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Could we try to set it up that Hardaway gets most of his minutes with Luka and Bertans gets his minutes with Dinwiddie?  Din and Bertans seem to have a good connection.  

I am trying to see how we can improve the Din only bench minutes.    It is a tricky mix trying to get enough scoring on the court when the ball is not stuck in Dinwiddie's hands all the position vs having a unit that can defend well.   Not sure what the answer is there.

(11-30-2022, 01:30 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]To ME, this, combined with the general idea that Dinwiddie's individual counting stats are positive, SCREAM "bring him off the bench."

It has been the obvious move IMO for most of the season. I do not get why the coaching staff has dug in, refusing to see the light. 

Luka
THJ/JG
DFS
Maxi
Wood

Should be the starting five.

SD
JG/THJ
RB
DP

Should be the main bench guys.

(11-30-2022, 01:43 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]Could we try to set it up that Hardaway gets most of his minutes with Luka and Bertans gets his minutes with Dinwiddie?  Din and Bertans seem to have a good connection.  

I am trying to see how we can improve the Din only bench minutes.    It is a tricky mix trying to get enough scoring on the court when the ball is not stuck in Dinwiddie's hands all the position vs having a unit that can defend well.   Not sure what the answer is there.

Imo, THIS is the right way of approaching things. Not the specific ideas (although I think they're good ideas and might be the way to go) but the idea that how players fit together is what matters more than simply playing the 5 players together who we think are "good." 

Now, constructing your roster in such a way where your best players actually fit is key, of course, which is what I've been screaming for three years. BUT, it's too late for that this season, so more attention should be paid to synergy, as you suggest.

(11-30-2022, 01:26 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I don't know, man. It's tough to explain, for sure, but...MY eyes tell me that pretty much every time Dinwiddie goes for a stretch on-ball he does some good things but the team seems to lose ground on the scoreboard. 

Kamm isn't exactly coming out of left field on this one, imo. I can't point to a number that proves it (other than the ones he just posted about the two-man combos, which seem significant) but intuition wise it sure seems like Dinwiddie is a sizable portion of what's not working to me. 

Bullock and THJ are part of it too, obviously, but with them it's really just a matter of insane shooting slumps. That can change (and almost has to, right?), but...if this is Dinwiddie playing well and it's not contributing to success on the court then it must be something about play style...something about his teammates not being able to understand what he's going to do out there...something systemic. If so, that has the possibility of going even more south if/when those efficient numbers start to drop.

I would argue Bullock and Timmy's issues go beyond shooting slumps.  They have both been bad on defense as well.  Not sure that is correctable for Timmy.  I don't know what Bullock's deal is.  I think his defense was overrated last year, but it was significantly better than what he is doing now.  Maybe he is still recovering from being overworked, which would be a good argument for him getting less minutes right now anyways.

As for Dinwiddie's on/off numbers being systemic, its possible.  It is also very possible that his on/off woes are noise.  We already know he has been saddled playing with struggling starters as well as playing all minutes without Luka, but it could also be luck.  It could be that his teammates happen to be shooting poorly and his opponents happen to be shooting well when he is on the court.  There is a lot of variance in three point shooting, and that applies to the other guys on the court as well.  Just as we expect Bullock and Timmy to shoot better as time goes on, maybe Dinwiddie's luck will even out regarding the other 9 players on the court shooting.

(11-30-2022, 01:53 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Luka
THJ/JG
DFS
Maxi
Wood

Should be the starting five.

Totally agree, only for me the /JG would be next to the trio of DFS, Kleber and Wood.

(11-30-2022, 01:53 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]It has been the obvious move IMO for most of the season. I do not get why the coaching staff has dug in, refusing to see the light. 

Luka
THJ/JG
DFS
Maxi
Wood

Should be the starting five.

SD
JG/THJ
RB
DP

Should be the main bench guys.

I have been on board with this for a while, although the Wood to starting lineup is a harder argument after his last couple of games.

(11-30-2022, 01:58 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]As for Dinwiddie's on/off numbers being systemic, its possible.  It is also very possible that his on/off woes are noise.

Yeah, but I'm not leaning on the numbers, that's the thing. I'm saying they make sense to me based on what I'm seeing. I know that's hard to reconcile because you don't feel like you're seeing the same thing and because I can't really explain why I feel the way I do, but I'm telling you...to me, there's just something not quite right about how Dinwiddie is being used this season. It's cool if you disagree. 

And, I'm not meaning that as a criticism of him, necessarily. Take Brunson, for example: did he get better last year, or did he simply learn how to play with Luka at a higher level? Sometimes it can be hard for these on-ball players to play off-ball, even when they're hitting shots off the catch and creating efficiency numbers that look good at a glance. 

