(12-02-2022, 03:39 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]False.
Statistical analysis of the history of the draft show that the pick is 55% a star, solid player, or role player, while 45% a bust.
Better than a 50/50 chance that player is in your rotation in the future. That is not small.
I find that hard to believe. I guess it depends on the concept of role player. From my perspective, in order for a draft pick to be of significant value, they need to be worth at least MLE value prior to their second contract. I'm wondering if the "role player" definition above equates to that?
(12-02-2022, 04:03 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Ok, agreed.
SO, now you understand why some people think "attaching the course of the team to Wood" (or however @"F Gump" put it) is the way forward. It's only a dumb thought if there's something to lose.
We aren't bad enough though to ensure we keep our pick this year.
If you want to salvage the season, I think you trade THJ and redistribute his minutes to Josh/Kemba/Hardy/Wood.
If you want to tank the season, trade Dinwiddie. Then think about trading THJ, Bullock, Josh, DFS, Wood. Josh and DFS only if you can get future picks and get off of other unfavorable salaries (Bertans).
(12-02-2022, 04:11 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]We aren't bad enough though to ensure we keep our pick this year.
Yeah, I sure hope not.
Failure to convey that pick and (finally) get that Porzingis deal over and done with is about the worst season outcome I can imagine.
(12-02-2022, 04:12 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, I sure hope not.
Failure to convey that pick and (finally) get that Porzingis deal over and done with is about the worst season outcome I can imagine.
Getting a top pick in this years draft could change the outlook of the team. We aren't close to a championship team nor can we make a few moves to make this a championship so tanking seems the most logical step towards progress. Conveying a mid-round first to New York so that we can bundle three future picks and picks swaps for another KP style move, seems like the worst outcome.
(12-02-2022, 03:51 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I think you're absolutely, 100% right about this.
The question is, SHOULD this have been their approach?
If Cuban has decided "I'm not paying to waive players to clear room to sign someone," now what? What alternatives did they have?
One part of the equation to understand is that the default position they faced was no roster slots (if JB had returned, they would be one over, since they had committed to Pinson!) - and that meant no roster room for even the FRP. No one wanted any of those 4 players to just give them away.
One positive note about Pinson, btw - as stupid as it is to waste a slot for him to be a cheerleader, at least he's a cheaper alternative than Bobi. I think that was their rationale. Of course, why they feel like they
must have a cheerleader eating up a roster slot in the first place, that part is not as easy to justify.
(12-02-2022, 02:39 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]By now, even the MBT know they suck at drafting.
(12-02-2022, 04:14 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Getting a top pick in this years draft could change the outlook of the team. We aren't close to a championship team nor can we make a few moves to make this a championship so tanking seems the most logical step towards progress. Conveying a mid-round first to New York so that we can bundle three future picks and picks swaps for another KP style move, seems like the worst outcome.
Now, you're confusing me, for real.
I get that the odds change based on the pick range, but it still feels like you're arguing just to argue.
The role players aren't a lost cause. They're just role players. If (for example) Wood proved to be much closer to what the more optimistic among us hope, the entire roster would look much better overnight, imo. I mean, look how much worse
losing one player has made things.
And regardless of whether or not you agree, there is literally no chance they're going to tank, so it's all moot.
I'm sorry, but I think it's for the best to get this stupid, awful KP thing 100% in the past, regardless of whether or not they're going to do smart things with the picks moving forward.
(12-02-2022, 04:25 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Now, you're confusing me, for real.
I get that the odds change based on the pick range, but it still feels like you're arguing just to argue.
The role players aren't a lost cause. They're just role players. If (for example) Wood proved to be much closer to what the more optimistic among us hope, the entire roster would look much better overnight, imo. I mean, look how much worse losing one player has made things.
And regardless of whether or not you agree, there is literally no chance they're going to tank, so it's all moot.
I'm sorry, but I think it's for the best to get this stupid, awful KP think 100% in the past, regardless of whether or not they're going to do smart things with the picks moving forward.
But a top 8 pick this year is worth much more than two projected late picks in 2024/2026, so I don´t get this "get it over with argument". Even if you miss out on Wembanyama/Scoot and do not want the Thompsons, Whitmore, Whitehead, Miller or Smith Jr. I bet that teams rank these guys MUCH higher than any of these future picks that become available to us for a trade.
Especially since you get them NOW as opposed to a 2026 player. GMs need to win sooner than later. Nobody is going to pat you on the back for the 2026 pick turning into a superstar in 2028, when you got fired in 2025. Make a pick this year (with 7-8 projected All-Stars), dump the soon-to-be-over-the-hill or/and injury prone $180M catastrophe waiting to happen on the Mavs, watch the rookie put up 18/5/5 and you look like the genius.
There's a lot of frustration, justifiably so, over what is being built with a player like Luka here (for now).
But the solutions being discussed, it's all a bunch of 'cart before the horse' stuff.
The thing in the way is not the roster, but rather the evaluating and negotiating. There is nothing helpful that can be done, if you don't have an EXPERT ability to evaluate and negotiate. That's at the core of everything that is wrong here -- and you don't fix that by trying to find the deal or the pick.
This summer they made some moves to help the team - and it was just junk. Last summer, same. Opportunity wasted. And wasted. And some of it makes the roster-building job even harder going forward.
You fix that by finding the PERSON. The Expert. And you hire him and get out of the way. Until then, it's going to be a really rough ride.
(12-02-2022, 04:25 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Now, you're confusing me, for real.
