(04-14-2021, 08:53 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Below is from The Athletic Power Rankings (Mav's fall to 10th). They also did a Best/Worst Lineup piece. Strange stuff for Dallas. It would be interesting to see this post 2/1.
10. Dallas Mavericks (↓Previously 8th), 29-23, +2.2 net rating
Weekly slate: Win over Jazz, Loss at Rockets, Win over Bucks, Loss to Spurs
Good lineup: Jalen Brunson | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Dorian Finney-Smith | Josh Richardson | Kristaps Porzingis
Stats: 130.1 offensive rating | 105.7 defensive rating | +24.4 net rating | 102 minutes played | 2nd most used lineup
Why it’s important: You’ll notice this Mavericks lineup doesn’t have its franchise guy, Luka Doncic, in this lineup. And this group absolutely demolishes opponents who get in their way. Part of this lineup is propaganda for Jalen Brunson being the rightful owner of the 2021 NBA Sixth Man of the Year award. It’s good to see the Mavs don’t just survive without Doncic on the floor, but they can outright dominate with this lineup. It’s encouraging for his minutes in the postseason and leaving him fresh for the end of games.
Bad lineup: Luka Doncic | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Dorian Finney-Smith | Josh Richardson | Kristaps Porzingis
Stats: 108.1 offensive rating | 133.5 defensive rating | -25.4 net rating | 76 minutes played | 3rd most used lineup
Question that arises: It’s absolutely nuts that this lineup with Doncic has performed almost the complete inverse as this lineup with Brunson instead of the franchise player. So I guess the question then becomes, does this mean anything? It might be pandemic-season madness and randomness in these numbers. Or maybe Doncic just needs a bigger lineup than what this provides for him? When you replace Tim Hardaway Jr. with Maxi Kleiber, we see that lineup perform extremely well (+15.2). But for some reason, this combination has been a disaster and the Mavs need to figure out why it can’t score or defend.
Fascinating, thanks for posting this.
THJ + Richardson sharing the floor has been a problem all season long. -112 in 706 minutes. By far the worst two man combination that is playing major minutes. Offfense tanks when both share the floor. 108.5 O-rating. 114.2 D-Rating. -5.7 net rating. Worst among all two-man combinations that played more than 300 minutes.
56.6% TS when both are on the floor. Again.Worst among all two-man combinations that played more than 300 minutes. Also rank in the bottom 5 in ast/tov ratio and rebounding rate.
Just a terrible fit. Not enough shot creation on offense. A SG sized wing defending the opposing SF on defense. Two below average rebounders playing next to each other.
(04-14-2021, 08:53 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Below is from The Athletic Power Rankings (Mav's fall to 10th). They also did a Best/Worst Lineup piece. Strange stuff for Dallas. It would be interesting to see this post 2/1.
Yeah, that was really fascinating, so I dove a bit deeper in the numbers. The "Brunson" line-up basicaly didn't play together before February. "Luka" lineup logged 31 minutes in this stretch, so almost half of their total minutes. This was of course stretch hit by injuries and tough schedule.
In February "Brunson" lineup logged 36 minutes and was net negative -6.6. "Luka" one played 27 minutes and was negative at -9.1. Brunson unit had most of their minutes in first and third quarter where they were positive. They were absolutely killed in the fourth quarter with negative -115 in 7 minutes
Doncic unit got almost half of their minutes in the fourth quarter and they were negative 18 in this stretch (most used 4th quarter unit). These are of course very small samples.
March was the month where Brunson unit got most minutes and best result. This correlates with best stretch of Mavs basketball this season. They have an awesome +47 net rating in this stretch, absolutely killing it in the first half with a positive 58 rating. Interestingly they logged only 2 minutes in the final quarter and were killed again with -75 in this stretch. "Doncic" unit played only 9 minutes in March and were awful -29.
Luka unit continues to be bad in April with -27, while Brunson unit is at 12. Brunson unit continues to dominate first quarters while Luka one was destroyed in thrid quarters. However, April gives extremely small sample.
