MavsBoard

(12-13-2023, 09:59 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Unrelated...In four starts this season Exum is now 17.5/5/4.6.  His season long 3% went from .285% to 40% overnight (he was amazing last night).  I don't know if it makes more sense for him to start as the 3rd PG or come off the bench when everyone is healthy.  For the purpose of this exercise, I'll assume the bench.  Here is what I think is likely the current depth chart.  

Lively     Holmes(Maxi)
GWill      OMax (Maxi)
DJJ        Green
Irving     THJ
Luka       Exum

What is the greatest need?  What 'asset' would be missed the least?

I think there is still so much unknown, its hard to answer that question.

Is this who Exum is?  Can he hit 3s at decent rate?  If so, I don't know how you keep him out of the starting lineup.
Is this who DJJ is?  He is taking twice the number of 3s at a wildly better percentage.  Can he come close to maintaining that?
Is Maxi done, or can he get back to his old self?  Can he stay healthy?
Can OMax develop into a rotation level player?  How soon?
Can Holmes hold down the backup center role?

I'm not sure we will know many of these answers by the TDL.  I think we will have a lot better grasp of all of these questions at the end of the season/playoffs.  Part of the reason why I am hesitant to do anything before then.

(12-13-2023, 10:30 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I think there is still so much unknown, its hard to answer that question.

Is this who Exum is?  Can he hit 3s at decent rate?  If so, I don't know how you keep him out of the starting lineup.
Is this who DJJ is?  He is taking twice the number of 3s at a wildly better percentage.  Can he come close to maintaining that?
Is Maxi done, or can he get back to his old self?  Can he stay healthy?
Can OMax develop into a rotation level player?  How soon?
Can Holmes hold down the backup center role?

I'm not sure we will know many of these answers by the TDL.  I think we will have a lot better grasp of all of these questions at the end of the season/playoffs.  Part of the reason why I am hesitant to do anything before then.

(12-13-2023, 10:30 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I think there is still so much unknown, its hard to answer that question.

Is this who Exum is?  Can he hit 3s at decent rate?  If so, I don't know how you keep him out of the starting lineup.
Is this who DJJ is?  He is taking twice the number of 3s at a wildly better percentage.  Can he come close to maintaining that?
Is Maxi done, or can he get back to his old self?  Can he stay healthy?
Can OMax develop into a rotation level player?  How soon?
Can Holmes hold down the backup center role?

I'm not sure we will know many of these answers by the TDL.  I think we will have a lot better grasp of all of these questions at the end of the season/playoffs.  Part of the reason why I am hesitant to do anything before then.

I agree, hard to know what you need when you're not sure what you have.

(12-13-2023, 09:59 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Lively     Holmes(Maxi)
GWill      OMax (Maxi)
DJJ        Green
Irving     THJ
Luka       Exum

What is the greatest need?  What 'asset' would be missed the least?

A PF who can play C.
Must be a decent rebounder, and is a plus in defense.
Doesn't have to score 10 a game, but must be able to score when left alone.

I like the team as is, but the weakness is still glaring.
It's a weak rebounding team with no rim protection other than Lively.
That must be addressed.

(12-13-2023, 09:59 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Isn't there always some risk in a buy-low scenario.  Otherwise, the low part wouldn't exist.  That is the trick to these deals.  Almost no one here wanted Dinwiddie based on his recent past at the time of the trade.  But, if you went back further, you could find reason for hope.  

There isn't much point in going too far down this rabbit trail as the deal doesn't work.  But just yesterday you were making the "it wasn't that long ago" argument on behalf of Maxi.  I think the last 3 seasons on a good team probably holds more weight than 2019 and prior on a bad team, but I can see the concern.

Unrelated...In four starts this season Exum is now 17.5/5/4.6.  His season long 3% went from .285% to 40% overnight (he was amazing last night).  I don't know if it makes more sense for him to start as the 3rd PG or come off the bench when everyone is healthy.  For the purpose of this exercise, I'll assume the bench.  Here is what I think is likely the current depth chart.  

Lively     Holmes(Maxi)
GWill      OMax (Maxi)
DJJ        Green
Irving     THJ
Luka       Exum

What is the greatest need?  What 'asset' would be missed the least?

The eye test says “a big, bruising rim protector and rebounder”. But I’m not sure the analytics would agree.

I found it fascinating that the Lakers tried going big last night, but it didn’t generate the overwhelming mismatches that we might have expected. Or, at least, they were offset by the mismatches that the Mavs generated as a result.  And I’d perhaps also argue that the Lakers hit an extraordinarily high percentage of threes last night, which made the game closer than it should have been.

