(11-10-2021, 10:51 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: [ -> ]So...can I ask why everyone is taking the Luka situation so serious without the disclaimer that we could be tanking on purpose and Luka is in on it with the Big Wigs? Or is that not possible/smart with our draft assets or lack there of?
Seems like he's not trying...but on purpose. Either to get a better draft pick, because he doesnt care(I dont believe this to be the case), because he thinks Mavs are a few years away or because he is not professional.
Everyone seems to suggest that he is unprofessional and doesnt care...but I dont know about that. Maybe if I had more clarification on their draft assets and if tanking was reasonable or not. If he is giving a middle finger to the FO for trash roster...you better hope for miracle work from Nico or Luka is gone, imo.
Cuban isn't going to tank. Even if Luka isn't 100%, he's too good to let the team be awful enough for our draft position to matter. Cuban doesn't value the draft. Cuban's front offices have a dismal track record in the draft. I just don't see it.
We are also 7-4 which would be a pretty terrible job of tanking.
I am trying to figure out when my "concern" turns to "panic."
Last year Luka started slow. Through 5 games he was -15.7 (almost last on the team)....but then he turned it around and was +6.1 (2nd on the team) by game 11.
We are now at game 11 and Luka is -31.4 (next worst is DFS at -15.8 who has shared most of his minutes with Luka).
I am just completely blown away that this team is being outscored by a rate of 31.4 when its superstar and most talented player plays. I don't have answers and cannot be certain about causes....but it needs to stop if this team wants continued success.
(11-10-2021, 10:55 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Cuban isn't going to tank. Even if Luka isn't 100%, he's too good to let the team be awful enough for our draft position to matter. Cuban doesn't value the draft. Cuban's front offices have a dismal track record in the draft. I just don't see it.
We are also 7-4 which would be a pretty terrible job of tanking.
Pardon the ignorance...
But...If Mavs acquired a legit 2nd Star and focused on draft capital...could they not turn this around pretty quickly if they picked good in the draft?
I assume the draft route with Luka on the clock is not an option...but Mavs need to incorporate young draft talent on cheap contracts into their game plan at some point.
Is the draft route not an option? Without being too hair-brained...I am suggesting something along the lines of trading little talent we have for a 2nd/2.5 star and the rest for draft assets. Unless what we have makes sense to trade for a good draft asset over a 2/2.5 star.
I assume DFS, Maxi, JB, KP, THJ, Bullock could be variously packaged for 2.5 + draft assets or Nice draft asset/s + average draft assets/player.
(11-10-2021, 11:13 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: [ -> ]Pardon the ignorance...
But...If Mavs acquired a legit 2nd Star and focused on draft capital...could they not turn this around pretty quickly if they picked good in the draft?
I assume the draft route with Luka on the clock is not an option...but Mavs need to incorporate young draft talent on cheap contracts into their game plan at some point.
Is the draft route not an option? Without being too hair-brained...I am suggesting something along the lines of trading little talent we have for a 2nd/2.5 star and the rest for draft assets. Unless what we have makes sense to trade for a good draft asset over a 2/2.5 star.
I assume DFS, Maxi, JB, KP, THJ, Bullock could be variously packaged for 2.5 + draft assets or Nice draft asset/s + average draft assets/player.
No ignorance my friend so please don't take my words that way as no offense was intended.
I don't think Cuban has the patience to build a team that way as evidenced by us betting the farm on KP before they even really knew what they had in Luka.
I don't think your idea is terrible but I don't think that is what the team is going to do either. Further, even if that was the plan do we trust MBT to execute in the draft.
(11-10-2021, 11:17 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]No ignorance my friend so please don't take my words that way as no offense was intended.
I don't think Cuban has the patience to build a team that way as evidenced by us betting the farm on KP before they even really knew what they had in Luka.
I don't think your idea is terrible but I don't think that is what the team is going to do either. Further, even if that was the plan do we trust MBT to execute in the draft.
How long do you give the new MBT to prove that they can show, with savvy, they ability to acquire talent?
Is the draft route not an option while Luka is here? As in...things arent going to change for 4+ years at the least?
If you cant acquire talent prudently, wont focus on draft...is there a 3rd option Im not considering? Do Mavs have a final "Send It" option Im not aware of? Is operating over the cap and just over paying crazy amounts for talent an option not yet employed(if possible)?
(11-10-2021, 11:06 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I am trying to figure out when my "concern" turns to "panic."
Last year Luka started slow. Through 5 games he was -15.7 (almost last on the team)....but then he turned it around and was +6.1 (2nd on the team) by game 11.
We are now at game 11 and Luka is -31.4 (next worst is DFS at -15.8 who has shared most of his minutes with Luka).
I am just completely blown away that this team is being outscored by a rate of 31.4 when its superstar and most talented player plays. I don't have answers and cannot be certain about causes....but it needs to stop if this team wants continued success.
To me looking at the game its obvious Luka and Powell cant play together. That combo is just not working. Thats the reason for some if not alot of the +/-.
