(05-28-2021, 04:32 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]The concern would be that some loony team would offer THJ superstar money, since you never know.
But
(a) the theory that something like that could happen, is a long way from it actually happening,
(b) he apparently likes this team, and
(c ) he's gotten the crazy money before and it was a disaster for him, so this time his priorities may be broader than just the dollars.
Also, while he's playing at the top of his game right now, it seems wise not to budget dollars based on a player's very best hot streak as his last deal is ending, but to instead negotiate for something more representative of his overall body of work. Hopefully that's how it will play out. $18M?
I highly suggest THJ take best offer at 29 years old if his value has increased significantly. Any other advice would be criminal, imo.
(05-28-2021, 04:47 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: [ -> ]I highly suggest THJ take best offer at 29 years old if his value has increased significantly. Any other advice would be criminal, imo.
I highly suggest that he signs a vet min deal with the Mavs but I might be biased.
(05-28-2021, 04:32 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]The concern would be that some loony team would offer THJ superstar money, since you never know.
But
(a) the theory that something like that could happen, is a long way from it actually happening,
(b) he apparently likes this team, and
(c ) he's gotten the crazy money before and it was a disaster for him, so this time his priorities may be broader than just the dollars.
Also, while he's playing at the top of his game right now, it seems wise not to budget dollars based on a player's very best hot streak as his last deal is ending, but to instead negotiate for something more representative of his overall body of work. Hopefully that's how it will play out. $18M?
$18mm has been my number and I’m sticking to it...though the over is looking tempting.
The other question is term. He may be playing himself into a fourth year more than a bigger starting number (or maybe a partial guarantee in the fourth that raises his average over three years).
(05-28-2021, 05:00 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]$18mm has been my number and I’m sticking to it...though the over is looking tempting.
The other question is term. He may be playing himself into a fourth year more than a bigger starting number (or maybe a partial guarantee in the fourth that raises his average over three years).
Interesting dilemma is also how you distribute his contract over years. Start low and increase year by year is good short term as you can add more to the roster, but will make his contract difficult to move in his age 31/32 seasons, especially if he regresses a bit. Start high and decrease is the other way around. I think this one is interesting if the plan is to operate over the cap.
(05-28-2021, 05:44 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting dilemma is also how you distribute his contract over years. Start low and increase year by year is good short term as you can add more to the roster, but will make his contract difficult to move in his age 31/32 seasons, especially if he regresses a bit. Start high and decrease is the other way around. I think this one is interesting if the plan is to operate over the cap.
I’m a pretty big fan of the decreasing value contract for aging players. I will say, THJ’s game isn’t based on as much athleticism though which can make him just as valuable towards the end of this contract.
Is it worth having THJ expire at the same time as KP?
May be a chance for cap space down the line. ?
This offseason is going to be massive and will determine how far the early career Luka teams go.
(05-28-2021, 07:59 PM)Aussiebballer Wrote: [ -> ]Is it worth having THJ expire at the same time as KP?
May be a chance for cap space down the line. ?
This offseason is going to be massive and will determine how far the early career Luka teams go.
That's actually a great idea. If they both expire the same year and we aren't hopelessly cap screwed at that point, might open up a max slot plus a second decent slot. Something like $35M + $20M.
(05-28-2021, 08:23 PM)embellisher Wrote: [ -> ]That's actually a great idea. If they both expire the same year and we aren't hopelessly cap screwed at that point, might open up a max slot plus a second decent slot. Something like $35M + $20M.
Somewhat hard to predict though, cause who knows if KP opts in or out of his final year. You could try and set up 2 years + a Team Option in year 3 to get around that, but that may be a hard sell to THJ.
All it takes is money. We’ll see. A deep playoff run and maybe. Otherwise, the Mavs will need to blow it up and probably can’t afford to have a salary like that on the books.
The Stein line is that the Mavs are confident in their ABILITY to resign THJ, not that they are confident that they will do it.
(06-01-2021, 04:15 PM)Benskix2 Wrote: [ -> ]The Stein line is that the Mavs are confident in their ABILITY to resign THJ, not that they are confident that they will do it.
lol, I think we can assume the latter tho
His game is not consistent enough and not good enough defender, to be able to start for a contending team. That being said, he is a great 6th man for a contender. He can definitely play.
(06-01-2021, 05:02 PM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]His game is not consistent enough and not good enough defender, to be able to start for a contending team. That being said, he is a great 6th man for a contender. He can definitely play.