The rejoinder might be that the Mavs also hit an unusual percentage. But I’d argue that the Lakers’ performance was more unusual than the Mavs’.

I’m not sure what the greatest need is.

The Mavs hit a grand slam on their draft pick, got two nearly starter-level players who mesh exceptionally well with Luka and Kai on vet min contracts, convinced THJ to make changes to his game that make him more of a winning player, got their first decent FA in a long time on a reasonable contract, and may have something with OMax down the road. If they can stay healthy, I'm actually far more bullish on this team's chances in the playoffs than KL and mvossman. The only real question marks are health, and if JKidd can be convinced to turn DP into DNP in favor of Holmes, and if a very cheap (tradewise) upgrade is available on Holmes. I really think that it's the offseason that they need to look at - perhaps to trade some of our most onerous contracts for expirers so that they get the full MLE to re-sign DJJ (not a star, and perhaps not a starter, but a perfect fit for the team), or start tampering for that OG SnT. If they have an offseason that nets us OG and keeps DJJ, I think we can start planning on the Larry.

(12-13-2023, 12:47 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]The Mavs hit a grand slam on their draft pick, got two nearly starter-level players who mesh exceptionally well with Luka and Kai on vet min contracts, convinced THJ to make changes to his game that make him more of a winning player, got their first decent FA in a long time on a reasonable contract, and may have something with OMax down the road. If they can stay healthy, I'm actually far more bullish on this team's chances in the playoffs than KL and mvossman. The only real question marks are health, and if JKidd can be convinced to turn DP into DNP in favor of Holmes, and if a very cheap (tradewise) upgrade is available on Holmes. I really think that it's the offseason that they need to look at - perhaps to trade some of our most onerous contracts for expirers so that they get the full MLE to re-sign DJJ (not a star, and perhaps not a starter, but a perfect fit for the team), or start tampering for that OG SnT. If they have an offseason that nets us OG and keeps DJJ, I think we can start planning on the Larry.

Sounds like you are on the same page regarding focusing on the upcoming offseason to make any big moves.

As for our chances in this upcoming playoffs, as my post above suggests I'm not really sure who we are yet.  I will say that I think being a true contender is a big step.  I have heard it suggested that its a wide open West this year, but I am skeptical.  I know Denver is experiencing a bit of a hangover, but I don't think lasts through the playoffs.  I think this team will need some (playoff) experience and probably a fairly big piece to be able to compete with Denver in a 7 game series.

(12-13-2023, 01:28 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Sounds like you are on the same page regarding focusing on the upcoming offseason to make any big moves.

As for our chances in this upcoming playoffs, as my post above suggests I'm not really sure who we are yet.  I will say that I think being a true contender is a big step.  I have heard it suggested that its a wide open West this year, but I am skeptical.  I know Denver is experiencing a bit of a hangover, but I don't think lasts through the playoffs.  I think this team will need some (playoff) experience and probably a fairly big piece to be able to compete with Denver in a 7 game series.

Anything can happen, injury-wise, in the playoffs. If the Nuggets and whoever else are missing major components and the Mavs' core is healthy, watch out.

(12-13-2023, 10:30 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I think there is still so much unknown, its hard to answer that question.

Is this who Exum is?  Can he hit 3s at decent rate?  If so, I don't know how you keep him out of the starting lineup.
Is this who DJJ is?  He is taking twice the number of 3s at a wildly better percentage.  Can he come close to maintaining that?
Is Maxi done, or can he get back to his old self?  Can he stay healthy?
Can OMax develop into a rotation level player?  How soon?
Can Holmes hold down the backup center role?

I'm not sure we will know many of these answers by the TDL.  I think we will have a lot better grasp of all of these questions at the end of the season/playoffs.  Part of the reason why I am hesitant to do anything before then.

As someone who has watched Exum last season in Europe(probably more than 40 games both Euroleague and Aba league) I feel confident saying that Dante is a good shooter. He was a 40% 3pt shooter and a 90% FT shooter. His game was always more suited for the NBA, so yeah, don't expect 20+ pts, but around 12-13 pts on good efficiency with a great allaround game is not an unreasonable expectation.
I would prefer to bring Dante from the bench and have 2 of Luka, Kyrie and Dante on the floor at the same time

I think that on defense DJJ is what he is. When it comes to shooting, DJJ takes the majority of his threes from the corner, where he was already over 37% for his career.  Also for now, majority of his threes are open which helps his % . I also think that the starting role and playing carrer high MPG(more minutes means it's easier to get in your rhytm) helps him with his confidence. I can see his 3PT% drop 1-2%, but it's still great.