I think the best way of stating my opinion might be this: I think Dinwiddie is doing Dinwiddie stuff pretty damn well so far, maybe even better than expected when it comes to shooting, BUT not nearly well enough to make up for Brunson being gone on this team. I think it's a question of fit more than anything. 

Further, I miss having the 6th man version of Dinwiddie - not because I don't think he's a good enough player to start (somewhere), but because the absence of that bench player (from last season) is a significant and profound loss, imo.

(11-30-2022, 01:56 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]the idea that how players fit together is what matters more than simply playing the 5 players together who we think are "good." 

Totally agree here which is why I agree with general consensus that Dinwiddie is better suited on the bench and we start the Maxi/Wood combo but I think I would say is that we ALL expected Dinwiddie to start this year after Brunson left not because we thought he was one of the best 5 players but because last year showed us how having another ball handler next to Luka raised the ceiling of the team.  I think this year is showing us that there is sooooo much nuance to that idea and also that there is a ton of ways to play good basketball around Luka.  I fully support moving Dinwiddie to the bench, I think I disagree with the idea that he's playing bad basketball or playing selfish.  Everyone can see our roster doesn't have many scorers and Dinwiddie is very vocal about how that is his role and I'm sure the coaches are telling him that too so I'm not going to fault his style of play but also agree that we can find other ways to maximize it.

(11-30-2022, 12:57 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I do not. 82games usually has something, but they have no stats for this season. 

But I can tell you this:

Basically every Mav player's worst two-man lineup is with SD. 

Here is DFS with and without SD:



Almost every Mav looks the same. Their minutes without SD are REALLY good.

I may be looking at different numbers than you, but the one exception I see is that Powell's numbers are actually better with Dinwiddie.

(11-30-2022, 02:04 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I have been on board with this for a while, although the Wood to starting lineup is a harder argument after his last couple of games.

If I'm being totally honest, it isn't so much the Powell/Kleber/Wood trio I'm having a problem with, lately. I think it's important to find a way those three are used so that McGee isn't in the rotation by necessity, and it seems like they're working on that. If starting Powell makes the most sense to them, I'm fine with it. 

What I, personally, feel strongly about is that Hardaway is a better fit with Luka than Dinwiddie, and that Green, right now, is just a flat-out better fit with anyone on any team than Bullock.

(11-30-2022, 02:05 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]we ALL expected Dinwiddie to start this year after Brunson left

Not me, said the bee. 

I expected another ball-handler at that time, for sure. BUT, once it became clear that the team was rolling with a three guard rotation of Luka, Dinwiddie and Hardaway, with no ball-handler coming, I started screaming for THJ to start. You can go back and check. 

And again, it's as much about losing "6th man Dinwiddie" as it is about doing what works best for Luka/Hardaway, imo. 

Wood and Hardaway are just not suited for my paradigm of what a 6th man (shot in the arm, game-changing style of bench player) is. Both can have nights when they seem like that in theory (Hardaway hasn't had one game like that this season, however) but neither of them have the on-ball "agency" that a guy like Dinwiddie does. He's the closest thing they have here to JET, Lou Williams, Clarkson, etc, etc. He's VERY GOOD in that role, imo, and it's not a consolation prize given to the 6th best player to me - it's an important role that a good team needs to have locked down. 

Dinwiddie is a better basketball player than Hardaway, but if Hardaway is a MUCH better version of himself as a starter, getting in rhythm playing next to Luka, and Dinwiddie is more effective coming in fresh to give Luka a blow and not having to navigate bouncing from on-ball to off constantly, then I think this is a no-brainer.

(11-30-2022, 01:18 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I'm just not seeing this.  How is his offense at the expense of team efficiency?  He has a TS of 60%.  He is also dishing out 5 assists a game with a good assist to turnover ratio.  My eye test tells me its other guys hurting the team (McGee, Bullock, Timmy, Maxi on offense).

My instinct sees it this way also.  He performs a supposedly vital function both with Luka and without.  His stats individually are really good.  But, you can’t discount the On/Off stuff based just on the eye-test.

SD has a negative net rating with every single regular (even Green) except one.  That one, who SD seems to work with, is Powell (who saw that coming as you read that sentence) and it is pretty massively positive.  This may be one of those times when you have to be careful about the message netting on vs. off is sending.  

Some of SD’s bad NET rating is because this team isn’t that good without Luka and who plays PG when Luka sits?  SD.  But even those numbers are strange.  You’d expect the O numbers for Luka w/o SD to be strong (and they are at 124).  But, how in the world is the D number 107 when Luka is w/o SD?  Are we really going to give Luka credit for that (and SD blame), or does it relate more to who plays with who.

