(11-11-2021, 12:10 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]This is such a good point. I am always a little bemused, for example, when I hear demands to "bench Powell." That has already happened, as a practical matter. Yes, he's on the court for the first few possessions, but he plays backup minutes, and may or may not be part of the closing lineup. Maybe shuffling the deck for the first five minutes of the games would help a little, maybe not. But, considering the alternative options available, I wouldn't bank on it being particularly transformative.
Agree with both you guys. And too add to this a bit, we've actually lead after the first quarter several times recently.
(11-11-2021, 12:10 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Or is it just one more piece of hype that we're falling for?
What would the "hype" be, exactly? Something the Mavs have said, like the "we'll see what we have..." quotes?
(11-11-2021, 11:14 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I have little worries Luka will come around at some point.
All true, but why is there so much panic right now, if Luka is playing like a fringe allstar at best. Lillard is underperforming and as a result Blazers are 5-7. Luka isn't playing much better if we are being honest.
Wether he is out of shape, just being tired or just not hungry doesn't really matter. If the team would be 7-4 with one Luka master class after another, and we still wouldn't be competitive against good team i would be worried. Harsh to say, but the team is 7-4 despite Luka not playing well, and not because of Luka's carry jobs so far. Guess the game winner overshadowed Luka's season start a bit.
If we are being honest the current team has no superstar right now, and it shows against good teams. We can evaluate the team again, if our superstar plays like a superstar. Which i am confident, that he is figuring things out. Until then i see no reason to break out in panic or lash out on other things. If Luka plays better, i would bet my ass you have team mates that are also playing better.
Midseason Luka of last season, and they have a good shot to beat the Bulls. Despite shooting like crap, despite Powell, despite the Kleber injury. Not everything is awful so far.
Kleber lead the Mavs starters in +/- for 70 % of the season last year, he is sorely missed. He was the best glue guy (> DFS) last season. The Mavs need him.
(11-11-2021, 12:07 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]it leads me to speculate that Kidd is actually asking Luka to do less for the sake of the team
GREAT post.
But the above doesn't line up for me though. I WAS thinking the same, then someone pointed to Luka's usage numbers. He is shooting a career high of shots and a career high of potential assists and his usage is 35.7% which is right in step with the last two season.
Luka is actually doing more or as much from a boxscore standpoint. Are there non-boxscore things he is doing less of?
(11-11-2021, 01:21 PM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]why is there so much panic right now,
I am not personally to "panic" yet....but at some point it will happen if things don't turn around. This is the longest "slump" of Luka's NBA career I believe (from both a shooting perspective and a lineup success standpoint).
At what point is something no longer a "slump" and now the "new normal"? That is a genuine question. What if we get to 20 games and there are so signs of improvement? 30? 40?
(11-11-2021, 01:24 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]GREAT post.
But the above doesn't line up for me though. I WAS thinking the same, then someone pointed to Luka's usage numbers. He is shooting a career high of shots and a career high of potential assists and his usage is 35.7% which is right in step with the last two season.
Luka is actually doing more or as much from a boxscore standpoint. Are there non-boxscore things he is doing less of?
Good point. That would disagree with what I said. I don't think he's running as much spread pnr, though. So he's having do different things. I'll keep watching and thinking.
(11-11-2021, 01:27 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]This is the longest "slump" of Luka's NBA career
It's only slightly longer than his shooting slump to start last season. And his assist numbers reflect the poor shooting of the rest of the team, I think, rather than a Luka slump.
(11-11-2021, 01:21 PM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]If we are being honest the current team has no superstar right now
Honesty has nothing to do with this in my mind. I honestly think Luka is a superstar. In October he was an MVP candidate and we're now in November. We're jumping the gun by a long shot.
(11-11-2021, 12:31 PM)fifteent Wrote: [ -> ]What would the "hype" be, exactly? Something the Mavs have said, like the "we'll see what we have..." quotes?
Oh, just similar to the hype around the hiring of Nico and Kidd. A lot of fanfare about how great Nico's connections are, and how much players around the league want to play for Kidd, and how they are going to be so aggressive in free agency. Suggesting big positive changes for the roster. I don't necessarily blame them for "hyping" their new acquisitions, just think the end result didn't live up to the created expectations.