Overall I would say Brunson unit is killing it in the second half of first quarter and second one. The unit also profited from overall good March performance when both THJ and Brunson were excellent. Minutes of Doncic unit were much dispersed all around and I can't decipher a pattern when they play together. It is a real mistery why this particular group shows so bad numbers. For example: 4 out of 5 most used 4th quarter lineups used both Luka and KP with different combinations of THJ, Brunson, Kleber, DFS and JRich along them. Two units are excellent +42, one unit is decent +9 and "Luka" unit is -22. The only pattern I could see - "worse" units include THJ and good ones doesn't. "Brunson unit" is unbelievable negative 109 in the fourth quarters for the season
(04-14-2021, 10:59 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]THJ + Richardson sharing the floor has been a problem all season long. -112 in 706 minutes. By far the worst two man combination that is playing major minutes. Offfense tanks when both share the floor. 108.5 O-rating. 114.2 D-Rating. -5.7 net rating. Worst among all two-man combinations that played more than 300 minutes.
56.6% TS when both are on the floor. Again.Worst among all two-man combinations that played more than 300 minutes. Also rank in the bottom 5 in ast/tov ratio and rebounding rate.
Just a terrible fit. Not enough shot creation on offense. A SG sized wing defending the opposing SF on defense. Two below average rebounders playing next to each other.
Sure, but all of this doesn't explain why JRich and THJ actually work very well together with Brunson but not with Luka.
(04-14-2021, 11:29 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Luka unit continues to be bad in April with -27
Luka's impact in the last 14 games has been BAD, so it is no surprise that any lineup that he has played in recently is going to look poor.
(04-14-2021, 11:35 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]uka's impact in the last 14 games has been BAD, so it is no surprise that any lineup that he has played in recently is going to look poor.
Which is actualy not true. Starting lineup (Luka, KP, Richardson, DFS, Kleber) was most used lineup and was +30 in this stretch. Problem - they only played 2 together games in April. So perhaps the problem is more in the fact that different guys were constantly missing games in April.
(04-14-2021, 11:39 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Which is actualy not true.
What are you saying is not true?
This is a FACT:
The Mavs are 7.9 points BETTER without Luka in the last 14 games (268 mins) than with him (404 mins).
(04-14-2021, 11:29 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, that was really fascinating, so I dove a bit deeper in the numbers. The "Brunson" line-up basicaly didn't play together before February. "Luka" lineup logged 31 minutes in this stretch, so almost half of their total minutes. This was of course stretch hit by injuries and tough schedule.
In February "Brunson" lineup logged 36 minutes and was net negative -6.6. "Luka" one played 27 minutes and was negative at -9.1. Brunson unit had most of their minutes in first and third quarter where they were positive. They were absolutely killed in the fourth quarter with negative -115 in 7 minutes Doncic unit got almost half of their minutes in the fourth quarter and they were negative 18 in this stretch (most used 4th quarter unit). These are of course very small samples.
March was the month where Brunson unit got most minutes and best result. This correlates with best stretch of Mavs basketball this season. They have an awesome +47 net rating in this stretch, absolutely killing it in the first half with a positive 58 rating. Interestingly they logged only 2 minutes in the final quarter and were killed again with -75 in this stretch. "Doncic" unit played only 9 minutes in March and were awful -29.
Luka unit continues to be bad in April with -27, while Brunson unit is at 12. Brunson unit continues to dominate first quarters while Luka one was destroyed in thrid quarters. However, April gives extremely small sample.
Overall I would say Brunson unit is killing it in the second half of first quarter and second one. The unit also profited from overall good March performance when both THJ and Brunson were excellent. Minutes of Doncic unit were much dispersed all around and I can't decipher a pattern when they play together. It is a real mistery why this particular group shows so bad numbers. For example: 4 out of 5 most used 4th quarter lineups used both Luka and KP with different combinations of THJ, Brunson, Kleber, DFS and JRich along them. Two units are excellent +42, one unit is decent +9 and "Luka" unit is -22. The only pattern I could see - "worse" units include THJ and good ones doesn't. "Brunson unit" is unbelievable negative 109 in the fourth quarters for the season
Sure, but all of this doesn't explain why JRich and THJ actually work very well together with Brunson but not with Luka.
