(07-14-2022, 08:30 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Oh, for sure. This is probably the deepest the NBA has been in my lifetime when it comes to cores you can talk yourself into being scared of. There are really only 1-2 bad teams, on paper.
The biggest threats to leapfrog Dallas, imo, are Denver, New Orleans and the Clippers.
They valued him over Ayton, because Simmons said (and Rusilo agreed): "I'd rather have Brunson at $25 million than Ayton on a MAX."
I honestly can't believe there are people here who think Brunson got overpaid. When you look at the declining contract and think about how much the cap is going to go up...it's going to be a bargain, imo.
Non-expert here, but I don’t think that list makes me feel any kind of way re: Brunson’s contract. Some of those equivalent names could be overpays at $25M AAV. Think someone pointed out that contract puts him around #40 in the league and that’s 20-30 spots high in my opinion. Still disappointed Mavs didn’t re-sign Brunson because although I think he’s not valuable enough to live up to that contract with the Mavs
on the court (primarily based on fit), he was that valuable as a signed asset to swap for a few picks at the next opportunity.
In other words, I understand the Mavs thinking that contract is too rich but they should’ve offered the money when the alternative is nothing.
Sure, that contract looks better if/when the cap goes up but relying on a rising tide to lift a particular boat isn’t great financial management (especially since we’ve overpaid in recent history and the tax amplifies those mistakes). But again, something is better than nothing after they voluntarily backed themselves in a corner. In retrospect, they should have aggressively shopped him at the start of the season, extended much earlier, or ensured he was an RFA so they at least get a SNT out of his departure.
(07-14-2022, 12:45 PM)DallasMaverick Wrote: [ -> ]Ayton?
What about him? Phoenix will certainly not let him walk for nothing...
(07-14-2022, 08:30 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Oh, for sure. This is probably the deepest the NBA has been in my lifetime when it comes to cores you can talk yourself into being scared of. There are really only 1-2 bad teams, on paper.
The biggest threats to leapfrog Dallas, imo, are Denver, New Orleans and the Clippers.
They valued him over Ayton, because Simmons said (and Rusilo agreed): "I'd rather have Brunson at $25 million than Ayton on a MAX."
I honestly can't believe there are people here who think Brunson got overpaid. When you look at the declining contract and think about how much the cap is going to go up...it's going to be a bargain, imo.
How could you leave out the champs and Memphis? That's 5 teams who can leap frog them. If no further moves are forthcoming, they'll be hard pressed to finish 4th again barring any major injuries to said teams. This should be a very interesting season in both conferences.
(07-14-2022, 01:30 PM)HoosierDaddyKid Wrote: [ -> ]How could you leave out the champs and Memphis?
I'm not as high on Memphis as some. I'm not a believer just yet, but YES, it's possible.
The champs...in my head, they're already ahead. I think of the Mavs as chasing them. But I guess you're talking about the way the seeding ended, which makes sense.
The thing I think about from a contract perspective and from a team building perspective is if you want to spend money on that middle tier, near star player or are you better off dumping all of your money into max level guys, have one or two DFS/Bullock contracts and then fill your roster with veterans, reclamation projects and up-and-comers. I'm not sure there is a correct answer and a lot of that assumes you can get that second and third star. Golden State has that middle tier guy in Draymond but they've forgone the Bullock/DFS style contracts.
I also kind of hate the fair market value argument as Bertans, Robinson and Harris all got fair market value and all of their teams regret the decision.
(07-14-2022, 02:04 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]Turner?
Will be very interesting to see. I don't believe Phoenix will let him walk for nothing. Many options:
1. Phoenix let him walk
2. Phoenix matches
3. Phoenix and Indy do a SnT
4. Phoenix and Indy expand the deal with more teams (Durant)
(07-14-2022, 02:07 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Will be very interesting to see. I don't believe Phoenix will let him walk for nothing. Many options:
1. Phoenix let him walk
2. Phoenix matches
3. Phoenix and Indy do a SnT
4. Phoenix and Indy expand the deal with more teams (Durant)
FYI -- all S&T deals are off the table with an offer sheet. The only options are 1 and 2.
