lakers sign Vanderbilt to a 4 year 48 million dollar deal. I think that should be in line with Josh Green should look for. Potentially less than what he could get if he waits and plays well, but life changing money now.
Lakers probably using this contract to eventually move Vanderbilt if the right move comes along. I have heard that lakers may use Russell and a guy like Rui (now Vanderbilt) if somehow a mercurial point guard decides he wants to be somewhere else in a year. Now idea who that
Could be though
(09-15-2023, 08:47 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]lakers sign Vanderbilt to a 4 year 48 million dollar deal. I think that should be in line with Josh Green should look for. Potentially less than what he could get if he waits and plays well, but life changing money now.
Lakers probably using this contract to eventually move Vanderbilt if the right move comes along. I have heard that lakers may use Russell and a guy like Rui (now Vanderbilt) if somehow a mercurial point guard decides he wants to be somewhere else in a year. Now idea who that
Could be though
That's interesting.
On one hand, I could argue that Green's ability to shoot puts him into an entire different level, and that he should get more. Vanderbilt is hard to play when things matter. Much harder than it should be to play Green, in theory.
On the other hand, I could argue that Vanderbilt has been a consistent rotation mainstay for a few years now, and that it's delusional even to compare the two in terms of what they've produced.
I honestly don't know which angle is closer to the truth.
(09-15-2023, 11:20 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]
I could argue that Green's ability to shoot puts him into an entire different level, and that he should get more. Vanderbilt is hard to play when things matter.
On the other hand, I could argue that it's delusional even to compare the two in terms of what they've produced.
I honestly don't know which angle is closer to the truth.
I can help with that. It is the first one. Take the Over on the Green contract compared to Vandy.
(09-15-2023, 11:33 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I can help with that. It is the first one. Take the Over on the Green contract compared to Vandy.
You seem confident, and might be right.
You don't think there's anything to the idea that he has been in the rotation one year, so far, and inconsistently during that year?
For me, I think this is a situation where it makes sense to wait and see what he does this year, even if that means you end up paying more. I'm ready to count on the kid, but something tells me JKidd is not. It's just a funny feeling I have. Hope it's a wrong one.
(09-15-2023, 11:37 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]You seem confident, and might be right.
You don't think there's anything to the idea that he has been in the rotation one year, so far, and inconsistently during that year?
For me, I think this is a situation where it makes sense to wait and see what he does this year, even if that means you end up paying more. I'm ready to count on the kid, but something tells me JKidd is not. It's just a funny feeling I have. Hope it's a wrong one.
I should have said “if he gets an extension” take the over. I can’t predict IF the Mav’s do it or not. The risk they run is he gets offers north of $20mm next summer. They can’t match that and make their cap structure work. They probably have more risk in this negotiation than Green does, so this is not about what he’s already accomplished. It is about de-risking their future exposure.
Players also give up something to get the security of locking in a deal a year early. I think $12mm is the absolute floor here. I’ve said all along I think $14mm is the number.
(09-15-2023, 11:33 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I can help with that. It is the first one. Take the Over on the Green contract compared to Vandy.
I'll take the over on Vandy for Green. Here are some others that signed this summer that are over Vandy.
DiVincenzo 10.9 this year. Coby White 11.1, Austin Reaves 12.0, and new Mavs Grant Williams 12.4 this year.
Any guess on these players? I'll play it safe with 2 over and 2 under. at best Reaves and Green are a push.
Ya, that GWill contract should be the max for Green at this point. I'd prefer it being less because, man, Green's play is so all over the place. This next contract makes me so nervous. I want to like him so much, but I can't if he's signed at $15M per year and plays like an $8-10M player (which is honestly the level at which he played last year IMO).
Mavs started DFS at 12.9 a year ago. I can't see them starting Green at more than that figure.
(09-15-2023, 12:21 PM)chaparral Wrote: [ -> ]Mavs started DFS at 12.9 a year ago. I can't see them starting Green at more than that figure.
I agree.
BUT, on the other hand, DFS wasn't drafted #18 (or at all) and wasn't one of the focal points of his country's national team.
I'm telling you, this Green situation is a strange bird.
(09-15-2023, 12:21 PM)chaparral Wrote: [ -> ]Mavs started DFS at 12.9 a year ago. I can't see them starting Green at more than that figure.
Dorian was better at the time of that signing than Green is now, but DFS was 29 and Green is 22. Green has more offensive versatility and upside and the extension starts 2 years later after cap will go up a fair amount. If you account for that inflation, Dan's number and this number are about the same.
(09-15-2023, 12:04 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I should have said “if he gets an extension” take the over. I can’t predict IF the Mav’s do it or not. The risk they run is he gets offers north of $20mm next summer. They can’t match that and make their cap structure work. They probably have more risk in this negotiation than Green does, so this is not about what he’s already accomplished. It is about de-risking their future exposure.
Players also give up something to get the security of locking in a deal a year early. I think $12mm is the absolute floor here. I’ve said all along I think $14mm is the number.
