MavsBoard

(08-10-2021, 11:04 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]2020-2021...
CHI D w/ LM: 109.9
CHI D w/o LM: 110.9
Net: +1.0

2019-2020...
CHI D w/ LM: 107.3
CHI D w/o LM: 108.4
Net: +1.1


2018-2019...
CHI D w/ LM: 112.3
CHI D w/o LM: 111.6
Net: -0.7


2017-2018...
CHI D w/ LM: 110.5
CHI D w/o LM: 108.4
Net: -2.1



So his rookie season was his worst, where CHI's D was significantly better when he sat. CHI was not much better when he sat his second year. And the last two years the CHI D has actually been better when LM played. And these are solid defensive teams the last two years with CHI ranking 9th and 12th in the league defensively. 

And when you look at RAPTOR-D and LEBRON-D advanced stats you see LM as a middle of the pack NBA defender as well.

Hence, I think I can say he is "solid" as an NBA team defender.

I'm not sure why you put so much focus on on/off by itself?  There is so much context missing with that.  Its almost as much about his backup (in this case starter since he was coming off the bench).  It also does not take into account that we was playing a lot of minutes against bench units.

If I look at something like DRPM (that takes context of opponents and teammates on court) and order it by the power forward position, he comes in:

2021: 44th
2020: 64th
2019: 80th

That is not good.

(08-10-2021, 11:30 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Nice cherry picking.  Lets plan our long term asset moves on a 4 game sample.  And ignore they shot over 50% from 3 the first three games, or that they were playing freaking Boban in a zone in the last three games daring the best three point shooting team in the league to fire.  Take a look at the offensive and defensive rating during that series and tell me it was the offense that was the problem.

We just replaced JRich with Bullock in the starting lineup.  That should make a big difference in the shooting department

And if you are expecting Kidd to turn this group of players into an elite defense, prepare to be very disappointed.

So if Boban is a huge liability on defense why did they play him in the last three games, since everything is fine and dandy on offense.

(08-10-2021, 10:49 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Outside of Luka/DFS, the rest of the team shot 15/74 from three (20%) over the last four play-off games against the Clippers. You better be hell a great at defense, if you want to win a seven game series with the 3rd to 10th best player shooting 20% from three. We need more offensive talent, too.

As we have seen with the Knicks a headcoach can make a hell of a difference for the team defense, but as the Knicks also learned in the play-offs, offensive talent matters most, and they did not have enough of it, so they added Walker/Fournier.

Also, New York did not show that offense is more important than defense.  Thibs has a history of getting his teams to play at a playoff level intensity during the regular season (and running his team into the ground in the process).  They overachieve in the regular season, but then in the playoffs they don't have another gear to go to.

I think you and I have a fundamental difference in roster construction.  While I agree that offensive talent is rarer than defensive, and it is the true premium, defense cannot be ignored.  You cannot put a bunch of offense only pieces together, add a defensive player or two and a coach can just turn it into a good defense.  Defense does matter, and its why 2 way players are such a premium.

(08-10-2021, 11:42 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]DRPM

I used to like DRPM much better, but they have changed formulas and I don't know whether to trust it.

Like I said I looked at LEBRON-D and RAPTOR-D both and he is a middle of the pack defender in those. Both of those take into account lineups etc.

To On/Off:

I still think it is the best number because it is an unadulterated number (when you mess with the numbers by trying to take context into account you can actually turn the numbers into complete nonsense...that is the danger). Yes, you need to interpret On/Off and look at further context to get understanding, especially in smaller sample sizes. But in a large enough sample it will reveal some pretty simple truths. In LM's four years in the league it tells us that he has not been a large negative factor overall in the Bulls TEAM defense. According to On/Off he is not the defensive liability that many claim.

(08-10-2021, 12:05 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I used to like DRPM much better, but they have changed formulas and I don't know whether to trust it.

Like I said I looked at LEBRON-D and RAPTOR-D both and he is a middle of the pack defender in those. Both of those take into account lineups etc.

To On/Off:

I still think it is the best number because it is an unadulterated number (when you mess with the numbers by trying to take context into account you can actually turn the numbers into complete nonsense...that is the danger). Yes, you need to interpret On/Off and look at further context to get understanding, especially in smaller sample sizes. But in a large enough sample it will reveal some pretty simple truths. In LM's four years in the league it tells us that he has not been a large negative factor overall in the Bulls TEAM defense. According to On/Off he is not the defensive liability that many claim.

In most of the advanced stats, big men tend to score higher on defense than smaller defenders.  I am curious in Lebron and Raptor where he ranks with other power forwards.

