(11-09-2021, 10:00 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]It would be great if he took that particular page form Dirk's playbook.
Yep! I am hopeful that Dirk being part of the organization will be a way to make inroads there. As I have stated elsewhere: Dirk and Nash did not get into the MVP conversation until their diet/conditioning was taken to an elite level.
(11-09-2021, 10:00 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]You do include some analysis and opinions in there as well (not just data), which you should (!)...that's what we do. Just curious about your thoughts.
Regarding Luka's diet, I completely agree. Seems to me that diet and fitness have a ton to do wth longevity and sustained level of play in the league. Some players that never pick that up, in fact, burn our really quickly. Hope he gets that sorted out. It would be great if he took that particular page form Dirk's playbook.
Trying to sort out opinions from data a bit, it seems to be taken as a given that Luka eats an unhealthy diet and doesn't keep himself in good condition.
My question is, do we know that to be true via information that has been released or reported, or are we making the assessment based on watching him in games? Early last season, he admitted himself that he wasn't in shape, being surprised by the season's early start. Has he said something like that this season?
Like, has Luka's diet been made public? (If so, I would find it very interesting.) Or, if we don't know the details, has it been reported that he has been eating improperly or slacking off on his conditioning? We can see that he sometimes lumbers down the court a bit, but that could be either conditioning or a variety of other reasons.
His body has some softness to it, which may or may not represent overweight. Even in normally mesomorphic, well-conditioned athletic bodies, some will have a genetic tendency to preserve a layer of fat, particularly when they're under 25, but sometimes even after that. Serena is an example. (It's considered "good genes" in times/areas where food is scarce.)
Just thinking about it, I couldn't think of anything I had seen or heard on it this season, but I could have missed something. It just occurred to me that I seemed to be regarding it as the wisdom of the ages that Luka is out of shape, when in fact I don't really know that at all. As far as I know, Luka doesn't have a history of conducting himself unprofessionally, so I don't know why he would choose to do so regarding health and conditioning. I'm not saying he is or isn't, just questioning whether we actually know for sure.
(11-09-2021, 11:22 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Trying to sort out opinions from data a bit, it seems to be taken as a given that Luka eats an unhealthy diet and doesn't keep himself in good condition.
My question is, do we know that to be true via information that has been released or reported, or are we making the assessment based on watching him in games? Early last season, he admitted himself that he wasn't in shape, being surprised by the season's early start. Has he said something like that this season?
Like, has Luka's diet been made public? (If so, I would find it very interesting.) Or, if we don't know the details, has it been reported that he has been eating improperly or slacking off on his conditioning? We can see that he sometimes lumbers down the court a bit, but that could be either conditioning or a variety of other reasons.
His body has some softness to it, which may or may not represent overweight. Even in normally mesomorphic, well-conditioned athletic bodies, some will have a genetic tendency to preserve a layer of fat, particularly when they're under 25, but sometimes even after that. Serena is an example. (It's considered "good genes" in times/areas where food is scarce.)
Just thinking about it, I couldn't think of anything I had seen or heard on it this season, but I could have missed something. It just occurred to me that I seemed to be regarding it as the wisdom of the ages that Luka is out of shape, when in fact I don't really know that at all. As far as I know, Luka doesn't have a history of conducting himself unprofessionally, so I don't know why he would choose to do so regarding health and conditioning. I'm not saying he is or isn't, just questioning whether we actually know for sure.
I can't offer anything but memory and the eye test, which I admit are quite problematic. But there has been chatter regarding Luka's eating in the past.
My eye test says that he carries a higher body fat percentage than a typical NBA player. That eye test + past chatter about Luka's eating is what leads me to speculate about Luka's current ability to say no to going to Waterburger with Raymond Felton, Shanw Kemp and Zion.
Maybe he has that completely sorted out and my speculation is way off, just like so many of my other fan takes.
(11-09-2021, 11:22 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]has Luka's diet been made public?
Over the last four years I am quite confident that it is has come out that Luka 1) has a sweet tooth and 2) loves alcohol even during the season. Dirk and Nash for instance gave up both of those things to take their game to a different level.
I think Dirk and Nash are great examples, because neither guy had a body type that would look like Dwight Howard (ripped), but you could see in their arms, faces, chins, and body clearly when they had gotten their diets in order. You can tell a lot from Luka's arms, face, and chin and how they look from year to year and from the beginning of the year to the end even.
Here is a side by side of Luka on the first game of last season against PHX (Dec 23, 2020) and the game against BOS (Nov 6, 2021). It was pretty much consensus that Luka started last season in the worst shape of his life and he and Cuban admitted he thought they wouldn't start for another couple months. And yet this year his body looks to be in worse shape to me (definitely carrying more weight, which doesn't look like "good weight" to me) and his body looks "softer" than it ever has.
