(07-28-2021, 10:00 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]they'd be doubly better off getting Norman Powell (likely $19M to nab him) instead.
If Portland lets Powell walk they can as well as start looking for Lillard trades. They can't afford to lose him if they want to improve. Money can't be a barrier for them
(07-28-2021, 10:30 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I think back in the Kemba days somebody posted some research that short point guards tend to fall off a cliff in their early 30s (which certainly seems to be the case for Kemba).
Yep, that was me.
Lowry HAS indeed gotten through the typical steep decline stage for small guards, BUT he is rapidly approaching the cliff that ALL players hit. Dirk's last GREAT season was age 35. He was never the same after that. ALSO Lowry is
already showing that decline the last two years (what Dirk started at age 36, Lowry has ALREADY begun two years earlier).
If the pattern holds (and you never know, but statistically it should), Lowry is going to become a player of very marginal value in the next season or two. The key is that the decline is there if you look at the stats, it has already begun. The cliff is approaching and it might even be this next season (especially if he gets hurt in any way).
(07-28-2021, 10:27 AM)haveitall Wrote: [ -> ]What is wrong with Brunson as a secondary ballhandler?
It's not just a secondary ball handler that's needed, but a secondary playmaker. Brunson has been great in some ways, but he hasn't proven to be great at creating shots for others. Also, I think the Mavs would like a secondary playmaker who can play defense. I think they're looking for the player that Delon and JRich auditioned to be. But instead of looking at folks who haven't done it on a high level and hoping they grow into the role, they're looking for folks who have already done it.
(07-28-2021, 10:58 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Once again, it's news to me that Lonzo wants to come here. Interest has to go in two directions.
You think the Mavs have asked Ball or made a hard push? Maybe they have. Maybe there is interest. All the talk about Lowry could also just be rumours or his agent trying to drum up interest. Given how scarce real big capspace is, it wouldn´t surprise me. Full guaranteed 90/3 at 35.5 years old is a very ambitious target. I´d rather have Westbrook at 90/2, and as an added bonus, we would get rid of Powell/Richardson just to match salaries.
Am I the only one that would rather money-whip Conley than Lowry? Look how good his advanced stats were last year. I realize he's a bit injury prone, but worth it if we can pry him away from Utah somehow?
![[Image: Capture.png]](https://i.ibb.co/TMCdf4x/Capture.png)
(07-28-2021, 11:13 AM)mavs_bigot Wrote: [ -> ]Am I the only one that would rather money-whip Conley than Lowry?
MUCH prefer Conley to Lowry. Two years younger and seemingly NOT in "the great decline" yet.
(07-28-2021, 10:56 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]CP3 was awesome for Phoenix and now the assumption is that adding one veteran to a young team will immediately add 15-20 wins to every team. If Phoenix had lost in the 1st round to a healthy Lakers team, nobody would even consider giving Lowry that much money. Or if he had not been carried to an NBA championship by Kawhi Leonard, which hinged on a single 3pt shot that double bounced on the rim.
To me that is the single worst reactionary GMing, but it´s a fairly frequent phenomenon. No front office worth a damn makes decision based on arbitary small sample size outcomes/results.
I'm not even arguing the Lowry is THE thing to do. I don't know that. But the Mavs search for a secondary playmaker who can play defense isn't new. It predates Chris Paul's success with the Suns.
(07-28-2021, 10:56 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Ball is 23 years old right now. When Lowry was 23 years old, he averaged 9/5 and his shooting splits over his first four years in the league were roughly 42/25/80. OMG you morons, you want to sign that kid. Are you crazy? He´ll never ever be as good as Devin Harris. Hard pass.
I think you're saying that you like Ball, but the above is a bit confusing. Can we get him? Would he be willing to be secondary to Luka?
(07-28-2021, 10:56 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]If you want a veteran leader so desperately, then you go and overpay Dragic for 1-2 years.
I'd be open to this, but does he start next to Luka and give you the defense and toughness that we're looking for?
(07-28-2021, 11:27 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]I like Conley
Conley's name hasn't come up over the past week or so, presumably because the national media and league GMs assume he's not leaving Utah. Hard to see why he would, aside from the bad city thing, of course. Would greatly prefer him to Lowry.
One thing about Lowry. At this point of his career he is not the point of attack defender some expect him to be. Raptors had VanVleet and Anunoby. Just like CP3 Lowry is not as quick as he used to be and can be somewhat of an liability in iso or pick and roll situations. Overall he still makes an impact with his team/help defense but he is not a lockdown onball defender.
Another thing. With KP and Lowry on the floor the Mavs can forget any scheme that involves a lot of switches on defense. Not really what I would prefer but maybe Kidd/Nico/one of the assistant coaches has a plan.
Isn't one of the main benefits of having Luka that you don't need an undersized PG primary playmaker? Mark Cuban said they're looking for a secondary ball handler with size. Lowry doesn't fit that description. Who does? Lonzo, Dinwiddie, Norman Powell? Reggie Jackson is a freakishly long combo guard, not sure why there hasn't been any news about him at all. Josh Green everyone wants to develop into a guy that can play next to Luka and he's wing sized but plenty agile enough for the fastest guards in the league.
Forgot about Dragic, he's big for a guard too.
Conley missed meaningful playoff games because of a seemingly degenerative hamstring. Yet - he’s MUCH the preference over Lowry for some because Lowry is supposedly the one that is clearly declining and aging. Got it.
