MavsBoard

(01-14-2022, 09:21 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I dig this a TON.

I think I do too. 

Plus the last trade with Atlanta seemed to work out pretty well for the Mavs, so let's make it two in a row!

(01-14-2022, 08:54 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Is Turner trying to force his way out of Indiana.

Sure feels like it. One of the oldest tricks in the book is slacking off as a player and underperforming if you want out of town.

(01-14-2022, 09:09 PM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]DAL in: Collins, Bogdanovic, Holmes.
ATL in: Barnes, DFS, Brunson.
SAC in: Porzingis, Williams.

Luka/Ntilikina
Bogdanovic/Hardaway
Bullock/Green
Collins/Kleber
Holmes/Powell

I feel like the reason Collins is unhappy is that he does his best work in the paint, but he plays with Capella a lot, so he gets squeezed out.  I'm not sure it makes sense to combine him and Holmes.  I think he makes way more sense with a stretch 5 (like KP or Turner) so he can spend most of his time operating in the paint.

(01-14-2022, 09:20 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]Interesting. I appreciate the creativity.

Bogdonavic is a guy that I think could be a legit trade match with Dallas, especially if THJ is going the other way. They make about the same money, are both struggling this season, and even have ties to the other team (THJ with his prior time in ATL and Bogi with Luka friendship vibes). 

The framework I keep coming back to is THJ/DFS/Maxi for Bogi/Collins. That would fit the needs of both rosters (Mavs PF and Hawks defense), swap 2 gunners into new situations, and buy Atlanta more salary flexibility both now and in the future.

So after that trade our top 5 guys would be Luka/KP/Collins/Brunson/Bogi, all offense first players.  Its hard to imagine how you are going to be even average defensively?  I'm not sure putting Bullock in there will make enough difference.

I thought Homes couldn’t be traded until The off-season because of when he signed. But if I had that wrong then here’s my idea: 

Cavs-Barnes
Kings-KP
Mavs-Markkanen/Holmes

The money should be close but there might have to be some celery filler in there somewhere.

Turner box score tonight was ugly.

(01-15-2022, 12:43 AM)Hypermav Wrote: [ -> ]Turner box score tonight was ugly.

That oughta lower his value. 

via GIPHY

Stop trading DFS you cowards.

We would have to find a team for THJ ... Hawks will not take it ... They got rid of Reddish, because they won't be able to pay all their guys..with Hunter waiting for a payday..and Huerter/CollinsCapela/Young extensions etc.. Even Bogs has a shorter contract..

It is more and more clear how great a fit Luka and Brunson are. The space Luka provides, Brunson take advatnage of by penetration, where he is at his most dangerous. Luka allows Brunson to enter that paint consistently. This is exactly what the Luka offense needed! It was not having pure 4 shooters around Luka. The space Luka creates can be taken advantage of different ways and Brunson is highlighting this in the best of manners!

It is more and more clear Luka and Brunson are the two players untouchable and build around the rest of the team around the two.

(01-15-2022, 10:32 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]It is more and more clear how great a fit Luka and Brunson are. The space Luka provides, Brunson take advatnage of by penetration, where he is at his most dangerous. Luka allows Brunson to enter that paint consistently. This is exactly what the Luka offense needed! It was not having pure 4 shooters around Luka. The space Luka creates can be taken advantage of different ways and Brunson is highlighting this in the best of manners!

It is more and more clear Luka and Brunson are the two players untouchable and build around the rest of the team around the two.

From a post in another thread:


Sticking with 12/1 as the start date, Bullock is +26.5.   Luka is in the 10+ area with THJ, Green and KP since 12/1.  It drops down to +4.3 with Powell, +2.8 with Maxi, +0.5 with DFS and -3.1 with Brunson.  What?  Surely it looks better since January 1st where we've won six of seven games?  Nope.  Brunson/Luka are -5.6 since 1/1.  

