All-Star break update:
Brunson has started 40 games, almost half a season's worth, where he averages 18 ppg, 6 apg, and 4 rpg. Who else in the NBA are maintaining those stats as a starter?
Only 16 players in the entire NBA fit those numbers: Giannis, LeBron, Luka, Morant, Jokic, Steph, Beal, Harden, Butler, VanVleet, LaMelo, Dejounte, Jrue, Westbrook, and Brunson. As of now, the only one without an all-star game appearance is JB.
If you factor Brunson's elite efficiency as a starter shooting 50% from the field and 40% from 3PT range as starter, then only Jrue matches him.
All in all, Brunson is putting up an all-star caliber season right before our eyes. Not saying he ever makes a team but stranger things have happened, I think there is a season 4 coming out this May on Netflix.
It's wild how similar 6' 1" Brunson compares to 6' 0" Kyle Lowry in their first full year starting.
Lowry in year 5 at age 24 playing for Houston in 2010-2011:
75 G / 34.2 MPG / 13.5 PPG / 6.7 AST / 4 RBS / 46% 2PT / 37.6% 3PT / 50.6% eFG / 17.5 PER / 5.6 WS / 1.8 DWS
Brunson in year 4 at age 25:
61 G / 32.2 MPG / 16.1 PPG / 5.3 AST / 3.7 RBS / 54% 2PT / 37.8 3PT / 54.7% eFG / 17.3 PER / 5.9 WS / 2.2 DWS
Lowry, whom a lot of people wanted this past off-season, who recently signed 3/85M at age 35 (~28M/year) and has missed what will be his 15th game tonight.
Just this year, Per 36 comparison isn't as close... JB is the superior player.
Brunson: 18 PPG / 6 AST / 4 RBS / 54.7% eFG / 57.8% TS / 17.3 PER / 5.9 WS / 2.2 DWS / 105.5 DefRtg
K Lowry: 14 PPG / 8 AST / 5 RBS / 52.9% eFG/ 57.6% TS / 14.9 PER / 4.6 WS / 2.1 DWS / 102.9 DefRtg
The question i have... If Brunson is a young Lowry.... how much would you pay him? Would you still want to SnT him? If you wanted Lowry a few months ago... you got him... the current better version.... in Brunson.
(03-02-2022, 05:02 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]If you wanted Lowry a few months ago... you got him... the current better version.... in Brunson.
Lowry is a pretty good comp, but I don't think Brunson is quite there yet. Still, I would've laughed at this comparison over the summer, so at this point I wouldn't put anything past this kid. He's pretty special.
What he's missing that Lowry has is an insane amount of toughness, imo. That's pretty ironic considering many of us would've listed Brunson's intangibles as chief among his assets a few months ago. It's pretty easy to envision him getting Lowry-like swagger and confidence as he gets older. Really good comp.
(03-02-2022, 05:15 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Lowry is a pretty good comp, but I don't think Brunson is quite there yet. Still, I would've laughed at this comparison over the summer, so at this point I wouldn't put anything past this kid. He's pretty special.
What he's missing that Lowry has is an insane amount of toughness, imo. That's pretty ironic considering many of us would've listed Brunson's intangibles as chief among his assets a few months ago. It's pretty easy to envision him getting Lowry-like swagger and confidence as he gets older. Really good comp.
I agree that Brunson is not quite to the level of Lowry's prime. But Brunson is arguably better than Lowry was at similar timelines and unarguably better than Lowry is this year. As for toughness, I know what you mean and I agree to an extent. BUT how many times has JB went down (last night - ankle) and you thought he was done for the night or would be out an extended time. I would argue that toughness, character, and will to win are some of Jalen's more noteworthy traits - that will only get better as he too enters his prime.
(03-02-2022, 05:39 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]BUT how many times has JB went down (last night - ankle) and you thought he was done for the night or would be out an extended time. I would argue that toughness, character, and will to win are some of Jalen's more noteworthy traits - that will only get better as he too enters his prime.
Touché. I didn't articulate my point very well. Yeah, Brunson is tough as nails in the way you're using the word (which is probably a better way than how I intended). When I said "tough" what I meant was the whole "f you, we're not losing, no matter what" mentality that Lowry has. Jordan was the most extreme example of this that I've seen, but there have been other players over the years who display a less extreme version of that mindset. I think Lowry is pretty far ahead of Brunson there, even to this day.
