MavsBoard

(02-13-2021, 08:13 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Edit: and yes, we did foul up the draft. I'm ready to concede that now with regard to Green and Terry. I think the jury's going to be out on Tiger for a while.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1360723687364771840

(02-14-2021, 02:41 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/i/status/1360723687364771840

Just wanted to post that  
The only thing that still bothers me is that he has no faceup game. But I like his potential of guarding the big wings. 
I still think peoplehere are being to harsh on our rookies.

(02-13-2021, 09:41 PM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]Our defense was showing signs of being quite good before the 1-2 punch of losing all our best defensive players to COVID + KP coming back and playing terrible defense. Ideally both of those problems can be solved with time.

If memory serves, Dallas got all the way to #2 in the league in D-Rating for like a day.  You are correct to identify KP's return (and COVID) as among the reasons that changed.  Here is where we are with our Centers based on data from pbstats.com

Powell's D-Rating On is 107.76 and his D-Rating Off is 118.11.  The issue this season has been what happens to the O when Powell is on the floor.  O-Rating On is 109.35 vs. O-Rating Off of 114.62.

KP is the opposite.  His D-Rating On is 124.77 (a huge outlier compared to the rest of his career).  His D-Rating Off is 110.75.  The offensive end is positive (116.68 On vs. 112.26 Off), but it doesn't (yet) make up for the defensive deficiencies.

Willie is net positive both defensively and offensively.  D = 110.59 On and 118.64 Off.  O = 117.48 On and 112.07 Off (the O On number is a huge outlier compared to the rest of his career).

Going through the rest of the lineup, here are the net D-Ratings:

Maxi     +2.73 (his O number is +2.46)
JRich    -9.16 (his O number is +4.81)  
DFS     -4.25 (his O number is +7.32)
JB       +4.34 (his O number is is -5.5...playing when Luka sits "might" impact this)
THJ      -4.31 (his O number is +4.46)
Luka    -2.02 (his O number is +13.15.  We might want to keep him despite his D)

BTW, as you might imagine, Green and Iwundu's D numbers are positive (but the O dies when they play).  Burke and Johnson are negatives at both ends of the floor (though Johnson is close to neutral defensively, but awful offensively).

Note this is all fairly small sample sizes with a good portion of the season impacted by COVID and KP's slow return.  Who you get to play with has a HUGE impact on these numbers.  Turns out Dwight wasn't as "unplayable" as some made out early in the season...at least defensively.  In the same way that Luka makes one dimensional offensive players look like net positives, something is dragging down the defensive numbers.  Interestingly, guys with some of the best defensive reputations (KP, DFS and JRich) are showing some of the worst defensive net numbers.  IMHO it is too early to judge as all three of those guys have very good reasons to not be 100% yet.  As I posted yesterday, the O in February has been unbelievably good.  The question is whether we can get some defensive swagger back.

(02-14-2021, 10:27 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]If memory serves, Dallas got all the way to #2 in the league in D-Rating for like a day.  You are correct to identify KP's return (and COVID) as among the reasons that changed.  Here is where we are with our Centers based on data from pbstats.com

Powell's D-Rating On is 107.76 and his D-Rating Off is 118.11.  The issue this season has been what happens to the O when Powell is on the floor.  O-Rating On is 109.35 vs. O-Rating Off of 114.62.

KP is the opposite.  His D-Rating On is 124.77 (a huge outlier compared to the rest of his career).  His D-Rating Off is 110.75.  The offensive end is positive (116.68 On vs. 112.26 Off), but it doesn't (yet) make up for the defensive deficiencies.

Willie is net positive both defensively and offensively.  D = 110.59 On and 118.64 Off.  O = 117.48 On and 112.07 Off (the O On number is a huge outlier compared to the rest of his career).

Going through the rest of the lineup, here are the net D-Ratings:

Maxi     +2.73 (his O number is +2.46)
JRich    -9.16 (his O number is +4.81)  
DFS     -4.25 (his O number is +7.32)
JB       +4.34 (his O number is is -5.5...playing when Luka sits "might" impact this)
THJ      -4.31 (his O number is +4.46)
Luka    -2.02 (his O number is +13.15.  We might want to keep him despite his D)

BTW, as you might imagine, Green and Iwundu's D numbers are positive (but the O dies when they play).  Burke and Johnson are negatives at both ends of the floor (though Johnson is close to neutral defensively, but awful offensively).

Note this is all fairly small sample sizes with a good portion of the season impacted by COVID and KP's slow return.  Who you get to play with has a HUGE impact on these numbers.  Turns out Dwight wasn't as "unplayable" as some made out early in the season...at least defensively.  In the same way that Luka makes one dimensional offensive players look like net positives, something is dragging down the defensive numbers.  Interestingly, guys with some of the best defensive reputations (KP, DFS and JRich) are showing some of the worst defensive net numbers.  IMHO it is too early to judge as all three of those guys have very good reasons to not be 100% yet.  As I posted yesterday, the O in February has been unbelievably good.  The question is whether we can get some defensive swagger back.

