MavsBoard

(12-27-2022, 12:26 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/KirkSeriousFace/status/1607512076393807872?s=20&t=kZNU9rbNp7vC8JgrkWyzUQ

AMAZING. 

Great movie as well.

(12-27-2022, 11:48 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ] 
The best possible place we can acquire players is right before they have their breakout season. .

I have thought this before, but don't think it is quite right. There's another qualifier that is crucial imo, and that's the contract.

The situation to want is getting the player BOTH before the breakout season AND while he is being paid on a relatively-low salary with several more years to go on that current pay scale.

The problem with Wood is that if he does have a breakout season, you likely have to pay through the nose for helping to make that happen. There's no cost control. It may be a choice coming between overpay, and getting nothing for your work in his breakout. Nothing gained really, unless you can trade off Wood for very good assets before someone (not you) overpays him.

But you are right in the general observation that it's vital to start with players who are not as good, and then who get much better --- iow, gotta be experts in player development. But you need to harvest that gained value too.

What's missing in this latest discussion is the consideration that was a lot more prevalent in the off-season with the JB situation. Isn't the most plausible view of things right now that when Cuban looks at Wood right now, what he sees most of all is a juicy expiring contract? Why would he "screw that up" by 1) offering an extension, 2) trading him for long-term salary, or 3) making any genuine effort to re-sign him this off-season when Christmas will come in July for Cuban when Wood walks? If there was a way to bet on that scenario right now, I'd lay a grand on it, and I'm far from a rich man.

Moreover, I have to shake my head at the talent evaluation of some of our posters here. Wood is a big who 1) can stretch the defense with his three, 2) handle and drive, 3) create his own shot, 4) rebound, and 5) pass, and has recently shown 6) solid rim protection, 7) some switching ability, and 8) quite strong chemistry with Luka. That he wouldn't be worth $25 mil a year or so at least is likely a tremendous surprise to the few other big men in the league who could check five or more of those boxes. Carry on, tho. You're doing Mark's work for him!

(12-27-2022, 02:52 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]What's missing in this latest discussion is the consideration that was a lot more prevalent in the off-season with the JB situation. Isn't the most plausible view of things right now that when Cuban looks at Wood right now, what he sees most of all is a juicy expiring contract? Why would he "screw that up" by 1) offering an extension, 2) trading him for long-term salary, or 3) making any genuine effort to re-sign him this off-season when Christmas will come in July for Cuban when Wood walks? If there was a way to bet on that scenario right now, I'd lay a grand on it, and I'm far from a rich man.

Moreover, I have to shake my head at the talent evaluation of some of our posters here. Wood is a big who 1) can stretch the defense with his three, 2) handle and drive, 3) create his own shot, 4) rebound, and 5) pass, and has recently shown 6) solid rim protection, 7) some switching ability, and 8) quite strong chemistry with Luka. That he wouldn't be worth $25 mil a year or so at least is likely a tremendous surprise to the few other big men in the league who could check five or more of those boxes. Carry on, tho. You're doing Mark's work for him!

I'm confused.  If Cuban's only purpose is to shave salary, then why did we sign extensions to Dorian and Maxi?  Wood was traded for expiring contracts that actually amounted to less than Wood, so he didn't save a penny in that trade.  I realize there is a lot of frustration on how the Brunson situation was handled and Cuban is clearly not the same owner who spent his way out of poor trades befor the championship, but there is a lot of room between an owner who does not want spend nearly 200 million in salary plus well over 100 million in tax for a roster that is not a contender, and an owner that is trying to strip away any salary that he can.

I also find it interesting that NBA circles do not seem to share your evaluation of Wood.  Players on the last year of a 14 mil contract who are worth 25 mil cost a lot more than a crappy first while eating 4 crappy expirings.  It only takes one, but I doubt he is getting 25 mil this coming offseason.

(12-27-2022, 03:56 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I'm confused.  If Cuban's only purpose is to shave salary, then why did we sign extensions to Dorian and Maxi?  Wood was traded for expiring contracts that actually amounted to less than Wood, so he didn't save a penny in that trade.  I realize there is a lot of frustration on how the Brunson situation was handled and Cuban is clearly not the same owner who spent his way out of poor trades befor the championship, but there is a lot of room between an owner who does not want spend nearly 200 million in salary plus well over 100 million in tax for a roster that is not a contender, and an owner that is trying to strip away any salary that he can.

