(07-28-2021, 09:45 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think Lowry is far better player than Ball in the next 3 year window. Ball was never on a winning team, is young and is still sort of growing up. Part of this is also, as you said, likely the desire to be important, to have ball in hands and so on. Sure he can develop, but I rather take someone who already got this. Plus I really think Mavs need a vet with respect. Someone, who will be able to hold both Luka and KP accountable (I don't think Barea or similar "washed up" vet solves that). Sure it is very likely Ball will be better than Lowry in 5 years, perhaps sooner. But I think Mavs are looking at next 1-3 years.
As for 2 or 3 year deal some are so worried. First of all, the first priority is to actually get someone. And if Mavs think Lowry is the man, 2 or 3 year deal is not a question at all. If he wants three years and that is his bottom line, so be it. Further, Mavs next window, unless a superstar trade falls out of the blue, is next 3 years. Till 2024, when KP contract expires. So if nothing big comes along until then, Mavs will have all their draft assets available for trade after 2023 draft with KP, Lowry and THJ expiring deals, 2020 rookies and perhaps 22 rookie, Brunson and DFS. If even then nothing big comes along, Mavs have almost 2 max slots in 2024. The only risk is if Lowry completely falls off the cliff and becomes a Horford level overpaid. But I am hopeful he stays more CP3 level useful.
I think the odds are more likely that Ball will be better sometime in the next two years. Lowry has already shown decline and the history of old small point guards is not good. CP3 is more the exception than the rule. If Ball does not want to come here, then he doesn't want to come here, but he would definitely be my choice over Lowry, especially because it sounds like he will cost less.
(07-28-2021, 09:45 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Once again, if not and plus if Kamm gets his wish, you have 2019 3.0 on your hands, which I think any Mavs fan would have to be certifiable to want.
Yep, I get that for sure. There are just a lot of red flags going off in my head right now about Lowry and THJ being our offseason. Hopefully Nico gets more cap creative guys under him so he can just make a vision and those guys show him the way!!!
(07-28-2021, 09:57 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Yep, I get that for sure. There are just a lot of red flags going off in my head right now about Lowry and THJ being our offseason. Hopefully Nico gets more cap creative guys under him so he can just make a vision and those guys show him the way!!!
Definitely need some frontcourt upgrades. I'd say wings would be nice, but it looks to me like the only difference-making wings available this offseason are in the top 20 of the draft.
Furthermore, I'd say that if the Mavs are thinking in terms of paying THJ in the stupid range ($17M+), they'd be doubly better off getting Norman Powell (likely $19M to nab him) instead.
(07-28-2021, 09:52 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I think the odds are more likely that Ball will be better sometime in the next two years. Lowry has already shown decline and the history of old small point guards is not good. CP3 is more the exception than the rule. If Ball does not want to come here, then he doesn't want to come here, but he would definitely be my choice over Lowry, especially because it sounds like he will cost less.
I agree with this, esp if he's allowed to be THE PG on the team. If he came here to be mostly off ball and then get his secondary team when Luka sits, the likelihood becomes less. However, Lowry doing that same thing might decline his value too. On the flip side, it could extend his aging career, who knows?
@"mvossman", the history of old, small point guards isn't good?
I immediately thought of a bunch of old point guards that aged well.
(07-28-2021, 10:12 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Like our current HC.
He was far from small though.
(07-28-2021, 10:12 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Like our current HC.
I thought of him but he's probably bigger than @"mvossman" had in mind
I thought Hardaway was really good last year. I disagree with him being streaky compared to other players. I think it is because we watch him so close. Those type of players have hot and cold streaks. That happens. He still wound up with a good percentage and he is a guy who takes a lot of tough shots.
I prefer Derozan over Hardaway, but that may not be in the cards. Hardaway as your 3/4th scoring option where there is more ball movement and penetration is a really nice fit.
For me, Salary will be important. I would not be excited if he is at 20 million. 17 millionish seems fair, but we will see. You typically got to overpay in FA.
Lowry/Hardaway offseason definitely has risks and it is totally fair if you are against those moves, but it also has some upside. IF Lowry can maintain his play and IF KP can play better, this team would not be far off to compete right away (I know two big IFS- capitalized). I will need to see what the rest of the roster looks like though.
(07-28-2021, 10:00 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Definitely need some frontcourt upgrades. I'd say wings would be nice, but it looks to me like the only difference-making wings available this offseason are in the top 20 of the draft.
Furthermore, I'd say that if the Mavs are thinking in terms of paying THJ in the stupid range ($17M+), they'd be doubly better off getting Norman Powell (likely $19M to nab him) instead.
