(01-25-2022, 01:46 PM)Davemo Wrote: [ -> ]Any thoughts on players we can trade for to help?
For rebounding and pushing people around? Valanciunas is the first one that comes to mind. Nurkic is another. Both are big burly guys that are good rebounders.
The question is, is it worth the asset investment for those guys? I'm leaning towards no given KP excelling at the 5.
(01-25-2022, 05:16 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Let me run the Harden/Luka tandem through the old mind computer.
![[Image: homer-simpson-nuclear-meltdown-stopped-by-fluke.gif]](https://c.tenor.com/1y124NL24rgAAAAM/homer-simpson-nuclear-meltdown-stopped-by-fluke.gif)
Is it crazy to think that I thought of that too? I don't see how it'd work since their playstyles are too similar. We saw that when Harden played with WB they cannibalized each other on offense and lowered the efficiency overall for the team (still was at a 55 win pace with them).
Though, Luka is a MUCH better player off the ball than Westbrook. Maybe it could work...?
(01-25-2022, 02:36 PM)bearforce1 Wrote: [ -> ]Tobias Harris would be the best player in this deal, but he's probably the most negative value contract in the deal too so that's why I proposed Philly adding a FRP.
To me, this is somewhat akin to the Wizards breaking up the Westbrook contract for a few pieces from the Lakers. THJ and Powell are basically the same money as Harris but they expire sooner/decline in value and are more easily tradable.
I don't see them sending out a first, but maybe we could at least tack on the stupid Burke contract.
(01-25-2022, 05:20 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Is it crazy to think that I thought of that too? I don't see how it'd work since their playstyles are too similar. We saw that when Harden played with WB they cannibalized each other on offense and lowered the efficiency overall for the team (still was at a 55 win pace with them).
Though, Luka is a MUCH better player off the ball than Westbrook. Maybe it could work...?
When Harden first went to the Nets and Kyrie handed over the keys (props to him for that), Harden played really well and it made me hope that would be the evolution Luka could eventually make (Luka's already much more of a distributor).
You'd at least have to consider it. KP to the Nets might be fine too. I think he an KD are cool.
*thinking*
(01-25-2022, 05:23 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]KP to the Nets might be fine too. I think he an KD are cool.
I have been thinking recently of backing off of my plea to trade Porzingis, but if you can use him to get Harden or any other player of that caliber you kind of have to, right?
(01-25-2022, 05:41 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I have been thinking recently of backing off of my plea to trade Porzingis, but if you can use him to get Harden or any other player of that caliber you kind of have to, right?
If KP plays defense like last game, maybe better than Harder. But will he do that consistently?
Harder would add a lot tough.
(01-25-2022, 05:41 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I have been thinking recently of backing off of my plea to trade Porzingis, but if you can use him to get Harden or any other player of that caliber you kind of have to, right?
"You kind of have to, right?" is exactly what I keep asking and saying "yeah" to.
(01-25-2022, 01:43 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IWiADg7IiU
^ Great relatively recent video on Smart and his defensive prowess.
I wouldn't mind him. His extension doesn't even take him near the 20mil mark till the last 2 years of the deal, which isn't that bad.
I thought this was a good place to respond to the Smart commentary that I've seen (double entendre intended). Number one, if Boston is shopping him, it isn't for DFS. They need a PG, so the core of what they want from Dallas is JB. Before we even get into the Smart vs. Brunson fit in the starting lineup, let's get into the rest of the deal.
For me, THJ has to be part of the outgoing for salary matching purposes.. With that as the base of the deal, Boston is still $10mm over the tax. They don't really have a smaller contract that works (no, not JRich again). So, let's upsize and add Horford and Powell to the deal. Horford is only $14mm guaranteed next season and Boston is committed to R. Williams at center. So, with their tax situation, they won't keep Horford anyway. Powell plays like Williams and makes sense as a backup. Horford would give Dallas a big expiring deal this summer to add to a pick(s). He'd be great as the big off the bench role that Powell has been playing and could take the starting role on those nights KP needs a rest. He's Boston's leading player by LEBRON and EPM. He is not insignificant for a team looking to make a run.
The obvious choice for the third outgoing player from Boston in a DP/THJ/Brunson for Smart/Horford deal is Schroeder since we'll need a backup PG (Smart can't run the second team like Brunson can). He's another player Boston can't keep, so why not cash him in. Of course, Dragic might come available, so I'll point out that Nesmith played for Stack at Vandy and there was some interest in him at the draft. He's an Excel guy. Grant Williams is a Duffy guy and has one more season before he's RFA. PJ Dozier is also a Duffy guy. Any of those guys could be the third Boston player. My money would be on Grant Williams as Maxi won't be here forever.