Maxi - I think/hope he still has 10-15 mpg in him, come playoffs.

I am 100% sure that Omax will be a rotation player, the defense he has shown is enough for him to stick in the league. Also from all that I have seen, he's a hard worker. When? I think he's a rotational player by next season

As for the Wiggins talk.. I don't trust his defense. He played with(what I consider) the best defensive player of the last 10 years in Draymond.

(12-13-2023, 12:47 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]The Mavs hit a grand slam on their draft pick, got two nearly starter-level players who mesh exceptionally well with Luka and Kai on vet min contracts, convinced THJ to make changes to his game that make him more of a winning player, got their first decent FA in a long time on a reasonable contract, and may have something with OMax down the road. If they can stay healthy, I'm actually far more bullish on this team's chances in the playoffs than KL and mvossman. The only real question marks are health, and if JKidd can be convinced to turn DP into DNP in favor of Holmes, and if a very cheap (tradewise) upgrade is available on Holmes. I really think that it's the offseason that they need to look at - perhaps to trade some of our most onerous contracts for expirers so that they get the full MLE to re-sign DJJ (not a star, and perhaps not a starter, but a perfect fit for the team), or start tampering for that OG SnT. If they have an offseason that nets us OG and keeps DJJ, I think we can start planning on the Larry.

This is pretty much where I am (except for the completely superfluous Powell bashing).  It is also where I’ve been since pre-season.  I had us top-4 in the west at 48 wins.  The surprise has been more about who has stepped up than whether someone would step up.

Boards are always going to be at least partially about the business of fantasy trades.  It is the nature of the beast.  More important than this player or that player for the current roster is ‘whether and when’.   The board has done a pretty good job of identifying this with people on either side of trying something or keeping powder dry.

If we are truly top 4 in the West, I agree with your assessment that anything can happen.  I probably lean toward trying to enhance my chances this year.  The team should have a pretty good idea what they have and what they don’t.  Clearly this summer they tried to do more than the amazing list of things they did do.  Doing nothing before the TDL is always the most likely path.  I’m just not sure the plan is to let it ride for a season and go big game hunting this summer.  I’m afraid we may be kicking ourselves in game six of the West Finals because we didn’t get that one more guy.

(12-13-2023, 12:47 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]The Mavs hit a grand slam on their draft pick, got two nearly starter-level players who mesh exceptionally well with Luka and Kai on vet min contracts, convinced THJ to make changes to his game that make him more of a winning player, got their first decent FA in a long time on a reasonable contract, and may have something with OMax down the road. If they can stay healthy, I'm actually far more bullish on this team's chances in the playoffs than KL and mvossman. The only real question marks are health, and if JKidd can be convinced to turn DP into DNP in favor of Holmes, and if a very cheap (tradewise) upgrade is available on Holmes. I really think that it's the offseason that they need to look at - perhaps to trade some of our most onerous contracts for expirers so that they get the full MLE to re-sign DJJ (not a star, and perhaps not a starter, but a perfect fit for the team), or start tampering for that OG SnT. If they have an offseason that nets us OG and keeps DJJ, I think we can start planning on the Larry.

Not only did they get a grand slam with their draft pick but also managed to get rid of a bad contract at the same time!

(12-13-2023, 02:58 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Clearly this summer they tried to do more than the amazing list of things they did do.  Doing nothing before the TDL is always the most likely path.  I’m just not sure the plan is to let it ride for a season and go big game hunting this summer.  I’m afraid we may be kicking ourselves in game six of the West Finals because we didn’t get that one more guy.

The first sentence is very true, and a good reminder that the current success wasn't designed all the way down to the last detail. Some of it was architectural, yes, but some of it is luck - lightning in a bottle. A good mix of people in the locker room, a good understanding of everyone's role and how they fit together, etc. 

I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I feel like your response to the better-than-expected start is along the lines of "well, that's the cue...this must be the time to go for it, because as we've seen, the plan doesn't always work this well." Is that a fair summation of where you are? If so, I think there's validity to it. 

I ALSO think there's validity to the idea that when something's working this well, even seemingly minor alterations of it (minor from our POV) can throw the magic of it all out of whack. This isn't a fair example - rather an extreme one - but many people here and on the discord were pretty convinced that losing Brunson wouldn't be that big of a deal, and we all know what a setback that was. I'm not bringing that up to compare to any of the deals getting pitched around here lately, just to illustrate that what seems minor to us might be MAJOR to the actual organization. 

