
Brunson = Kyrie (I don't think Irving brings much more value altogether, taking into account Brunsons mentality and locker room impact. Despite perhaps better counting stats)
Dorian = Williams
Din > THJ/Hardy/Curry
Bullock > Green
Maxi > Maxi
Powell = Powell
Green/FN = Exum (I added FN, because Green was bad in that run. But I wouldn't expect Exum could contribute more than they did in that run)
I don't think this team is better than team from two years ago.
So a lot of this depends on whether you are talking about regular season or playoffs. I think the original premise was regarding regular season standing, but if you are looking at it from a playoff perspective then your points are stronger.
For example, Bullock was in peak form during the playoffs, but he really was not that great during the regular season. He had long stretches where he couldn't hit a 3 and he provides nothing else on offense. I also think his defense was a little overrated. He was a little better than average which looked really good next to poor defenders like Luka, Brunson, Timmy and Dinwiddie. Same goes for Maxi. He peaked during the playoffs, but he had some really bad stretches during the regular season as well.
I also think we are going to get significantly more production out of the likes of Holmes/Lively/Omax/DJJ then we got out of the bottom of the WCF roster. To be clear, I was not suggesting with that post that we are better, but I do think we are in the ballpark from a regular season standpoint.
As for who plays second unit point when one of Luka/Kyrie is out, I think the most likely candidate is Exum.
(08-18-2023, 11:21 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]So a lot of this depends on whether you are talking about regular season or playoffs. I think the original premise was regarding regular season standing, but if you are looking at it from a playoff perspective then your points are stronger.
For example, Bullock was in peak form during the playoffs, but he really was not that great during the regular season. He had long stretches where he couldn't hit a 3 and he provides nothing else on offense. I also think his defense was a little overrated. He was a little better than average which looked really good next to poor defenders like Luka, Brunson, Timmy and Dinwiddie. Same goes for Maxi. He peaked during the playoffs, but he had some really bad stretches during the regular season as well.
I also think we are going to get significantly more production out of the likes of Holmes/Lively/Omax/DJJ then we got out of the bottom of the WCF roster. To be clear, I was not suggesting with that post that we are better, but I do think we are in the ballpark from a regular season standpoint.
As for who plays second unit point when one of Luka/Kyrie is out, I think the most likely candidate is Exum.
Regular season: I think what seems as better bottom part of rotation will help in some games where guys from upper part of rotation will not play. This will bring a bit more wins. I think the upper part of rotation is at best on par with what Mavs had in previous seasons.
Playoffs: I think Mavs still severly lack two-way players next to their stars. They will have best player on the court in most series, so I could see them win a series or even two, if the opponent would be suitable, if supporting cast will be playing defense and hit their shots. But the tougher part will be to get there, imho.
One thing to consider - Kidd/Sweeney defensive scheme worked only in first season wherever they were and is still the same. How much of a problem for the defensive result that scheme was?
Quote:Based on the history, we can count that Luka will miss some 15 games and Kyrie some 30 games.
So one thing to note. Two things Kyrie now has as incentive to miss no more than 17 games this season (and 1 thing for Luka for that matter). His contract has incentive to play 65 games and NBA season awards have the same number of games played to be eligible. Not that he will play when badly injured, but I think the excuses of going to a family member’s birthday party (or whatever) and minor injuries will be out the door.
Yeah I don't think it's crazy at all to say this team has a higher ceiling than the WCF roster.
Just probably won't happen. Rare that a team peaks like that at the exact perfect time for 2 rounds of playoff basketball.
(08-18-2023, 11:34 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Regular season: I think what seems as better bottom part of rotation will help in some games where guys from upper part of rotation will not play. This will bring a bit more wins. I think the upper part of rotation is at best on par with what Mavs had in previous seasons.
Playoffs: I think Mavs still severly lack two-way players next to their stars. They will have best player on the court in most series, so I could see them win a series or even two, if the opponent would be suitable, if supporting cast will be playing defense and hit their shots. But the tougher part will be to get there, imho.
One thing to consider - Kidd/Sweeney defensive scheme worked only in first season wherever they were and is still the same. How much of a problem for the defensive result that scheme was?
Yeah, I am worried about Kidd as a coach in general and specifically his historical collapse defensively after year 1.
(08-21-2023, 02:04 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Next "victim" in OKC. Mavs reportedly liked him on draft night. Certainly a good bet for 2-way, unless he wants more.
https://twitter.com/TheDunkCentral/statu...8713701886
I think he's a little more talented than a 2-way. Wouldn't mind him taking Javale's roster spot right away.
For all the PJ Washington fans on this board, this is one way to spend 10% of the money PJ wants on a similar skillset to see if it becomes anything.
November 22. Christian Wood. 30 points. On Dwight’s head. Book it.
Wood to LAL and now Danny Green to PHI. Are things about to start picking up? Trade restrictions are beginning to expire and at least 2 big names have requested a trade.
(09-05-2023, 10:48 PM)DallasMaverick Wrote: [ -> ]Mavs win 146-132.
Mr. Midd's ego will prevent that.
![[Image: F4y8nMMW8AAcKii?format=jpg&name=medium]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4y8nMMW8AAcKii?format=jpg&name=medium)