The coaching situation may or may not be similar. This situation is being sold as one in which fans need to have patience, since they are working on a new system, and the growing pains are designed to end in a leap in performance. That all may be absolutely true, but it's also what a team with a new coach and a struggling offense
would say, isn't it?
As we impatient fans aren't seeing much week-to-week progress, it is natural to wonder whether this experimentation is really leading anywhere, or is just a lot of scurrying around that may not result in getting much accomplished.
For my part, I suspect that there really is a method in the madness. But also, that hype is what PR departments are hired to do. We have been encouraged to expect that this seemingly chaotic situation is leading to bigger and better things. Maybe the eventual performance will live up to that. We just don't know, yet.
Wasn't meant to be especially pejorative of the Mavs.
(11-11-2021, 01:30 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]It's only slightly longer than his shooting slump to start last season. And his assist numbers reflect the poor shooting of the rest of the team, I think, rather than a Luka slump.
I'm getting older and my memory isn't what it used to be, but wasn't Luka sub-par early in the 2019/20 season as well?
Maybe I'm just a patsy, but...
(11-11-2021, 01:45 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]just think the end result didn't live up to the created expectations
END results? They just got here! I guess by "end result" you mean the result of their first offseason.
(11-11-2021, 01:45 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]and the growing pains are designed to end in a leap in performance. That all may be absolutely true, but it's also what a team with a new coach and a struggling offense would say, isn't it?
Kidd was saying "we'll see what we have around Christmas" and "we can't just rely on the 3 pt shots" in the preseason, not while they were struggling.
(11-11-2021, 01:45 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]As we impatient fans aren't seeing much week-to-week progress
I don't think this is true for all fans. I see progress. I see fans with more basketball smarts than I (at least one of them, anyway) detailing progress.
(11-11-2021, 01:45 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]hype is what PR departments are hired to do
No doubt, but the stuff I listen to is what the poeple involved say, not PR releases. Do you think Kidd and Nico just tell the press things they're told to say?
(11-11-2021, 01:45 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe the eventual performance will live up to that. We just don't know, yet.
Yes, for sure! I'm in no way certain that this will all work.
(11-11-2021, 01:45 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Wasn't meant to be especially pejorative of the Mavs.
I'm not responding to anything based on whether it's positive or negative. I always hate when conversation fails to engage anything real and just devolves into positive vs. negative. My take is that I could see this process leading to either exciting or disappointing results. I have no idea which it will be.
Seems like the meat of this particular back and forth, which (this discussion) is probably pretty far down in the weeds, is whether Nico and Kidd have told us things that reflect what they're actually attempting to do, or that they're simply repeating things fed to them by the PR department and that the things said do not reflect their behind the scenes efforts.
Like I said, maybe I'm a patsy, but I believe they're efforting to do the things that they're telling us that they're doing. And I like some things about what they say they're trying to do.
Whether or not they're successful within a reasonable time span is a different question.
His FT shooting still sucks and sadly, it might always be like this at this point of his career. Going into every season, this is always the easiest part of his game that he could improve on but it hasn't happened. I can live with him being fat/out of shape and all the bad threes he loves to chuck up if only he was an 80% FT shooter or better. But it looks like he is just going to be a LeBron-like FT shooter at best where you never know what you're gonna get
(11-11-2021, 02:13 PM)SwisherPrice Wrote: [ -> ]all the bad threes he loves to chuck up
There's a basketball reason for at least some of those 3's. He takes 3's when his defender sags so that when the defender plays tighter later he can drive past him.
Remember how Luka has played certain defenders (centers and Pat Bev) off the floor with his pull up and step back 3s?
He just isn't hitting at the same percentage yet, but those 3s, many of them anyway, are part of the chess match.
(11-11-2021, 01:37 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]Honesty has nothing to do with this in my mind. I honestly think Luka is a superstar. In October he was an MVP candidate and we're now in November. We're jumping the gun by a long shot.
