(06-17-2021, 08:54 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Great story for them. What they did was draft their core and overpay Bogdanovic and especially Gallo. Somehow turn huge Rondo overpay (another season on books) into Williams (expiring) and second round picks. That was just brilliant move or total Clippers panic move, really beyond understanding to me.
This is what bothers me. When we had the chance to overpay (2019), everyone was too expensive. Talking about common opinion on this board, not directed specifically at you, I don't remember your stance. When we had expiring contracts to trade, majority wouldn't use assets it took to get RoCo or similar. So here we are now, with last cap space chance probably heading into offseason where we will absolutely have to overpay a lot, because everyone knows we don't really have any other option. That is why I would be very careful penny pinching with THJ. Similar guys like Fournier or Powell will probably command contracts closer to 20 per than 15 per. Is Mavs team building really that much compromised if THJ costs 17 instead of 14 per? Would those 3 millions really prevent our "grand plan" from happening? Aren't there better ways to create those 3 millions of cap space, if they are that critical?
I agree THJ is not second best player on a contender and there is a limit to his price. But I think his price will be higher than 13 mil you suggest. If this is your limit, than you are basically building a team without THJ. Which is ok, I am just interested how that will look. I am not against KP trade, but lets assume he is untradeable for the purpose of this discussion. I am sure that is one of the possible scenarios.
Yep. Technically the Hawks "overpaid" for Gallo. They "overpaid" for Bodgon. They "overpaid" for Rondo (and then flipped him for another asset). They'll probably "overpay" for Collins when they give him a max. And ultimately who cares? The goal is to win basketball games by having more points than your opponent when the final buzzer sounds, not to have the most efficient production/salary ratio for 15 guys on the roster. Maybe Thybulle has a better production/cost ratio than Lou Williams, it doesn't mean anything when Lou Williams is scoring bucket buckets on him late in a critical game deep in the playoffs. Why is THJ worth $13 million when Buddy Hield is worth $20 million (other than people made up their minds 4 years ago that they don't like THJ)? We're not going to nickel and dime a way to a championship.
(06-17-2021, 09:16 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I would trade him for right return, either cap space or players. What is right return depends a lot on what you can actually get in free agency as I doubt we will get 30 mil worth of good players.
Example, we dump him for mostly cap space. It is nice to create plans with Holmes. But what if Charlotte throws 22 mil or similar at him? What do you do? Offer him 23 or go for FA alternative? Who is next best FA center this offseason? I don't really see many options. Even if we get Holmes - is this really a right way? Basically all non shooting players are a problem deep in playoffs. Even MVP two way stars like Giannis. We don't see a bunch of easy PnR dunks even with elite PnR player like Gobert playing against small ball lineups. KP just spreading the floor might prove more useful, if he could play defense. Turner might be better option than Holmes but is there a way to get him?
So in conclusion, I think trading KP that would lead to a better team will be very difficult this offseason.
I could see a new GM making a big splash by trading KP for cap space or mostly cap space (ie like some player on a much smaller contract). I for one would much rather get cap space back that filler players even if they are on 1 yr deals. I think it really depends on whether or not you have players you like that you can sign in place of KP lined up.
One team we don't talk about very much an example is Detroit. Detroit has some nice young players and Grant out of nowhere became a really good player. I think they can carve out 20 million in cap space if Joseph is cut. Would a team like that take on KP's deal and maybe even send you back a pick? Detroit is not afraid to go big (Blake Griffin trade).
For the Mavs new GM the KP situation is a sunk cost. If they get less than full value that is that last GM's problem. The new GM will want to improve the team very quickly. I don't think a reset year is in the books.
All that to say as low as KP's value appears at the moment I don't think its a given that he's untradable.
(06-17-2021, 09:25 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]Yep. Technically the Hawks "overpaid" for Gallo. They "overpaid" for Bodgon. They'll probably "overpay" for Collins when they give him a max. And ultimately who cares? The goal is to win basketball games by having more points score vs. points agaist when the final buzzer sounds, not have the most efficient production/salary ratio for 15 guys on the roster.
The fact that the Hawks are very close to the ECF has me thinking they will resign Collins and figure out cap problems a year from now.
(06-17-2021, 09:22 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Better basketball players increase the overall trade value too in case the on paper wins don’t equate to on court wins.
I don't agree with this part. Just look how Mavs succeded to crater everyones not named Luka value. With DFS and probably THJ being the only exception. Brunson value is good back up PG, rookies don't have value because no one saw them play, Kleber is useless in playoffs for two years in a row now, JRich had perhaps worse season than in Philly and was out of rotation. We don't even need to talk about Powell and KP.
I think one of the Mavs problems was that everyone not named Luka was just asked to do too much based on what he is capable. Exception KP, who miserably underperformed. THJ is not second best player, DFS is not third best one, Kleber can't be asked to guard elite wings or start at all. So what I hope - if you put just one good player above them in the pecking order, things might start falling into place. Lowry is the only one I would actually be pretty convinced he is up to the task. Conley doesn't seem a leader type to me, as someone who would lead the locker room and set things in order. Add a good 3-D wing for rMLE (Tucker, Batum type) which allows you flexibility in creating lineups in playoffs.
(06-17-2021, 09:25 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]We're not going to nickel and dime a way to a championship.
You don't need to tell me that, as this is exactly what I said
(06-17-2021, 09:15 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I don't understand this fascination you have with "starting"...
Do you remember Jason Terry as a starter? He was, of course. He came off the bench, but was the 2nd most important offensive player on every Mavs team he was a part of. He played super high minutes, always more than whoever "started" in his place. It was just a way of maximizing rotation patterns. I can easily see THJ coming off the bench like THAT, but he's not going to be a 20 minutes per night type of guy. I think ANY team would value him more highly than that.
Ask THJ what his fascination with saying he is a starter. I see THJ as a guy who can quickly question himself on the court. I think that is a big part of his consistency issues. Those guys don’t need to be written in stone as getting consistent minutes.
He can keep up that confidence for a longer period of time when he comes off the bench playing against lesser opponents, specialists like himself because he would be one of the best on the court most of the time. Once he’s gained that confidence throughout the game, he can bring it to the 4th quarter where he hopefully doesn’t lose it quickly.
Also, I believe it is highly debatable that JET was the second best player on the championship team. Other than that year he didn’t come off the bench for any highly successful Mavs team.
(06-17-2021, 09:16 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I would trade him for right return, either cap space or players. What is right return depends a lot on what you can actually get in free agency as I doubt we will get 30 mil worth of good players.
Example, we dump him for mostly cap space. It is nice to create plans with Holmes. But what if Charlotte throws 22 mil or similar at him? What do you do? Offer him 23 or go for FA alternative? Who is next best FA center this offseason? I don't really see many options. Even if we get Holmes - is this really a right way? Basically all non shooting players are a problem deep in playoffs. Even MVP two way stars like Giannis. We don't see a bunch of easy PnR dunks even with elite PnR player like Gobert playing against small ball lineups. KP just spreading the floor might prove more useful, if he could play defense. Turner might be better option than Holmes but is there a way to get him?
So in conclusion, I think trading KP that would lead to a better team will be very difficult this offseason.
If you trade KP for cap space, and are willing to walk away from THJ, that gives you the opportunity to money-whip any two of the ten best available FAs (several of whom are better than both those two). That makes you better off the bat. Then factor in possibility of trading Maxi and JRich for Collins in an SnT. If you keep DFS, there's your starting lineup, and you can fill in with the rMLE and vet min contracts.
(06-17-2021, 09:38 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]He can keep up that confidence for a longer period of time when he comes off the bench playing against lesser opponents, specialists like himself because he would be one of the best on the court most of the time. Once he’s gained that confidence throughout the game, he can bring it to the 4th quarter where he hopefully doesn’t lose it quickly.
I think on a very small sample of playoffs, THJ was great as long as he was guarded by Clippers 3rd or worse defender. As soon as Clippers realized THJ is our second guy and put Kawhi or George on him, it was just too much for him. I also have a problem seeing him as a starter, just not because of his offense but defense. Luka-THJ-KP lineup will never be good enough defensively, no matter who you put next to them. And they are not good enough offensively to win by offense.
But THJ shooting is elite, arguably top 10 in the league. And he has proven chemistry with Luka - he finds him and THJ delivers. This has value and shouldn't be just let go.
(06-17-2021, 09:25 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]Yep. Technically the Hawks "overpaid" for Gallo. They "overpaid" for Bodgon. They "overpaid" for Rondo (and then flipped him for another asset). They'll probably "overpay" for Collins when they give him a max. And ultimately who cares? The goal is to win basketball games by having more points than your opponent when the final buzzer sounds, not to have the most efficient production/salary ratio for 15 guys on the roster. Maybe Thybulle has a better production/cost ratio than Lou Williams, it doesn't mean anything when Lou Williams is scoring bucket buckets on him late in a critical game deep in the playoffs. Why is THJ worth $13 million when Buddy Hield is worth $20 million (other than people made up their minds 4 years ago that they don't like THJ)? We're not going to nickel and dime a way to a championship.
In this sense, then I would go a different route than resign THJ at all. He isn’t such a difference maker that we need to spend $20M or more on, so move on and get that guy if we have to overpay.
(06-17-2021, 09:43 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]If you trade KP for cap space
So you are so convinced in this plan you are willing to pay 2 FRP to dump KP if that is what it costs? And roll with Luka-Lowry-DFS-Kleber-Holmes? (let's keep Collins out of it). You are so sure this is a contender? I am not, not at all.
(06-17-2021, 09:46 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]In this sense, then I would go a different route than resign THJ at all. He isn’t such a difference maker that we need to spend $20M or more on, so move on and get that guy if we have to overpay.
a) What makes you can just call 1-800-DIFFERENCE-MAKER and order a couple of them out of a catalog just because you have the cap space for them? This sounds like 2021's version of Plan Power to me.
b) Everyone will be "overpaid" in free agency, because there is more demand for talent than supply available.
And yes, you need guys who score baskets. Everyone going on and one about THJ's defense ... Well Ben Simmons and Thybulle made 1st and 2nd team All Defensive NBA, and they're net liabilities deep in the playoffs because guys like Trae Young and Lou Williams can score bucket on them in the final 3 minutes and they can't return the favor.
(06-17-2021, 09:45 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]But THJ shooting is elite, arguably top 10 in the league. And he has proven chemistry with Luka - he finds him and THJ delivers. This has value and shouldn't be just let go.
I think if you use the money for a player that upgrades your defense big with a dip in offense, it is a win (thinking of Batum). Then when you take into account the money left over that you can use to upgrade elsewhere, it’s not about penny pinching anymore. The million dollar pennies are important when you overpay the right players. You don’t overpay a guy like THJ. You overpay a guy like Lowery.
(06-17-2021, 09:49 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]So you are so convinced in this plan you are willing to pay 2 FRP to dump KP if that is what it costs? And roll with Luka-Lowry-DFS-Kleber-Holmes? (let's keep Collins out of it). You are so sure this is a contender? I am not, not at all.
Don´t think his post mentioned both names. Overall I don´t think any move the Mavs could potentially make this offseason will be enough to turn them into legit contenders (healthy Lakers, Bucks, Nets, Clippers, Suns, Jazz). Unless Luka takes another step and really reaches prime MJ/LBJ level. One summer isn´t enough to fix the mistakes of the past three offseasons. Already pity the next GM if that is what Cuban expects him to do.
(06-17-2021, 09:17 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]Basically I am saying you sort of hollow out the middle. Go big on the guys you think are real difference makers but otherwise you should be trying to piece together value contracts for role guys.
The argument for this sounds eminently reasonable on paper.
However, I will note that this has been the team's strategy since the title. Spend big on major signings, and to the extent they don't show up, fill out the roster with guys who are cheap and/or on short contracts, so that they are easily gotten rid of if a better opportunity arises. I do not say you are wrong, just note that this is the philosophy that has led to underwhelming teams for ten years.
(06-17-2021, 09:56 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Don´t think his post mentioned both names.
He said any of the top 10 FA. I took what I think is best PG/SG available and best center available - both positions of needs if KP and THJ are gone. I am all ears which two free agents give a better combination.
My take is, it is really easy to throw around all the nice names we could sign. But they still have to come to us. And I don't believe changing two guys for different two guys based on what is available on FA market will make such a huge difference. You have to bring in three guys (like proposed Kleber and JRich for Collins SnT). Here is where it becomes difficult, or risky if you prefer.
All you good folks keep throwing out this "10 years" thing. "The results have been subpar for 10 years." Seems like that was a major component of the Cato article. But I have a little push back on that. Lumping the past 10 years into one block is a bit sloppy. Post championship was abysmal. Plan powder was an abomination of the highest order. Since Luka the team has been on an upward trajectory. It's not obvious to me that the past three years have been subpar. The team and Luka seem to be progressing along a learning curve.
KP has been subpar, and they missed on their search for a "next to Luka" guy two years in a row. Nonetheless they've been on an upward trajectory that fits the maturation of a young superstar.
But there's this: They got past up by the Suns and Hawks. And the Mavs drafted the better player than the Suns and Hawks. So that hurts.
And then here's the crux of the matter in my mind: The 2021/2022 season is the reckoning. The development of Luka says that they should be a top four seed and have some playoff success next season. They should be doing what the Hawks and Suns have managed to do this year. If they can't do that then their upward trajectory leveled off way too soon.
(06-17-2021, 09:56 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]The argument for this sounds eminently reasonable on paper.
However, I will note that this has been the team's strategy since the title. Spend big on major signings, and to the extent they don't show up, fill out the roster with guys who are cheap and/or on short contracts, so that they are easily gotten rid of if a better opportunity arises. I do not say you are wrong, just note that this is the philosophy that has led to underwhelming teams for ten years.
Don´t think we have to go back to the plan powder debate but the short contracts make all the difference. Players on one year deals cannot really lose/gain any trade value. Can be an advantage if teams make a bad decision. Can be a problem if they make a great decision.
Best recent examples. DFS and Curry. Great assets.Or... Aminu. One year deal. Walked away after a good season.
(06-17-2021, 09:54 AM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]a) What makes you can just call 1-800-DIFFERENCE-MAKER and order a couple of them out of a catalog just because you have the cap space for them? This sounds like 2021's version of Plan Power to me.
b) Everyone will be "overpaid" in free agency, because there is more demand for talent than supply available.
And yes, you need guys who score baskets. Everyone going on and one about THJ's defense ... Well Ben Simmons and Thybulle made 1st and 2nd team All Defensive NBA, and they're net liabilities deep in the playoffs because guys like Trae Young and Lou Williams can score bucket on them in the final 3 minutes and they can't return the favor.
a) I guess you thought I said this. I didn’t.
b) Absolutely false. There are many value contracts to be had every year.
Didn’t say you don’t need guys who score baskets. What names have I discussed that can’t do so? That argument also flies in the face of keeping DFS too (which I myself am not sold on as a absolute).
The names you came up with are more or less more DFS types (one better than him, the other less or on par with him). Going extreme with those names has little to do with what we’re talking about here.
(06-17-2021, 10:07 AM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]And the Mavs drafted the better player than the Suns and Hawks. So that hurts.
Difference is just in drafted. Hawks drafted most of their team in several losing years. Phoenix did the same, even failed extremely badly on a couple of top picks along the way (Zizic, Chriss, Jackson, even Smith from this season looks like big mistake), but they still managed to draft Bridges, Booker, Johnson and Ayton.
Should Mavs spend more years tanking? I am not sure. Should Mavs be more brave in the last two seasons adding talent around Luka instead of waiting for that golden chance? I would say yes. Although they do have time to correct it. I don't think a total rebuild of the team is needed. But new management should get a chance to clean up a couple of mistakes of the past.
(06-17-2021, 10:09 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Best recent examples. DFS and Curry. Great assets.
I don't agree about great assets part. Nice contracts to build around. All Curry got us was JRich - player with a reputation of being a solid starter. No one will trade their star for DFS/Curry. And for every good value contract we have a bad value contract, stuff that didn't work out the way we thought - Wright, Powell, JRich. Kleber is probably neutral value at this point.