Not entirely Wood related, but I find it fascinating how slim the line is between a good GM and a poor one. A lot of times it is razor thin and in real time there are real justifications for most of the trades that don't turn out well. The magnifying glass is even more intense if you are lucky to have one of the true difference makers in the league already on your roster.
Right now things are not looking rosy. McGee was a miss and the roster if filled with middling guys at or near 30. But this offseason could look much more promising if Wood is a hit. I don't even want to say second best player on a good team. Lets set the bar at being the 4th best player (maybe second highest scorer though) on a contending team. Also, what if they got a hit on Jaden Hardy in the second round? Both, especially Hardy, are TBD, but then things start to look better. Could they repeat these type of moves this upcoming offseason? Maybe it is a bigger move and than finding another prospect hiding in plain site. When you already have one of the elite guys, it doesn't take much. I would just highlight you need to focus on guys who know how to play and guys who are mentally tough. Luka is ready to win now, so you need these type of guys to fill out the roster.
(01-04-2023, 12:28 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Right now things are not looking rosy. McGee was a miss and the roster if filled with middling guys at or near 30. But this offseason could look much more promising if Wood is a hit.
The off season was such a head scratcher. We start out trading for Wood and giving up our trash. Outside of Boban, none of those guys are in the league.
We lost a 1st rounder for Wood, but traded for a 2nd rounder and drafted the guy we very well would have drafted at 26 anyway. So far. So good.
Then the Brunson fiasco. Although we all know we lost him mid season, we didnt lose him in the off season.
Then signing McGee to that money was ridiculous. They needed a big man, but so many guys were out there that could have given us 10-15 minutes. Overpaying for Javale was just stupid.
i'm not sold on Nico at all.
(01-04-2023, 06:00 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Interestingly, Wood doesn't take any Usage from Luka when they are in the game together. But he takes a ton of usage from others. SD's and Dorian's Usage drop 17% when they play with Wood. Green's usage drops 15% and THJ's drops almost 9%. Oddly, SD's Assists per 100 possessions go up by 2.84 when he plays with Wood...Odd because Assists are part of Usage. .
Assists are not part of the usage calculation. I used to think that as well, but it's not - it's really nothing more than a way to calculate who is jacking up more than their share of shots/using up more possessions (and, weirdly, the stats designers have decided you need to be rewarded in your PER when you do). It's the opposite of team ball.
It's a very simple calculation that's fully intuitive - you add up the number of possessions used (shots taken, and a fixed pct of FT's shot), add in the turnovers, and then compare that to the total for the whole team. Then that raw number is adjusted for the minutes played.
To offer a benchmark, if each 5-man group played in a way to share the possessions equally, aiming to have perfect team ball, every player would have a 20% usage at the end of the game.
(01-04-2023, 06:00 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]That's an interesting line of thinking. We often think in terms of the impact Luka has on others. What about the impact others have on him. That 70 basis point bump in TS% is huge given the volume Luka shoots. Maxi gets that same 70 basis point bump and Bullock's TS% goes up 110 basis points when he's in with Wood compared to when he isn't.
Interestingly, Wood doesn't take any Usage from Luka when they are in the game together. But he takes a ton of usage from others. SD's and Dorian's Usage drop 17% when they play with Wood. Green's usage drops 15% and THJ's drops almost 9%. Oddly, SD's Assists per 100 possessions go up by 2.84 when he plays with Wood...Odd because Assists are part of Usage.
Reggie, Maxi and Luka are significantly better 3 point shooters when playing with Wood (Luka goes from .339 w/o to .385 with). But, Hardaway goes from .406 w/o to .316 with. SD goes from .456 w/o to .347 with Wood. Those guys shoot much better when paired with Powell. THJ is a .476 shooter from three with Powell and .290 without. SD is .479 with Powell and .364 without. It is just one stat, but 3% shooting reinforces the instinct that if Wood continues to start at least one of THJ and SD would be more effective if played in the non-Wood minutes. Hardaway is a positive influence on Luka in much the same way Wood is. Luka's TS% goes from .565 without THJ to .654 with him. Reggie's TS % is also hugely benefited by playing with THJ. SD and Powell are really good for each other's efficiency and should probably be the core of the non-Wood/non-Luka minutes.
Usage is a misunderstood stat. Believe it or not Luka doesn't even lead the league in usage (Giannis does).
The formula is: 100*((FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV) * (Team MP/5))/(Team FGA + 0.44 * Team FTA + Team Turnovers)
Translated, assists have nothing to do with it and Wood's usage numbers with others are easily explained because he actually deserves the ball when he looks to score
Wouldn't getting an assist negatively effect one's usage?
(01-04-2023, 02:56 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Wouldn't getting an assist negatively effect one's usage?
