If my opinions or responses bother you so much, you don't feel like debating with me or just don't like me, you can always put me on ignore. But I feel pretty insulted that you choose to rather get personal instead of debating arguments.
(05-22-2023, 08:17 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Mavs got Kyrie on a team for 6 months. He is FA now. They can't force him to resign with them, if he doesn't want to. They are also not obliged to take back trash to get him to a team he would want. Mavs are not much more in a driver seat than Lakers. I outlined possibilities Kyrie has several times.
Kyrie decides first (which I also agree Mavs are the most likely landing spot, but this week, we’re exploring the possibilities that we are not the #1 choice and what that looks like). After that, we know whether or not that team has cap space to sign him outright. If they do? Too bad, so sad, maybe we can ease the burden and get a couple seconds to do so. If they don’t? That team has very little leverage except that Kyrie chose them over the Mavs.
If the Mavs don’t like the deal, Kyrie can find another team, or stay with us (that still isn’t off the table). The Mavs won’t like the deal unless, at the bare minimum, it makes us more than whole on the deal we made to get him. It’s as simple as that. None of the deals you cite have the previous team acquiring the player at the previous TDL using positive assets. This would be a unique situation, not easily explained away by using deals that don’t fit this situation.
(05-22-2023, 08:31 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]If my opinions or responses bother you so much, you don't feel like debating with me or just don't like me, you can always put me on ignore. But I feel pretty insulted that you choose to rather get personal instead of debating arguments.
I got fed up and had a moment. I’m sorry.
(05-22-2023, 08:38 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Kyrie decides first (which I also agree Mavs are the most likely landing spot, but this week, we’re exploring the possibilities that we are not the #1 choice and what that looks like). After that, we know whether or not that team has cap space to sign him outright. If they do? Too bad, so sad, maybe we can ease the burden and get a couple seconds to do so. If they don’t? That team has very little leverage except that Kyrie chose them over the Mavs.
If the Mavs don’t like the deal, Kyrie can find another team, or stay with us (that still isn’t off the table). The Mavs won’t like the deal unless, at the bare minimum, it makes us more than whole on the deal we made to get him. It’s as simple as that. None of the deals you cite have the previous team acquiring the player at the previous TDL using positive assets. This would be a unique situation, not easily explained away by using deals that don’t fit this situation.
Butler was traded to Philly for RoCo, who was a huge positive at the time, Saric who was scoring over 10 ppg for Philly and some other stuff. He was SnT to Miami half a year later for JRich.
As you said, Kyrie has options. And if the Mavs play hardball (I think your proposal is playing hardball), he can also pick one of the other options he has (take less salary, go to a third team who does have cap space or sign a contract with Mavs and just create problems). Just out of spite. And he does seem like a guy very capable of doing that. As Mavs, I would rather take something than play total hardball and end up with nothing. In my opinion, the only possible positive outcome for Mavs is to resign Kyrie with him actually wanting to be here. I mean, since they did chose to trade for him. Wouldn't be my move at all, but they did what they did.
I am sorry if I come too hard at times. But I really like to discuss fantasy trades. Please, don't take it personally, I am just discussing ideas.
(05-22-2023, 08:42 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Butler was traded to Philly for RoCo, who was a huge positive at the time, Saric who was scoring over 10 ppg for Philly and some other stuff. He was SnT to Miami half a year later for JRich.
Butler also wore out his welcome at Phi that quickly and Phi chose to stay with Simmons instead of him. RoCo was about on par with DFS, Dario and Bayless were not on par with Dinwiddie and a second is not on par with an unprotected first and 2 SRPs. I’d say that was quite a bit more and on top of that, Kyrie hasn’t worn out his welcome here.
(05-22-2023, 08:50 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]As you said, Kyrie has options. And if the Mavs play hardball (I think your proposal is playing hardball), he can also pick one of the other options he has (take less salary, go to a third team who does have cap space or sign a contract with Mavs and just create problems). Just out of spite. And he does seem like a guy very capable of doing that. As Mavs, I would rather take something than play total hardball and end up with nothing. In my opinion, the only possible positive outcome for Mavs is to resign Kyrie with him actually wanting to be here. I mean, since they did chose to trade for him. Wouldn't be my move at all, but they did what they did.
