Cautionary tale for when we get full access to our picks again.
Walker Kessler just had a 20-20 game for the Jazz in a win over the T Wolves.
What a brutal trade the Gobert trade has been for Minnesota so far
(01-16-2023, 06:26 PM)MrGoat Wrote: [ -> ]What a brutal trade the Gobert trade has been for Minnesota so far
It was an extinction level event for several decision makers and possibly an entire era of a basketball team. Glad it's not the Mavs, because it makes some of our team's mistakes seem tame by comparison and we'll get to enjoy watching it play out from afar.
The price they paid was ridiculous and everyone knew it from the jump, but I can understand wanting to go for a win-now strategy since they'd built a core of Towns, Ant and D'Lo. Gobert wouldn't have been my choice to use on those assets, not even my choice from that Utah squad. This was just the Wolves misguided attempt at a "Jrue Holiday trade". The difference and far great danger for the Mavs once they do have all of their draft capital back is that they haven't built their core outside of Luka.
(01-16-2023, 06:26 PM)MrGoat Wrote: [ -> ]Cautionary tale for when we get full access to our picks again.
Walker Kessler just had a 20-20 game for the Jazz in a win over the T Wolves.
What a brutal trade the Gobert trade has been for Minnesota so far
There was a lot of debate about Kessler this off-season. Turns out, he is going to be really good. Would love to have a guy like that. The good thing is, those type of players are devalued and typically fall in the draft. If you are smart, you can find a solid, low cost rotation player with upside.
(01-16-2023, 06:40 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]The price they paid was ridiculous and everyone knew it from the jump, but I can understand wanting to go for a win-now strategy since they'd built a core of Towns, Ant and D'Lo. Gobert wouldn't have been my choice to use on those assets, not even my choice from that Utah squad. This was just the Wolves misguided attempt at a "Jrue Holiday trade". The difference and far great danger for the Mavs once they do have all of their draft capital back is that they haven't built their core outside of Luka.
I can understand this line of thinking re: Mavs vs. Wolves situations. I don't overtly disagree, other than to point out that as high as you are on that young core in Minnesota (and I get why) and as low as you are on the Mavs core (and I get why) the Mavs have been the better team. My point being that those Minnesota players either don't know how to win or are so ill-fitting that they
can't really say they have a core in place.
I think Russell is a goner at this deadline, and the Gobert trade is part of why I believe that. That's just one example of what I mean about the future fallout from that terrible trade. Are they really ready to start handing out huge contracts to members of their
current team? Do those guys even want to stay there? The young players with the potential of replacing the bloated contracts of the ill-fitting name guys they have are mostly in Utah now.
It's hard for me to be over-the-top positive and take a stand on the quality of the Mavs roster because I'm not sure I understand Kidd's plan (if there is one) for how the pieces are all supposed to fit together, BUT...count me in the camp that still believes in DFS, Kleber, Green, Powell, THJ and to a lesser extent Dinwiddie, too. I think if they can get Wood settled, both culturally and contractually, and they catch a little luck with Hardy they might be closer to a path to improvement than the current fan temp would indicate.
(01-16-2023, 07:10 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I can understand this line of thinking re: Mavs vs. Wolves situations. I don't overtly disagree, other than to point out that as high as you are on that young core in Minnesota (and I get why) and as low as you are on the Mavs core (and I get why) the Mavs have been the better team. My point being that those Minnesota players either don't know how to win or are so ill-fitting that they can't really say they have a core in place.
I think Russell is a goner at this deadline, and the Gobert trade is part of why I believe that. That's just one example of what I mean about the future fallout from that terrible trade. Are they really ready to start handing out huge contracts to members of their current team? Do those guys even want to stay there? The young players with the potential of replacing the bloated contracts of the ill-fitting name guys they have are mostly in Utah now.
It's hard for me to be over-the-top positive and take a stand on the quality of the Mavs roster because I'm not sure I understand Kidd's plan (if there is one) for how the pieces are all supposed to fit together, BUT...count me in the camp that still believes in DFS, Kleber, Green, Powell, THJ and to a lesser extent Dinwiddie, too. I think if they can get Wood settled, both culturally and contractually, and they catch a little luck with Hardy they might be closer to a path to improvement than the current fan temp would indicate.