(01-15-2022, 10:54 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]From a post in another thread:


Sticking with 12/1 as the start date, Bullock is +26.5.   Luka is in the 10+ area with THJ, Green and KP since 12/1.  It drops down to +4.3 with Powell, +2.8 with Maxi, +0.5 with DFS and -3.1 with Brunson.  What?  Surely it looks better since January 1st where we've won six of seven games?  Nope.  Brunson/Luka are -5.6 since 1/1.  

It's interesting DS. An example of the negative numbers, the +/- can come from a short period (one or two bad games with a huge team loss) while being consistently great in multiple games winning all by a small positive margin. What I would like to see is the median distribution around the +/- numbers in general, which could hint more on the consistency behind the overall number. In the illustrated example, the mean number would be positive for two players (related to number of games instead just overall all games), while the overall number would be negative, due to that single or few big losses. I would like to see statistics that breaks this single number down in multlple parameters in order to understand it better.

In addition to the above parameters, there are so many other variables that impact the +/- numbers, that it is too difficult for me to understand it and use it.

WCS and Burke are all around +2.0. Luka is -1.7. This alone would suggest to build the team around WCS and Burke and trade Luka for a 2nd round pick. There is too much noise in this unless we find out how to deduce the reasons why the numbers are as such.

(01-15-2022, 12:01 PM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]It's interesting DS. An example of the negative numbers, the +/- can come from a short period (one or two bad games with a huge team loss) while being consistently great in multiple games winning all by a small positive margin. What I would like to see is the median distribution around the +/- numbers in general, which could hint more on the consistency behind the overall number. In the illustrated example, the mean number would be positive for two players (related to number of games instead just overall all games), while the overall number would be negative, due to that single or few big losses.  

Let's just look at 1/1 til now.  Below are raw numbers for Brunson, for Luka and the combo in a series of games where the combo total is -5.6.  Yes, it is a small sample size, but we did go 6-1 during this stretch with an average margin of +9.7.

        Team         JB        Luka         Combo
1/2   W (+9)      +0         -4            -20.0
1/3   W (14)      +10       +25          +47.3   
1/5   W (+17)     -2         +2            -32.6         
1/7   W (+24)     +31      DNP           NA
1/9   W (+14)     +3        +26          +19.3
1/12  L (-23)       -19       -24            -35.6
1/14  W (+27)    +12      +12           -6.8

Turns out a couple of good games (Games Luka was really positive) are lifting up the number (to -5.6) rather than one bad game dragging down an otherwise good number.  Yeah, I thought you might have made a good point about the really bad performance in NY, but the Luka/JB minutes were really bad in wins against OKC and Golden State.  Even in last night's game the combo was -6.8.

(01-15-2022, 02:39 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Let's just look at 1/1 til now.  Below are raw numbers for Brunson, for Luka and the combo in a series of games where the combo total is -5.6.  Yes, it is a small sample size, but we did go 6-1 during this stretch with an average margin of +9.7.

        Team         JB        Luka         Combo
1/2   W (+9)      +0         -4            -20.0
1/3   W (14)      +10       +25          +47.3   
1/5   W (+17)     -2         +2            -32.6         
1/7   W (+24)     +31      DNP           NA
1/9   W (+14)     +3        +26          +19.3
1/12  L (-23)       -19       -24            -35.6
1/14  W (+27)    +12      +12           -6.8

Turns out a couple of good games (Games Luka was really positive) are lifting up the number (to -5.6) rather than one bad game dragging down an otherwise good number.  Yeah, I thought you might have made a good point about the really bad performance in NY, but the Luka/JB minutes were really bad in wins against OKC and Golden State.  Even in last night's game the combo was -6.8.

Any tendence when it comes to offensive/defensive rating? What is tanking the lineup numbers?

(01-15-2022, 02:39 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Let's just look at 1/1 til now.  Below are raw numbers for Brunson, for Luka and the combo in a series of games where the combo total is -5.6.  Yes, it is a small sample size, but we did go 6-1 during this stretch with an average margin of +9.7.