You and I perceive this potential risk differently. Only way Green is getting an offer close to that is if he completely looks like a different player and takes a huge step for this team. One I hope that happens by the way. But even if it does happen then the Mavs just match said deal and move on. He'd obviously be worth it. Should the very (and I believe VERY) unlikely reality that some desperate team throws Green a 4/80 deal next summer after he puts up a season that looked largely like the last 2 then you wrangle a SnT and wish Green good luck. The new cap rules punishes teams brutally for going over the 2nd cap and the days of overpaying the 4th-8th guys seem to be long gone.
If a guy like Reaves got 4/54 (after doing more in 1 season than Green has in 3 years) then I can't see how Green gets close to a 70mil offer. I'm going to tentatively submit a 4/55 deal but hope its closer to 4/44.
(09-15-2023, 05:14 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]If a guy like Reaves got 4/54 (after doing more in 1 season than Green has in 3 years) then I can't see how Green gets close to a 70mil offer. I'm going to tentatively submit a 4/55 deal but hope its closer to 4/44.
If we can trust the rumors Reaves could have signed for more but prefered to stay in LA. Including contracts in the 20m + range. Dallas won't get a free agent destination/big market/loyalty bonus.
(09-15-2023, 05:22 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]If we can trust the rumors Reaves could have signed for more but prefered to stay in LA. Including contracts in the 20m + range. Dallas won't get a free agent destination/big market/loyalty bonus.
I agree with most of this, but it remains to be seen whether or not they'll get a "loyalty" bonus from Green. I wouldn't expect it, but also don't think we can completely rule it out.
(09-15-2023, 05:22 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]If we can trust the rumors Reaves could have signed for more but prefered to stay in LA. Including contracts in the 20m + range. Dallas won't get a free agent destination/big market/loyalty bonus.
Yes. GWill, from this team got 4/$53 and I would say he has shown a bit more in his time with Bos than Green has here. The player optics of Green getting as much or more than that would most assuredly make someone a bit upset. Whether that manifests on the court would remain to be seen.
Also, some might say they got a loyalty bonus from Powell. Certainly THJ as well.
(09-15-2023, 05:22 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]If we can trust the rumors Reaves could have signed for more but prefered to stay in LA. Including contracts in the 20m + range. Dallas won't get a free agent destination/big market/loyalty bonus.
I think if Reaves actually got a contract offer worth north of 20mil, he'd be sitting here getting paid that contract by the Lakers. Those rumors clarified that no team actually ever offered those deals officially given the Lakers steadfastness in matching whatever was thrown their way.
If anything this should tell the Mavs to make it clear with a message that says "from day 1 Green will be matched no matter what and to not waste your time"
(09-15-2023, 05:14 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]You and I perceive this potential risk differently. Only way Green is getting an offer close to that is if he completely looks like a different player and takes a huge step for this team. One I hope that happens by the way. But even if it does happen then the Mavs just match said deal and move on. He'd obviously be worth it. Should the very (and I believe VERY) unlikely reality that some desperate team throws Green a 4/80 deal next summer after he puts up a season that looked largely like the last 2 then you wrangle a SnT and wish Green good luck. The new cap rules punishes teams brutally for going over the 2nd cap and the days of overpaying the 4th-8th guys seem to be long gone.
If a guy like Reaves got 4/54 (after doing more in 1 season than Green has in 3 years) then I can't see how Green gets close to a 70mil offer. I'm going to tentatively submit a 4/55 deal but hope its closer to 4/44.
The Reaves contract is an anomaly and shouldn't be used in comparisons. He took a discount to make certain he stayed with the Lakers. Had he been more financially motivated, he would have waited on an offer elsewhere and hoped the Lakers matched it. He made the unusual decision to prioritize location and fit rather than maximum financial reward. I believe he would have made at least $20 million per year had he been willing to risk ending up elsewhere. Living in Dallas and playing for the Mavericks won't have the same appeal to Josh Green.
I think everyone should prepare themselves for Josh Green receiving a contract worth more than $14 million per season. We'll have to compensate him based upon what we believe he'll become in 2 years rather than what he was last season. It's obviously a gamble either way. I would say he was a slightly-above average defensive player last season based upon the advanced stats. However, his athleticism and defensive energy are outstanding and I think he projects to be an excellent defensive player in two years.
On offense, he was a liability last season. However, his 3-point percentage of over 40% at 22 years of age is already outstanding. The flashes of ball-handling and passing are enticing. I think we'll project that he will continue to improve offensively with age and experience. His offensive impact should improve and he will likely become an overall decent offensive player.
An excellent defensive player who shoots 40 % from three and can handle and pass is a very valuable player.
Grant Williams is two years older than Josh Green and has less room to improve. He is likely closer to his ceiling than Josh Green is to his. Not every 22 year old NBA player improves with experience improves but most do. The Josh Green extension will account for that.
I hope Josh Green signs an extension for 4-years and $54 million or less. I think that would give us roster stability and would be a valuable contract. If I were his agent though, I would demand at least $16 million per year. Otherwise, I would wait until next summer when there will be a lot more cap space than there was this summer.
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New Orleans Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado suffered an ankle sprain during a workout this weekend and his availability for training camp is in question, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium.