MavsBoard

(06-28-2022, 06:08 PM)JamesConway912 Wrote: [ -> ]So it looks like we’re offering in the low $20M range annually.

I bet they'd prefer not even to offer that much. 

I think what the "tea leaves" are telling us is that NY wants Brunson badly enough to offer $25 million per, and Cuban just can't stomach it. 

You can argue that he's not worth it, especially compounded by tax. BUT, we knew this was a possibility. It's the idea that he's going to walk away for nothing that I can't stand.

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(06-28-2022, 06:11 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]Oh don´t worry. They´ll sign Dragic to the full TP-MLE.

I honestly don't think so. 

If they do, that will make this even worse. But, I feel like this is all finance-driven, and I think they've determined Dragic is the "cheap" route. 

We'll see.

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(06-28-2022, 06:08 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]I think Goran is good.   Not sure he has it in him to be a 25 minute a game player for a full season.  I am depressed.

Cheer up. Maybe if they use the full TP MLE the player comes with a complementary time machine.

(06-28-2022, 05:48 PM)JamesConway912 Wrote: [ -> ]There won’t be a SnT:

https://twitter.com/bobbymarks42/status/...41825?s=21&t=mnsIqFsJjO5DVqvtJUfg4Q

At least none where we get something of value. NY has all the leverage.

This math has been available on this board since the night of the draft.  The S&T question, as many have said, is basically whether it will cost NY something to move on from Burks or Noel.  If they have to pay a third team to take one of them, then Dallas should expect the same offer.

BTW, you can get pretty close to the numbers needed for $100mm by simply moving Reddish.  I think NY paid a first for Reddish, so I doubt a pick gets attached to now move Reddish a few months later.

(06-28-2022, 06:14 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]This math has been available on this board since the night of the draft.  The S&T question, as many have said, is basically whether it will cost NY something to move on from Burks or Noel.  If they have to pay a third team to take one of them, then Dallas should expect the same offer.

Sure, assuming Dallas thinks it's worth taking back salary in the deal.

(06-28-2022, 05:59 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Probably Dragic will get part of the tax MLE and Hardy will get the rest to give him a similar deal as Brunson or Terry.   

This prediction makes good sense if Hardy makes the 15 man roster.  Maybe Dragic takes the minimum, but from the start, I've thought it would take more.  Would love to be surprised that he took the minimum.

What a lot of people didn't notice because of his raw scoring numbers and those two games against Utah is that Brunson played pretty poorly next to Luka in the playoffs. 

From Utah game 4 onward: 19.5 points and 3.3 assists per game on a dreadful eFG% of 49.4% while posting a defensive rating that was worse than everybody on the team except for Marquese Chriss and Boban who barely played.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanc...DEF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Playoffs&TeamID=1610612742&DateFrom=4%2F22%2F2022&DateTo=7%2F1%2F2022

Basically he was an inefficient chucker who provided nothing else next to Luka. I actually think the current team has more scoring punch right now without Brunson than that team did with Brunson with THJ returning and the addition of Wood. The defense is still going to need some help though

(06-28-2022, 05:33 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]The big deal is that they should've traded him at the deadline if they didn't want to pay what it would take to keep him.

(06-28-2022, 06:10 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]What do you imagine the haul would have been for a UFA that has deep ties to the Knicks?

The UFA status alone would have devalued him severely.  Yes, the acquiring team would have had Bird rights and still would have been subject to losing him.

They definitely do not get equal value in return given what JB gave the Mavs in a WCF playoff run. At least we have the memories; I think we can all agree it's been the most fun season since 2011. 

Do the Mavs have another WCF run in the near future? Or better? No cap space next summer nor the summer after that. And Mavs still have a Christian Wood situation to figure out.

(06-28-2022, 06:17 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe Dragic takes the minimum, but from the start, I've thought it would take more.

I would be shocked if he had to take the minimum. There might be a point where that's all he's offered, but in this case there are rumors that he's already decided to sign here. You don't do that for the minimum until you confirm that's all you can get. 

The only question left is: will it be part the MLE (Burke style) or all of it.

(06-28-2022, 06:16 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Sure, assuming Dallas thinks it's worth taking back salary in the deal.

It is a reasonable question.  Too lazy to look up the tax, but taking back a $10mm salary and using the TP MLE when you are already at/over the apron is an expensive proposition.  With that said, getting back our 2023 has an out sized value from a team building perspective.

(06-28-2022, 06:10 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]What do you imagine the haul would have been for a UFA that has deep ties to the Knicks?

The UFA status alone would have devalued him severely.  Yes, the acquiring team would have had Bird rights and still would have been subject to losing him.

At the very least, I bet they could've cherry picked a better deal from the Knicks. 

Topin and a 1st at the deadline? I bet that would've flown.

(06-28-2022, 05:33 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]The big deal is that they should've traded him at the deadline if they didn't want to pay what it would take to keep him.

Should have extended him.  Should have traded him for assets.  The mistake now would be to compound those errors with another.  

I'll admit my bias, I've never been the biggest JB fan.  He did open my eyes this season and I think he has some elite qualities.  I think those qualities are fairly priced around the $20M range.  $25M is an overpay I might swallow but beyond that is just crazy.

I view the Luka/JB tandem as something similar to Dame/CJ, and in my mind, that doesn't get you a championship.  Sure you'd probably rather have Luka than Dame, but I think I'd rather have CJ than JB even if I understand arguments for the counter.  