But, as I said, I can easily envision Brunson growing into that form. He had it at the college level, for sure.
(03-02-2022, 05:02 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]Lowry
I think you underestimate the leadership and respect part of what Lowry brings on the table. Lowry is a guy you expect to cruise through regular season and really up his play in the playoffs. I don't think you can compare him with Brunson based on regular season stats.
(03-02-2022, 08:08 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think you underestimate the leadership and respect part of what Lowry brings on the table. Lowry is a guy you expect to cruise through regular season and really up his play in the playoffs. I don't think you can compare him with Brunson based on regular season stats.
I don’t think this Mavs team lacks leadership. They have been plagued by lack of talent. I’m simply pointing out that Brunson IS better than Lowry on the court, talent alone this year. It’s an oversimplification of the “whole”, just to point out that maybe some of us are taking Brunson for granted and we actually have a Lowry on our team already…. That WANTS to be here - unlike any other “star”
(03-02-2022, 08:25 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t think this Mavs team lacks leadership.
I think they do, badly. Team leader is a (now) 23 year old who is just starting to figure things out.
(03-02-2022, 08:25 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]I’m simply pointing out that Brunson IS better than Lowry on the court, talent alone this year.
In the regular season.
(03-02-2022, 08:25 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]just to point out that maybe some of us are taking Brunson for granted and we actually have a Lowry on our team already….
Lets wait for the playoffs for this assesment. I am not claiming he will be bad, but I am also not sure if he can step up his game in the playoffs. I am expecting Lowry will do that, because he has proven it many times before. Brunson didn't. Yet.
(03-02-2022, 08:31 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I think they do, badly. Team leader is a (now) 23 year old who is just starting to figure things out.
In the regular season.
Lets wait for the playoffs for this assesment. I am not claiming he will be bad, but I am also not sure if he can step up his game in the playoffs. I am expecting Lowry will do that, because he has proven it many times before. Brunson didn't. Yet.
I’m simply making a statistical comparison of two players. One of which is on the Mavs roster and one whom a lot of Mavs fans wanted to add this year, but like many before him - chose a different team. In making the comparison I’m also stressing to some, maybe yourself, that we can get caught up in the shiny new thing or what we don’t have - that we don’t always appreciate what we do have.
I think Brunson is a winning piece on a winning team and statistically he resembles a young Lowry. The things that have been pointed out, that can’t be measured, intangibles for both players, in their respective careers will be different. One is a proven 35 year old past his prime, the other is the younger version of that player.
(03-02-2022, 05:02 PM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]It's wild how similar 6' 1" Brunson compares to 6' 0" Kyle Lowry in their first full year starting.
Lowry in year 5 at age 24 playing for Houston in 2010-2011:
75 G / 34.2 MPG / 13.5 PPG / 6.7 AST / 4 RBS / 46% 2PT / 37.6% 3PT / 50.6% eFG / 17.5 PER / 5.6 WS / 1.8 DWS
Brunson in year 4 at age 25:
61 G / 32.2 MPG / 16.1 PPG / 5.3 AST / 3.7 RBS / 54% 2PT / 37.8 3PT / 54.7% eFG / 17.3 PER / 5.9 WS / 2.2 DWS
Lowry, whom a lot of people wanted this past off-season, who recently signed 3/85M at age 35 (~28M/year) and has missed what will be his 15th game tonight.
Just this year, Per 36 comparison isn't as close... JB is the superior player.
Brunson: 18 PPG / 6 AST / 4 RBS / 54.7% eFG / 57.8% TS / 17.3 PER / 5.9 WS / 2.2 DWS / 105.5 DefRtg
K Lowry: 14 PPG / 8 AST / 5 RBS / 52.9% eFG/ 57.6% TS / 14.9 PER / 4.6 WS / 2.1 DWS / 102.9 DefRtg
The question i have... If Brunson is a young Lowry.... how much would you pay him? Would you still want to SnT him? If you wanted Lowry a few months ago... you got him... the current better version.... in Brunson.
