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I was suprised that Kidd didn´t bench him for the rest of the game after his performance in the 2nd quarter. If there ever was a legit moment to complain about his defense and rebounding it was during those minutes. The combination of him and Luka playing with zero effort was the main reason for the big Celtics run. Hard to defend as a team when two guys aren´t rotating or closing out.

(11-24-2022, 10:41 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]As illustrated in my game post, the two blowout wins really skew the +/- numbers for Wood.  Outside of those two games, his net impact is about net neutral (which underperforms the team and comes mostly against back-ups).

I disagree with your analysis here. 

Gm 17... ON: -8, OFF: -5, ON/OFF: -3
Gm 16... ON: -3, OFF: +2, ON/OFF: -5
Gm 15... ON: +21, OFF: +7, ON/OFF: +14
Gm 14... ON: +0, OFF: -9, ON/OFF: +9
Gm 13... ON: -4, OFF: +6, ON/OFF: -10
Gm 12... ON: N/A, OFF: -8, ON/OFF: +8
Gm 11... ON: N/A, OFF: -7, ON/OFF: +7
Gm 9... ON: -1, OFF: +3, ON/OFF: -4
Gm 8... ON: -6, OFF: +7, ON/OFF: -13
Gm 7... ON: -7, OFF: +10, ON/OFF: -17
Gm 6... ON: +7, OFF: +2, ON/OFF: +5
Gm 5... ON: -7, OFF: +1, ON/OFF: -8
Gm 4... ON: +2, OFF: +2, ON/OFF: +0
Gm 3... ON: +8, OFF: -10, ON/OFF: +18
Gm 2... ON: +22, OFF: +19, ON/OFF: +2
Gm 1... ON: +9, OFF: -11, ON/OFF: +20

The game two blowout was NOT a big positive for his on/off. And when you look through the season there is of course noise, but there is a an arrow that points to Wood's minutes being better than not. AND when you look at each specific game you can see that in most of his negative on/off games it is almost always because he shared the court with someone who was a real drag on the numbers.  Wood has had TWO "bad" games IMO this year, games 7 and 8 (versus UTA and TOR).

(11-24-2022, 10:41 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]The easy explanation is Wood makes a lot of mistakes.  The coach would like him to make fewer mistakes. 

IF that is the case, then it means that Kidd is NOT consistent as a coach and his enforcement. Because I can see other players easily make as many poor plays and rotations etc. If this is the case then Wood is being treated to a standard that the other (non-Luka) players are not being held to. That's my complaint. 

AND Kidd is failing to see the big picture, that Wood (even if he is making a ton of mistakes) is still helping the team win. And that is the most important thing. It is the same reason Kidd plays Luka and let's him get away with horrible, horrible team play at times.

I mean I’m probably just a smooth brain cabbage, but outside of a few games there has been no effort to involve Wood in the offense. Some games he has only gotten a few shots. Weird minutes. Has had to do so much by himself without Luka on the court. Seems like Spencer doesn’t prioritize getting him the ball like Luka. For that reason, on/off numbers have little importance to me.

I too believe Luka - Green - DFS - Maxi - Wood with Spencer as 6th man is the best path forward for many reasons. Being scared to play Wood as the lone big is not one of those reasons.

(11-24-2022, 11:00 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I disagree with your analysis here. 

Gm 17... ON: -8, OFF: -5, ON/OFF: -3
Gm 16... ON: -3, OFF: +2, ON/OFF: -5
Gm 15... ON: +21, OFF: +7, ON/OFF: +14
Gm 14... ON: +0, OFF: -9, ON/OFF: +9
Gm 13... ON: -4, OFF: +6, ON/OFF: -10
Gm 12... ON: N/A, OFF: -8, ON/OFF: +8
Gm 11... ON: N/A, OFF: -7, ON/OFF: +7
Gm 9... ON: -1, OFF: +3, ON/OFF: -4
Gm 8... ON: -6, OFF: +7, ON/OFF: -13
Gm 7... ON: -7, OFF: +10, ON/OFF: -17
Gm 6... ON: +7, OFF: +2, ON/OFF: +5
Gm 5... ON: -7, OFF: +1, ON/OFF: -8
Gm 4... ON: +2, OFF: +2, ON/OFF: +0
Gm 3... ON: +8, OFF: -10, ON/OFF: +18
Gm 2... ON: +22, OFF: +19, ON/OFF: +2
Gm 1... ON: +9, OFF: -11, ON/OFF: +20

The game two blowout was NOT a big positive for his on/off. And when you look through the season there is of course noise, but there is a an arrow that points to Wood's minutes being better than not. AND when you look at each specific game you can see that in most of his negative on/off games it is almost always because he shared the court with someone who was a real drag on the numbers.  Wood has had TWO "bad" games IMO this year, games 7 and 8 (versus UTA and TOR).