They´d be better off sending THJ to an over the cap contender for an expiring veteran and late 1st round pick/prospect. We need to accumulate talent/assets/cap flexibility, while maintaining our current level (on paper). I think that would be a much smarter way forward than committing all our assets now to improve maybe 10-15% (on paper) by adding Lowry to the current squad.
We are not that close. The NBA is not a league of gradual improvements. It´s a big splash league, but those splashes are drafted/traded high lottery picks or super collusions. You collect asset, that you cash in at the right moment.
Look if you want Lowry so badly. Fine. Then you can´t stop there. You need to shove it all in the middle and get DeRozan, too. If you want to commit to the roster for the next three years, then really go all-in and give up ALL future 1st round picks. If this goes wrong due to Porzingis health or Lowry´s age, then Luka is gone anyway, so you might as well go all-in, not 50%.
Can someone please explain why it is good idea to give 90 million to a 35 year old 6'0" point guard? He plays the same position as Luka and is 13 years older. What is wrong with Brunson as a secondary ballhandler? Is this how you build a contender? The old generation of stars like Chris Paul, Lebron, Kawhi are all on a decline. Why not give Luka a big that he can run a pick and roll with. Just because we have Porzingis doesn't mean he can be the only big on the team. Kleiber, Powell, Marjanovic are all nice bench players, none of who are starters on a contender.
(07-28-2021, 10:11 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]@"mvossman", the history of old, small point guards isn't good?
I immediately thought of a bunch of old point guards that aged well.
I think back in the Kemba days somebody posted some research that short point guards tend to fall off a cliff in their early 30s (which certainly seems to be the case for Kemba). It might be more about their skillset/body type. The guys that relied on quickness had a lot of trouble aging gracefully. The fact that Lowry is more about strength and savvy than quicks and he has already made it past the danger zone maybe bodes well, but the decline has already started. Will it be slow or fast?
(07-28-2021, 10:06 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with this, esp if he's allowed to be THE PG on the team. If he came here to be mostly off ball and then get his secondary team when Luka sits, the likelihood becomes less. However, Lowry doing that same thing might decline his value too. On the flip side, it could extend his aging career, who knows?
Actually I think Ball is more valuable as the secondary playmaker. He is already a very good high volume off ball shooter. He is a great transition PG and a great secondary facilitator. I think he would be a perfect fit with Luka, taking the ball up the floor in transition, and then playing off ball when Luka does his thing in the half court. Then, if Luka gets doubled he is perfectly suited to take advantage of the temporary 4 on 3 situation. Part of the reason the Pels are willing to let him go is that he is not a pure point guard.
The problem I think is that Lonzo WANTS to be the primary PG even though he's not good at it.
(07-28-2021, 10:40 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Actually I think Ball is more valuable as the secondary playmaker. He is already a very good high volume off ball shooter. He is a great transition PG and a great secondary facilitator. I think he would be a perfect fit with Luka, taking the ball up the floor in transition, and then playing off ball when Luka does his thing in the half court. Then, if Luka gets doubled he is perfectly suited to take advantage of the temporary 4 on 3 situation. Part of the reason the Pels are willing to let him go is that he is not a pure point guard.
Lonzo is a free agent, and he has shown zero interest in us. FAs have to want to come here.
(07-28-2021, 10:27 AM)haveitall Wrote: [ -> ]Can someone please explain why it is good idea to give 90 million to a 35 year old 6'0" point guard? He plays the same position as Luka and is 13 years older. What is wrong with Brunson as a secondary ballhandler? Is this how you build a contender? The old generation of stars like Chris Paul, Lebron, Kawhi are all on a decline. Why not give Luka a big that he can run a pick and roll with. Just because we have Porzingis doesn't mean he can be the only big on the team. Kleiber, Powell, Marjanovic are all nice bench players, none of who are starters on a contender.
CP3 was awesome for Phoenix and now the assumption is that adding one veteran to a young team will immediately add 15-20 wins to every team. If Phoenix had lost in the 1st round to a healthy Lakers team, nobody would even consider giving Lowry that much money. Or if he had not been carried to an NBA championship by Kawhi Leonard, which hinged on a single 3pt shot that double bounced on the rim.
To me that is the single worst reactionary GMing, but it´s a fairly frequent phenomenon. No front office worth a damn makes decision based on arbitary small sample size outcomes/results.
So what if Jamal Murray doesn´t tear his ACL? Then the Nuggets likely come out of the West with a starting five with an average age of around 24 years. Then everybody wants to sign Ball and Collins, because going super young is the way forward?
It´s actually not that unrealistic that the career trajectories of Ball/Lowry already intersect as early as next season. And even at the (unlikely to be required) max Ball would be cheaper than Lowry.
It´s also an absoluetly mind-blowing Mavs fandom phenomenon to ignore the actual development of the (now) veterans they are so desperately craving.