I think Lowry is a good comp on the offensive side of the ball. Lowry continued to improve and didn't peak until his late 20s. It would be great if Brunson followed the same footsteps.
But they are not in the same league defensively. Lowry is a near elite perimeter defender and Brunson is below average. This is my issue when folks compare Brunson to Lowry or VanVleet. As well as he is progressing on offense, he will never be close to those guys defensively.
(03-02-2022, 10:23 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]But they are not in the same league defensively. Lowry is a near elite perimeter defender and Brunson is below average. This is my issue when folks compare Brunson to Lowry or VanVleet. As well as he is progressing on offense, he will never be close to those guys defensively.
You're probably right but the numbers actually say that Brunson is pretty good defensively. Maybe it's just that we watch him every night and tend to point out the missed plays or the times he unperformed due to being a human and not a robot?
Looking at NBA.com the NBA average DRTG is 110.6
Lowry career 105.4 DefRtg
Lowry first 4 years: 105 DefRtg
Brunson career 108.2 DefRtg
Lowry Defensive Win Shares first 4 years: 1.3 / 1.8 / 1.4 / 1.8
Brunson Defensive Win Shares first 4 years: 1.0 / 0.6 / 1.1 / 2.2
(03-03-2022, 08:59 AM)Smitty Wrote: [ -> ]You're probably right but the numbers actually say that Brunson is pretty good defensively. Maybe it's just that we watch him every night and tend to point out the missed plays or the times he unperformed due to being a human and not a robot?
Looking at two different sites..
Lowry career 107.8 DefRtg
Lowry first 4 years: 108.8 DefRtg
Brunson career 113.5 DeftRtg
Lowry career 104.6 DefRtg
Lowry first 4 years: 101.8 DefRtg
Brunson career 108.2 DefRtg
Lowry Defensive Win Shares first 4 years: 0.2 / 1.3 / 1.8 / 1.4
Brunson Defensive Win Shares first 4 years: 1.0 / 0.6 / 1.1 / 2.2
DefRtg means lower is better?
I think Def is hard to measure in stats, is it's always a team stat.
I don't get the feeling JB is a negative in Kidds Defense and he is a overall plus on the court.
I like the vV comp better. Lowry has some burst JB doesn't have.
(03-03-2022, 11:22 AM)Mapka Wrote: [ -> ]DefRtg means lower is better?
I think Def is hard to measure in stats, is it's always a team stat.
I don't get the feeling JB is a negative in Kidds Defense and he is a overall plus on the court.
I like the vV comp better. Lowry has some burst JB doesn't have.
I'm not saying Jalen is as good as Lowry defensively, and I agree that it's difficult to measure with stats. It can be argued that Jalen is slightly better offensively than Lowry was in his first 4 years and is slightly worse defensively. Lowry is proven and past his prime of course - but if we squint even a little, I don't find it difficult to see how closely they compare. Like with any comp, it's never a perfect 1 for 1 example.
While we look for reasons the KP trade was a success, JB becoming the second option on offense might be the biggest benefit. At least in the regular season so far.
JB riding the bench in crunch time because SD is needed on the court....
(03-03-2022, 10:52 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]JB riding the bench in crunch time because SD is needed on the court....
And DFS, Bullock and Powell were needed defensively.
(03-03-2022, 10:54 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]And DFS, Bullock and Powell were needed defensively.
I just continue to ride the train that JB is the expendable one in all this. He is the best path to upgrading the roster IMO. I love him and he is great, but I don't think he ultimately fits the vision of how they want to construct a roster around Luka. Too small ultimately.
(03-03-2022, 10:55 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]He is the best path to upgrading the roster IMO.
Only way he possibly returns something significant is if we sign him and keep playing him like we are next season (and he has at least a decent playoff showing). Otherwise, there's not much in the way of big value to gleen from him in SnT. New contract that is on par with his on court play? Sure.
(03-03-2022, 10:52 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]JB riding the bench in crunch time because SD is needed on the court....
He had a bad start to the fourth. It'll happen when (not if) SD does that too. Kidd don't play around in the 4th.
Play the hot hand. I am fine with that. Jalen will finish most games. Dinwiddie played excellent when he subbed in for Jalen. He deserved to finish. DFS and Bullock were needed out there as well.