(08-10-2021, 12:01 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]So if Boban is a huge liability on defense why did they play him in the last three games, since everything is fine and dandy on offense.

I don't have a dog in y'alls fight, but Boban was played as an attempt to stop the LAC layup/dunk line. The Mavs made a choice to play two bigs, play zone and dare the Clips to make 3s. It worked in the sense that the layup line slowed down, but it didn't work in the sense that they still lost.

(08-10-2021, 12:05 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I still think it is the best number because it is an unadulterated number (when you mess with the numbers by trying to take context into account you can actually turn the numbers into complete nonsense...that is the danger). Yes, you need to interpret On/Off and look at further context to get understanding, especially in smaller sample sizes. But in a large enough sample it will reveal some pretty simple truths. In LM's four years in the league it tells us that he has not been a large negative factor overall in the Bulls TEAM defense. According to On/Off he is not the defensive liability that many claim.

Talk to me like I'm three, very slowly, using only small words and explain to me why it's not just an evaluation of the player relative to his teammates. That's what I've never understood. I think there's a time and place for that kind of examination (see Richardson on the Mavs last year) but I can't quite see how that data helps form a predictive analysis of how another team's player might function on the Mavericks.

(08-10-2021, 12:09 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]I don't have a dog in y'alls fight, but Boban was played as an attempt to stop the LAC layup/dunk line. The Mavs made a choice to play two bigs, play zone and dare the Clips to make 3s. It worked in the sense that the layup line slowed down, but it didn't work in the sense that they still lost.

Counterpoint: is it possible that Boban was played because Carlisle knew the series was over, gave up, went on a week long meth binge and decided to get as "weird with it" as possible?

(08-10-2021, 12:01 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]So if Boban is a huge liability on defense why did they play him in the last three games, since everything is fine and dandy on offense.

My understanding was that it was a desperate attempt to stop the turn style defense at the rim.  Boban is a terrible defender in space, but in a Zone with KP taking up some of the space, he was probably our best option.

...I'm still on the meth binge theory. It makes more sense than anything else I've seen suggested. 

Occam's Razor!

(08-10-2021, 12:09 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I am curious in Lebron and Raptor where he ranks with other power forwards.

LEBRON-D: Right in the middle two of the four years and the other two years he was like two thirds down the list. 

RAPTOR-D: Top third one year, middle of the pack two years, bottom third one year.

(08-10-2021, 12:02 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Also, New York did not show that offense is more important than defense.  Thibs has a history of getting his teams to play at a playoff level intensity during the regular season (and running his team into the ground in the process).  They overachieve in the regular season, but then in the playoffs they don't have another gear to go to.

I think you and I have a fundamental difference in roster construction.  While I agree that offensive talent is rarer than defensive, and it is the true premium, defense cannot be ignored.  You cannot put a bunch of offense only pieces together, add a defensive player or two and a coach can just turn it into a good defense.  Defense does matter, and its why 2 way players are such a premium.

Well can you get such a two player right now?

This team needs an infusion of overall talent. We are basically a mirror image of our SummerLeague team (slightly exaggerated), except that SummerLeague team has no Luka Doncic.

Since we are/have been absolutely trash at drafting, we simply have to add TALENT whenever we can. Be a lot easier, if we had drafted Bey, Maxey or Pokusevski instead of Green. Or Bane, Quickley or Maledon instead of Terry, but we have not.

Markkanen fills a lot of needs, especially as a Porzingis trade/injury insurance. Who is going to provide that scoring punch, if Porzingis goes down? Powell, WCS, Kleber, Boban, Brown?

I know we need to be better at defense, but defense is played almost situationally in the NBA today, because the rules simply make even 24 minutes of good defense impossible. What´s played 48 minutes is offense.

Let me ask this JJ Reddick question this way;

Is there any conceivable way that JJ Reddick can be used in deal as SnT to Chicago and Chi not eat his salary and him still end up in Brooklyn?

(08-10-2021, 12:21 PM)DallasBasketball Wrote: [ -> ]Let me ask this JJ Reddick question this way;

Is there any conceivable way that JJ Reddick can be used in deal as SnT to Chicago and Chi not eat his salary and him still end up in Brooklyn?

Even if this were possible, and I'm not sure that it is, there would have to be some incentive for either Reddick, his true target team or both to justify them participating in this. None of them would do it just to help Dallas, I don't think. 

