(02-07-2022, 06:03 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Feel like we will have the same issues with him that we had with THJ. He is a better shooter, but even worse defender. Like THJ, I don't really think he fits what Kidd is trying to do here.
I feel like the statement "better shooter" vastly understates just how much of a different league Hield is as a shooter compared to THJ. If anything Hield will be bringing back what we had with Seth, and even then he's a better volume 3pt shooter.
Again the only player that has exceeded Hield at 3pt shooting since he's come into the league when both volume and efficiency are taken into account is Steph Curry. Lillard is close as well.
That kind of shooting is enough to forego some defense. Especially in the playoffs. He's having a down year this year by his standards, but I think that's him being mentally checked out of SAC at this point.
(02-07-2022, 06:28 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I feel like the statement "better shooter" vastly understates just how much of a different league Hield is as a shooter compared to THJ. If anything Hield will be bringing back what we had with Seth, and even then he's a better volume 3pt shooter.
Again the only player that has exceeded Hield at 3pt shooting since he's come into the league when both volume and efficiency are taken into account is Steph Curry. Lillard is close as well.
That kind of shooting is enough to forego some defense. Especially in the playoffs. He's having a down year this year by his standards, but I think that's him being mentally checked out of SAC at this point.
The last couple of years they have not really looked that different. Its been three seasons since he has had a truly dominate year.
I realize he shoots a really high volume, but his offensive output is in Timmy's ballpark and not even close to Steph and Lillard (based on scoring per game and advanced on/off impact like EPM and Lebron). He is you classic 6th man (he is not even starting for Sacto) just like THJ, and I am not interested in paying 23 mil for that.
Hollinger had an interesting fake trade in his latest article. Fournier for Goran. No draft picks exchanged. Knicks get a mulligan and free up cap room. Fournier gives the Raptors depth they need.
I don't think the Raptors do this though. They appear to be in the market for big man. Although maybe they hope to rehab Fournier and re-sell him in a year instead of losing the Dragic salary for nothing?
For the Knicks, maybe they play 3D chess. Release Dragic and hope he signs with Dallas. Maybe Jalen doesn't like sharing some minutes with Goran. Ok, probably not, but it just hasn't felt like Fournier has fit in well with the Knicks.
He also talks Covington to the Jazz as a fake trade. Ingles plus picks. Something that caught my attention is he mentioned if Utah can put enough draft equity together. Says Utah have traded all their second round picks and you wouldn't trade a first for Covington. so it appears he may not be very expensive to get.
(02-07-2022, 08:06 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]The last couple of years they have not really looked that different. Its been three seasons since he has had a truly dominate year.
I realize he shoots a really high volume, but his offensive output is in Timmy's ballpark and not even close to Steph and Lillard (based on scoring per game and advanced on/off impact like EPM and Lebron). He is you classic 6th man (he is not even starting for Sacto) just like THJ, and I am not interested in paying 23 mil for that.
Lets ignore this year because it's still going on, but THJ is injured so it's not a fair comparison of the two.
Buddy in the last 3 years has ranked 4th, 2nd, and 2nd, in 3pt field goals made. He's made 831 threes in that time. Steph Curry has made 702. James Harden 798.
Now Steph was injured for one of those years with a broken wrist, so he'd undoubtedly be first. But still, Buddy has made the most amount of threes in the entire league the last 3 years. If you add this year Buddy still is ahead of Steph by about 100 threes.
Comparing him to THJ's best 3 years of his career under Carlisle, THJ has made 573 threes the last 3 years. They're not in the same stratosphere of shooting.
In both of THJ's best shooting seasons where he made 204, and 207 threes respectively (39.8%, 39.1%), Buddy still exceeds him by an average of 71 threes total each year (271, 282, [39.4%, 39.1%]). Extrapolating the results and how much space Luka created for Seth, I think putting the 2nd best 3pt shooter in the entire league next to Luka will only be a good thing, defense be damned.
(02-07-2022, 06:28 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I feel like the statement "better shooter" vastly understates just how much of a different league Hield is as a shooter compared to THJ. If anything Hield will be bringing back what we had with Seth, and even then he's a better volume 3pt shooter.
Again the only player that has exceeded Hield at 3pt shooting since he's come into the league when both volume and efficiency are taken into account is Steph Curry. Lillard is close as well.
That kind of shooting is enough to forego some defense. Especially in the playoffs. He's having a down year this year by his standards, but I think that's him being mentally checked out of SAC at this point.
He sure can, Buddy Hield will be a madman playing with Luka.
If we could somehow come out of the trade deadline with Hield, Barnes, Holmes, and Dragic, that is a major win.
His main issue is that he is not playing with a Point Guard like Luka that will give him high percentage catch and shoot opportunities.
(02-07-2022, 10:26 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Lets ignore this year because it's still going on, but THJ is injured so it's not a fair comparison of the two.
Buddy in the last 3 years has ranked 4th, 2nd, and 2nd, in 3pt field goals made. He's made 831 threes in that time. Steph Curry has made 702. James Harden 798.