He totally is, but isn't playing like one so far. That was my point.
We played 11 games, and on paper Luka should look close to the best player on the floor in each game from both sides. Midseason Luka often was the best player on the floor by a wide margin. We haven't seen that even once. Yuck, he wasn't even the best player on the floor from his own team in the majority of the games.
Credit to Brunson, playing like a "mini" star so far, otherwise the Mavs have the same record as the Blazers or even worse.
(11-11-2021, 02:10 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe I'm just a patsy, but...
END results? They just got here! I guess by "end result" you mean the result of their first offseason.
Kidd was saying "we'll see what we have around Christmas" and "we can't just rely on the 3 pt shots" in the preseason, not while they were struggling.
I don't think this is true for all fans. I see progress. I see fans with more basketball smarts than I (at least one of them, anyway) detailing progress.
No doubt, but the stuff I listen to is what the poeple involved say, not PR releases. Do you think Kidd and Nico just tell the press things they're told to say?
Yes, for sure! I'm in no way certain that this will all work.
I'm not responding to anything based on whether it's positive or negative. I always hate when conversation fails to engage anything real and just devolves into positive vs. negative. My take is that I could see this process leading to either exciting or disappointing results. I have no idea which it will be.
Seems like the meat of this particular back and forth, which (this discussion) is probably pretty far down in the weeds, is whether Nico and Kidd have told us things that reflect what they're actually attempting to do, or that they're simply repeating things fed to them by the PR department and that the things said do not reflect their behind the scenes efforts.
Like I said, maybe I'm a patsy, but I believe they're efforting to do the things that they're telling us that they're doing. And I like some things about what they say they're trying to do.
Whether or not they're successful within a reasonable time span is a different question.
Yeah, I don't think we disagree.
When I say "hype," I don't mean "lying." I mean more like "advertising," where you emphasize what you think are your salient points, and talk up the quality of your product. Without going so far as whole-cloth lying, a certain amount of "puffery" is expected.
I think they are/were trying to do what they said they were aiming for. In the process of advertising, they may have created expectations that turned out to exceed their actual ability to deliver. Not a particular knock on them -- this is pretty much the way retail businesses operate, isn't it? More of a reminder that there is an advertising element in all of this, and that, as discriminating fans, we should be aware that, to some extent, we are being told what we want to hear.
I don't think that Kidd and Nico are just parroting the PR department and following their "orders." Kidd is actually surprisingly honest, sometimes. Having said that, I don't think I have ever heard Nico say anything that didn't seem like the kind of standard, non-answer pablum that executives deliver. That's not particularly a criticism. That's just a way of dealing with the press. I don't know if Nico has undergone media training at any point in his career, but executives who do are taught how to deliver non-answers in ways that encourage audiences to think they have said more than they really did.
I still maintain hope and belief that, during this season, the Mavs will turn into something better than they are currently showing. How much better is a question. I don't rule out the possibility that they really have undergone a significant downgrade in coaching, but hope that is not the case.
(11-11-2021, 02:22 PM)sefant Wrote: [ -> ]He totally is, but isn't playing like one so far. That was my point.
We played 11 games, and on paper Luka should look close to the best player on the floor in each game from both sides. Midseason Luka often was the best player on the floor by a wide margin. We haven't seen that even once. Yuck, he wasn't even the best player on the floor from his own team in the majority of the games.
Credit to Brunson, playing like a "mini" star so far, otherwise the Mavs have the same record as the Blazers or even worse.
I wouldn't even put Luka and Brunson in the same league with each other, as far as which is the best player. Even playing badly by his own standards, Luka is not stoppable. On a poor night, he still has 20 points and 10 assists. Without taking anything away from Brunson, JB can be played off the floor when the opponent chooses to focus on him.
(11-11-2021, 12:07 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]If I take all this and apply it to the questions about Luka, it leads me to speculate that Kidd is actually asking Luka to do less for the sake of the team. And it's possible that taking the foot off the gass a little, and intentionally letting others do their thing, is an adjustment for Luka that he has to work through. And that adjustment could account for what we see as Luka being less effective.