![[Image: Screenshot-2021-11-09-11.00.59-AM.png]](http://stlukeskck.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Screenshot-2021-11-09-11.00.59-AM.png)
And beyond body analysis, I see Luka laboring up and down the court (and have wondered outloud if he is nursing an injury/tendinitis). I don't see him out of breath the way he was last season, but I see him a step slower. Struggling to get to the rim in the same way he has in season's past. I also see his outside shot looking poor (29% from three so far, bad like the beginning of last season when he was out of shape).
While I agree Luka has been spotty to poor this season, there has to be something going on. I had in mind comments by Kidd this summer that he wanted to revive the mid-range game so the team could be effective when 3pt shots weren't falling.
Comparing the 10 games this season to all of last season (I know, small sample size, noise issues, etc.)
Luka's PITP are about even (21/22 vs 20/21) at 40.2% vs 40.0% of points scored respectively.
3pt is down 27.7% vs 31.5% of points scored respectively. Not shooting well (29.5% vs 35%) but he started poorly last year and came on strong later.
2pt mid-range is up a lot 17.7% vs 9.7% of point scored respectively. And he's shooting the 2pt shots slightly worse so far this year (52.5% vs 56.5%)
I'm just trying to quantify the eye test by looking at more granular performance metrics that might contribute to +/-.
Not sure how to measure defensive performance. Rebounds are flat, steals down a tick, blocks up a tic on a per game basis. Other than shooting better, he shouldn't be showing the negative performance measure due to offense. Is he working harder to get to a mid-range? Is that on direction from Kidd or something he's trying to add on purpose.
(11-09-2021, 12:09 PM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]Luka's PITP are about even (21/22 vs 20/21) at 40.2% vs 40.0% of points scored respectively.
Thanks for all the numbers.
This one is the most interesting to me. My gut would have said he was down in PITP, but apparently I was wrong on that. Interesting.
(11-09-2021, 12:21 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]I had not heard anything about going to "Waterburger," but what do I know, lol.
I called Whataburger, Waterburger
I'm a native Texan, was riding my bike to Whataburger with my brother to feast on Just-a-burgers by age 10. And I called Whataburger, Waterburger.
I should be put in time out for a while.
(11-09-2021, 12:07 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]nd beyond body analysis, I see Luka laboring up and down the court (and have wondered outloud if he is nursing an injury/tendinitis). I don't see him out of breath the way he was last season, but I see him a step slower. Struggling to get to the rim in the same way he has in season's past. I also see his outside shot looking poor (29% from three so far, bad like the beginning of last season when he was out of shape).
Looks like he's carrying an extra 20-30 lbs compared to last year.
Since the start of the 19/20 season, he hasn't really had a break from competition.
Start season in fall 2019, season halted in March 2020.
"Bubble" season and seeding games started in July 2020 and DAL played until eliminated on August 30th.
20/21 season started on Dec 22nd with short notice and Dal played until eliminated on June 6th.
Slovenia's Olympic team played first scrimmage game on June 16th and finished qualifying tournament on July 4th.
Olympic tournament started on July 26th and finished on August 7th.
NBA 2021/22 pre-season started on October 3rd, with camp opening a couple weeks before.
Somewhere in the middle of all this Luka signed a $200+ supermax contract extension.
I'm guessing the time Luka spent between finishing the Olympic tournament and reporting to training camp (~6 weeks) was not spent grinding in a gym or weight room. And probably not monitoring his diet very closely either.
(11-09-2021, 12:32 PM)michaeltex Wrote: [ -> ]Looks like he's carrying an extra 20-30 lbs compared to last year.
Yep, totally agree. On a 6'8" frame it could honestly be more, but I think your guess is pretty decent.
And I think you are spot on that Luka's schedule hasn't done him any favors. And that's why I keep coming back to diet...even when your schedule sucks and gives no room for weight training or rest, diet is STILL your best friend.
(11-09-2021, 09:39 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Absolutely. I made a comment in another post that the coaching staff is probably being really patient with his subpar play because he is being put outside of his comfort zone.
New theory: Luka's doing what the coaching staff is asking.
The single biggest criticism of the Mavs for the last two seasons has been that Luka is amazing, but the supporting cast is failing to support him. If he wasn't performing Luka magic, the team collectively and repeatedly went to trash. This season, the team is actually playing well when Luka goes to the bench. So when our HOF point guard turned coach (who, whatever legitimate criticism there are of his record, also has a track record of being willing to think outside the box) went to see him before the season, maybe he said, "Look, we all know you're the engine that drives this team. But you're so good, that it's stunting the growth of the rest of the team--they're all standing around waiting for you to win the game instead of learning how to help you do that. So, to start the season, dial it back. You play at 75% while I whip the rest of these guys into shape, so when the games really start to count you can be the closer we all know you are meant to be instead of spending all your energy just keeping the team in the game for the first 3 quarters."
(For the record, I don't buy 'out of shape'--Kamm is undoubtedly right that Luka could improve relative to his current base line as per his Nash and Dirk examples, but to my eye-test he looks about the same as he did in the Olympics. I also don't buy that he's unhappy--his body language when his teammates are succeeding is nothing but joy. I might buy that he's just exhausted or nursing some sort of long-term but minor pain)
(11-09-2021, 01:43 PM)Arioch Wrote: [ -> ]I also don't buy that he's unhappy--his body language when his teammates are succeeding is nothing but joy.