If you see Maxi starting or DFS I think it will immediately be another story.
(11-11-2021, 08:42 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]Luka and Powell cant play together. That combo is just not working.
It's weird because they have been so good together in the past. I don't get it.
"swap DFS with Bullock and fix the spacing"
I support this.
"Teams are not defending Powell & DFS at all,and spacing with those 3 and KP is messed up"
This is true. Like I highlighted last night DFS+DP+Luka is -14.3. KP+DFS+Luka is -19.3. DP+KP+Luka is -17.9.
BUT even when Luka has been liberated from DFS and DP and KP, his lineups have gotten outscored.
(11-11-2021, 09:16 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]BUT even when Luka has been liberated from DFS and DP and KP, his lineups have gotten outscored.
I understand the point you keep making. And last night Luka still didn't shoot well. Neither did DFS or RB. So 3 of the top 7 rotation players stunk.
We can agree that Luka doesn't look as fit as he should be, but as others have noted, nobody is respecting DFS/DP/RB so he's getting extra attention on top of the fitness question.
So, what's the solution if everything he does is negative?
Push him to the bench until he looks better?
Put him on the injury report and send him to fat camp?
Make him the center of a Hershel Walker-esque trade and start all over?
I thought Kokoskov was supposed to be the "Luka Whisperer". Is he getting Luka to undermine Kidd and open up the HC spot? Apparently everyone loves conspiracy theories these days.
(11-11-2021, 09:51 AM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]I understand the point you keep making. And last night Luka still didn't shoot well. Neither did DFS or RB. So 3 of the top 7 rotation players stunk.
We can agree that Luka doesn't look as fit as he should be, but as others have noted, nobody is respecting DFS/DP/RB so he's getting extra attention on top of the fitness question.
So, what's the solution if everything he does is negative?
Push him to the bench until he looks better?
Put him on the injury report and send him to fat camp?
Make him the center of a Hershel Walker-esque trade and start all over?
I thought Kokoskov was supposed to be the "Luka Whisperer". Is he getting Luka to undermine Kidd and open up the HC spot? Apparently everyone loves conspiracy theories these days.
LOL.
Aside from some speculation about Luka's diet, I don't think we're seeing any actionable problem being described, or any solutions proposed. Mainly, just a running data stream of stats indicating how terrible Luka's plus minus is in some respect or another. Like any other data source, we can pay as much attention to this one as we think it merits.
We may not see where these reports are leading, but this is the first season that we have been treated to breathless, MBM reports of Luka's +/-. So that is a new feature of the board that is pretty cool! Many thanks to Kamm for the effort!
(11-11-2021, 10:45 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Aside from some speculation about Luka's diet, I don't think we're seeing any actionable problem being described, or any solutions proposed. Mainly, just a running data stream of stats indicating how terrible Luka's plus minus is in some respect or another. Like any other data source, we can pay as much attention to this one as we think it merits.
We may not see where these reports are leading, but this is the first season that we have been treated to breathless, MBM reports of Luka's +/-. So that is a new feature of the board that is pretty cool! Many thanks to Kamm for the effort!
I don't know the solutions. And I am not the coach or GM, so I have no power anyway. But I am a fan watching Luka and this team struggle in so many ways (despite having a 7-4 record).
I am sorry you are not a fan of the updates on Luka's lineups performances (you can put me on ignore if that helps I guess). But to me it is THE story of the early season. I have no memory of a player as great and talented as Luka having his lineups struggle so consistently for such a long stretch (we are 13.4% of the way through the season already). Luka (and Dirk before him in even a larger way) have so consistently been part of successful lineups (from the bird's eye view), that this really feels like new charted territory for us as Mavs fans. And my contention and concern has been: if this phenomenon doesn't change then I am not sure where the record ends up and I certainly don't have hopes of getting past the first round.
(11-11-2021, 10:45 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Mainly, just a running data stream of stats indicating how terrible Luka's plus minus is in some respect or another. Like any other data source, we can pay as much attention to this one as we think it merits.
I also see speculation about why particular lineups aren't working
(11-11-2021, 09:51 AM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]Luka
I find "Luka is fat and unprofesional" theories extremely disrespectful. Its basically totally same thing as me repeating over and over 50 times a day how I am worried "insert favorite poster name" has an IQ of 50, because his posts don't look intelligent to me. I think no one would like that. None of us really knows how hard (or not) Luka works out, what is his prefered playing weight or how muscolar or not he is. We actually know that he is extremely strong, shown both in his games and opponents/teammates statements. We also know he is a very good basketball player. We also know that Mavs were a tanking team in his rookie season and are a solid playoff contender ever since.