Like I said, I think both POV's have validity. It's just a matter of choosing the right direction on a case by case basis, I suppose. I think the Mavs have something right now. Until I know how much of that something they have, I'm wary of disturbing it too much.

(12-13-2023, 03:17 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ] 
I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I feel like your response to the better-than-expected start is along the lines of "well, that's the cue...this must be the time to go for it, because as we've seen, the plan doesn't always work this well." Is that a fair summation of where you are? If so, I think there's validity to it. 

I ALSO think there's validity to the idea that when something's working this well, even seemingly minor alterations of it (minor from our POV) can throw the magic of it all out of whack.  

Like I said, I think both POV's have validity. It's just a matter of choosing the right direction on a case by case basis, 

You are close.  BTW, sorry I'm not always able to engage more in these conversations.  I'm semi-retired now, but busier than ever and my schedule is very inconsistent.  

I'd say that because they appear to be as good as I thought they'd be, they will probably end up on the line between losing a close second round series and making to the WCF (health permitting).  There appears (to me) to be a hole that needs to be filled.  I'd like to see it filled.  That's how I'd phrase it.

I get the chemistry thing and Brunson was probably missed as much off the court as he was on the court.  But it doesn't follow that one personnel change that harmed chemistry means all future personnel changes are doomed to a similar fate.  So, it is a real concern, but not so overwhelming that a quality front office can't make it work. 

I will say that finding the right deal is kind of difficult.  Some of what we've talked about in recent days (more theoretical than specific players):

1. If the target is a center (like when we pursued Naz), he can't be too good or too expensive.  Lively is the starter now and in the future.  I get that, but he's vulnerable to foul trouble and I hate to put a series on the back of Holmes/Maxi/Powell.  I actually like the Hartenstein idea, but that is probably a summer deal and we don't have a path to the MLE right now.
  
2. When I brought up some centers earlier, people told me we need a PF over a center.  But no one seems to really like any of the choices (even all-NBA guys get a thumbs down from some).  If I understand right, what I'm hearing is don't spend assets here because GWill is good and OMax is coming.  Personally I think either could play next to a J. Grant or Siakam type and the other one back up both spots, but that's me.

3. Some designate this need as a big wing rather than a PF.  The nuance is somewhat lost on me as GWill, DJJ and OMax are all probably best at guarding big wings.  Is this really the spot of greatest need?  OG is the poster child here, but I don't think we play that game until the summer (if then), so he's not really on my radar for an in-season trade.

The topic of Exum and his EB status a season from now came up earlier today.  EB maxes out at the average salary and that is very close to an MLE deal (but doesn't require you have the MLE available).  So, in the summer of 25, we should be able to offer him a nice multi-year deal.  The tricky one is DJJ.  Without a deal of some kind that lowers projected salary by about $12mm, we project to be around $5.25mm as our top offer.  We could do a two year with a PO and he could do an EB signing in 2025.  It may end up that the hole that needs to be filled (now or in the summer) is some kind of trade for his spot.  Of course, if Exum pans out at starter level and GWill is as good as you think he'll be, we may have our 4th and 5th starters already.  Even without DJJ, we still have Green, THJ and OMax off the bench (and some something from among Maxi/Holmes/Powell at center).

Dan, I'm all for a trade for a backup center, so long as 1) he isn't someone really expensive who will clutter our cap, and 2) presuming that '27 is not included.

---

Question for KL - would you trade THJ for DFS today? A one-for-one trade? THJ has elevated his value as well as his game, and you might just be able to talk Brooklyn into that (we all know they aren't getting two firsts and probably not even one). Does that hurt the current team's shot-creating too much? Or are Luka, Kai, Exum, and Hardy's potential enough?

(12-13-2023, 06:53 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I will say that finding the right deal is kind of difficult.  Some of what we've talked about in recent days (more theoretical than specific players):

1. If the target is a center (like when we pursued Naz), he can't be too good or too expensive.  Lively is the starter now and in the future.  I get that, but he's vulnerable to foul trouble and I hate to put a series on the back of Holmes/Maxi/Powell.  I actually like the Hartenstein idea, but that is probably a summer deal and we don't have a path to the MLE right now.
  
2. When I brought up some centers earlier, people told me we need a PF over a center.  But no one seems to really like any of the choices (even all-NBA guys get a thumbs down from some).  If I understand right, what I'm hearing is don't spend assets here because GWill is good and OMax is coming.  Personally I think either could play next to a J. Grant or Siakam type and the other one back up both spots, but that's me.

