MavsBoard

(11-08-2021, 11:16 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]But this is ALSO a Luka problem and citing the team's on/off seems to gloss over his culpability. 



I feel like I am taking crazy pills. We should be able to look at Luka honestly and his culpability in regard to the team's performance. 

I am NOT suggesting everything is Luka's problem or that he is bad or that we should trade him (that is all straw-man garbage that refuses to engage with the data in front of us). But to ignore that he is DEAD LAST in on/off +/- at -24.4 (next worst is KP at -16.1) is like potentially ignoring a tumor in my lung and saying I just have a "whole body health issue" and I don't need to do anything about that tumor.

One more time: I do not think Luka is the whole problem by any means and I think he is the most talented and important player on the team (and he is my favorite player on the team on top of it all!). But it is very concerning that the team is performing so incredibly poorly when he plays while performing quite well when he sits. This could change very rapidly over the next series of games (and I hope it does!). In fact he led the team in +/- last game at +10. I pray it is a new trend moving forward. We need Luka at his best (as a team player) for this team to really go places.

Let me start by saying I respect your postings as much as anyone's here. If you are participating, it usually indicates a meaningful discussion.

As noted, my trade comments were meant as sarcasm, but the +/- numbers were meant to show that Luka is not alone with minus values in the top players, outside of Brunson. But to me, this is a multi-variate analysis where only one outcome is given significance. We can all agree that we would like to see Luka improve by these measures, but I think the consensus is that everyone has to improve collectively for the negative values to moderate and turn positive. 

However, this measure is impacted by how others perform offensively (i.e., do they hit the looks Luka provides) which is also sub par so far this season, and defensively, which, while improving, is a work in progress. To cite this measure and say "there's the problem" seems to ignore all the other factors that go into a successful team effort. As I've had to remind myself over the years, correlation is not causation. 

I, too, was encouraged by Luka's performance against BOS. It felt more like what we have come to expect from Luka. Maybe we're just spoiled, but everyone wants to feel the Luka Magic™

(11-08-2021, 12:40 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]For the record:

I do not think there is only one way to interpret the data of Luka's lineups being outscored and the non-Luka lineups succeeding. I think it is a concerning fact and IMO it points to some poor play by Luka (but that is my interpretation of something that is disputable). It may not persist and I sure hope it doesn't. I think if it persists the Mavs record will eventually tank, I don't think Luka lineups can consistently get outscored while the Mavs win games. But I might be wrong.

Kammrath, It appeared to me that you were interpreting Luka's +/- due to as a poor play by Luka, and like a fact statement. I was trying to discuss this, because as ML writes, that stat is quiet noisy, and it is hard to interpret a players contribution to that single number, since 4 other players are also on the court. Even if substituted by others at times. That makes it little less noisy yes, but still too noisy. It depends also on those other players again that come in. Another factor is the scheme. I think there is no substantial evidence in that single stat, that this is Lukas fault. But it may contain it - if analysed further. I think that by combining many different stats, more correct interpretations can often be made, as single stats are in isolation often noisy. Although even in this case with combined statistics, there will always be an unaccounted factor that might bring serious uncertainty to the interpretations.

I was also not trying to state the opposite as a real fact: that Luka is not at fault for this. He very well may be, as he is indeed involved in those lineups. He is indeed a real suspect here. I wrote indeed that Luka may be fault at this. It's important to look at it from both sides and discuss what factors are/may be contributing to this and maybe we could figure more about it. 