Mavs have been better because Towns is no Luka.
And the point you bring up about D'Lo, I'm certain the Wolves have the same fears about D'Lo and more importantly Towns. That's why they went all in. To prove to Towns that they care committed to winning. The problem is who the traded for. Imagine the Wolves with Mitchell instead. But the good news for them is that if this doesn't work out, they can trade Towns for assets and build around Ant (probably what I would have done anyway but I'm not Towns fan).
Mavs will have the luxury of trading Luka for a haul eventually but we don't have Ant to fall back on. No disrespect to Hardy.
I'm also not disrespecting the Mavericks role players. I love Maxi and DFS. Green has some potential (finally). But those guys are mortar and not bricks. THJ and Din are kind of inbetweeners but they aren't good enough to carry this team if Luka is out. I'd put Wood in that same camp. Others here wouldn't and I get why. There are times when he looks like a less athletically gifted KD except with better post moves. And then there is the other times when you understand why he's been on so many teams. Maybe he can be your third guy but certainly your fourth. Long term investment in him is still frightening.
We have a really bad team right now. Unlucky with injuries sure, but something is really off. I just think back to last year and if this team faced Utah in the first round. We'd have been down 0-3 before Luka suited up.
(01-16-2023, 07:28 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]We have a really bad team right now. Unlucky with injuries sure, but something is really off. I just think back to last year and if this team faced Utah in the first round. We'd have been down 0-3 before Luka suited up.
Agreed (with this and a lot of the other points). I'm just not so sure it's so far gone that answer is to blow it up. I think it's quite possible this all looks much, much better in a month.
What this team badly needs (and misses) is the guy who can lead/carry them when Luka isn't playing. That can mean a game like last night, where Luka's out -- but it also is vital when Luka sits, and even when Luka is playing (so he doesn't have to be pulling all the weight possession after possession). There's really no one to lead this team when Luka isn't on the floor with the ball.
Brunson wanted to be Luka, I get that. That couldn't happen here. But he became a GREAT complement to Luka, which makes LUKA better (as well as the whole team), and until they find a replacement, it's likely to be really hard. And it might take way longer than we like. Heck, it took them almost 4 seasons for Brunson to turn into that guy.
I know we need a C and a 2-way wing and more. But I keep coming back to what I felt in the summer. I think the games keep showing us that the Brunson replacement is the biggest hole on this roster, and finding another Brunson somehow is their quickest route to raising their ceiling.
I was trying to leave JB out of this, but since we are here. We certainly miss the player. With the Mavs "swapping" JB for Wood, I thought there was potential for the team to be as good as the previous year, but different but also potential to be a worse team. Turns out the second is true. A lot of that has to do with JB as a player, but I can't help but think we are missing his leadership the most.
Something is off with this team. What's new? Din's role. McGee. Wood. We know about McGee's past maturity issues. We know Washington was eager to get rid of both of Din and Bertans and we know some of that had to do with their locker room. We know teams have treated Wood like a hot potato. We've heard nothing and have really seen nothing to give us indicators that these guys are causing issues. What's missing? JB.
And a little backpedaling to McGee. I'm not trying to start an apology tour for him He's mostly been dreadful, but I don't think he's really been given a fair shake and that was even before the season started. We saw clips of Mavs scrimmages with Luka calling him "Joel" which is not only disrespectful but also tells you how much use Luka has for him as a basketball player. And while Luka has often said he doesn't want to be involved in the front office, if you are going to treat potential teammates that way, maybe it's time the MBT and he consult each other before future signings. This attitude is an outlier for him so I'm willing to give him a pass, but it is just more bad vibes for this season.
I think Luka is starting to understand, try as he might, that he has no shot of winning with this team as it is constructed. His body language has been all over the place. Just compare his mannerisms on his national team this past summer to this season. It's night and day.
(01-16-2023, 07:55 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I know we need a C and a 2-way wing and more. But I keep coming back to what I felt in the summer. I think the games keep showing us that the Brunson replacement is the biggest hole on this roster, and finding another Brunson somehow is their quickest route to raising their ceiling.