3. Some designate this need as a big wing rather than a PF.  The nuance is somewhat lost on me as GWill, DJJ and OMax are all probably best at guarding big wings.  Is this really the spot of greatest need?  OG is the poster child here, but I don't think we play that game until the summer (if then), so he's not really on my radar for an in-season trade.

Do you put any stock in the thought that the difficulty in reaching a consensus argues for delaying any transactional pursuit?

(12-13-2023, 06:53 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]  
 (even all-NBA guys get a thumbs down from some). 

Dan, I agree with pretty much everything you wrote here, but I would like to clarify one thing as you have brought this up a couple of times.  I would love to have Siakam on this team and that move alone would probably make us contenders.  However, he is going to be in extreme demand to the point that its likely to be an overpay.  If we are going to put all of our eggs into one basket in an overpay for a player, I would like it to be as good a fit as possible.  When I think about fit next to Luka, I am looking for defense first, then spacing, then shot creation.  Siakam is a good defender but not elite, not much of a floor spacer and his offensive creation is what is going to get him paid.  The fact that he is a better rebounder our PFs (except Luka) is a bonus, but just not high on my list.  The fact that he is going to be 30 soon is another hit given that the move will likely deprive us of assets for many years.  I just think someone like OG is a much better fit.

(12-13-2023, 07:16 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]

---

Question for KL - would you trade THJ for DFS today? A one-for-one trade? THJ has elevated his value as well as his game, and you might just be able to talk Brooklyn into that (we all know they aren't getting two firsts and probably not even one). Does that hurt the current team's shot-creating too much? Or are Luka, Kai, Exum, and Hardy's potential enough?

I would not. 

Understand me - I like DFS more than THJ, and would love to have DFS back. 

But, I think THJ's scoring off the bench is A) much more integral to this thing than people think and B) not as easily replaced by Curry, Hardy or both as I think people believe. Further, I think when DJJ, Green, Exum, THJ, Williams, Kleber, Lively and (yes, I'm this guy) O-Max are all healthy and have been together long enough to be connected, the NEED for a DFS might not be as dire as the early defensive ranking is leading us to believe as a group. 

All roads, for me, lead back to "what the hell have the Mavs actually got right now?" Until I know, I'm just enjoying the ride if I'm a decision maker. Most of you are probably glad I'm not, lol.

Scott, would YOU do that deal?

Not directed at me but I will answer that I would NOT trade THJ for DFS. I don’t see Hardy as ready to be the Timmy replacement, if he ever is. Tim converts incredibly difficult shots on the move and can elevate to do it in a way I don’t see Hardy ever being quite able to replicate. We have lots of good standtill shooters but a guy that can reasonably reliably hit off balance shots off of screens has real value. 

I also think that we need a step up from Dodo at the 4, and I love the guy. I think we need our wing stopper (as good as DJJ, Grant Williams, Maxi, Dorian have looked over the years) and ideally this player operates on both timelines. The current Kyrie and post-Kyrie teams. Feeling really good about OMax being that guy eventually, but less sure it will occur in the Kyrie window. There is a reason everyone keeps saying OG in these convos and it’s because he is a legit first team defense type and he is young and he is a playoff seasoned vet. Rare combination. And Herb Jones isn’t available anytime in the foreseeable future. 

I think I would do everything I could to hold onto Lively(obviously,) Omax and Green. All 3 have NBA athleticism, don’t need the ball to make an impact, young, strong work ethic. To me Hardy is the one to move if it’s necessary. Eventually Omax will be the Maxi 4 and small ball 5 spot.

(12-13-2023, 08:11 PM)MarkAguirreWrathofGod Wrote: [ -> ]Not directed at me but I will answer that I would NOT trade THJ for DFS. I don’t see Hardy as ready to be the Timmy replacement, if he ever is. Tim converts incredibly difficult shots on the move and can elevate to do it in a way I don’t see Hardy ever being quite able to replicate. We have lots of good standtill shooters but a guy that can reasonably reliably hit off balance shots off of screens has real value. 

I think I would do everything I could to hold onto Lively(obviously,) Omax and Green. All 3 have NBA athleticism, don’t need the ball to make an impact, young, strong work ethic. To me Hardy is the one to move if it’s necessary. Eventually Omax will be the Maxi 4 and small ball 5 spot.

Wow, this might be the first time I've read an opinion on Hardaway around here that I feel accurately captures the reality of who he is to this team. I might cry some happy tears. 

I'm in lockstep with you on the youngsters, too. It's not that I think Hardy is hopeless, but I'm starting to feel like the team is already too good to allow him the kind of learning on the job it's going to take as a ball-handler. He might be a better fit somewhere else.