I think for every stat to understand it, it's important to dig more in and bring other stats up that may explain it further. For me, it is that we get so many open shots, almost leading the league. If Luka is playing so bad, how can we get that many open shots? I think this also factors in the +/- number. What would Lukas +/- be even if make those open shots even at an average NBA rate? He would then have several more assists, better +/-, the team would have more wins perhaps. Another thing is the scheme where the spacing seems very off. It may suit one type of PG, but not another PG, that plays differently. To me it's clear that the movements on offense are different, but I don't have a stat to highlight this with, it's just by watching that my intuition is that some timing is off.  I could be wrong, just my view. I'm trying to understand that stat you bring up, and all factors that contribute to it. A third thing is that Luka is doubled like crazy. He might be the most doubled player in the NBA, I don't follow other teams much, but I do know that Luka is doubled almost every play. And if the hypothesis proposed here is that is playing so bad, then why do opponents keep doubling him? Is there even slight possibility perhaps that those lineups with Luka do not work because the scheme of the team is not adequate to deal with those situations of doubling Luka? In order to break the double team, the spacing, timing of the other 4 players on the court, must be great - it's a challenging situation, and you need to be prepared for it as a team and not as individual, and everyone must adapt to the doubling strategy of the opponent. When the double team comes, the other 4 need to move to different spots, in order to take advantage of the double team. If this is not done, by all 4, then the double team will work well, with the outcome that we don't score the points when Luka is in the game and his +/- decreasing. You can substitute other players in and play with Luka, same will happen. You can get Luka off to the bench, and Brunson or Frank will come in and lead the offense. Totally new scheme set by the opponents then. No doubling on Frank or Brunson as the risk/reward estimation is not enough to double. Dallas plays then another scheme (standard one), and so does the opponents defense. Different scheme and spacing and maybe more efficient offense that then lead to non-Luka lineups producing better? Could this be the explanation, or just a part of the explanation together with the other parameters above (bad shooting on opens shots)? 

And for my analogy with me playing with MJ, Kobe, Robinson and Shaq. For Luka there are also players he plays most with, that number is not 4 but maybe 6, 7, or 8. What if they all are missing their open shots? What if they are also not adapting to the double teams to Luka well enough, what if this is a team issue of dealing with this? What if they all are moving wrong as the plays are not set in yet properly to deal with double teaming? I'm just trying to picture that this +/- is due to multitide of players on the court playing together. If the team is winning, that number will be positive.

My personal view is that this is the strongest, most fit Luka to date and I followed him for long time. To me this looks like a new offense being installed and there are substantial number of plays in every game where some timing and spacing is just off. The doubling on Luka actually works well. It works so well, that they keep doubling him. The team cant take advantage of that. Well, at least until the Celtics game. We have seen open shots by Bullock and DFS started to go in against Boston. We have seen what that resulted in. We have seen after those open shots were made that Celtics did give some single matchups to Luka, that he did take advantage of. If ine th future Luka starts to get single matchups all the way from the 3 all the way to the basket, and there is nobody else in the paint helping out and doubling, and all other 4 positions spread out and denied open shots, and if then we then would be losing in those lineups - this situation would get me far far more worried. This would more indicate that Luka is at fault than the current situation.

It's like a Chess match, and since this game is so complex, I like to try look at all factors involved. If this problem persists deep into the season, I would be more worried. Because if the scheme doesn't work, it is to some degree also up to Luka as a leader with time to adapt that with Kidd over time and adjust. But we will never know for sure. It's just fun to think about it and discuss.

(11-08-2021, 02:46 PM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]To cite this measure and say "there's the problem" seems to ignore all the other factors that go into a successful team effort. As I've had to remind myself over the years, correlation is not causation. 

I, too, was encouraged by Luka's performance against BOS. It felt more like what we have come to expect from Luka. Maybe we're just spoiled, but everyone wants to feel the Luka Magic™

Thanks for your comments.

1) I was never claiming to look at Luka individually and say "there's the problem." I was looking at Luka's lineups and saying "there's maybe the biggest problem for the Mavs right now." There is a big difference between the two. I am not laying everything at Luka's feet, but because as the superstar he carries the biggest load, he also bears a lot of the responsibility for better or worse. As I have summarized elsewhere I think the issues are a combination of a) Luka being out of shape, b) Luka shooting poorly, c) Luka being lazy as a team defender, and d) Luka's teammates missing tons of wide open looks. 

2) Yes, my earliest comments on this subject really had to do with my own grieving and mourning of the fact that Luka hasn't lived up to my "he will end his career in the MJ/Lebron conversation" expectations. Those were my expectations and probably unfair to Luka.

(11-08-2021, 03:23 PM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]Kammrath, It appeared to me that you were interpreting the +/- due to mainly poor play by Luka, and like a fact statement. I was trying to discuss this, because as ML writes, that stat is quiet noisy, and it is hard to interpret a players contribution for that single number, since 4 other players are on the court. Even if substituted by others at times. That makes it little less noisy yes, but still too noisy. It depends also on those other players again. Another factor is the scheme. I think there is no substantial evidence in that single stat, that this is Lukas fault. But it may contain it if analysed further. I think by combining many different stats, more correct interpretations can be made, as single stats are often noisy. Although even in this case with combined statistics, there will always be an unaccounted factor that might bring serious uncertainty to the interpretations.