Re: Powell - I have stated, as the former vice president of the Dwight Powell Haters Club, that he has been a very pleasant surprise since Covid. Looking far more like himself than before quarantine, and playing his ass off. My only issue with him right now is that I still think he's paid too much for what he brings.

(02-14-2021, 11:26 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]I still think he's paid too much for what he brings.

Well, what he's bringing these days is small 8th man minutes some nights and DNP's the other nights, when WCS plays. So yeah, he's definitely overpaid for THIS role. 

When they signed him to the deal, they were signing a 5th starter at a bargain. I still think that's closer to what he is, if he's right. And, he should fit great with Porzingis, only KP doesn't seem interested in playing that way anymore. It's a weird situation.

(02-14-2021, 11:31 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Well, what he's bringing these days is small 8th man minutes some nights and DNP's the other nights, when WCS plays. So yeah, he's definitely overpaid for THIS role. 

When they signed him to the deal, they were signing a 5th starter at a bargain. I still think that's closer to what he is, if he's right. And, he should fit great with Porzingis, only KP doesn't seem interested in playing that way anymore. It's a weird situation.

This is why I (and possibly Jet Terry) think we should look at adding a PF.  There is plenty of data that shows the team works well with KP next to WCS or Powell (Willie Cauley-Powell).  KP next to Maxi is also good and the evidence says it doesn’t work well when KP is next to DFS.  Despite that, KP wants to play next to Maxi and DFS and not with WCP.  

We have to have two centers beyond KP.  There are too many injuries in KP’s history and the occasional need for rest to not have both WC&P.  If we are going to acquiesce to KP, then I think we need a better version of Johnson.  It can be a starter level guy who moves Maxi to the bench.  It can also be a backup who keeps DFS playing fewer minutes at PF.  There are plenty of minutes at PG, SG and SF (144) to give 36 to Luka, 24 for Brunson and 28 each for THJ, JRich and DFS.  You could then run a platoon or KP/Maxi at C/PF replaced by WCP/New PF as long as the new PF can spread the floor.

(02-14-2021, 12:10 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]This is why I (and possibly Jet Terry) think we should look at adding a PF.

Whoa, whoa, whoa - I've been on that train for MONTHS. The 4 is ABSOLUTELY the focus right now, imo. I'm the founder of that club, and happy to have you (and possibly Jet Terry) on board!

---

(02-14-2021, 12:10 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]You could then run a platoon or KP/Maxi at C/PF replaced by WCP/New PF as long as the new PF can spread the floor.

YES! I wrote about this exact plan all day long a couple of days back. We even listed possible solutions to this, although today's suggestion of Bjelica wasn't among them that day, and he'd be great, imo.

(02-14-2021, 12:10 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Despite that, KP wants to play next to Maxi and DFS and not with WCP.

Did KP indicate that he doesn't want to play with WCS or DP?

(02-14-2021, 12:18 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Did KP indicate that he doesn't want to play with WCS or DP?

He hasn't called players out by name, but he has given several indications that he prefers to be the 5, and that he prefers to be directly involved in the actions, playing off of the ball-handler, as opposed to spacing for Luka/someone else to run actions. 

By default, this eliminates Powell and WCS, because they don't have the ability to play the spacer role. My hypothesis from a few days back, and what Dan is saying above, is that this creates a situation wherein Carlisle can only truly commit to three bigs on any given night. To play four of them consistently, another stretch big is required.

(02-14-2021, 12:13 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Whoa, whoa, whoa - I've been on that train for MONTHS. The 4 is ABSOLUTELY the focus right now, imo. I'm the founder of that club, and happy to have you (and possibly Jet Terry) on board!

---

YES! I wrote about this exact plan all day long a couple of days back. We even listed possible solutions to this, although today's suggestion of Bjelica wasn't among them that day, and he'd be great, imo.

Sorry, you are absolutely correct.  I was struck by something JT wrote this week and focused on that.

(02-14-2021, 12:21 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]He hasn't called players out by name, but he has given several indications that he prefers to be the 5, and that he prefers to be directly involved in the actions, playing off of the ball-handler, as opposed to spacing for Luka/someone else to run actions. 

By default, this eliminates Powell and WCS, because they don't have the ability to play the spacer role. My hypothesis from a few days back, and what Dan is saying above, is that this creates a situation wherein Carlisle can only truly commit to three bigs on any given night. To play four of them consistently, another stretch big is required.

Thanks for the clarification, KL. 