There is a huge difference in the way we are approaching this.  I'm just looking at Wood's On-Court contribution and yes, 90% of his positive on-court contribution came in games two and fifteen (the blowouts).  

Your analysis nets in the performance of the players Wood plays instead of when he's in the game.  So, it drags in the performances of McGee, Powell, Maxi and DFS.  McGee and DFS are negative on-court so far this year and Maxi is a net negative On-minus-Off and barely positive On.  If you want to argue Wood is better than the alternatives, your net numbers say that.  If you want to know how the team does when he's on the court, you look at the numbers below (which are the numbers I've used in all of my posts today).

Gm 17... ON: -8
Gm 16... ON: -3
Gm 15... ON: +21
Gm 14... ON: +0
Gm 13... ON: -4
Gm 12... ON: N/A
Gm 11... ON: N/A
Gm 9... ON: -1
Gm 8... ON: -6
Gm 7... ON: -7
Gm 6... ON: +7
Gm 5... ON: -7
Gm 4... ON: +2
Gm 3... ON: +8
Gm 2... ON: +22
Gm 1... ON: +9

(11-24-2022, 11:56 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]There is a huge difference in the way we are approaching this.  I'm just looking at Wood's On-Court contribution

We are. I think on/off is the way to look at this. "On" only is not enough.

(11-24-2022, 12:51 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]"On" only is not enough.

Sure it is.  It just depends on the conversation you are having.  If the conversation is ‘Wood deserves more time because he’s better than the alternatives’, then you’d want to net the “On” against the “Off”.  If the conversation is ‘Wood’s on-court contribution hasn’t been that great lately and the overall season-long impact is skewed positively by two uncompetitive games’, then “On” is all you need.  

Who he’s doing this against actually does matter to the second conversation above.  If his gross on-court performance hasn’t been all that beneficial against subs, do we expect it to improve against starters?  As I said in posts earlier today, I’m all for moving Wood to the starting lineup.  What we are doing currently, as you’ve pointed out, isn’t working.  But, if Kidd simply swaps Wood for Powell, I predict it won’t go well.  We’ll know something about how much Kidd wants this to work by watching to see if other changes accompany the addition of Wood to the starting lineup.

DP or McGee starting has its share of negatives. Lots of it actually, but with the case of DP we're so used to having his inadequate play that it's now okay to be happy with hustle and disregard any rim protection whatsoever. DP is playing against starters and it shows. How bad would Wood be against starters when the bar is so low?

But my preference is for Wood not to start, simply because the Mavs would need an offensive punch later in the first half when Luka steps off from the pedal a bit, or rests on the bench. I am okay with this, as long as Wood gets his minutes.

As for the Mavs..
Wood has mentioned he is deserving of a starting role.
If he feels so strongly about this, then that's going to factor in on what the Mavs should do.

* If the plan is to trade Wood, alright, keeping him off the bench is understood. Mavs disregard Wood and that's okay, team strategy comes first.
* If the plan is let him walk, then I understand this too, the Mavs just wasted a FRP for a rental -- it's a move so disappointing but not surprising of the Mavs.
* If the plan is to retain him, then goodluck with that. Keeping him on the bench when he wants to start is more than half a reason for him walking.

(11-24-2022, 07:04 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]Sure it is.  It just depends on the conversation you are having.  If the conversation is ‘Wood deserves more time because he’s better than the alternatives’, then you’d want to net the “On” against the “Off”.  If the conversation is ‘Wood’s on-court contribution hasn’t been that great lately and the overall season-long impact is skewed positively by two uncompetitive games’, then “On” is all you need.  