I was also not trying to state the opposite as a real fact: that Luka is not at fault for this. He very well may be, as he is indeed involved in those lineups. He is a real suspect here. I wrote indeed that Luka may be fault at this. It's important to look at it from both sides and discuss what factors are/may be contributing to this and maybe we could figure more about it. 

I think for every stat to understand it, it's important to dig more in and bring other stats up that may explain it further. For me, it is that we get so many open shots, almost leading the league. If Luka is playing so bad, how can we get that many open shots? I think this also factors in the +/- number. What would Lukas +/- even if make those open shots even at an average NBA rate? He would have several more assists, better +/-, the team would have more wins perhaps. Another thing is the scheme where the spacing seems very off. It may suit some other PG, but not another PG, that plays differently. To me it's clear that the movements on offense are different, but I don't have a stat to highlight this with, it's just by watching that my intuition is that some timing is off.  I could be wrong, just my view. I'm trying to understand that stat you bring up, and all factors that contribute to it. A third thing is that Luka is doubled like crazy. He might be the most doubled player in the NBA, I don't follow other teams much, but I do know that Luka is doubled almost every play. And if the hypothesis proposed here is that is playing so bad, then why do opponents keep doubling him? Is there even slight possibility perhaps that those lineups with Luka do not work because the scheme of the team is not adequate to deal with those situations of doubling Luka? In order to break the double team, the spacing, timing of the other 4 players on the court, must be great, it's a challenging situation, and you need to be prepared for it, and they must adapt to the doubling strategy of the opponent. When the double team comes, the other 4 need to move to different spots, in order to take advantage of the double team. If this is not done, by all 4, then the double team will work well, with the outcome that we don't score the points when Luka is in the game and his +/- decreasing. You can substitute other players in and play with Luka, same will happen,. You can get Luka off to bench, Brunson or Frank will come in. Totally new scheme set by the opponents. No doubling on Frank or Brunson as the risk/reward estimation is not enough to double. Dallas plays then another scheme (standard one), and so do opponents defense . Different scheme and spacing and maybe more efficient offense that then lead to non-Luka lineups producing better? Could this be the explanation, or just a part of the explanation together with the other parameters above (bad shooting on opens shots)? 

And for my analogy with med playing with MJ, Kobe, Robinson and Shaq. For Luka there are also players he plays the most with, that number is not 4 but maybe 6, 7, or 8. What if they all are missing their open shots? What if they are also not adapting to the double teams to Luka well enough? What if they all are moving wrong as the plays are not set in yet properly to deal with double teaming? I'm just trying to picture that this +/- is due to multitide of players on the court playing together. If the team is winning, that number will be positive.

My personal view is that this is the strongest, most fit Luka to date and I followed him for long time. To me this looks like a new offense being installed and there are substantial number of plays in every game where some timing and spacing is just off. The doubling on Luka actually works. It works so well, that they keep doubling him. The team cant take advantage of that. Well, at least until the Celtics game. We have seen open shots by Bullock and DFS started to go in against Boston. We have seen what that resulted in. We have seen after those open shots were made that Celtics did give some single matchups to Luka, that he did take advantage of. If in future Luka starts to get single matchups all the way the 3 to the basket, and all other 4 positions denied open shots, and if we then would be losing in those lineups - this situation would get me far far more worried. This would more indicate that Luka is at fault.

It's like a Chess match, and since this game is so complex, I like to try look at all factors involved. If this problem persists deep into the season, I would be more worried. Because if the scheme doesn't work, it is to some degree also up to Luka as a leader with time to adapt that with Kidd over time and adjust. But we will never know for sure. It's just fun to think about it and discuss.

This is a good post and I agree with a lot of it.

A few thoughts:

1) I have repeatedly stated that Luka's teammates missing wide open shots is a HUGE talking point. I have pointed this out a LOT this season. This is not Luka's fault at all. In fact I would go so far as to say that the only reason Luka's on/off offensive rating is -1.0 and not something like +8.0 or more is because his teammates are missing open threes at an absurd rate. His teammates need to shoot better and he needs better offensive teammates.

