MavsBoard

(01-04-2023, 02:56 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Wouldn't getting an assist negatively effect one's usage?

No. Assists have nothing to do with usage. It's entirely based on FGA, free throw attempts, and turnovers

Believe it or not. Luka isn't even the league's leader in usage (he's behind Giannis and Embiid)

(01-04-2023, 05:02 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]You do realize he was probably messing with you

(01-04-2023, 05:03 PM)MrGoat Wrote: [ -> ]No. Assists have nothing to do with usage. It's entirely based on FGA, free throw attempts, and turnovers

Believe it or not. Luka isn't even the league's leader in usage (he's behind Giannis and Embiid)

But if you make an assist, you've increased your teammates usage which would decrease your own.  No?

(01-04-2023, 04:16 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]If the Mavs come out of this with Wood on a 3+1 (TO) I will give Nico heaps and heaps of praise. 

Thanks for sharing this and curious to see how it plays out.

I wonder if 2+1 with a PO is on the table.  Feels like that is the offseason they are looking to create cap space and with the cap going up you would think it would be an easy opt out decision for Wood to get more money (assuming he keeps playing well).  Feels like the most win/win scenario for both sides.

(01-04-2023, 05:46 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]I wonder if 2+1 with a PO is on the table.  Feels like that is the offseason they are looking to create cap space and with the cap going up you would think it would be an easy opt out decision for Wood to get more money (assuming he keeps playing well).  Feels like the most win/win scenario for both sides.

I think 2+1 (PO) is a win for Wood's camp, as I think anything with a PO is a win for Wood. I think anything with a TO is a win for the Mavs.

(01-04-2023, 05:50 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I think 2+1 (PO) is a win for Wood's camp, as I think anything with a PO is a win for Wood. I think anything with a TO is a win for the Mavs.

Ya I agree so I think if that's a sticking point then why not throw him a bone?  I know it's a gamble but it's also a show a faith and I would think most likely he'd opt out anyway and still create the space you're hoping for.

Luka talks about winning.

I'm going right ahead and say, he probably knows the Mavs can't win it all this year, but this kid will compete no matter what line-up you give him.
He most likely knows too that his best shot at making the play-offs and winning some games in it, is retaining Wood.

The Mavs won't get much in return in a Wood trade, that's a given.
Probably would get a useful player, but not someone who has half the impact that Wood has.

Trading Wood is still the right move if they can't get an extension done, but it's going to be a disappointing move if Wood genuinely wants to stay and the Mavs can't get a deal done because of their insistence in years.

Now, back to Luka on this. These guys talk. Luka probably knows what happened with JB, most likely knows why Dragic wasn't signed, and if Luka likes Wood, then not extending Wood would be one more move against him coming from his own FO.

And if the Mavs pile up losses after the trade, this is going to get ugly.
In Luka's mind: This team threw away a good chance at a run this year and basically shut the door on a top 4 seed.
And about that top 4 seed, I know Luka wants to win a championship first and foremost, but who's to say the MVP award isn't in his mind?

So yeah, a trade with someone "useful but underwhelming" in return plus (maybe) an early second round (or late first?) pick is what the Mavs will get. The FO better hope they get someone good out of the pick as consolation for a throw away season.

A trade will be another downgrade in talent move for a team lacking in it.

Luka wants to win. Agreed.

But Luka doesn't want to GM. He's really good at staying in his lane. I see no indication he wants to change that.

I do think that Cuban as a GM, eschewing hiring true experts, is more likely to face mounting pressure from fans, media, analysts, NBA experts, and perhaps from other FO people, rather than from Luka, if he keeps running this Luka window of opportunity into a ditch.

(01-04-2023, 07:02 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Luka wants to win. Agreed.

But Luka doesn't want to GM. He's really good at staying in his lane. I see no indication he wants to change that.

I do think that Cuban as a GM, eschewing hiring true experts, is more likely to face mounting pressure from fans, media, analysts, NBA experts, and perhaps from other FO people, rather than from Luka, if he keeps running this Luka window of opportunity into a ditch.

Yes, I have seen him in interviews and he just basically said, it's not for him to meddle with those things and he is just here to play.
That's refreshing and very much appreciated.

But Luka is just 23.
And losing can feed a player ill thoughts.
Luka's thinking and demeanor 3 years from now might be different.
.. Or he can just keep it to himself, say the right words, play the good soldier, but still leave because in his head, the FO didn't inspire confidence they can get things right.

(01-04-2023, 05:50 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I think 2+1 (PO) is a win for Wood's camp, as I think anything with a PO is a win for Wood. I think anything with a TO is a win for the Mavs.

Much depends on where the market for Wood actually is.  If it is truly in the mid-$20's per year, then Wood has the leverage to ask for whatever he wants.  But, you have to ask yourself why wouldn't he just bet on himself with the potential for a $30mm reward six months from now.  

If, on the other hand, his current limitation or just a hair higher is about his market, then both sides have to weigh risk against reward.  Dallas has to be frightened of the PR disaster of Brunson v2.0.  But, Wood has risk also.  $18mm average is too much for a bench big (even one that scores efficiently).  Does his agent feel secure that there is starter money out there for Wood?  A sure way to get fired is to overplay your hand.  We are just 2 1/2 months of games from Houston not finding any takers for a year.

I think there is a compromise position here assuming it is legal for an extension.  The third year is a TO, but partially guaranteed.  That is what the Brooklyn did with Dinwiddie as part of the S&T to Washington.  He signed a 3 year $54mm deal, but the third year is only guaranteed for $10mm.  Put a $4mm guarantee on Wood's 3rd year and the AAV is now $20mm instead of $18mm if Dallas moves on from him.  Offer the same thing Dinwiddie got (the numbers are very similar to Wood's max extension) and you've bumped the AAV to $22.5mm.  The risk Wood has is that he outplays his contract and he's "stuck" making about $19mm that third year.  But I go back to the question of what his market really is.  If 2/$36 isn't a fair number, why are we even talking.  If it is a fair number, why wouldn't 3/$55mm not be fair.  From the Dallas side, a PO just sticks them with the exact issue they were hoping to avoid if things go poorly.  In fact, it is the worst of both worlds.  Plays well, he's free.  Plays poorly, you are stuck for an extra year.

Selfishly, I'd like to see this done sooner rather than later.  It would be much easier to discuss possible next moves if you knew Wood is going to be your guy.

(01-04-2023, 08:21 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]From the Dallas side, a PO just sticks them with the exact issue they were hoping to avoid if things go poorly.  In fact, it is the worst of both worlds.  Plays well, he's free.  Plays poorly, you are stuck for an extra year.

That is my whole point. A PO is a loss for the Mavs.

(01-04-2023, 06:49 PM)Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo Wrote: [ -> ]Luka talks about winning.

I'm going right ahead and say, he probably knows the Mavs can't win it all this year, but this kid will compete no matter what line-up you give him.

I guarandamntee you Luka thinks the Mavs can win a title this year and that his entire thought process is around how to make that happen. That’s just how he’s built.

(01-04-2023, 08:21 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]But, you have to ask yourself why wouldn't he just bet on himself with the potential for a $30mm reward six months from now.

I think the answer is simple - things can go wrong. He may have a bad playoff series, he may injure himself. I think if the offer on the table would be 4 years, it would be more or less a no brainer from his perspective, even if you think you can get up to lets say 90/4 in the summer. 

Now, 36 mil contract is of course far, far less than he could get in a four year deal if he plays reasonably well. I find it unlikely he would accept that. TO doesn't give him insurance if things go wrong for him. 

I think Mavs negotiating position is not very strong. Neither from PR nor from team building perspective they can't afford another fiasco. I think this "we will explore trade market" is a bluff Wood can easily call. FO is always exploring possibilities anyway. I doubt they could get much more than they paid for him and their only real win position is if they resign him. I think Wood gets at least three years when things settle. If we take Collins, that was mentioned several times around here. His contract is bigger than what Mavs can pay to Wood, even if they give him 4 years.

(01-04-2023, 05:04 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]

Two areas that have impressed me about Wood lately:

1) He has made some plays on defense...mostly shot blocks.  There is probably more work needed on this end of the floor and I can understand the concern if he will be able to hold up in a playoff series.  But he has been a factor at the rim and there is hope for continued improvement.

2) Woods seems to know the Luka is the Sun and everything revolves around him.   At the start of games, he may not touch the ball for 3-4 possessions, and when he finally gets a touch he still will make the right play and not force anything.  I think this is where KP struggled.  When he went possessions without getting the ball, he would routinely take a bad or real difficult shot when he got the ball.    Wood seems to realize that just by being in the right spot, Luka will get him 10-12 easy points a game.    There will be times where Wood is the center of the offense but he has done a good job not forcing these situations.