Great overall post.
You are spot on about this. Luka is absolutely HAPPY for his teammates and team success right now. No debate there. And it is GOOD to see.
(11-09-2021, 01:43 PM)Arioch Wrote: [ -> ]New theory: Luka's doing what the coaching staff is asking.
The single biggest criticism of the Mavs for the last two seasons has been that Luka is amazing, but the supporting cast is failing to support him. If he wasn't performing Luka magic, the team collectively and repeatedly went to trash. This season, the team is actually playing well when Luka goes to the bench. So when our HOF point guard turned coach (who, whatever legitimate criticism there are of his record, also has a track record of being willing to think outside the box) went to see him before the season, maybe he said, "Look, we all know you're the engine that drives this team. But you're so good, that it's stunting the growth of the rest of the team--they're all standing around waiting for you to win the game instead of learning how to help you do that. So, to start the season, dial it back. You play at 75% while I whip the rest of these guys into shape, so when the games really start to count you can be the closer we all know you are meant to be instead of spending all your energy just keeping the team in the game for the first 3 quarters."
(For the record, I don't buy 'out of shape'--Kamm is undoubtedly right that Luka could improve relative to his current base line as per his Nash and Dirk examples, but to my eye-test he looks about the same as he did in the Olympics. I also don't buy that he's unhappy--his body language when his teammates are succeeding is nothing but joy. I might buy that he's just exhausted or nursing some sort of long-term but minor pain)
Interesting! Food for thought!
(11-09-2021, 12:25 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]I called Whataburger, Waterburger
I'm a native Texan, was riding my bike to Whataburger with my brother to feast on Just-a-burgers by age 10. And I called Whataburger, Waterburger.
I should be put in time out for a while.
Ah, lol.
I remember What-a-Burger fondly from my college days. I'm good with Waterburger, haha.
Y’all are both spelling “in-n-out burger” incorrectly.
(11-09-2021, 03:18 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Y’all are both spelling “in-n-out burger” incorrectly.
In-n-Out became an acceptable alternative spelling when Whataburger started costing $40 for a family of 4.
Another data point:
Luka was a team worst -20 against CHI. The Mavs were +10 when he was on the bench.
In 8 of 11 games Luka has been the worst or 2nd worst in +/- for the Mavs.
(11-10-2021, 10:24 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Another data point:
Luka was a team worst -20 against CHI. The Mavs were +10 when he was on the bench.
In 8 of 11 games Luka has been the worst or 2nd worst in +/- for the Mavs.
Beyond coming into another season out of shape, maybe he's realized this iteration the Mavs peaked last year. There are just times it seems like he is fed up and is quitting on the team.
(11-10-2021, 10:30 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]There are just times it seems like he is fed up and is quitting on the team.
He has seemed happy for teammates and team success, but he DOES seem frustrated and unmotivated. It doesn't feel like he is trying and giving full effort most of the time.
But even when he gives full effort he seems a legitimate step slower than in his first three years. I think he needs to shed 20+ lbs. He will never out-athlete guys, but if he loses all his athleticism he will not be what he once was.
(11-10-2021, 10:34 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]He has seemed happy for teammates and team success, but he DOES seem frustrated and unmotivated. It doesn't feel like he is trying and giving full effort most of the time.
But even when he gives full effort he seems a legitimate step slower than in his first three years. I think he needs to shed 20+ lbs. He will never out-athlete guys, but if he loses all his athleticism he will not be what he once was.
I do believe Luka is a good dude and teammate who loves to see others successful. At the same time, he has to realize the talent around him is nowhere close enough to being a contender. That's probably a hard pill to swallow when you've known nothing but success. Being outmatched talentwise in the Olympics when you are from a tiny country is one thing, but when you are a professional in the world's best league it's another. I mention this a lot but Luka's joy in the Olympics were reminiscent of his rookie season. We still see that joy from time to time (game winners) but it often seems like his time with the Mavericks feel more like a job than something he loves.
He does have some growing up to do. Being an athlete is a year round thing and he hasn't committed to that yet.
And even still, I start to ask myself the same question that so many asked about Dirk. Can you when you a championship with him? That's probably way too premature to think that way, but it is what it is.
So...can I ask why everyone is taking the Luka situation so serious without the disclaimer that we could be tanking on purpose and Luka is in on it with the Big Wigs? Or is that not possible/smart with our draft assets or lack there of?
Seems like he's not trying...but on purpose. Either to get a better draft pick, because he doesnt care(I dont believe this to be the case), because he thinks Mavs are a few years away or because he is not professional.
Everyone seems to suggest that he is unprofessional and doesnt care...but I dont know about that. Maybe if I had more clarification on their draft assets and if tanking was reasonable or not. If he is giving a middle finger to the FO for trash roster...you better hope for miracle work from Nico or Luka is gone, imo.