Obviously you can't get an assist and use the possession yourself, since the usage goes to the person who ended the possession (took the shot, or the FT, or committed the turnover). Usage is not a measurement of ball dominance (although high usage and high amount of ball dominance are likely to go together).
(01-04-2023, 03:37 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...0121236483
Wow, rumors started by both sides, daily. This is a full blown "negotiate through the media" approach that I don't remember the Mavs doing much during the Nelson days. I don't know if it's better or worse, but it's interesting.
(01-04-2023, 03:37 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/KevinGraySports/stat...3834930176
I won't copy and paste the entire thing in deference to Stein's excellent and relatively inexpensive service. But, I will quote two areas. He says they are not considered likely to offer the full four years. But sources have
"reaffirmed in recent days that they hope to retain the 27 year old depending on whether the sides can agree on years and deal structure".
I interpret this to mean haggling over two vs. three years and whether there are options for either side or partial guarantees. I tells me an AAV of about $18mm is not out of the question.
Here is another quote that I think supports the idea that what Wood is doing defensively now is different than what he was doing earlier in the season... "Wood quickly formed a pick and pop offensive chemistry upon arrival in Dallas with Doncic but undeniably struggled on defense through the season's first two months unless Kleber was on the floor beside him. Through Dec. 12, Dallas allowed 106.2 points per 100 possessions when Wood played alongside Kleber...compared to 120.7 points per 100 possessions when Wood was on the floor without Kleber at his side"
He then goes on to outline how things have gone in recent games but points out the opponent winning % in the seven game win streak is .396.
(01-04-2023, 04:05 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]He says they are not considered likely to offer the full four years. But sources have "reaffirmed in recent days that they hope to retain the 27 year old depending on whether the sides can agree on years and deal structure".
If the Mavs come out of this with Wood on a 3+1 (TO) I will give Nico heaps and heaps of praise.
Thanks for sharing this and curious to see how it plays out.
(01-04-2023, 03:42 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Wow, rumors started by both sides, daily. This is a full blown "negotiate through the media" approach that I don't remember the Mavs doing much during the Nelson days. I don't know if it's better or worse, but it's interesting.
Assuming that's what's going on (and it sure looks like it!), it's a good sign (if you want to see them keep Wood), because it would mean there's currently a deal to be made and hanging in the balance, and they just need to find how to get there.
I think both sides have motivation to get a deal done. We can't lose sight of the fact that Wood has never had his team decide to re-sign him when his contract ran out, and his ability to get numbers has never landed him a major commitment from any team. And we also can't lose sight of the fact that the Mavs can't afford to get Brunsoned again, both on a talent level and also as a "demonstration of level of front office competence" (or lack of same).
BUT - we also have to remember that Cuban (and his trainees, of course) have always been awful at negotiating. He really has shown no skill in getting a deal if he doesn't egregiously overpay. So it's not easy to expect they'll have the poker-playing skill to get to yes on a deal that is reasonable from a team perspective.
(01-04-2023, 04:16 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]If the Mavs come out of this with Wood on a 3+1 (TO) I will give Nico heaps and heaps of praise.
Thanks for sharing this and curious to see how it plays out.
This seems like a compromise for both sides. And a good deal for both sides.
I just want him locked up so the Mavs can focus on building around Doncic/Wood for the next 3 seasons.
I cant imagine how trading him midseason would be beneficial to us. I was full on team tank, but with injuries in the West and the winning streak, we can easily be a top 5 seed.
(01-04-2023, 11:07 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Not offended, just felt like it was a curious line of questioning for me. *shrug*
you do realize how defensive this sounds right
(01-04-2023, 04:05 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]He then goes on to outline how things have gone in recent games but points out the opponent winning % in the seven game win streak is .396.
I think this is an important point to remember. Not as a desire to be able to question if Wood is still lacking, but rather as a reminder that quite a few tough teams ARE coming up soon, and before the TDL.
So if this drags out several weeks or so (and it's about 5 weeks to the TDL) the Mavs should have an opportunity to see if his current progress is sustainable when facing the big boys (both literally, and metaphorically). Based on his demeanor in interviews, it seems like Wood isn't bothered by how this has unfolded, and is just working on being better, which is a good sign in lots of ways.
(01-04-2023, 04:24 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]you do realize how defensive this sounds right
It is defensive to ask if he is addressing me? It is actually clarifying.
(01-04-2023, 03:42 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Wow, rumors started by both sides, daily. This is a full blown "negotiate through the media" approach that I don't remember the Mavs doing much during the Nelson days. I don't know if it's better or worse, but it's interesting.
Or the media is just connecting the obvious dots.
(01-04-2023, 04:26 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]It is defensive to ask if he is addressing me? It is actually clarifying.
You do realize he was probably messing with you