Brunson/Doncic +97 in 572 minutes
Brunson/THJ +38 in 829 minutes
Brunson/Richardson +26 in 552 minutes
Doncic/THJ +35 in 914 minutes
Doncic/Richardson -8 in 884 minutes
We cannot ignore that THJ and Doncic had to play without the rest of the starters for nearly a month but that obviously does not explain the recent numbers. Also have to factor in the easier schedule post allstar break.
Looking at 3-man combinations:
THJ/Richardson/Brunson -11 in 315 minutes
Richardson/THJ/Doncic -74 in 368 minutes
Brunson is awesome but even next to him the team has a negative net rating when both share the floor. I do think that Brunson´s spot up ability can help other guards but it´s not enough to overcome the lack of playmaking and shot creation. Offense is clearly worse but without Luka the defensive rating improves.
This takes us back to where the Mavs re right now.
Luka is whining about the playoff (play-in) setup, but is playing like suck and is the leader on a team that is losing lots of games. Take care of biz, by playing well and winning games, and the playoff issue takes care of itself. Try to do it by whining, and not so much.
"Luka the MVP" isn't playing like it at all. Even if they make the playoffs, they won't go far if this is who he is. (And if he is better than this, then he's gotta play like it.)
(04-14-2021, 11:51 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Brunson is awesome but even next to him the team has a negative net rating when both share the floor.
I don't understand this statement. 5 man unit consisting of THJ, JRich and Brunson next to KP and DFS is most successful Mavs unit. By far. Imho it is obvious that under certain circumstances THJ and JRich work well together. Why this is basically the only circumstance when they do, is beyond me
(04-14-2021, 11:52 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]This takes us back to where the Mavs re right now.
Luka is whining about the playoff (play-in) setup, but is playing like suck and is the leader on a team that is losing lots of games. Take care of biz, by playing well and winning games, and the playoff issue takes care of itself. Try to do it by whining, and not so much.
"Luka the MVP" isn't playing like it at all. Even if they make the playoffs, they won't go far if this is who he is. (And if he is better than this, then he's gotta play like it.)
You are totally unfair in this comment. Totally. I will not even try to explain everything where you are wrong.
(04-14-2021, 11:52 AM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]This takes us back to where the Mavs re right now.
Luka is whining about the playoff (play-in) setup, but is playing like suck and is the leader on a team that is losing lots of games. Take care of biz, by playing well and winning games, and the playoff issue takes care of itself. Try to do it by whining, and not so much.
"Luka the MVP" isn't playing like it at all. Even if they make the playoffs, they won't go far if this is who he is. (And if he is better than this, then he's gotta play like it.)
My easy explanation. He is tired and probably also suffers from a few minor injuries. Also cannot forget the non Covid related illness a few weeks ago. For me that was the chaning point. Feels like he played with less energy in the last few games.
In a way last years playoffs bubble was a blessing for him. Time to recover. A few games to get back into rhythm. Peak Luka in the playoffs.
Right now we are seeing late february/early march Luka from last season. Already started the season out of shape and even though he improved it is nearly impossible to get into the best possible shape with the foundation. That´s on him and I will be really disappointed if the same happens again in the future.
(04-14-2021, 12:05 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]My easy explanation. He is tired and probably also suffers from a few minor injuries. Also cannot forget the non Covid related illness a few weeks ago. For me that was the chaning point. Feels like he played with less energy in the last few games.
All that is true. But also the following. Mavs are 6-4 in last 10 games. Not bad, actually. Luka played 9 of them, Mavs won 6. KP missed 4 games in this stretch, Maxi 3 and so on. Only Brunson, THJ and DFS played all 10.