Conley is not available people! Utah is going to pay up. They’re in win-now mode and have no other real option. This isn’t an alternative for Dallas.
(07-28-2021, 11:43 AM)Jakeospikez Wrote: [ -> ]Isn't one of the main benefits of having Luka that you don't need an undersized PG primary playmaker? Mark Cuban said they're looking for a secondary ball handler with size. Lowry doesn't fit that description. Who does? Lonzo, Dinwiddie, Norman Powell? Reggie Jackson is a freakishly long combo guard, not sure why there hasn't been any news about him at all. Josh Green everyone wants to develop into a guy that can play next to Luka and he's wing sized but plenty agile enough for the fastest guards in the league.
Forgot about Dragic, he's big for a guard too.
The benefit is more like you can play two playmakers without giving up size.
(07-28-2021, 11:24 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not even arguing the Lowry is THE thing to do. I don't know that. But the Mavs search for a secondary playmaker who can play defense isn't new. It predates Chris Paul's success with the Suns.
I think you're saying that you like Ball, but the above is a bit confusing. Can we get him? Would he be willing to be secondary to Luka?
I'd be open to this, but does he start next to Luka and give you the defense and toughness that we're looking for?
My problem with Lowry and THJ is simply the projected salaries/contracts and that they would have absolutely no re-trade value. Imho this team needs to look at contracts/players that have upside and re-trade value, because we not only need to add significant talent, but talent that can grow and get better alongside Luka. We also have to account for the Unicorn´s injury history, so we have at least some financial flexibility and replacements options that have more upside than Powell/WCS, if he goes down. Therefore if it has to be Lowry, then it´s 54/3 or 50/2, but not 90/3. If he does not like it, then he can play for the Pelicans.
To me a package of Lamb + Bitadze or Ross + Bamba instead of THJ is much more desirable. I doubt that THJ´s league-wide perception was any better than those of Lamb/Ross right now, before he got to play along-side the best basketball player on the planet. So who is to say that Lamb or Ross can´t replace 85-100% of THJ´s production on a cheaper and shorter contract, plus you get a free shot at young and cheap physical specimens, that you desperately need.
That´s how I approach it.
Maintain the current talent level (on paper), but increase the upside within the squad, the cap flexibility with better contracts and add to the bare asset base.
I´d rather be the same team (talent projection-wise) next season with an improved shot at a Zach Lavine type than have a projected 10-15% improvement, but absolutely no way for further additions in the future.
Let´s be clear. Anyone think we can add another major talent with Lowry on 90/3 and THJ on 54/3? That´s four big contracts with negative value (Porzingis, Lowry, THJ, Powell). At that point we are out of ammo and our battle will be to fight of the vultures coming for Brunson and especially DFS.
Updating my "offseason grades" post to eliminate Kawhi, give the grade on Lowry (originally a D) a bump, and add the possibility of trading for Beal.
Signing CP3: A
Acquiring Brogdon: A+ or A, depending on what flexibility we have left afterward
Trading for Bradley Beal: A+
Retaining KP: D (subject to move up if we make good moves around that; subject to tank to an F-, no matter what else we do, if he gets injured)
Signing any RFA to an offer sheet: D. Goes up to a C if the other team doesn't match, tanks to F- if they do.
Signing and trading for Collins without an offer sheet: A-, but subject to whatever else they do
Signing and trading for Ball: A
Signing and trading for Jarrett Allen: A. They would still need to add a playmaker, but this is a fantastic start.
Signing Richaun Holmes: A, if they find a way to add a playmaker; B if not.
Acquiring Turner: A-
Mike Conley: B+
Norman Powell: B
Acquiring Lowry: B-
Acquiring THT (at less than $15M per): B (C for $15-$19M, D at more than $19M/year)
Acquiring Fournier: B-
Acquiring Dinwiddie: C
Acquiring Derozan: D
Inability to achieve any of the above: F
Acquiring Oubre: F-
Extra Credit:
Trading Brunson for Robinson straight up: A full grade level bump
Trading Brunson for Robinson with the Mavs adding a second rounder or two: Half a grade bump
Getting a star back in trade for KP (not happening): Two full grade level bumps.
Getting a young, longterm rotation player back in trade for KP: A grade level bump.
Getting a temporary rotation player back in trade for KP: Neutral
Taking on bad contracts back in trade for KP: A grade level deduction.
Clearing upwards of $7.5M on KP's salary in trade this year: Full grade level bump
Trading KP into space: Bump up a grade level and a half
Dumping Powell's salary without paying to do so: Bump up half a grade level
Acquiring a 2023 pick for future flexibility: Full grade level bump
Acquiring a 2021 lottery pick: Full grade level bump
Acquiring a 2021 non-lottery pick: Half grade level bump
Acquiring a 2021 2nd rounder: E for effort/teacher's pet for a day
Retaining THJ for sixth man money: Half a grade level bump
Retaining THJ at $15-$18M per: A half grade level deduction
Retaining THJ at more than $18M per: A full grade level deduction
Acquiring Portis, Reggie Jackson, Payne, or Tucker: A full grade level bump each for Portis and/or Jackson, a half grade bump each for Payne and/or Tucker
Acquiring Lauri: a half grade level bump if it's for more than MLE money, a full grade level bump if less
Operating over the cap and getting a top-five MLE player: A full grade level bump
Jake Fischer on Marc Stein’s Greenroom says the Mavs’ rumored offer for Lowry or Conley is 3 years $90M.