There are many possible reasons for Luka slump. One of them, which I think has not been considered enough, is a fact that Luka played competitive basketball year round. He had first peak of the season in the playoffs and he showed as best version of himself. Than he immediately had Olympic qualifiers where he was again his best self again. That was followed by Olympic tournament where Luka again looked like best player in the world. I think it is impossible to be "on fire" year round. I think most of players have their ups and downs during long season with the goal being to be in top form in time it matters most. I think Luka simply needs to recharge his batteries more from mental then physical perspective. Become "hungry" again. It is very difficult to get up after your peak of the season is finished and be your best self in the endless 82 games regular season. I have little worries Luka will come around at some point.
(11-11-2021, 10:58 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I don't know the solutions. And I am not the coach or GM, so I have no power anyway. But I am a fan watching Luka and this team struggle in so many ways (despite having a 7-4 record).
I am sorry you are not a fan of the updates on Luka's lineups performances (you can put me on ignore if that helps I guess).
To the contrary. It has never even occurred to me to put you on ignore. Looks like it is a lot of work to pick out, organize, and present these stats. Thanks for going to all that trouble!
But to me it is THE story of the early season. I have no memory of a player as great and talented as Luka having his lineups struggle so consistently for such a long stretch (we are 13.4% of the way through the season already). Luka (and Dirk before him in even a larger way) have so consistently been part of successful lineups (from the bird's eye view), that this really feels like new charted territory for us as Mavs fans. And my contention and concern has been: if this phenomenon doesn't change then I am not sure where the record ends up and I certainly don't have hopes of getting past the first round.
I agree that the Mavs aren't yet what we hoped this season, and have no problem with you or anyone else mentioning and discussing that fact.
It's just that I think we are seeing a little frustration from some posters on receiving all these negative stats about Luka, in the sense of, "So, where are you going with this anyway? You want Luka traded? Benched? Sent to fat man's camp? What?"
I think it is easier to appreciate your efforts if we know that you are actually not purporting to describe specific actionable problems that you think they can solve, or proposing any particular solutions. You are simply organizing and reporting data as it develops, as a service to the board, and we can make of it what we will.
Kamm, it is never my intention to hurt anybody's feelings. Although we have our fair share of disagreements, and that can be uncomfortable, I think they sometimes result in some pretty good discussions on the board, with a number of sides of an issue being examined in depth.
I see comments in various places to the effect that Kidd & co. are "playing in the sandbox" for the first 20-25 games, roughly the first 25% of the season. Ostensibly, this is to get a feel for who is capable of what and how the team functions in a new scheme and that they are OK with giving up a few wins to get through this time. Some of the goals are to get KP more involved and happier, get Luka's load down a bit so he's fresher late in games and see how the new guys fit.
However, everything looks pretty static to my eyes. Same starting lineup, pretty similar rotations, consistent inefficiencies. Lost to contender or near-contender teams. Won over lottery or short handed teams, but often not without a struggle. Nobody really believes the record. Actual team point diff is negative despite record.
Am I missing something here?
(11-11-2021, 11:35 AM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]Am I missing something here?
Well, I'd submit that the starting lineup isn't nearly as big of a deal to the team as it is to fans. I mean, it's contributing to the slow starts, which is concerning, obviously. Other than that, I'm not sure it's a big deal at all, and I don't think it's clear that the combo of players is
THE reason for the slow starts, personally. I think that the
team isn't running their offensive system (in so far as there is one) very well yet. A subjective argument can be made that changing the starting lineup might prolong that problem rather than solve it.
And, I do think Kidd's rotations (apart from the starting lineup) have been BONKERS. Seemingly random, in many ways. I do get the sense that there is a crap ton of experimentation going on with player combos once the subs start coming in.
So, I see where that "sandbox" idea is coming from, to an extent. But, is he learning from this, like Carlisle always did early season, or his he just randomly trying things, nearing panic? Too early to tell, imo.
(11-11-2021, 11:47 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]So, I see where that "sandbox" idea is coming from, to an extent.
I haven't thought of it as "playing in the sandbox" which sounds kind of haphazard. But we have heard from both Kidd and Nico (Kidd mulitiple times) something like "we'll see what we have around Christmas", "we'll know more about our team after 20 or 25 games".
My interpretation of those statements has been that they have as a goal, to spend a somewhat predetermined time of the season doing information gathering for the sake of future planning. And my guess is that the information would be for the Coach to use the data to make decisions on how to proceed with lineups and system. And my guess is that the front office would use that information to inform their roster vision and plans.
Related to all this, but slightly diffrent, are the comments about diversifying the offense and having some players do more because the Luka centric spread pick and roll has limitations if it's the only thing the team can do. It makes the team too predictable in the playoffs and puts an massive load on Luka. In my mind, that's where the experimentation comes in. It looks like there is experimentation for individual players to see if they can expand their role, and experimentation with the offensive system.
NOTE: I could be wrong on the system though. Maybe that's just flat out decided and what we're seeing is just the process of learning the system.
If I take all this and apply it to the questions about Luka, it leads me to speculate that Kidd is actually asking Luka to do less for the sake of the team. And it's possible that taking the foot off the gass a little, and intentionally letting others do their thing, is an adjustment for Luka that he has to work through. And that adjustment could account for what we see as Luka being less effective.