I am sorry if I come too hard at times. But I really like to discuss fantasy trades. Please, don't take it personally, I am just discussing ideas.
I just think the Mavs have every right to play hard ball (if given the chance) and if the team Kyrie chooses instead of the Mavs doesn’t think he is worth the trouble in fully acquiring him, that’s disrespect too. I think he can respect a team that never wanted him to leave and paid good assets to acquire playing hard ball. Might even push him back to us.
The Butler trade also happened in November, giving more time to evaluate. We got Kyrie in Feb during a time that Luka was hurt and barely got to see what could have been.
(05-22-2023, 09:07 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Butler also wore out his welcome at Phi that quickly and Phi chose to stay with Simmons instead of him. RoCo was about on par with DFS, Dario and Bayless were not on par with Dinwiddie and a second is not on par with an unprotected first and 2 SRPs. I’d say that was quite a bit more and on top of that, Kyrie hasn’t worn out his welcome here.
RoCo made 1st team all defense a few month prior to the trade and was on a cheap longterm contract. Would argue that among the mentioned guys (DFS, Dinwiddie) he was by far the most valuable asset. Obviously not enough to close the gap between a 2nd and 1st.
(05-22-2023, 09:22 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]RoCo made 1st team all defense a few month prior to the trade and was on a cheap longterm contract. Would argue that among the mentioned guys (DFS, Dinwiddie) he was by far the most valuable asset. Obviously not enough to close the gap between a 2nd and 1st.
I can agree with that. I think the gap from SD to Saric and Bayless is plenty bridge enough for the difference between DFS and RoCo. That leaves the large disparity between the picks.
(05-22-2023, 08:42 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]He was SnT to Miami half a year later for JRich.
There's a big piece of info missing in that recap.
Butler did not force his way to MIA. PHI had decided they did NOT want Butler (they didn't want any part of the max $33M salary he was going to command from someone), so he was going to walk anyway. PHI's stance was "We will cooperate if we only have to take a player(s) we can use and like." They decided they liked JRich who looked like he was turning into a good 2-way combo guard or small wing (and whose existing $10M salary looked like it might be a bargain).
In contrast, the Mavs want to keep Kyrie. And it's questionable whether there's anyone LA could send that the Mavs would really want (we can't lose sight of the fact that players like Russell, Bamba and Hachimura aren't under contract and might be looking for far more than they would be worth to the Mavs).
(05-22-2023, 11:03 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]In contrast, the Mavs want to keep Kyrie. And it's questionable whether there's anyone LA could send that the Mavs would really want (we can't lose sight of the fact that players like Russell, Bamba and Hachimura aren't under contract and might be looking for far more than they would be worth to the Mavs).
I am down with overpaying Russell, Bamba, and Hachimura to accomplish a KI trade, I simply counter with McGee and Bertans as part of the process and see where we get in negotiations. As I estimate the the FA market, those players are going to face some of the problems C-Wood is due to face as well: Teams that would be willing to roll out salary to take them are not exactly the types of teams that have been real competitive; The competitive teams do not have a lot of cap space to sign outright, and in order to facilitate player movement, there will be a lot of S&T negotiation this summer. Certainly my HOPE for the end of the C-Wood process.
(05-22-2023, 08:50 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] As Mavs, I would rather take something than play total hardball and end up with nothing.
Assume all the required disclosures...I don't think Kyrie is leaving...I don't think a trade to LAL is likely ect. ect.
Are we missing an in-between option here. Just thinking out loud as I don't have time to fully develop it:
1. Teams with cap room will have to use it or miss out on tax payments next season.
2. The FA market isn't great.
3. LA doesn't have to send all of their garbage to Dallas in a Kyrie deal. There will be teams who might take a year of Beasley and Bamba to fill their cap.
4. LAL has the 17th pick to sweeten any such third party deal
5. It is probably a bad idea to count on double S&T's in a deal this big
6. FG tells us there will be a 110% trade premium for going over the first apron
I think there are probably multiple ways to work out something where Kyrie ends up in LA without having to depend on any of the S&T guys coming here from LA. Beasley and Bamba and Vandy and 17 (once signed) can get Irving to $38.6mm using the 110% rule. LA would have between $43mm and $53mm to keep Rui and Reaves and sign minimums to finish out the roster.