Why I remain optimistic, if Mavs can bring full team to playoffs. Mavs only managed to play 19 games with the starting line-up of Luka, KP, Maxi, DFS, JRich. They won 15 of those for 78 % win percentage.
For example: Utah had their best lineup out for 40 games. They won 28 of those, good for 70 % win percentage. Phoenix had their best lineup for 45 games and won 34 of those. 75 % win percentage.
You guys have all sorts of excuses for Luka. But the bottom line is that there are plenty of excuses for every player and every team, but as Parcells used to say, you are who you are.
The last 10 games they are only 6-4. That's against a fairly soft schedule, and doesn't make up ground on any good team. Right now, like it or not, that's who they are - and since it's Luka's team, that's what he has to offer these days. Even if they make the playoffs, that's not the sort of performance level that hints they will get anywhere other than 1-and-done, considering how the level of playoff competition will be incredibly stiff instead of fairly easy.
(04-14-2021, 01:35 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]You guys have all sorts of excuses for Luka
I think Luka is tired and nursing an injury (or more), but that is not an excuse, everyone is at the same point in the season and it has been hard on all.
I think it all comes down to conditioning and shape and Luka is NOT CLOSE to the level of conditioning he needs to be an elite NBA player. He has faded in ALL three of his seasons in pretty significant ways IMO. This is 100% on him not having the diet and work ethic he needs.
I can see where the "we look like a 1-and-done team" comes from but we seem very inconsistent for the teams we show up for and the teams we lay eggs for. The playoffs are also a little different. Hopefully KP plays every game. Who knows if Luka can turn it up another notch again though. Last season he had the benefit of the pause to catch some rest and get healthier. He'll not have that luxury this year. I've noted in the last few games that he looks tired, even in the first quarter. Excuses were made for him coming into the season out of shape because of how wonky the schedule has been the past year but he needs to learn that being an athlete is a year round commitment.
(04-14-2021, 01:59 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I think it all comes down to conditioning and shape and Luka is NOT CLOSE to the level of conditioning he needs to be an elite NBA player. He has faded in ALL three of his seasons in pretty significant ways IMO. This is 100% on him not having the diet and work ethic he needs.
I agree Luka faded every season up to now. The judgement is still out on this one, imho. Last two games Luka played well, even according to his standards. Even against Philly defense. As far as fading - the way Mavs use him has something to do with it. You can't expect a player to carry such a weight to not wear down. So this is certainly not 100 % on him. Unfair to say so.
Luka has improved every season as a player, so I think it is very unfair to preach about work ethic. This goes even before speaking about extraordinary circumstances of the last offseason.
This is not about making excuses for him. It is about having reasonable expectations and being fair about players.
(04-14-2021, 02:36 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I agree Luka faded every season up to now. The judgement is still out on this one, imho. Last two games Luka played well, even according to his standards. Even against Philly defense. As far as fading - the way Mavs use him has something to do with it. You can't expect a player to carry such a weight to not wear down. So this is certainly not 100 % on him. Unfair to say so.
Luka has improved every season as a player, so I think it is very unfair to preach about work ethic. This goes even before speaking about extraordinary circumstances of the last offseason.
This is not about making excuses for him. It is about having reasonable expectations and being fair about players.
Completely agree. The Luka hate is getting weird. It’s like we didn’t learn anything with Dirk. He’s asked to carry an enormous burden and we can see clearly every time he’s out or on the bench just how little help he truly gets from our other guards and wings. And it doesn’t help that KP misses so often. And once you get past KP none of our other bigs are very helpful offensively to him. Maxi provides spacing but Luka still has to work his ass off to set those shots up for him. He’s been pretty good so far at identifying weaknesses in his game and improving on them each year. So if conditioning is a problem I fully expect him to fix it this off-season. This Luka situation is starting to remind me so much of how some fans treated Dirk. I just don’t understand it.