I get that the odds change based on the pick range, but it still feels like you're arguing just to argue.
The role players aren't a lost cause. They're just role players. If (for example) Wood proved to be much closer to what the more optimistic among us hope, the entire roster would look much better overnight, imo. I mean, look how much worse losing one player has made things.
And regardless of whether or not you agree, there is literally no chance they're going to tank, so it's all moot.
I'm sorry, but I think it's for the best to get this stupid, awful KP thing 100% in the past, regardless of whether or not they're going to do smart things with the picks moving forward.
A discussion isn't arguing my dude. There are some great prospects in this draft. Tanking would be smart unless you love this roster and are ready to roll with it next year too.
We aren't going to be past KP until Bertans is gone. So we have at least another season.
(12-02-2022, 03:43 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]"they always knew Wood was probably just going to bust out here and walk"
I haven't really been too involved in this convo but I certainly don't feel this way. I think they went after him on an expiring to give him an audition for an extension OR they felt he is talented enough to be a trade piece at the deadline. If they let Wood walk for nothing then that would be a huge let down.
(12-02-2022, 04:37 PM)Mavs2021 Wrote: [ -> ]But a top 8 pick this year is worth much more than two projected late picks in 2024/2026, so I don´t get this "get it over with argument".
Once we convey the pick this year both those picks (and potentially 2028) will be moved for more immediate help. That's why I want the pick to convey.
(12-02-2022, 03:55 PM)vfromlmf Wrote: [ -> ]Wood got 17 minutes in the one point loss to Denver. Media and Twitter went nuts: Why is Wood not playing?!
Since then, over the last 5 games, Wood has averaged 30 minutes and "Dallas is 1-4 and 3rd worst defensive team in the NBA, allowing 121.3 per 100 possessions. Detroit is really bad, struggled to defend basic sets in first half, but Dallas 61 first half point, or what would be 122 def rtg." (Iztok) and Wood is -41 plus/minus.
And in those 5 games the Mavs D has been slightly better with Wood playing than not.
(12-02-2022, 05:24 PM)IamDougieFresh Wrote: [ -> ]Free Christian Wood.
I know he's been bad lately but I don't think waiving him is the answer.
(12-02-2022, 04:07 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I guess it depends on the concept of role player.
They did a very simple career PPG+RPG+APG between 10 and 15. So if a player averaged for their career 7 ppg, 2 rpg, 2apg they would be considered a "role player" (albeit low-end by this metric).
JG is 4.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.0 apg so far, so at 7.6 he would be considered a "bust" by this metric. This season alone he is 6.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.9 ast...so at 9.9 this season he is still in "bust" territory.
(12-02-2022, 05:06 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]There's a lot of frustration, justifiably so, over what is being built with a player like Luka here (for now).
But the solutions being discussed, it's all a bunch of 'cart before the horse' stuff.
The thing in the way is not the roster, but rather the evaluating and negotiating. There is nothing helpful that can be done, if you don't have an EXPERT ability to evaluate and negotiate. That's at the core of everything that is wrong here -- and you don't fix that by trying to find the deal or the pick.
This summer they made some moves to help the team - and it was just junk. Last summer, same. Opportunity wasted. And wasted. And some of it makes the roster-building job even harder going forward.
You fix that by finding the PERSON. The Expert. And you hire him and get out of the way. Until then, it's going to be a really rough ride.
I disagree. Not with your logic, but with the idea that it’s pointless to discuss how players or assets are handled until the situation at the top (which I agree, is flawed) is fixed.
That is not gonna happen while Mark Cuban is alive.
So, if/when I get to the point where I’m not interested in discussing any other aspect of Mavs fandom due to the situation at the top (and I admit, this COULD happen) I doubt I will spend even one second more discussing things here. That would be the point when I would simply stop being a Mavericks fan. there is no fixing that.
Killer, Sorry this threat took off. I think it was in this thread earlier that you are pretty adamant that Wood is a center. To be honest, I am not sure where I fall on this. Although, in all liklihood I really don't expect Wood here long anyway. But I was wonder how you would think he would work with a Myles Turner where you could funnel drivers to Turner. Could Wood work on that setup? I don't expect we have the assets for Turner though.
Here is a Wood trade I was thinking about. Wood and Powell to Chicago for Vucevic. Maybe they throw in Goran too. Chicago gets a player better fit for their up tempo style. Dallas gets to try out Vucevic who may be more reliable. Not ideal for either team but both teams may want to make a change.
(12-02-2022, 06:58 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Killer, Sorry this threat took off. I think it was in this thread earlier that you are pretty adamant that Wood is a center. To be honest, I am not sure where I fall on this. Although, in all liklihood I really don't expect Wood here long anyway. But I was wonder how you would think he would work with a Myles Turner where you could funnel drivers to Turner. Could Wood work on that setup? I don't expect we have the assets for Turner though.
Here is a Wood trade I was thinking about. Wood and Powell to Chicago for Vucevic. Maybe they throw in Goran too. Chicago gets a player better fit for their up tempo style. Dallas gets to try out Vucevic who may be more reliable. Not ideal for either team but both teams may want to make a change.
I mean, it’s only my opinion, but I guess my answer would be better, because Turner is a better player than those he’s trying play next to right now? Ultimately, it’s not the way I’d go (though I might be talked into trading Wood n the package FOR Turner).
But, that’s just me. I’m a one-big sort of dude. I know @"ItsGoTime" and @"dirkfansince1998" would both love to try that tandem. @"DanSchwartzgan" too, probs.