Dallas can pick and choose what to take from all of that and send what they don't want to a cap room team.
Does Dallas want only Vandy and cap room with Bamba and Beasley going elsewhere? What will Poeltl get this summer?
How about Vandy, Bamba and the pick stays in Dallas and we send Beasley away and take back a $16.5mm TPE (plus the MLE). Now we have 10 and 17 and we have our backup 5 in Bamba and starting 'big wing' in Vandy and whatever else you can add with the TPE and the MLE.
Nothing is going to look good in any Kyrie gone scenario. But, I think there is a world were we can add some quality depth AND stay relatively young.
(05-22-2023, 01:37 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]How about Vandy, Bamba and the pick stays in Dallas and we send Beasley away and take back a $16.5mm TPE (plus the MLE). Now we have 10 and 17 and we have our backup 5 in Bamba and starting 'big wing' in Vandy
Nothing is going to look good in any Kyrie gone scenario.
I agree this is a realistic outcome if Kyrie would want to go to Lakers.
(05-22-2023, 01:37 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Assume all the required disclosures...I don't think Kyrie is leaving...I don't think a trade to LAL is likely ect. ect.
Are we missing an in-between option here. Just thinking out loud as I don't have time to fully develop it:
1. Teams with cap room will have to use it or miss out on tax payments next season.
2. The FA market isn't great.
3. LA doesn't have to send all of their garbage to Dallas in a Kyrie deal. There will be teams who might take a year of Beasley and Bamba to fill their cap.
4. LAL has the 17th pick to sweeten any such third party deal
5. It is probably a bad idea to count on double S&T's in a deal this big
6. FG tells us there will be a 110% trade premium for going over the first apron
I think there are probably multiple ways to work out something where Kyrie ends up in LA without having to depend on any of the S&T guys coming here from LA. Beasley and Bamba and Vandy and 17 (once signed) can get Irving to $38.6mm using the 110% rule. LA would have between $43mm and $53mm to keep Rui and Reaves and sign minimums to finish out the roster.
Dallas can pick and choose what to take from all of that and send what they don't want to a cap room team.
Does Dallas want only Vandy and cap room with Bamba and Beasley going elsewhere? What will Poeltl get this summer?
How about Vandy, Bamba and the pick stays in Dallas and we send Beasley away and take back a $16.5mm TPE (plus the MLE). Now we have 10 and 17 and we have our backup 5 in Bamba and starting 'big wing' in Vandy and whatever else you can add with the TPE and the MLE.
Nothing is going to look good in any Kyrie gone scenario. But, I think there is a world were we can add some quality depth AND stay relatively young.
I always appreciate your creative insights on any potential scenario. Especially since it's always grounded.
But if Kyrie is gone and the Mavs don't get back at least 2 starter level guys, the Luka era is over. 10+17 and scraps isn't going to net any good star that doesn't have major issues. 16.5 TPE is just air that isn't really useful as teams aren't just going to hand away a good player just because of tax ramifications.
The way I see it, ANY Laker deal that doesn't involve all their firsts, Reeves+Rui (which we know won't happen), is effectively throwing in the towel and the Mavs should trade Luka.
I'm just at that point. We need home runs. Not striking out but getting a couple of base steals.
(05-22-2023, 01:37 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]How about Vandy, Bamba and the pick stays in Dallas and we send Beasley away and take back a $16.5mm TPE (plus the MLE). Now we have 10 and 17 and we have our backup 5 in Bamba and starting 'big wing' in Vandy and whatever else you can add with the TPE and the MLE.
Excuse the ignorant question, because I have been much too busy to wrap my head around the "why" of all of this from the Lakers' perspective, haven't really been following the conversation here closely and have no level of comfort with the math/economics involved in this situation, but...
...would it be possible to do something like this with the Mavs getting Vanderbilt and Beasley? I'm not at all interested in Bamba.
(05-22-2023, 01:49 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Excuse the ignorant question, because I have been much too busy to wrap my head around the "why" of all of this from the Lakers' perspective, haven't really been following the conversation here closely and have no level of comfort with the math/economics involved in this situation, but...