2) My issue with Luka's on/off rating is by far on the defensive end. He is a hard-to-conceptualize -23.3 on/off defensively (next closest is THJ at -16.9). When Luka has played the Mavs team defense has given up 113.1 pts, which would be 29th in the league, only better than CHA at 113.4. When Luka has sat the Mavs team defense has given up 89.9 pts, which would be 1st in the league by 7.1 pts over GSW (who is at 97.0). In other words the team defense for the Mavs when Luka has sat has been incredibly elite and when he has played the team defense has been functionally the worst in the NBA. Note I keep saying team defense. I am not saying this is 100% on Luka, but this is incredibly concerning AND my own eyes tell me that on-the-ball Luka has been good this year, but off-the-ball he has been a horrible defender (lazy getting back, distracted on rotations, and moving slowly and without the energy he needs). 

3) Most of all you and I just do not see eye to eye on Luka's body and conditioning. I think he is in the second worst shape of his life (next only to the beginning of last season). I think he is moving as poor as he has in his career. I think he is carrying as much fat as he ever has. I just don't understand how you think he is in good shape. But alas, that is a subjective thing largely so we will just have to disagree.

(11-08-2021, 03:37 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]3) Most of all you and I just do not see eye to eye on Luka's body and conditioning. I think he is in the second worst shape of his life (next only to the beginning of last season). I think he is moving as poor as he has in his career. I think he is carrying as much fat as he ever has. I just don't understand how you think he is in good shape. But alas, that is a subjective thing largely so we will just have to disagree.

It's good to discuss this, Lukas physical state. There are no stats we can involve here unfortuntely. But just my view, he looks to me bigger and stronger, not more fat. He never grasps for air, like he always alwayss always alway did in beginning of seasons. We saw him not being able to physically run back to defense many times in the past. As seasons progressed earlier, he came in better conditioning and this grasping for air stopped or decreased. He doesnt do that any more this season. To me this is quiet a strong indication that his conditioning is better this season. He also looks bigger and stronger, he has put more weight on.

But there are more aspects to physical shape than conditioning. This bigger, stronger, more fit Luka, might be in fact slower in acceleration on his path to the paint. This is something that got me worried at times, but so far, the only times he did not get past the defenders, is when the paint was clogged by another defender doubling Luka and he slowed down. In true single matchups he does convert those this season as good as last season. To me it indicates that he didn't lost a step.

It might be correlated that when our other players in Luka's lineups started making open shots, even at average rate, as in Celtics game, that he himself also scored more points.

But I don't know, its great to discuss the different opinions. I may be wrong.

Interpretation of statistics always goes hand to hand with a probability that can even be calculated. I’m too old, too slow, and too lazy to do that nnow. However, I would say that the probability of 54 wins and +/- in the red is really very, very small. Lots of variables. And I would also say that the + - stat of an individual player on the team during a BB game against the opposing team is data with a low probability to explain real source or otherwise, the stat allows n data explanations due to too many variables. N explanations WHY! Still Loudnoise.

I learned not put my hand in the fire for any advanced statistics.
 
And for God's sake don't all canoooon fight about some statistics guys, you're too valuable for this board. You (we) are all right about +- stats, but with what probability, that is different story.

I am probably exception on this board, I am not concerned about Luka neither for the mavs. YET!
Now coach, new system, they have to learn how to become more balanced team and they will have to fight thru mistakes. And Luka has to slowly end his regeneration process after his extra long season and get into nba rhythm. I have no doubts he will.

I give them time till CMs, then picture should be much more clear.

Another data point:

Luka was 2nd worst on the team against NOP with -2 on-court, his off-court was +18.

Reminder of how good Mark Aguirre was.

(11-08-2021, 10:55 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Another data point:

Luka was 2nd worst on the team against NOP with -2 on-court, his off-court was +18.

I think Luka was a fantastic leader of the team once again tonight. No wonders we are 7-3. Just a great game and effort by everyone.

(11-09-2021, 04:02 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]I think Luka was a fantastic leader of the team once again tonight. No wonders we are 7-3. Just a great game and effort by everyone.

Agreed. Take out the awful first quarter where he missed quite a few easy ones and overall just looked disengaged Luka put up: 23/4/4 with only 1 turnover and on 8/15 shooting. He was also +4 in the 2nd, +3 in the 3rd, -2 in the 4th with an overall +5 from the first quarter on.

Dude was fine tonight. Just that first quarter left a bad taste in everyone's mouth.

(11-09-2021, 05:30 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Dude was fine tonight. Just that first quarter left a bad taste in everyone's mouth.