(07-14-2022, 02:06 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]This is huge, and I'm not sure I can see all the permutations of how this plays out. My gut reaction is that this isn't what PHX was hoping would happen, even though they didn't want him.
I am not so sure. Indy could do that days ago. I expect it is more of an indication that decision regarding other things has been reached
(07-14-2022, 02:08 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]FYI -- all S&T deals are off the table with an offer sheet. The only options are 1 and 2.
Wow, forgot about that
See the Ayton thread - no sheet signed yet. It's posturing to force an SnT.
(07-14-2022, 02:37 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]See the Ayton thread - no sheet signed yet. It's posturing to force an SnT.
This is my read on it, the more info we get.
Marks is the only one who acted as though the clock was ticking, and it seems like he jumped the gun.
With the Ayton news... I fully expect the Suns to match, effectively taking them out of the Durant sweepstakes... Which leads me to believe the Raptors are the only ones with the ammo to pull it off, should BKN trade him.
Ayton - PHX
Durant - TOR
Mitchell - BKN/NYK
Kyrie - LAL
Simmons - DAL?
If I were a gambling man, I'd say Durant is either a Net or a Warrior to start the season.
(07-14-2022, 02:54 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]With the Ayton news... I fully expect the Suns to match, effectively taking them out of the Durant sweepstakes... Which leads me to believe the Raptors are the only ones with the ammo to pull it off, should BKN trade him.
Ayton - PHX
Durant - TOR
Mitchell - BKN/NYK
Kyrie - LAL
Simmons - DAL?
From what I've gathered, they've already had disccussions and BRKLN wants Scottie Barnes as part of the deal, and Toronto said no dice.
I wouldn’t give them Barnes either. Especially since they’ll want 3 first round picks and Trent too
(07-14-2022, 12:56 PM)Not an evil robot Wrote: [ -> ]Non-expert here, but I don’t think that list makes me feel any kind of way re: Brunson’s contract. Some of those equivalent names could be overpays at $25M AAV. Think someone pointed out that contract puts him around #40 in the league and that’s 20-30 spots high in my opinion. Still disappointed Mavs didn’t re-sign Brunson because although I think he’s not valuable enough to live up to that contract with the Mavs on the court (primarily based on fit), he was that valuable as a signed asset to swap for a few picks at the next opportunity.
In other words, I understand the Mavs thinking that contract is too rich but they should’ve offered the money when the alternative is nothing.
Sure, that contract looks better if/when the cap goes up but relying on a rising tide to lift a particular boat isn’t great financial management (especially since we’ve overpaid in recent history and the tax amplifies those mistakes). But again, something is better than nothing after they voluntarily backed themselves in a corner. In retrospect, they should have aggressively shopped him at the start of the season, extended much earlier, or ensured he was an RFA so they at least get a SNT out of his departure.
I think you have to be a little careful about comparing contracts. Some of those contracts were signed a couple of years ago and contracts signed now are going to be higher due to cap increase. Also some of those contracts may be RFA which depress the price (unless your Ayton). He might be a little overpaid but young top 60-70 players that are a little overpaid are still assets.
(07-14-2022, 03:58 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I think you have to be a little careful about comparing contracts. Some of those contracts were signed a couple of years ago and contracts signed now are going to be higher due to cap increase. Also some of those contracts may be RFA which depress the price (unless your Ayton). He might be a little overpaid but young top 60-70 players that are a little overpaid are still assets.
Yeah, that’s completely fair. Of course it’s also damning for the Mavs that his contract allowed him to avoid RFA - not that you’ve suggested otherwise from what I remember. If you wanted to find the actual value to cost ratio you’d look at the average WAR (or similar counting stat) per $ across the league and then benchmark against it. I think Brunson would come in below it with the Knicks and even a little lower than that on the same contract with the Mavs.
Agreement here too on him being an asset even if he’s 10% overpaid on AAV (% not scientific). In part because of the exact scenario that played out - someone believes with certainty that they’ll make a bigger leap on their team and are willing to pay.