I also find it interesting that NBA circles do not seem to share your evaluation of Wood.  Players on the last year of a 14 mil contract who are worth 25 mil cost a lot more than a crappy first while eating 4 crappy expirings.  It only takes one, but I doubt he is getting 25 mil this coming offseason.

If he keeps playing the way he has? I bet Charlotte would pay him close to that. Also, never underestimate Orlando taking on another big. 


To the notion that few teams have the money to take Wood on after he completes his breakout season. I say, NY JUST said, ”hold my beer” to that thought last offseason. What team will do it this one?

Things change in valuation during an NBA season, what might be true now, can quickly change. This conversation is mainly staying in the realm of Wood continuing his recent breakthrough.

(12-27-2022, 01:04 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I have thought this before, but don't think it is quite right. There's another qualifier that is crucial imo, and that's the contract.

Instead, the situation you want is to getting the player BOTH before the breakout season AND while he is being paid on a relatively-low salary with several more years to go on that current pay scale.

The problem with Wood is that if he does have a breakout season, you likely have to pay through the nose for helping to make that happen. There's no cost control. It may be a choice coming between overpay, and getting nothing for your work in his breakout. Nothing gained really, unless you can trade off Wood for very good assets before someone (not you) overpays him.

But you are right in the general observation that it's vital to start with players who are not as good, and then who get much better --- iow, gotta be experts in player development. But you need to harvest that gained value too.

Sure, that can be a part of it, but the right fit will eventually cost you no matter when in their contract you acquire them. Best to acquire said player than not because of the contract status.

(12-27-2022, 02:52 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Moreover, I have to shake my head at the talent evaluation of some of our posters here. Wood is a big who 1) can stretch the defense with his three, 2) handle and drive, 3) create his own shot, 4) rebound, and 5) pass, and has recently shown 6) solid rim protection, 7) some switching ability, and 8) quite strong chemistry with Luka.

Yeah I laugh in my mind anytime anyone downplays the talent of Wood. Off the court? Who knows, their might be legitimate issues. On court he can be a space cadet sometimes, but he is by far the most talented player Luka has ever played with. I have said that for months and my tune is not changing.

(12-27-2022, 04:19 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]If he keeps playing the way he has? I bet Charlotte would pay him close to that. Also, never underestimate Orlando taking on another big. 


To the notion that few teams have the money to take Wood on after he completes his breakout season. I say, NY JUST said, ”hold my beer” to that thought last offseason. What team will do it this one?

Things change in valuation during an NBA season, what might be true now, can quickly change. This conversation is mainly staying in the realm of Wood continuing his recent breakthrough.

That's a huge if.  He started the season off playing out of his mind and came back to reality relatively quickly.  We are talking about a very small sample against relatively poor competition.  I'm not saying its not possible that he continues to improve and ends up being worth that by the end of the season.  To me the post read that its obvious he is worth that right now.  I don't see it, and I doubt the market does either.  I'm getting close to believing he is worth his max extension, and I believe we need to do one of three things before the TDL:

1.  Extend Wood
2.  Trade Wood
3.  Trade for Collins (which most likely will include number 2)

I'm not a fan of going past the TDL with the Wood situation undecided.  There is too much risk and he would have too much leverage.  I also don't really see us trading Powell/Bullock for Collins and re-signing Wood into a huge tax bill.  One reason I would prefer to send Wood out for Collins (if we are going that route) is because I would like to see Collins as a center, and that's much more likely with Wood going out.

(12-27-2022, 04:23 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Sure, that can be a part of it, but the right fit will eventually cost you no matter when in their contract you acquire them. Best to acquire said player than not because of the contract status.

Not exactly. There's a big difference between the "eventual" cost after a breakout season being right away, versus it arriving in 3-4 years after the breakout, during which time you have the player giving you large value on a relatively small contract.

Unless the breakout is attached to upcoming years where the player will be outplaying his contract, you really gain little in the roster-building equation by the breakout season, because there's no difference between re-signing your own FA who is worth X and signing some other team's FA who is also worth X. And we can't say that a player who is our own FA will necessarily re-sign here.

You have to navigate things to gain value that can last. In this case, you extend Wood (if we can assume he's worth 17M) or you gain your value by trading him for a similar-value player to what he has become, and let someone else deal with free agency.

(12-27-2022, 04:52 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]That's a huge if.

Everything we're talking about includes huge if's.