I'd like him a lot better at 15/yr because I think that's a number that's movable if you need to trade him later on. If he gets like 20/yr its going to be tougher. To me Norman Powell is clearly better, more consistent all the way around and should be getting at least 20 mil/yr (likely from Portland). THJ would be in the "shooter" bucket of bubble starter that still every team needs bc every contender needs a volume 3 point shooter that can hit 40%. It's hard for me to picture him getting less than 15 at this point.
Also understand the psychology of guys taking a pay cut is really hard. THJ is in his prime making almost 19 mil. He is expecting his last big payday before he starts taking smaller deals. Most of these guys understand unless they are a star or highly production that once they get close to mid-30s they will take smaller deals.
For THJ to go from 19 to 15 is still tough. It obviously does happen but THJ is basically coming off a career year in efficiency. Is he still going to accept that he's "overpaid"? Would there be a team that makes Dallas have to get up to 20? It's hard to say. I definitely don't like him at 20 unless its a 1 yr deal.
The one thing I could see is similar to other contracts (like Barnes) you spend something like 19, 18, 17 (3 for 54) so that his contract gets better over time. Mavs will have more cap space available this year so its not really an issue to give him a bigger first year number. What you don't want is a bloated contract you can't move later on.
Well, Alec Burks should be a cheaper option.
And I remember a Luka tweet about Alec Burks just a few weeks ago.
So he likes him.
I just don't picture any scenario where THJ is not back on this team.
(06-01-2021, 05:02 PM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]His game is not consistent enough and not good enough defender, to be able to start for a contending team. That being said, he is a great 6th man for a contender. He can definitely play.
I think people greatly underestimate how many mediocre players start for "contending teams", much less players of THJ's caliber. Like am I supposed to believe Royce O'Neale is significantly better than THJ just because he's starting and playing 30+ minutes on the #1 seed in the West? He's not. He's just a role guy who fits in well with what the Jazz need from the position and their current roster construction. Generally most contenders have 2 stars, 1 high level starter, 1 middle of the road starter and 1 coattail rider role player in their starting 5.
(06-04-2021, 09:55 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]I think people greatly underestimate how many mediocre players start for "contending teams", much less players of THJ's caliber. Like am I supposed to believe Royce O'Neale is significantly better than THJ just because he's starting and playing 30+ minutes on the #1 seed in the West? He's not. He's just a role guy who fits in well with what the Jazz need from the position and their current roster construction. Generally most contenders have 2 stars, 1 high level starter, 1 middle of the road starter and 1 coattail rider role player in their starting 5.
All true. But we already have DFS and Kleber in O'Neale role. THJ is not even Bogdanovic as he scores less and can't create for himself. Conley is a legit quality two way player and Gobert/Mitchel are stars. This means basically two out of those three need to be upgraded.
(06-04-2021, 09:55 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]
I think people greatly underestimate how many mediocre players start for "contending teams", much less players of THJ's caliber. Like am I supposed to believe Royce O'Neale is significantly better than THJ just because he's starting and playing 30+ minutes on the #1 seed in the West? He's not. He's just a role guy who fits in well with what the Jazz need from the position and their current roster construction. Generally most contenders have 2 stars, 1 high level starter, 1 middle of the road starter and 1 coattail rider role player in their starting 5.
Yeah and how do we get that 2nd star, if we re-sign THJ? That effectively makes THJ our 2nd best player. Luka might be the best player in the world, but he is not that much better than Jokic, Booker, Curry, Lillard, LeBron, Mitchell to overcome that our 2nd best player would be like the 3rd sometimes even 4th best player on the other contenders. The cores we have to deal with for the next decade are Jokic/Murray/Porter/Gordon and Booker/Ayton/Bridges.
THJ can stay, but his contract must be super-tradeable next summer. If we pay THJ 70/4, we are f*****. If he wants more than 56/4, then he should prove it on the open market. Most team won´t make him a priority and those who like him will only have the MLE. So the Mavs can actually extract assets in a S&T.
That´s the kind of asset management other teams have used for years to build a war chest for the next disgruntled superstar.
If we turn Porzingis into Turner/Markkanen/Lamb, I´m good. then it´s time to work toward the 2nd star.
Doncic
Lavine
DFS
Markkanen
Turner
That´s a legit young title contender.