...would it be possible to do something like this with the Mavs getting Vanderbilt and Beasley? I'm not at all interested in Bamba.
I tried to make it clear that there are all sorts of mix and match opportunities here if you involve a third team with cap room (which is easier than ever given the new minimum payroll rules).
Today's Lowe post with Bobby Marks went through a cap room for Kyrie scenario (Kyrie takes in the lower 30's and they use the Austin Reaves cap hold to go over the cap afterwards, use the Room MLE and fill in with minimums). Marks questioned the ability for LA to hold up during the regular season with so much reliance on their aging stars. One thing it showed is Kyrie doesn't have to go to some crap cap room team to get into the $30mm area nor does he have to take the MLE from a good team.
Marks then went through S&T ideas and it was pretty ugly for Dallas (so, the question here isn't the LA perspective). They both turned up their noses pretty quickly from the Dallas perspective even if LA threw in #17 and 2029. As I said originally, there is no pretty outcome if Kyrie doesn't want to stay. The question is what can you do with the pieces to recover if that is what eventually happens (again, my presumption is it won't...just talking here).
Yeah people trying way too hard to find alternatives to Kyrie when they're all downgrades and a path towards Luka requesting a trade out of here even sooner
(05-22-2023, 04:44 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]I tried to make it clear that there are all sorts of mix and match opportunities here if you involve a third team with cap room (which is easier than ever given the new minimum payroll rules).
Today's Lowe post with Bobby Marks went through a cap room for Kyrie scenario (Kyrie takes in the lower 30's and they use the Austin Reaves cap hold to go over the cap afterwards, use the Room MLE and fill in with minimums). Marks questioned the ability for LA to hold up during the regular season with so much reliance on their aging stars. One thing it showed is Kyrie doesn't have to go to some crap cap room team to get into the $30mm area nor does he have to take the MLE from a good team.
Marks then went through S&T ideas and it was pretty ugly for Dallas (so, the question here isn't the LA perspective). They both turned up their noses pretty quickly from the Dallas perspective even if LA threw in #17 and 2029. As I said originally, there is no pretty outcome if Kyrie doesn't want to stay. The question is what can you do with the pieces to recover if that is what eventually happens (again, my presumption is it won't...just talking here).
Sure looks like the water is flowing downhill to a Kyrie re-sign.
Will he take less than his max, in order to facilitate a better team? What does Kyrie really want, at this point in his career? Seems like he's getting to the point where legacy is important. He's made a lot of money ($158m), won some awards, and won a ring. Maybe a couple more rings before he's done?
Dallas is a pretty low-drama, low-pressure situation, especially compared to Brooklyn or the Lakers. The ownership and front office have historically been very stable. Plenty of anti-vaxxers around. Texas mostly lets you be you. I can see him plugging in here over the long term.
Sorry, @Dan, if my question offended you. I even said I hadn’t been following the discussion very closely. In the future, I’ll just keep my beak out of the discussion unless I’m better informed. I haven’t had the time to keep up with these super threads lately, unfortunately.
I know you said this already (that he’s staying), but I don’t think these hypotheticals really matter, anyway. There isn’t a shred of doubt in my mind that the basic framework of a new contract for Irving to re-sign in Dallas wasn’t already tactfully set in place before the deal went down. I said as much before and immediately after the trade happened.
But, it’s still fun to imagine the possibilities, so thanks for taking the time to lay them out!
(05-22-2023, 04:51 PM)Jym Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah people trying way too hard to find alternatives to Kyrie when they're all downgrades and a path towards Luka requesting a trade out of here even sooner
Totally agree. They went all in on Kyrie, and even Cuban wouldn’t have done that if he weren’t sure he wanted to invest in the next contract.
(05-22-2023, 08:42 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Butler was traded to Philly for RoCo, who was a huge positive at the time, Saric who was scoring over 10 ppg for Philly and some other stuff. He was SnT to Miami half a year later for JRich.
Philly choose Harris over Butler. They didn't think Butler was a max player any longer with his injuries and missing games. The only reason he ended up on the Heat was they were willing to offer him a max salary. If Philly would have made the same offer he would be in Philly today.
In the Kyrie situation I don't see them not meeting his demands or beating what ever he is offered in FA.