(12-27-2022, 04:52 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]That's a huge if.  He started the season off playing out of his mind and came back to reality relatively quickly.  We are talking about a very small sample against relatively poor competition.  I'm not saying its not possible that he continues to improve and ends up being worth that by the end of the season.  To me the post read that its obvious he is worth that right now.  I don't see it, and I doubt the market does either.  I'm getting close to believing he is worth his max extension, and I believe we need to do one of three things before the TDL:

1.  Extend Wood
2.  Trade Wood
3.  Trade for Collins (which most likely will include number 2)

I'm not a fan of going past the TDL with the Wood situation undecided.  There is too much risk and he would have too much leverage.  I also don't really see us trading Powell/Bullock for Collins and re-signing Wood into a huge tax bill.  One reason I would prefer to send Wood out for Collins (if we are going that route) is because I would like to see Collins as a center, and that's much more likely with Wood going out.

So the answer might be to offer Wood-McGee for Collins?

(12-27-2022, 05:03 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Not exactly. There's a big difference between the "eventual" cost after a breakout season being right away, versus it arriving in 3-4 years after the breakout, during which time you have the player giving you large value on a relatively small contract.

Unless the breakout is attached to upcoming years where the player will be outplaying his contract, you really gain little in the roster-building equation by the breakout season, because there's no difference between re-signing your own FA who is worth X and signing some other team's FA who is also worth X. And we can't say that a player who is our own FA will necessarily re-sign here.

You have to navigate things to gain value that can last. In this case, you extend Wood (if we can assume he's worth 17M) or you gain your value by trading him for a similar-value player to what he has become, and let someone else deal with free agency.

Contract doesn't matter if they don't break out. That is why getting them before the breakout regardless of if they're expiring or just signed a contract is the most important part.

I’ve seen the term “break-out” season being used.  Please look at his per minute production in Detroit and here this season and tell me where Wood is different.  Two teams have essentially given him away since then for very little return.  I don’t see a break out.  I don’t see a reason to believe anyone will pay him more than the $17mm he could get here on an extension.

(12-27-2022, 05:06 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]So the answer might be to offer Wood-McGee for Collins?

That was my suggestion in another thread.  I would be willing to throw in a second as well.  I'm getting the impression Wood is not going to be interested in an extension, and I am not excited by the prospect of trying to re-sign him when not only does he have all the leverage, but every dollar we are offering has tax consequences while the other bidders are operating with available cap space.  It put us in a terrible spot with Brunson, and this would be that all over again (although we are not also fighting a team that has been pinning for him for a while and has his Daddy).

(12-27-2022, 05:17 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Two teams have essentially given him away since then for very little return.

DET didn't give him away. He just signed as a free agent in HOU and was pretty desirable on the free agent market at that time based on my memory.

(12-27-2022, 05:05 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Everything we're talking about includes huge if's.

You and I might be, but I was originally responding to a post that implied he would obviously be worth at least 25 mil at the end of the season.  I am simply suggesting that we are probably not there yet.

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(12-27-2022, 05:22 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]DET didn't give him away. He just signed as a free agent in HOU and was pretty desirable on the free agent market at that time based on my memory.

They let him walk and then signed a similar player (Grant) to a bigger contract than he got.  Doesn't really seem like he was that desirable.

(12-27-2022, 04:44 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]...he is by far the most talented player Luka has ever played with. I have said that for months and my tune is not changing.

Mere hyperbole. As DS keeps reminding, the NBA evaluators clearly don't agree with this. There's way more to the game than just the ability to score or to accumulate stats.

(12-27-2022, 05:22 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]DET didn't give him away. He just signed as a free agent in HOU and was pretty desirable on the free agent market at that time based on my memory.

DS has just outlined for you exactly what really happened. Objectively, DET pretty much did give Wood away, just like HOU did to Dallas.

As a free agent, by all appearances there was little market for him. He was not one of the in-demand FA's. As the summer unfolded and he had no deal, it was assumed he would sign for the MLE.

HOU got in the mix very late in the game, and he was wrapped into an already-existing HOU-DET-POR trade to enable him to get a few more dollars in his new deal. But there doesn't appear to behave been any value added to DET for dropping him into that already-existing deal. Literally a giveaway.

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nba/p...682911002/

(12-27-2022, 05:22 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]They let him walk and then signed a similar player (Grant) to a bigger contract than he got.  Doesn't really seem like he was that desirable.

But the narrative being pushed is he was traded for less than nothing.