I think it is the quickest way to raise the floor. As we saw last season. Another borderline allstar that can carry the offense for stretches immediately turns the Mavs into a 50+ wins team but as we saw last season it did not make a difference when they faced the Warriors.
That´s when the other needs you mentioned come into play. When the best teams in the league come out with rotations that feature 2-3 all NBA level players. Multiple creators. Without any defensive liability (more likely multiple all defense team candidates).
When the Mavs cannot hide their own liabilities on both ends. When teams target the weakest defender all game long. Or completly take role players like Bullock, DFS and Kleber out of the game because they cannot do anything with the ball in their hands.
(01-16-2023, 08:17 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I was trying to leave JB out of this, but since we are here. We certainly miss the player. With the Mavs "swapping" JB for Wood, I thought there was potential for the team to be as good as the previous year, but different but also potential to be a worse team. Turns out the second is true. A lot of that has to do with JB as a player, but I can't help but think we are missing his leadership the most.
Something is off with this team. What's new? Din's role. McGee. Wood. We know about McGee's past maturity issues. We know Washington was eager to get rid of both of Din and Bertans and we know some of that had to do with their locker room. We know teams have treated Wood like a hot potato. We've heard nothing and have really seen nothing to give us indicators that these guys are causing issues. What's missing? JB.
And a little backpedaling to McGee. I'm not trying to start an apology tour for him He's mostly been dreadful, but I don't think he's really been given a fair shake and that was even before the season started. We saw clips of Mavs scrimmages with Luka calling him "Joel" which is not only disrespectful but also tells you how much use Luka has for him as a basketball player. And while Luka has often said he doesn't want to be involved in the front office, if you are going to treat potential teammates that way, maybe it's time the MBT and he consult each other before future signings. This attitude is an outlier for him so I'm willing to give him a pass, but it is just more bad vibes for this season.
I think Luka is starting to understand, try as he might, that he has no shot of winning with this team as it is constructed. His body language has been all over the place. Just compare his mannerisms on his national team this past summer to this season. It's night and day.
There's other things missing than JB. DFS wasn't playing well even before he got hurt. Bullock has been horrendous for most of the year. Having two key cogs from last year regress like that has hurt a lot. We'd have really been up a creek if we didn't get Wood. And if it's true that Wood would be willing to take the 4/77 instead of waiting to hit the open market for a chance at more that is very concerning that we haven't offered him that very reasonable extension yet.
(01-16-2023, 08:26 PM)MrGoat Wrote: [ -> ]There's other things missing than JB. DFS wasn't playing well even before he got hurt. Bullock has been horrendous for most of the year. Having two key cogs from last year regress like that has hurt a lot. We'd have really been up a creek if we didn't get Wood. And if it's true that Wood would be willing to take the 4/77 instead of waiting to hit the open market for a chance at more that is very concerning that we haven't offered him that very reasonable extension yet.
DFS and Bullock aren't missing. They are part of what is off with the team. Some of that is natural with the Din's role being elevated and Wood being inserted into the offense. Touches are going to be distributed differently. Everyone learning to play in a post-JB world is going to take time. If you want to be optimistic, you can say that learning curve has widened with all the injuries. I'm just not optimistic and I see a bad team being kept afloat with a generational talent.
(01-16-2023, 08:42 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]DFS and Bullock aren't missing. They are part of what is off with the team. Some of that is natural with the Din's role being elevated and Wood being inserted into the offense. Touches are going to be distributed differently. Everyone learning to play in a post-JB world is going to take time. If you want to be optimistic, you can say that learning curve has widened with all the injuries. I'm just not optimistic and I see a bad team being kept afloat with a generational talent.
For the first time in his career the +/- numbers support this case. The team collapses when he isn´t on the floor. Leading to Kidd´s choice to just play Luka without any rest.
He is averaging 40.3 minutes in january. Played the entire second half (plus OT) in multiple games. And leads the entire league in mpg.
(01-16-2023, 08:17 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I was trying to leave JB out of this, but since we are here. We certainly miss the player. With the Mavs "swapping" JB for Wood, I thought there was potential for the team to be as good as the previous year, but different but also potential to be a worse team. Turns out the second is true. A lot of that has to do with JB as a player, but I can't help but think we are missing his leadership the most.