Who he’s doing this against actually does matter to the second conversation above.  If his gross on-court performance hasn’t been all that beneficial against subs, do we expect it to improve against starters?  As I said in posts earlier today, I’m all for moving Wood to the starting lineup.  What we are doing currently, as you’ve pointed out, isn’t working.  But, if Kidd simply swaps Wood for Powell, I predict it won’t go well.  We’ll know something about how much Kidd wants this to work by watching to see if other changes accompany the addition of Wood to the starting lineup.

But there are four other players WITH Wood everytime he plays...it is not his fault if the bench players lay an egg when he is in. So on/off is the only truly helpful metric here because it rates him relative to other team options. 

Is the team better off with Wood playing or with him sitting? That is the singular question I want to know the answer to and on/off gives us the closest approximation of that.

(11-24-2022, 07:46 PM)Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo Wrote: [ -> ]as long as Wood gets his minutes

This is it, this is everything. Play your best players!

(11-24-2022, 08:17 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]But there are four other players WITH Wood everytime he plays...it is not his fault if the bench players lay an egg when he is in. So on/off is the only truly helpful metric here because it rates him relative to other team options. 

And, since Wood has only played half of the team's minutes this season, half of his net number comes from the quality of player who subs in for him.  Maxi, Dorian and McGee have not been good in On-minus-Off.  Their lack of effectiveness actually helps Wood's On-minus-Off by comparison.  But, it doesn't tell you if Wood is good in isolation.  It tells you Wood is good compared to.  

BTW, there are four other players WITH Wood in his On-minus-Off number (the On part) AND there are four other players WITH Maxi/DFS/McGee/Powell when Wood is sitting (the Off part).  Neither number escapes the issue you are trying to assign to On Court.

(11-24-2022, 07:46 PM)Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo Wrote: [ -> ]* If the plan is to trade Wood, alright, keeping him off the bench is understood. Mavs disregard Wood and that's okay, team strategy comes first.
* If the plan is let him walk, then I understand this too, the Mavs just wasted a FRP for a rental -- it's a move so disappointing but not surprising of the Mavs.
* If the plan is to retain him, then goodluck with that. Keeping him on the bench when he wants to start is more than half a reason for him walking.

I am not in the camp of assuming Wood is a must-keep, but I strongly believe that his future will be settled (one way or the other) long before free agency. I would wager that Wood's future as a Mav will get completely settled by the trade deadline - either he will sign an extension before the deadline, or he will get traded.

I don't think anything has happened yet that is any different from normal coach-team-player dynamics, so I don't see any obstacles to that extension, except for whether he plays well enough to merit what he wants. But whatever happens, with no extension I don't think the Mavs will test their luck again in free agency with Wood.

What’s going on here?

https://twitter.com/grantafseth/status/1...28321?s=46&t=KNCgtO1ioLidigGlDuNgFw

Getting a big with Woods skills is going to be difficult. There is Jokic, Embiid, Sabonis, those have true skills around the rim, there are only a few more with natural all-around game around the rim. Yes, these examples are all better than Wood. But Woods skills are so much better than any other big we had since Luka joined Mavs and except Nowitzki. It gives a completely new dimension to the team, and it's obvious to see how much Luka enjoys a big that actually has the fluent natural feeling for the game. What we now are lacking are some more complex plays involving Wood and Luka. Those were never treath with KP as he just couldnt drive to the basket without fumbling. So far we have only seen simple postups or pick and roll involving Luka and Wood. But the skills of Luka and Wood allow for some really complex plays and I really hope we will see that going forward. We see that with Jokic and Murray for instance, and I would love to see Wood with the ball where then Luka can get it from the screen to attack the rim, or Wood driving or passing to shooters if defense collapses on Luka.

IMO, there is another dimension that Wood can reach with this team and Luka, that havent seen at all. But with KP, it was obvious there were no possible further dimensions and expansion of plays to reach, as the true limitation were the lack of certain skills. With Wood, we haven't reached the top at all, and there is so much more that can be achieved.

(11-25-2022, 02:13 AM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]What’s going on here?

https://twitter.com/grantafseth/status/1...28321?s=46&t=KNCgtO1ioLidigGlDuNgFw

What's going on here?

https://twitter.com/GrantAfseth/status/1...5644880896

I told y'all Killian would be an upgrade to THJ and RB!!!

Maybe Curry should come off the bench and play like 20 mins a game.

https://twitter.com/mavs_ffl/status/1596...34304?s=46&t=u7w59Tc78QQeZQdLku6IAQ

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