And I totally get the mindset of lose him for nothing, but at some point his contract number is too large to be a positive asset.  Further, he controls his destiny so he might shun the Mavericks even if they offer him the same contract (lack of state income tax) or a little better.

How the MBT handled JB is probably an F, but if he gets north of $125M, I wouldn't grade the MBT too harshly for having a number they want to stick to and letting him be a Knick.

(06-28-2022, 06:23 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]How the MBT handled JB is probably an F, but if he gets north of $125M, I wouldn't grade the MBT too harshly for having a number they want to stick to and letting him be a Knick.

I would agree in most situations, it's just particularly difficult to stomach coming off of a WCF with no real way of doing anything about the hole. 

They're basically just going to let their second best player walk away and then try to sell us on the idea that they'll be better next season. 

Spoiler alert: very unlikely.

(04-19-2022, 07:00 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]It is amazing how often we are on the same waive length (I heard this before reading it on the board and thought the same thing).  But, as Omahen pointed out.  They have cap room.

Not sure I believe the rumor, but it is another leverage point.  I've long thought the threat of a player going somewhere else for cap space is almost as valuable as having cap space yourself.  Yeah, a team like NY can reduce salary via trade with a little work and sign JB outright.  But it would be much better for them to save the assets and make a deal with Dallas.  Why in the world would Dallas agree?  because NY's something is better than Indy or Detroit's nothing.  

Let's hope the vibes here are immaculate when the discussions actually start.

Nailed it.

(06-28-2022, 06:21 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]At the very least, I bet they could've cherry picked a better deal from the Knicks. 

Topin and a 1st at the deadline? I bet that would've flown.

OK, imagine for a second you are a NY fan.  Hey KillerKnicksFan.  How about you give me your most recent lottery pick AND a future first for a UFA PG that you have no ability to keep if he wants to walk and who you might get for free in 4 1/2 months anyway.  Deal?

I wonder if Cuban could swallow his pride enough to take Noel back. He actually might be useful on this roster, I'd be aiming to get our pick back too but I'm not sure if we have enough leverage

Oh btw guess who ended up drafting Mavs target Trevon Keels. Just saying.

Seriously the Knicks have

Brunson/Rose/Burks/McBride
Fournier/Grimes/Quickley/Keels
Barrett/Reddish/

They have between 4-7 shooting guards. Surely the Mavs can acquire one of them. If they can get Reddish, Noel or Randle on top, that´s a pretty good deal. Just don´t take Fournier, unless they give us our pick back.

(06-28-2022, 06:34 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]OK, imagine for a second you are a NY fan.  Hey KillerKnicksFan.  How about you give me your most recent lottery pick AND a future first for a UFA PG that you have no ability to keep if he wants to walk and who you might get for free in 4 1/2 months anyway.  Deal?

The fans aren't the ones you're negotiating with, though. THEY don't want Brunson NOW. 

The front office does, and they DID. And clearly, they value him a ton, right? 

You're the one assuming they're about to get their '23 pick back. They'll have to use it to clear space to sign him anyway, right? 

So, for Topin and that '23, my guess is they'd have foreseen that they could've A) avoided spending the other picks they've already had to this summer to get to this point and B) could've offered him that 5th year. 

It's not "trading for a prospective UFA" in the same, risky way if there's interest on both sides to re-sign (like with Porzingis coming here). Clearly, there was interest between Brunson and NY, for all of the same reasons the mutual interest exists now. 

Sorry, I don't agree. 

I think the only valid argument against trading him at the last deadline, knowing what we know now, is that it probably would've deprived us of this past playoff success. That's not nothing...it's worth something for the entire franchise and the rest of the roster to have gone through that, for sure.

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(06-28-2022, 06:35 PM)MrGoat Wrote: [ -> ]I wonder if Cuban could swallow his pride enough to take Noel back. He actually might be useful on this roster, I'd be aiming to get our pick back too but I'm not sure if we have enough leverage

Sure he could. They signed DAJ the second time, right? 

The questions are:

1) do they think Noel is needed here? Maybe, maybe not. 

2) If they do think he fills a need, do they want to pay his salary and the tax that will come with it? I strongly suspect "no." But, I don't think it will be about pride.

(06-28-2022, 06:25 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I would agree in most situations, it's just particularly difficult to stomach coming off of a WCF with no real way of doing anything about the hole. 

They're basically just going to let their second best player walk away and then try to sell us on the idea that they'll be better next season. 

Spoiler alert: very unlikely.

It sucks.  Like I said, I've come around a lot on JB.  But may walk even if the Mavs have a better offer on the table.  MBT really fucked up how they handled him and it's compounded by a ton of other errors along the way.  It feels like we are never going to be free of the KP debacle.  

I'm not saying the Mavs are the right organization for it, in fact Cuban is the direct opposite, but sometimes you need to take a step back to move forward.  I'm sure we can money whip JB to stay (5yrs $150M) but I think he becomes a negative asset at that point.  I know everyone wants to get better, but grossly overpaying your second best player because he's your second best player is probably foolish in the long run.  It's why I didn't want to resign THJ.  The thought was "what are you going to replace his production with?".  Then we resigned him.  Then he got hurt.  And the team didn't miss a beat.  And I'm not saying JB is the exact same, he'll certainly be missed but I think you can approximate what he brings to the table with lesser players.  Can that MBT land those players?  Great question.

(06-28-2022, 06:50 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/Mavs_FFL/status/1419695882467938305

(06-28-2022, 06:50 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/Mavs_FFL/status/1419695882467938305