        Team         JB        Luka         Combo
1/2   W (+9)      +0         -4            -20.0
1/3   W (14)      +10       +25          +47.3   
1/5   W (+17)     -2         +2            -32.6         
1/7   W (+24)     +31      DNP           NA
1/9   W (+14)     +3        +26          +19.3
1/12  L (-23)       -19       -24            -35.6
1/14  W (+27)    +12      +12           -6.8

Turns out a couple of good games (Games Luka was really positive) are lifting up the number (to -5.6) rather than one bad game dragging down an otherwise good number.  Yeah, I thought you might have made a good point about the really bad performance in NY, but the Luka/JB minutes were really bad in wins against OKC and Golden State.  Even in last night's game the combo was -6.8.

I feel like this is too small a sample to derive too much from yet, but we only a few weeks more sample before we have to make a decision on Brunson.  If he really is not a good fit with Luka (which is not surprising because they are such similar players, neither being particularly good at catch and shoot or defense which the other needs to complement them) then it probably makes sense to move him.  

Personally I like the idea of combining Brunson with THJ and sending them out for a player that basically combines them (can be a secondary distributor and a catch and shoot player).  The two guys I can think of who make most sense are McCollum and Hayward, but I don't really see either team wanting the THJ/Brunson package.

(01-15-2022, 02:39 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Let's just look at 1/1 til now.  Below are raw numbers for Brunson, for Luka and the combo in a series of games where the combo total is -5.6.  Yes, it is a small sample size, but we did go 6-1 during this stretch with an average margin of +9.7.

        Team         JB        Luka         Combo
1/2   W (+9)      +0         -4            -20.0
1/3   W (14)      +10       +25          +47.3   
1/5   W (+17)     -2         +2            -32.6         
1/7   W (+24)     +31      DNP           NA
1/9   W (+14)     +3        +26          +19.3
1/12  L (-23)       -19       -24            -35.6
1/14  W (+27)    +12      +12           -6.8

Turns out a couple of good games (Games Luka was really positive) are lifting up the number (to -5.6) rather than one bad game dragging down an otherwise good number.  Yeah, I thought you might have made a good point about the really bad performance in NY, but the Luka/JB minutes were really bad in wins against OKC and Golden State.  Even in last night's game the combo was -6.8.

Thanks. I would like to see it borken down more. A lot more so we can comprehend this noisy number. Could it perhaps be that Luka and Brunson are the perfect fit, but due to other players that tend to be paired with Luka and Brunson that it does not work? Do we have the stats how Luka and Brunson are together with THJ. Compared to Luka and Brunson compared to DFS? Etc etc. Is it because some other player in that rotations messes it up? There are 3 additional players in that lineup. Luka and Brunson could fit perfectly, but not with the other three players equally.

My eye test tells me Luka and Brunson are a perfect match. And that we need to build around the two with players that match and complement with the skills for that scheme they fit within.

The Garden of Forking Paths.

If you torture the numbers enough I'm sure you can find a way to make them 'support' your eye test.

(01-15-2022, 03:09 PM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]Thanks. I would like to see it borken down more. A lot more so we can comprehend this noisy number. Could it perhaps be that Luka and Brunson are the perfect fit, but due to other players that tend to be paired with Luka and Brunson that it does not work? Do we have the stats how Luka and Brunson are together with THJ. Compared to Luka and Brunson compared to DFS? Etc etc. Is it because some other player in that rotations messes it up? There are 3 additional players in that lineup. Luka and Brunson could fit perfectly, but not with the other three players equally.

My eye test tells me Luka and Brunson are a perfect match. And that we need to build around the two with players that match and complement with the skills for that scheme they fit within.

Trifecta of evil on full display during the Grizzlies game.

Luka - Brunson - THJ - DFS - Chriss
-140.0 in 2 min

Luka - Brunson - THJ - DFS - Powell
-9.1 in 9 min

Luka - Brunson - DFS - Kleber - Powell
+13.8 in 13 min