(01-05-2023, 09:12 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Two areas that have impressed me about Wood lately:

1) He has made some plays on defense...mostly shot blocks.  There is probably more work needed on this end of the floor and I can understand the concern if he will be able to hold up in a playoff series.  But he has been a factor at the rim and there is hope for continued improvement.

2) Woods seems to know the Luka is the Sun and everything revolves around him.   At the start of games, he may not touch the ball for 3-4 possessions, and when he finally gets a touch he still will make the right play and not force anything.  I think this is where KP struggled.  When he went possessions without getting the ball, he would routinely take a bad or real difficult shot when he got the ball.    Wood seems to realize that just by being in the right spot, Luka will get him 10-12 easy points a game.    There will be times where Wood is the center of the offense but he has done a good job not forcing these situations.

Please trade THJ.  Please Lord.

THJ is playing really well next to Luka. Luka generates great looks and THJ is able to get a shot off on a lot of them, converting them at decent rate. His defense is also pretty decent. I think it also shows that offense became much more dynamic since they inserted THJ in the starting line-up. It was just too many very limited offensive players (DFS, Bullock, Maxi and also Green to an extent). THJ problem is when he tries to create - he is really bad in that role. Amazing we have plenty of data confirming this and coaching was still trying to make him something he is not. So, when thinking about moving THJ, I think it is important that his replacement brings a lot of what he can on the table on the offensive side. 

In my ideal scenario, I would actually keep THJ and move SD to 6th man. Contracts used for trade would be Bertans, Bullock and McGee.

Luka, SD
THJ, Hardy
DFS, Green
new guy, Maxi
Wood, Powell

Of course we don't live in an ideal world and more likely than not, at least one of the guys from the list above would be gone in a trade for a good "new guy". If it is DFS, can Green step up well enough? If it is THJ, can we bring in a good enough offense first rMLE guy?,...

On the side note - if someone is offering good assets at the TDL for any of the THJ, DFS, Maxi, I would strongly consider trading him.

(01-05-2023, 10:57 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]In my ideal scenario, I would actually keep THJ and move SD to 6th man. Contracts used for trade would be Bertans, Bullock and McGee.

Luka, SD
THJ, Hardy
DFS, Green
new guy, Maxi
Wood, Powell

I see Frank is out of the rotation in this scenario, which i like. But i'm not sure Hardy is ready to step in and give us minutes this season. He looks really bad when given a chance.

I hope we can get back a decent wing in your Bullock/ Bertans / McGee trade for "new guy". 

I'm looking at a team like Orlando and trying to see if we can get Ross or Harris. Maybe even Fultz.  

The Jazz are interesting if they keep falling. Conley, Clarkson, Beasley, Vanderbilt.

The Pistons with Alec Burks. Maybe even Saddiq Bey.

(01-05-2023, 11:22 AM)Nowitzki Way Wrote: [ -> ]I see Frank is out of the rotation in this scenario, which i like. But i'm not sure Hardy is ready to step in and give us minutes this season. He looks really bad when given a chance.

The trade is in the summer, not TDL imho. And most of the back-up minutes would go to SD, Hardy would still be getting very few.

(01-05-2023, 10:57 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]THJ is playing really well next to Luka. Luka generates great looks and THJ is able to get a shot off on a lot of them, converting them at decent rate. His defense is also pretty decent. I think it also shows that offense became much more dynamic since they inserted THJ in the starting line-up..

I want to believe that THJ is "playing really well" and I get encouraged when he has some good shooting games here and there, but the reality is that as a whole, he's still quite sucky on offense.

He's a "shooting" guard, but he's just not good enough as a shooter. Unfortunately, I think we notice the games where he is doing okay, and our minds figure he's probably doing pretty good, when in reality the numbers say something very different. Starting has NOT fixed his broken shot!

He's become better on defense, to be sure, and apparently is a leader with a good attitude.

But the one thing you want from him the most - the ability to knock down shots, especially 3s, to open the floor for Luka - is something he still is fairly lousy at. The season overall - 38% overall, 36% on 3s. Most recent 10 games, all starting, with much against some crappy opposition - 42% overall, 33% on 3s. And he has the benefit of Luka feeding him open looks, so it's not likely to get better.

For that reason, in any trade where there's a decent player coming back, I'd gladly include THJ in the package. In fact, maybe I should say "eagerly." I don't think he's a solution to build around, but I do think he has enough value resuscitated where, given his declining-dollar contract, moving him is at least value-neutral and might even be seen as value to a team needing a SG.