I've been thinking this right up until someone posted his usage numbers and shots taken being up from last year. Now I'm confused again.
Edit: Doh! I didn't realize I had that much more reading to do. I see Kamm and you already talked this out...
(11-11-2021, 02:41 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]I wouldn't even put Luka and Brunson in the same league with each other, as far as which is the best player. Even playing badly by his own standards, Luka is not stoppable. On a poor night, he still has 20 points and 10 assists. Without taking anything away from Brunson, JB can be played off the floor when the opponent chooses to focus on him.
Missed shots are just another way of turning the ball over. If you give the ball back to the other team 66% of the time like in the last game because you shoot 33% from the field, you were definitely stopped. Basketball is just a possession by possession game. The team with the highest conversion percentage wins, almost all the time. Luka’s shooting percentages have been bad this year and he shoots a lot, which is why the team performs so poorly when he’s in the game. The question is why. Is it something about Luka or is it the scheme, or maybe, a little of both.
What is different from this season to all the remaining ones? Kidd instead of RC.
I have no proof, but I would bet all my money that Kidd is the reason. Yes there is a Bullock and a Frank, slightly different squad. Thats essentially the very same team, its one of the teams that changed the less in the NBA. It has to be Kidd.
I dont understand exactly what it is, but to me the movements on offense are just so different.
It's a different scheme, and in this different scheme its just so obvious Luka cant play with Powell. The movements and timing is just completely off.
We are 7-4 so its not all that bad. But the offense is not running well.
All that said, we absolutely need to be patient with Kidd. He is trying to install new plays and different flow to the offense. It may be clashing with the way Luka runs his offense right now. But this may change down the road when the system is in place.
(11-12-2021, 09:18 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]What is different from this season to all the remaining ones? Kidd instead of RC.
I would agree accept I still think Luka looks incredibly different physically. I know you don't agree, but Luka's body and his movements look very different to me this year. Once I feel like Luka's body looks back to normal, then I will be more open to thinking the coaching change is the big impact.
(11-12-2021, 08:33 AM)ThisIStheYear Wrote: [ -> ]Missed shots are just another way of turning the ball over. If you give the ball back to the other team 66% of the time like in the last game because you shoot 33% from the field, you were definitely stopped. Basketball is just a possession by possession game. The team with the highest conversion percentage wins, almost all the time. Luka’s shooting percentages have been bad this year and he shoots a lot, which is why the team performs so poorly when he’s in the game. The question is why. Is it something about Luka or is it the scheme, or maybe, a little of both.
Luka has a history of settling for bad shots. He has admitted it. However, I don't think Luka's shot selection is the only or main reason for the team's puzzling performance. I would argue that Luka is the main reason the Mavs even have a chance at a high seed in the West. If you just sent him back to Slovenia and never let him play again for the Mavs, the Mavs would be a substantially worse team.
Missed shots actually aren't the same thing as turnovers. They can operate similarly in the case of long defensive rebounds that allow the rebounding team to run. But that's not the only thing that happens on missed shots. A missed shot can be rebounded by the shooting team, which can then score a second-chance basket. It can result in a foul by either team, followed by free throws and/or a new possession. After a missed shot, the ball can (and usually will) be inbounded by the defending team behind the line, as opposed to a sudden change of possession from wherever the turnover occurred on the court, in the case of a turnover. The shooting team would far rather have a missed shot than a live-ball turnover.
Luka may have been limited, but he wasn't stopped. Twenty points. Ten assists. That's a splendid outing by most players' standards. If the Bulls said they stopped Luka, they would be laughed out of the interview room.
Actually, afaik, games are decided by points scored, not FG%. Just say, for example, that one team's shooting for the game is 50 layups attempted, every one of them made, no and-ones. Looks like they would have 100 points. The other teams shooting for the game is 60 layup attempts, same conditions, but missed one. Looks they would have 118 points. A lower FG%, but still declared the winner of the game. I am really pretty certain this is how it works, but feel free to correct me if I am wrong about that.
As for shooting percentages, they are way down all across the league. Don't think we have enough information yet to declare that they will never normalize.