Ball is 23 years old right now. When Lowry was 23 years old, he averaged 9/5 and his shooting splits over his first four years in the league were roughly 42/25/80. OMG you morons, you want to sign that kid. Are you crazy? He´ll never ever be as good as Devin Harris. Hard pass.
Furthermore there is not even a single player that is 30 years old on that Slovenia roster. None of their older guys is even considered a star player in Europe. Cancar plays in the NBA, but he´s 24, too. Luka is the leader of that team. Just like he is the leader of the Mavs. Luka just needs more talent.
If you want a veteran leader so desperately, then you go and overpay Dragic for 1-2 years. Say Ball gets $22-23M and Dragic gets $10-12M, that´s much better value than Lowry at $30M.
(07-28-2021, 10:40 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Actually I think Ball is more valuable as the secondary playmaker. He is already a very good high volume off ball shooter. He is a great transition PG and a great secondary facilitator. I think he would be a perfect fit with Luka, taking the ball up the floor in transition, and then playing off ball when Luka does his thing in the half court. Then, if Luka gets doubled he is perfectly suited to take advantage of the temporary 4 on 3 situation. Part of the reason the Pels are willing to let him go is that he is not a pure point guard.
Sure, but that's putting him in the same position he's in on NO. Where would the
improvement be if he comes here and does the same thing?
Luka is certainly a better player than any he's ever played with, but the play style you're describing is him playing with KP (temporary 4v3) as opposed to Luka.
KP might turn out to be on par with some of the players he's played with, and might be the perfect compliment to him in the temporary 4v3 stuff, that is where improvement might be met, are you that sure of it though?
Transition might be stymied here too with players just coming off an RC led half court style and Kidd being a half court style in his previous stops.
There could be small improvement playing here with Luka, there might even be big improvement. I just think his biggest chance at big improvement is through him figuring out how to be a PG and that very probably won't be here in Dallas.
(07-28-2021, 10:56 AM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]CP3 was awesome for Phoenix and now the assumption is that adding one veteran to a young team will immediately add 15-20 wins to every team. If Phoenix had lost in the 1st round to a healthy Lakers team, nobody would even consider giving Lowry that much money. Or if he had not been carried to an NBA championship by Kawhi Leonard, which hinged on a single 3pt shot that double bounced on the rim.
To me that is the single worst reactionary GMing, but it´s a fairly frequent phenomenon. No front office worth a damn makes decision based on arbitary small sample size outcomes/results.
So what if Jamal Murray doesn´t tear his ACL? Then the Nuggets likely come out of the West with a starting five with an average age of around 24 years. Then everybody wants to sign Ball and Collins, because going super young is the way forward?
It´s actually not that unrealistic that the career trajectories of Ball/Lowry already intersect as early as next season. And even at the (unlikely to be required) max Ball would be cheaper than Lowry.
It´s also an absoluetly mind-blowing Mavs fandom phenomenon to ignore the actual development of the (now) veterans they are so desperately craving.
Ball is 23 years old right now. When Lowry was 23 years old, he averaged 9/5 and his shooting splits over his first four years in the league were roughly 42/25/80. OMG you morons, you want to sign that kid. Are you crazy? He´ll never ever be as good as Devin Harris. Hard pass.
Furthermore there is not even a single player that is 30 years old on that Slovenia roster. None of their older guys is even considered a star player in Europe. Cancar plays in the NBA, but he´s 24, too. Luka is the leader of that team. Just like he is the leader of the Mavs. Luka just needs more talent.
If you want a veteran leader so desperately, then you go and overpay Dragic for 1-2 years. Say Ball gets $22-23M and Dragic gets $10-12M, that´s much better value than Lowry at $30M.
Once again, it's news to me that Lonzo wants to come here. Interest has to go in two directions.
Look, I have no problem with the Mavs going after someone other than Lowry (as long as it's a top ten free agent - we have cap room and a bright future with our franchise guy). It's just that the report is that the Mavs are pursuing Lowry. If it's a smokescreen or they have a clear plan B in the chamber, then no problem. But the optics are that this is their Plan Powder target, and if they lose out on him with an active 2 August pursuit, then they're screwed.
My favorite offseason is still anything that involves the dumping of KP. I like the idea of signing a bunch of value contract guys (e.g. NOT an overpaid THJ), presuming the acquisition of more cap room, and rolling with that.
(07-28-2021, 10:58 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Once again, it's news to me that Lonzo wants to come here. Interest has to go in two directions.
Well...if the Mavs are willing to give Lowry a 25-30m deal Lonzo would probably take that money as well. Just depends on Nico´s and Mark´s willingness to outbid the Bulls or Knicks.