Now Steph was injured for one of those years with a broken wrist, so he'd undoubtedly be first. But still, Buddy has made the most amount of threes in the entire league the last 3 years. If you add this year Buddy still is ahead of Steph by about 100 threes.
Comparing him to THJ's best 3 years of his career under Carlisle, THJ has made 573 threes the last 3 years. They're not in the same stratosphere of shooting.
In both of THJ's best shooting seasons where he made 204, and 207 threes respectively (39.8%, 39.1%), Buddy still exceeds him by an average of 71 threes total each year (271, 282, [39.4%, 39.1%]). Extrapolating the results and how much space Luka created for Seth, I think putting the 2nd best 3pt shooter in the entire league next to Luka will only be a good thing, defense be damned.
Total number of 3s is a strange way to assess value. Based on that, THJ is a way better shooter than Seth Curry.
What we are really concerned about is their offensive impact on the court, right? Looking at several advanced metrics over the last two years they are simply not that different:
THJ 2020 2021 Hield 2020 2021
OBPM 1.2 2.0 2.5 1.0 (Best boxscore advanced stat)
Lebron 1.2 .9 1.4 1.7 (top on/off advanced stat)
EMP 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.8 (top on/off advanced stat)
Darko .7 .6 (best estimator, only looks at right now)
The defensive numbers for the two are also similar (all negative) with Hield being worse.
For reference, Curry and Lillard are in the 5-8 range. Completely different ballpark.
(02-07-2022, 09:31 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Hollinger had an interesting fake trade in his latest article. Fournier for Goran. No draft picks exchanged. Knicks get a mulligan and free up cap room. Fournier gives the Raptors depth they need.
I don't think the Raptors do this though. They appear to be in the market for big man. Although maybe they hope to rehab Fournier and re-sell him in a year instead of losing the Dragic salary for nothing?
For the Knicks, maybe they play 3D chess. Release Dragic and hope he signs with Dallas. Maybe Jalen doesn't like sharing some minutes with Goran. Ok, probably not, but it just hasn't felt like Fournier has fit in well with the Knicks.
The scary thing about that 3D chess is moving Fournier for an expiring is enough to get NY the space needed to sign Brunson in the summer. We need NY to be a buyer (McCollom?), not a seller.
(02-07-2022, 11:21 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Total number of 3s is a strange way to assess value. Based on that, THJ is a way better shooter than Seth Curry.
I'm mostly on your side of this debate (I think THJ and Hield are in the same league as shooters), but I'll chime in to say that when you listen to guys like Redick and Duncan Robinson talk about shooting, it's surprising how focused they are on how difficult it is to get enough shots off. The way the league is guarding the 3 point line these days, it takes an insane amount of effort for those pro shooters (not 3&D guys, but those who are literally on the court to find or create 8-10 threes per game) to constantly relocate and use screens to clear themselves up for clean looks. And, you need to be able to get the shot off ridiculously quickly after the catch.
The Mavericks used to be focused on getting Hardaway as many looks as possible, and he was really coming along as that "run around screens off ball" type of shooter. This year, not so much. It's not even that he stopped hitting them, it's that they don't run that kind of offensive action anymore. The threes he has been bricking all year have been just plain-Jane catch and shoot opps, mostly.
I said all that to say: if the Mavs weren't running that stuff for the shooter they
have anymore, what makes us think they'd value someone else who does the same thing (Hield, Robinson, Huerter, etc) at the trade deadline? I don't think they're looking at things like that, personally. It's not their style anymore.
Also, Hield has been on the trade market for (no joke) 3 years now. Doesn't really seem like anyone values him enough to pull the trigger. Maybe it's the defense, but idk...I have a feeling he's got a problem personality. Just like Schroeder, I just don't think there's much point to figuring out ways to get him here. Doesn't seem like the Mavs are interested.
This video should be cued up to the part of the recent Redick/Paul convo about shooting. There are hours and hours of this type of point being made on JJ's podcast, but I saw this one recently so it was at the top of my memory. Notice the distinction made between stationary catch-and-shoot guys and people who have to sprint around screens, change directions, jump-stop into their shooting motion, whatever. The Mavericks were building Hardaway into one of those guys (successfully) and the new staff just didn't make it a priority to continue using him that way...which is fine, but makes it more puzzling that they re-signed him, imo.
https://youtu.be/F2gwcLg9fc4?t=317
(02-07-2022, 11:33 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Also, Hield has been on the trade market for (no joke) 3 years now. Doesn't really seem like anyone values him enough to pull the trigger. Maybe it's the defense, but idk...I have a feeling he's got a problem personality. Just like Schroeder, I just don't think there's much point to figuring out ways to get him here. Doesn't seem like the Mavs are interested.
Slight counters:
1.) He should be a Laker.
2.) I don't really trust personality quirks and the Sacramento organization. We've certainly haven't heard grumblings about Buddy like we did with Tyreke and DeMarcus. I don't think the Schroeder comparison is fair.