Something is off with this team. What's new? Din's role. McGee. Wood. We know about McGee's past maturity issues. We know Washington was eager to get rid of both of Din and Bertans and we know some of that had to do with their locker room. We know teams have treated Wood like a hot potato. We've heard nothing and have really seen nothing to give us indicators that these guys are causing issues. What's missing? JB.
And a little backpedaling to McGee. I'm not trying to start an apology tour for him He's mostly been dreadful, but I don't think he's really been given a fair shake and that was even before the season started. We saw clips of Mavs scrimmages with Luka calling him "Joel" which is not only disrespectful but also tells you how much use Luka has for him as a basketball player.
I have sat through 20 years of NBA professionals and fans misspelling and pronouncing Dirk´s name. I doubt there was any malicious intent on Luka´s part. He simply didn´t know the bum's name. And that was intended disrespect.
(01-16-2023, 08:53 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]For the first time in his career the +/- numbers support this case. The team collapses when he isn´t on the floor. Leading to Kidd´s choice to just play Luka without any rest.
He is averaging 40.3 minutes in january. Played the entire second half (plus OT) in multiple games. And leads the entire league in mpg.
I assume the graphics are the same on all broadcasts? Anyway the Blazers broadcast showed that the Mavs are the #1 offensive team, when Luka is on the floor and 30th, when he is not. LOL.
(01-16-2023, 09:15 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]He simply didn´t know the bum's name.
Zero chance that is true.
(01-16-2023, 09:15 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]I have sat through 20 years of NBA professionals and fans misspelling and pronouncing Dirk´s name. I doubt there was any malicious intent on Luka´s part. He simply didn´t know the bum's name. And that was intended disrespect.
I assume the graphics are the same on all broadcasts? Anyway the Blazers broadcast showed that the Mavs are the #1 offensive team, when Luka is on the floor and 30th, when he is not. LOL.
They are also #1 defensive team with Josh Green on the floor, and 28th when he isn't.
And the gap is +5.6 for Green on the Grizzlies and only Luka +0.5 on the Celtics.
Just saying
(01-16-2023, 10:10 PM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]They are also #1 defensive team with Josh Green on the floor, and 28th when he isn't.
And the gap is +5.6 for Green on the Grizzlies and only Luka +0.5 on the Celtics.
Just saying
So you saying in the play-offs we put Luka and Green on the floor together for 48 minutes, we are #1 in everything.
(01-16-2023, 10:22 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]So you saying in the play-offs we put Luka and Green on the floor together for 48 minutes, we are #1 in everything.
Aw, the old straw-man plus/minus narrative makes its daily appearance.
How did Christian Wood do in +/- last night?
![[Image: nba-jimmy-butler.gif]](https://media.tenor.com/d4NK6LDwUSoAAAAM/nba-jimmy-butler.gif)
(01-16-2023, 10:22 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]So you saying in the play-offs we put Luka and Green on the floor together for 48 minutes, we are #1 in everything.
No i am just saying Green impact might been underrated despite "the hype", despite avg only ~ 20 min a night. And being without Green in 4 out of the 5 no Luka games makes it even harder to win those.
Green is replacing a bit of the dynamic Bullock/DFS of last season so far. Without the injury and more of the same, he would prolly still have a fairly decent plus/minus lead. Not sure if you can luck yourself into a good plus/minus on a decent sample size.
While everyone acting now Luka + Brunson + scrubs lead the Mavs to the WCF, the team defense was probably better than the team offense last season. And arguing Luka / Brunson carried the D is a bit blasphemy.
DFS/Bullock were 1st and 2nd in +/- in the regular season and playoffs. Its almost like people forget that those duo was fairly important too. Because Bullock has been hot garbage and DFS has been a bit underwhelming too until the injury.
Luka net is +20 with Green and + 0.38 without him
Wood net is +12.5 with Green and -3.4 without him
DFS net is +14.85 with Green and -2.8 without him
Looking at the DFS net, one could argue Kidd should have really tried to bench Bullock after 10 games and tried it with Green/DFS as the new defensive combo in the starting lineup. Last season Reggie + DFS were +9 on the floor, on a high number of minutes. And the team was -0.2 net without them.
This season that net dipped to from +9 to -1.39 together.