I'm slightly hopeful that Dallas can use Reddick in some small way by dealing with his eventual destination directly, but not if he's to be a minimum player. What gives me hope is that I believe that if he was itching to accept a minimum deal we probably would've seen that happen already. I think it's at least somewhat likely that IF a team is willing to pay MORE than the minimum, it might be a team who can't sign him outright. Even so, though, we'd probably be talking about a small, small sweetener, possibly too small to make adding salary attractive for Dallas.

And tbh, I'd take him back here in a heartbeat. I LIKE shooting.

(08-10-2021, 12:12 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Counterpoint: is it possible that Boban was played because Carlisle knew the series was over, gave up, went on a week long meth binge and decided to get as "weird with it" as possible?

Ha! I don't think so, but you should ask him! Did you call him on Father's day this year? 


Oh wait. Since you're my basketball daddy, then Rick is my basketball grandaddy!

(08-10-2021, 12:10 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Talk to me like I'm three, very slowly, using only small words and explain to me why it's not just an evaluation of the player relative to his teammates. That's what I've never understood. I think there's a time and place for that kind of examination (see Richardson on the Mavs last year) but I can't quite see how that data helps form a predictive analysis of how another team's player might function on the Mavericks.

IMO it is primarily an evaluation of how a player functions on a TEAM (a specific team for sure, but I think it can be telling and potentially but not always predictive about how he functions generally as a teammate in regard to effecting O and D) and to me that is the most valuable thing you can analyze. Yes, there are comparison aspects between teammates you can make, but I think even that is secondary. Team chemistry is so important for a high functioning O and especially D, and I think On/Off gives the best window into how players help or hinder that function.

The Bulls team D was about the same (looking at a four year sample) whether LM played or whether he sat. We can surmise that it is probably most likely that would be the case in DAL. But of course, you cannot be sure. He could come to DAL and have a particularly bad fit with the players here and make things much worse on D. Or maybe its the opposite and he has a slight positive effect on the trajectory of the team D when he plays. 

I think with D in the NBA it is all about team cohesiveness. Individual defensive prowess CAN be helpful, but if you aren't good about playing within a scheme, then you will ultimately hurt the team D. Dirk is a great example. He wasn't a great individual defender (except the swipe down) but he often had a POSITIVE team impact on D because he played within the scheme and did what he was supposed to do (which goes a long way).

(08-10-2021, 12:15 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Occam's Razor!

The Occam's Razor punctuator! One of the awesome things about the internet.

(08-10-2021, 12:21 PM)DallasBasketball Wrote: [ -> ]Let me ask this JJ Reddick question this way;

Is there any conceivable way that JJ Reddick can be used in deal as SnT to Chicago and Chi not eat his salary and him still end up in Brooklyn?

Give Sam Presti five first round picks to S&T for Redick on a $6-10M deal, immediately waive him and allow him to sign for the minimum with the Nets.

I think Redick is still out there, because nobody wants to pay him more than the minimum, and he probably wants more for his podcasting rights. Or he just doesn´t like his kids as much as he said.

(08-10-2021, 12:27 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]The Bulls team D was about the same (looking at a four year sample) whether LM played or whether he sat.

And when using this as predictive help, do you:

A) give a player who comes from a BETTER team D than Dallas's a potential boost, due to him being whatever he was in a better overall scheme (held to a higher standard) or

B) dock that same player (here, potentially), speculating that those around him won't be able to support him as effectively? 

There are other ways to extrapolate the above question, but hopefully it's clear.

(08-10-2021, 12:20 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Well can you get such a two player right now?

This team needs an infusion of overall talent. We are basically a mirror image of our SummerLeague team (slightly exaggerated), except that SummerLeague team has no Luka Doncic.

Since we are/have been absolutely trash at drafting, we simply have to add TALENT whenever we can. Be a lot easier, if we had drafted Bey, Maxey or Pokusevski instead of Green. Or Bane, Quickley or Maledon instead of Terry, but we have not.

Markkanen fills a lot of needs, especially as a Porzingis trade/injury insurance. Who is going to provide that scoring punch, if Porzingis goes down? Powell, WCS, Kleber, Boban, Brown?

I know we need to be better at defense, but defense is played almost situationally in the NBA today, because the rules simply make even 24 minutes of good defense impossible. What´s played 48 minutes is offense.

I mean if you are going to use the summer league team as an analogy, what that team desperately needed more than anything is an actual point guard (same for this team without Luka).

Lauri would definitely provide some value when KP is out.  He also would provide some value on the bench.  There is no universe where you could start KP/Lauri/Luka/THJ and be an even average defense.  He is a bench piece.  That is not worth a first round pick or 15 mil a year.  If we could send a second and/or Moses and max out our TPE then I am all in.