And when he came back in in the 4th quarter. Started off -12 in the 4th with almost zero effort, especially defensively. The lead was almost surrendered during that time. And mostly thanks to JB that was stemmed. Luka surrendered the ball and sat in the corner during that critical juncture until Luka's final quick 5 pts.

(11-09-2021, 08:43 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]And when he came back in in the 4th quarter. Started off -12 in the 4th with almost zero effort, especially defensively. The lead was almost surrendered during that time. And mostly thanks to JB that was stemmed. Luka surrendered the ball and sat in the corner during that critical juncture until Luka's final quick 5 pts.

I don't think you can ding Doncic for deferring to JB in the 4th. It appears that the Mavs are working hard to diversify,  and Luka buying into that shouldn't be presented as a negative. It could very well be Coach that called JB's number in the 4th and Coach's plan for Luka to let others do their thing for stretches for the good of the team down the road.

(11-09-2021, 08:43 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Luka surrendered the ball and sat in the corner during that critical juncture until Luka's final quick 5 pts.

Sat in the corner? Or deferred to others? We can't deride Luka for conjuring too much of a heliocentric offense and in the same vein chastise him when he defers. 

Fif said it best:

(11-09-2021, 08:57 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think you can ding Doncic for deferring to JB in the 4th. It appears that the Mavs are working hard to diversify,  and Luka buying into that shouldn't be presented as a negative

(11-09-2021, 08:57 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think you can ding Doncic for deferring to JB in the 4th.

I am NOT dinging him at all for that. I am SO glad he did. And I think it is good for the long term. 

But I am highlighting that arguably the best thing Luka did in the 4th was defer. His play is still really below his standards right now.

(11-09-2021, 09:32 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I am NOT dinging him at all for that. I am SO glad he did. And I think it is good for the long term. 

But I am highlighting that arguably the best thing Luka did in the 4th was defer. His play is still really below his standards right now.

I would submit that it's possible that the system changes, and Luka deferring might be something Luka has to work through. Looks like has the willingness to let others do their thing, which is awesome, but it may also take a little work for him to maintain his intensity and level of play while he's deferring. He did almost none of that in RC's offense.

(11-09-2021, 09:35 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]it may also take a little work for him to maintain his intensity and level of play while he's deferring.

Absolutely. I made a comment in another post that the coaching staff is probably being really patient with his subpar play because he is being put outside of his comfort zone.

(11-09-2021, 09:39 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Absolutely. I made a comment in another post that the coaching staff is probably being really patient with his subpar play because he is being put outside of his comfort zone.

Yeah...we're communicating in multiple dimensions. I just gave you "right on" over on that thread. 

Do you think it's possible that the case you've presented in recent days about Luka's current play contains an impatient component? Do you believe that it would be wise for fans to have patience through these changes as well as the coaches?

(11-09-2021, 09:45 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]Do you think it's possible that the case you've presented in recent days about Luka's current play contains an impatient component? Do you believe that it would be wise for fans to have patience through these changes as well as the coaches?

No, my presentation of the data is just that. 

I have not been suggesting ANY changes, have I? I have simply observed what I believe is a reality: Luka's play has not been his best so far and needs to improve for this team to really go places.

Observing reality is not impatient...reacting with big changes based on a small sample size would be. 



One other point: 

I have given Luka three years of patience on getting his diet and conditioning right. So the sample size on Luka's conditioning issues is actually quite big. But I will continue to have more patience on that, but my frustration with him is mounting because I think he is potentially throwing away some of his legacy and ceiling by not being better about taking care of his body.

(11-09-2021, 09:51 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]No, my presentation of the data is just that. 

I have not been suggesting ANY changes, have I? I have simply observed what I believe is a reality: Luka's play has not been his best so far and needs to improve for this team to really go places.

Observing reality is not impatient...reacting with big changes based on a small sample size would be. 



One other point: 

I have given Luka three years of patience on getting his diet and conditioning right. So the sample size on Luka's conditioning issues is actually quite big. But I will continue to have more patience on that, but my frustration with him is mounting because I think he is potentially throwing away some of his legacy and ceiling by not being better about taking care of his body.

You do include some analysis and opinions in there as well (not just data), which you should (!)...that's what we do. Just curious about your thoughts.

Regarding Luka's diet, I completely agree. Seems to me that diet and fitness have a ton to do wth longevity and sustained level of play in the league. Some players that never pick that up, in fact, burn our really quickly. Hope he gets that sorted out. It would be great if he took that particular page form Dirk's playbook.