I guess I interpreted KP's remarks as meaning that he prefers to play a certain role, and that role entails a floor spacer at the four. I didn't interpret them as meaning that he doesn't even want to play if WCS or DP is on the court. 

WCS and DP don't usually play many minutes any more, and I think KP should and would be willing to cooperate with playing with one of them for a few minutes per game, even if that's not his preferred role. 

Nevertheless, I take your and Dan's point. If KP insists on playing most of his minutes in a way which is incompatible with a non-shooting four, then it doesn't make sense to keep paying DP big money for a combination of small minutes and DNP-CDs. 

I am not sure this situation has totally shaken out yet. But it bears following, to be sure.

(02-14-2021, 12:46 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]WCS and DP don't usually play many minutes any more, and I think KP should and would be willing to cooperate with playing with one of them for a few minutes per game, even if that's not his preferred role. 

I 100% agree, and based on how frequently @"DanSchwartzgan" wrote to remind us of the value of the Powell/KP pairing during this past off-season, I'd venture a guess that he does, too. 

But, for whatever reason, Carlisle has NOT given that plan much of a chance lately. It's possible that he has lost a little faith in Powell, or that Powell still isn't quite right, physically, but my read on it is that the decision has been based more on maximizing the benefits of Porzingis, and that KP's wishes have played a sizable role in the equation. 

This is a part of my reasoning lately for being kind of down on KP's future here. I just don't view him as a special enough player to warrant this type of 4-dimensional chess, synergy wise. Dirk, yes. Porzingis...I'm not as into it, yet.

(02-14-2021, 12:51 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]But, for whatever reason, Carlisle has NOT given that plan much of a chance lately. It's possible that he has lost a little faith in Powell, or that Powell still isn't quite right, physically, but my read on it is that the decision has been based more on maximizing the benefits of Porzingis, and that KP's wishes have played a sizable role in the equation. 

This is a part of my reasoning lately for being kind of down on KP's future here. I just don't view him as a special enough player to warrant this type of 4-dimensional chess, synergy wise. Dirk, yes. Porzingis...I'm not as into it, yet.

Thought-provoking observations. 

I hope that KP's defensive regression is a temporary thing, so that it might make sense to re-jigger the rotation/roster to accommodate his offensive strengths. If they are also having to figure out how to hide him defensively, that becomes a dicier proposition.

RE: KP's Role

I am 100% in the camp that believes some of RC's rotation choices are in an effort to assuage a somewhat disgruntled (or not quite content about his role) KP. I think RC has gone away from rotations that have historically given the team the best defense and best chance to win (KP+ DP....KP + WCS) in order to get KP happy offensively. Maybe once KP feels settled offensively then RC will start to move the rotation in a way that gets back to giving the team a better chance to get stops (and wins).

I am also in the camp that thinks if KP is this inflexible and has to be bent over backwards for then you...

1) Make him happy and pump his numbers up this season.

2) See if the team finds a way to be better in the process.

3) If the team is struggling to be super successful then you trade KP this summer.

(02-14-2021, 12:51 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I 100% agree, and based on how frequently @"DanSchwartzgan" wrote to remind us of the value of the Powell/KP pairing during this past off-season, I'd venture a guess that he does, too. 

But, for whatever reason, Carlisle has NOT given that plan much of a chance lately. It's possible that he has lost a little faith in Powell, or that Powell still isn't quite right, physically, but my read on it is that the decision has been based more on maximizing the benefits of Porzingis, and that KP's wishes have played a sizable role in the equation. 

This is a part of my reasoning lately for being kind of down on KP's future here. I just don't view him as a special enough player to warrant this type of 4-dimensional chess, synergy wise. Dirk, yes. Porzingis...I'm not as into it, yet.

Post achilles Powell looks toast so far.  Hopefully he regains a little bounce in his step next season.  

Yall are probably right about KP's wishes playing into Carlisle lineups but at the same time, post achilles Powell and WCS aren't good enough players or raise the ceiling of this team enough for the MBT to not placate KP.  Just my read into it.

Mavs now 27th in D....


....I miss last year's D.....

(02-14-2021, 10:26 PM)jesusshuttlesworth82 Wrote: [ -> ]Post achilles Powell looks toast so far.  Hopefully he regains a little bounce in his step next season.  

In the limited time since he has come back from Covid, I feel like I have seen signs that he is moving much better. And, he is one of the better defenders on this team – I’m not going to let people intimidate me into not saying that anymore.

I think it was Dan, but somebody pointed out today that his net rating is due to a poor offensive rating this year, which is due, of course, to him not getting to play off of Luka, directly involved in the actions. I honestly believe that is because of Porzingis. I would be fine with it if KP was holding up his end. Then, Powell would be a complete afterthought and that would be OK.