Buddy's a better player than THJ but I don't think they are all that far apart.
(02-07-2022, 11:56 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]1.) He should be a Laker.
2.) I don't really trust personality quirks and the Sacramento organization. We've certainly haven't heard grumblings about Buddy like we did with Tyreke and DeMarcus. I don't think the Schroeder comparison is fair.
I agree with #1, but isn't it interesting that they opted to knowingly ram their entire franchise into the dirt by bringing in Westbrook instead? I suppose that could just mean that they're dumb, but it could also mean they were really hoping for any alternative to the Hield plan. It sure does seem obvious that Hield was a much better on-court fit, after all.
#2 is a valid point.
(02-07-2022, 11:21 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Total number of 3s is a strange way to assess value. Based on that, THJ is a way better shooter than Seth Curry.
What we are really concerned about is their offensive impact on the court, right? Looking at several advanced metrics over the last two years they are simply not that different:
The reason I use total # of threes is because at this level, the efficiency of these guys are all relatively the same. +/- 1-2% points. So it really comes down to how much are they producing at that efficiency level. Thus the total volume of threes. Case in point Seth, who statistically has been the most efficient 3pt shooter in the league for quite some time. Our biggest complaint with him here is that he didn't shoot more! That is still the biggest knock on him. So yes Seth is good for 2-3 threes a game. But that's it.
KL pretty much explained why I value a guy that can hit 8-10 threes a game and do it at an elite efficiency. Not many guys can do that. THJ at his best was just a smidge below that level.
(02-07-2022, 11:21 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ] THJ 2020 2021 Hield 2020 2021
OBPM 1.2 2.0 2.5 1.0 (Best boxscore advanced stat)
Lebron 1.2 .9 1.4 1.7 (top on/off advanced stat)
EMP 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.8 (top on/off advanced stat)
Darko .7 .6 (best estimator, only looks at right now)
This is mainly getting at this:
(02-07-2022, 11:56 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Buddy's a better player than THJ but I don't think they are all that far apart.
I don't think Buddy is some all-star waiting to break out. I just think he'd be a similar contributor that we had when THJ was at his best, with just slightly higher volume 3pt shooting. In the past the Mavs were at their best with efficient shooter around Luka. Hield is that to a T. Despite his defensive limitations, he'd be one of our most valued contributors. Further it appears he's fine playing that 6th man role. Something that would work here behind Brunson.
(02-07-2022, 11:59 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with #1, but isn't it interesting that they opted to knowingly ram their entire franchise into the dirt by bringing in Westbrook instead? I suppose that could just mean that they're dumb, but it could also mean they were really hoping for any alternative to the Hield plan. It sure does seem obvious that Hield was a much better on-court fit, after all.
#2 is a valid point.
The Lakers have basically told the Logo to fuck off, so I don't think there is any question that they are dumb. They also let Caruso walk when he offered them a discount.
(02-08-2022, 12:43 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think Buddy is some all-star waiting to break out. I just think he'd be a similar contributor that we had when THJ was at his best, with just slightly higher volume 3pt shooting. In the past the Mavs were at their best with efficient shooter around Luka. Hield is that to a T. Despite his defensive limitations, he'd be one of our most valued contributors. Further it appears he's fine playing that 6th man role. Something that would work here behind Brunson.
I'm a big Buddy Love fan and I was hoping we'd trade for him years ago. Like I said, I'd take him over THJ any day of the week but THJ does have some good intangibles (wanting to be here, being a great teammate).
(02-08-2022, 01:00 AM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]I'm a big Buddy Love fan and I was hoping we'd trade for him years ago. Like I said, I'd take him over THJ any day of the week but THJ does have some good intangibles (wanting to be here, being a great teammate).
I agree THJ has those intangibles that are good for the locker room. But on court production matters just as much and he unfortunately won't be contributing this season.
I don't think Buddy would be a cancer, and perhaps could bring those same intangibles that we see in Timmy. It's not like THJ was known as a leader before getting here.
(02-07-2022, 11:31 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]The scary thing about that 3D chess is moving Fournier for an expiring is enough to get NY the space needed to sign Brunson in the summer. We need NY to be a buyer (McCollom?), not a seller.
If Cuban doesn't offer him a good deal, he's probably gone anyway. This is his 1st chance to get paid, and if Dallas doesn't pay him, somebody else will. Same goes for DFS. Cuban is going to have pay them both.
Quote:"Dallas remains invested in retaining both Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith, despite wide-ranging interest in both Mavericks. The Pistons are believed to have particular interest in Brunson, and Detroit can make a strong offer for the point guard in free agency to pair alongside Cade Cunningham—similar to his fit next to Luka Doncic"
DET are one of the few teams that can throw big money at Brunson. I guess the question is does Brunson value winning over money? I know MacMahon has already come out and said Brunson prefers to stay in Dallas. But if the Pistons are going to throw 100 mil at Brunson are we sure that he's going to stay?