So, the elephant in the room is Smart vs. JB. As I showed in a post this morning, Brunson is a negative player defensively and a great positive offensively. Smart is basically the invert and slightly more highly rated overall in LEBRON and EPM. The real question is who fits better with Luka. Some eye tests don't agree, but for January the Luka/JB combo has a net rating of 2.4. It is Brunson's second worst pairing behind THJ. In that same time frame, Bruson is by far Luka's worst pairing. This is concerning since it is the most success the team has had in the Luka era. Meanwhile Smart is a Kidd wet dream. If the team has any concerns about retaining Brunson, Smart wouldn't be a dumb alternative (see what I did there).
Kings getting almost doubled up by the Celtics at HT might finally push Vivek over the top. Play-in is slipping away, too. 3.5 games behind the Blazers, possibly 2.5 games behind the Pelicans, both trending in the right direction.
(01-25-2022, 08:25 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]So, the elephant in the room is Smart vs. JB. As I showed in a post this morning, Brunson is a negative player defensively and a great positive offensively. Smart is basically the invert and slightly more highly rated overall in LEBRON and EPM. The real question is who fits better with Luka. Some eye tests don't agree, but for January the Luka/JB combo has a net rating of 2.4. It is Brunson's second worst pairing behind THJ. In that same time frame, Bruson is by far Luka's worst pairing. This is concerning since it is the most success the team has had in the Luka era. Meanwhile Smart is a Kidd wet dream. If the team has any concerns about retaining Brunson, Smart wouldn't be a dumb alternative (see what I did there).
Love the reply Dan it's always nice when you put your 2 cents in with trades like this since you add another layer to your analysis with agent relations and lineup data.
Some thoughts, could this be a case of stats misleading the true value Brunson provides? Sure the overall net rating is a slight positive 2.4, but while Brunson is out there it's apparent teams are respecting his ability to drive and create.
I'm no Boston expert, as I've really only watched 3 games this year. But Smart historically isn't known for his ability to put the ball down and create on offense (Though it isn't out of this world to think he CAN do that if asked just not as good as Brunson). Is Schroeder good enough to replace Brunson? If so why is Boston so keen to get something for him this year since they're desperate for a point guard? The stats say Schroeder is having a pretty good year with 16/3/5 on 44/36/85.
Further, we've already seen how Luka looks next to a 2-guard that not only can't shoot, but can't create either with Richardson. I think Smart is a savvier offensive player than Richardson, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I was a little anxious on that fit from that perspective. Brunson isn't a 3pt sniper, but he CAN hit them. At least at a rate higher than Smart anyways (Brunson career 3pt%: 36.4, vs, Smart career 3pt%: 31.9).
Is Smart's defense enough to make up that difference? Does otherworldly defense even matter if you have to break the offense to do it?
I was approaching a Smart deal as him essentially replacing Maxi in the starting lineup where: Luka/JB/Smart/DFS/KP would be the starting 5. The Schroeder addition (and hopefully Dragic later on) is the key piece to this deal. If Schroeder can provide that efficient offense Brunson has been giving then it's a no brainer, especially since Schroeder can defend as well.
Still I have some trepidation at the thought of dealing Brunson just because I don't want to ruin the chemistry the team is rocking with. That Smart deal will probably still be there in the summer if we really want it as well.
Since we're on the subject, here's another great video on Smart's defensive awareness. It isn't lost on me that Smart's teams have made it out of the first round 4 times in 7 tries. Maybe defense truly is the end all be all when you have an offensive savant like Luka on the team?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ4HTegBk44
Before SH's post I was going to ask, what does Smart do on offense for the Mavs?
And, is he still going to be effective for the duration of.his contract?
(01-25-2022, 08:53 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Love the reply Dan it's always nice when you put your 2 cents in with trades like this since you add another layer to your analysis with agent relations and lineup data.
Some thoughts, could this be a case of stats misleading the true value Brunson provides? Sure the overall net rating is a slight positive 2.4, but while Brunson is out there it's apparent teams are respecting his ability to drive and create.
I'm no Boston expert, as I've really only watched 3 games this year. But Smart historically isn't known for his ability to put the ball down and create on offense (Though it isn't out of this world to think he CAN do that if asked just not as good as Brunson). Is Schroeder good enough to replace Brunson? If so why is Boston so keen to get something for him this year since they're desperate for a point guard? The stats say Schroeder is having a pretty good year with 16/3/5 on 44/36/85.
Further, we've already seen how Luka looks next to a 2-guard that not only can't shoot, but can't create either with Richardson. I think Smart is a savvier offensive player than Richardson, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I was a little anxious on that fit from that perspective. Brunson isn't a 3pt sniper, but he CAN hit them. At least at a rate higher than Smart anyways (Brunson career 3pt%: 36.4, vs, Smart career 3pt%: 31.9).
Is Smart's defense enough to make up that difference? Does otherworldly defense even matter if you have to break the offense to do it?
I was approaching a Smart deal as him essentially replacing Maxi in the starting lineup where: Luka/JB/Smart/DFS/KP would be the starting 5. The Schroeder addition (and hopefully Dragic later on) is the key piece to this deal. If Schroeder can provide that efficient offense Brunson has been giving then it's a no brainer, especially since Schroeder can defend as well.
Still I have some trepidation at the thought of dealing Brunson just because I don't want to ruin the chemistry the team is rocking with. That Smart deal will probably still be there in the summer if we really want it as well.
Since we're on the subject, here's another great video on Smart's defensive awareness. It isn't lost on me that Smart's teams have made it out of the first round 4 times in 7 tries. Maybe defense truly is the end all be all when you have an offensive savant like Luka on the team?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ4HTegBk44
A few comments on this:
Schroder would in no way be replacing Brunson. He would at most be a backup point that gave you some minutes when Luka is off the floor. I would much rather have Dragic play that role, and I am guessing the Mavs would as well.
Smart is not a creator in the way Brunson is and he is not a great three point shooter. Brunson has a better 3 point percentage, but part of that is he is more selective. He only takes about 3 a game. Its one of the knocks on his fit with Luka. Smart takes about 5 a game and is not terrible when its wide open. His primary value on offense is as a secondary playmaker. His actual offensive on/off value is not that bad, but he is not in same league as Brunson.
On the other hand, Smart's fit with Luka on defense is perfect. He is an elite, versatile point of attack defender. He would allow DFS to take on the second best perimeter offensive player (in which he would excel). The defense would be even better than it is now, and there would not be a concern of Brunson getting hunted in the playoffs.
Horford is still playing at a high level, but not sure it makes sense for him to play a lot of minutes with KP. That kind of limits his contributions.
This trade would definitely be the case of trading offense for defense. Given that our offense is what is struggling, that seems like going in the wrong direction. If we end effectively trading out Brunson for Smart, I think it makes a lot of sense to see if we can get Tobias Harris (possibly in a three way). That would help balance out the loss in offense. I really like a KP/Harris/DFS/Smart/Luka starting lineup.
I think you can make the argument that Smart is a better fit with Luka due to how impactful his defense would be. On the other hand, I think we already know what Smart is, but Brunson is still improving. I don't think you do something like this unless you have legit concern you are going to be able to hold onto Brunson.
EDIT: Also, you suggested that this deal could be done in the summer. Wont be able to trade Brunson then unless its a tricky S&T. Not sure how workable that would be, but Brunson could run off to NY after they cleared cap and there would be nothing we could do.
(01-26-2022, 12:27 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Brunson allegedly has admirers in Detroit.
That's a team with cap-space this summer, but the question is does Brunson admire Detroit?
I can see Detroit throwing 70+ mil at Brunson just because they need any talent.
(01-26-2022, 12:27 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Brunson allegedly has admirers in Detroit.
NBA Rumors: James Harden, Ben Simmons, Domantas Sabonis Trade Talks (hoopshype.com)
So THJ + Brunson for Grant? Don't know if that makes sense for Detroit. I'm not a fan of Grant, but if we are going to dump Brunson to avoid tax, this helps address our offensive issues and opens up a spot for backup point guard (Dragic, Kemba, Schroder).
Its suggested we are trying to avoid the tax, but that is going to be tough without trading THJ or Brunson.
(01-26-2022, 02:07 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]So THJ + Brunson for Grant? Don't know if that makes sense for Detroit. I'm not a fan of Grant, but if we are going to dump Brunson to avoid tax, this helps address our offensive issues and opens up a spot for backup point guard (Dragic, Kemba, Schroder).
Its suggested we are trying to avoid the tax, but that is going to be tough without trading THJ or Brunson.
The trade I'm enamored with right now is:
ORL: THJ+ either M.Brown or Green
BOS: Brunson+Kleber+Lopez+ either G.Harris or Ross
DAL: Schroeder+Horford+Smart
Mavs get their 2 ball handlers for the playoffs. All 3 have shown they can play well in the playoffs. Smart brings his defensive intensity and we hope and pray that Schroeder can replicate Brunson's ball movement/shot creation. Horford basically replaces Maxi who I think is on the decline.
Boston saves 11M, ORL saves 2.5 mil, Mavs just barely avoid the tax this year by 2.0 mil. Horford is only partially guaranteed next year and Schroeder is expiring as well so that should make getting under the tax easy if we want to resign DFS.
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