Two other oddities.  SD plays better in losses in terms of his individual numbers (find it in his splits for wins and losses at B-Ref).  HOWEVER, five of his six worst On minus Off performances this year have been in losses (which backs up Kamm’s “fools gold” theory).  So, he kills it individually in losses, but the team still loses.  Is that on SD?  Is good play from him ‘causing’ the loss?  Or, is something else bad going on elsewhere in the lineup and we lose despite his good play.

(11-30-2022, 02:24 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: [ -> ]My instinct sees it this way also.  He performs a supposedly vital function both with Luka and without.  His stats individually are really good.  But, you can’t discount the On/Off stuff based just on the eye-test.

SD has a negative net rating with every single regular (even Green) except one.  That one, who SD seems to work with, is Powell (who saw that coming as you read that sentence) and it is pretty massively positive.  This may be one of those times when you have to be careful about the message netting on vs. off is sending.  

Some of SD’s bad NET rating is because this team isn’t that good without Luka and who plays PG when Luka sits?  SD.  But even those numbers are strange.  You’d expect the O numbers for Luka w/o SD to be strong (and they are at 124).  But, how in the world is the D number 107 when Luka is w/o SD?  Are we really going to give Luka credit for that (and SD blame), or does it relate more to who plays with who.

Two other oddities.  SD plays better in losses in terms of his individual numbers (find it in his splits for wins and losses at B-Ref).  HOWEVER, five of his six worst On minus Off performances this year have been in losses (which backs up Kamm’s “fools gold” theory).  So, he kills it individually in losses, but the team still loses.  Is that on SD?  Is good play from him ‘causing’ the loss?  Or, is something else bad going on elsewhere in the lineup and we lose despite his good play.

LOADS of great thoughts here, and all with an open mind. 

It's probably a bit early to make hard conclusions, but my current takeaway is about fit and synergy. I thought that would be a problem before the season, to be transparent, so there might be some confirmation bias at work here. I admit it. But, I'm sorry, I just do not think it's a coincidence that they found a way to win down the stretch of the game Dinwiddie was ejected from. In a separate but related point, I also don't think it's a coincidence that THJ's first good game of the entire season happened on his second night in the starting lineup.

(11-30-2022, 02:32 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]LOADS of great thoughts here, and all with an open mind. 

It's probably a bit early to make hard conclusions, but my current takeaway is about fit and synergy. I thought that would be a problem before the season, to be transparent, so there might be some confirmation bias at work here. I admit it. But, I'm sorry, I just do not think it's a coincidence that they found a way to win down the stretch of the game Dinwiddie was ejected from. In a separate but related point, I also don't think it's a coincidence that THJ's first good game of the entire season happened on his second night in the starting lineup.

Actually, when Dinwiddie went out the team looked completely lost.  I think the biggest reasons we won that game was that we got an extra 5 minutes of Luka god mode with Din out (not something we can continually repeat) and Green finished the game (something we can repeat).  

I agree its not surprising that Timmy played better when starting.  I wonder if a similar confidence boost would help Wood out of his recent funk.  I wonder if we will ever find out.

(11-30-2022, 01:53 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]It has been the obvious move IMO for most of the season. I do not get why the coaching staff has dug in, refusing to see the light. 

Luka
THJ/JG
DFS
Maxi
Wood

Should be the starting five.

SD
JG/THJ
RB
DP

Should be the main bench guys.

I agree and I'm pretty sure I said as much before game 2 or 3. That's what makes this season so frustrating for me personally.

(11-30-2022, 02:45 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]Actually, when Dinwiddie went out the team looked completely lost.

Until Luka came back, I agree. 

My point wasn't that it didn't suck to have one of only two competent ball-handlers on the team get thrown out, it was that Kidd wasn't able to play Dinwiddie during the last 5 minutes.

(11-30-2022, 02:09 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I may be looking at different numbers than you, but the one exception I see is that Powell's numbers are actually better with Dinwiddie.

Correct....me saying "basically every" was me saying "almost everyone." 

So yes DP+SD has been the one bright spot for SD, hence why I want SD and DP moved to the bench together.

In my opinion the SD situation comes down to this. Not good enough on defense to play next to Luka. Not good enough on offense to be the sole creator when Luka is on the bench. No idea how to solve this without major roster moves.

(11-30-2022, 03:31 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]In my opinion the SD situation comes down to this. Not good enough on defense to play next to Luka. Not good enough on offense to be the sole creator when Luka is on the bench. No idea how to solve this without major roster moves.

That would be the "best construction" of the situation IMO.

Eventually we will start playing our second best players and he will bring us titles along with Luka.  Let's just hope we bring him along faster than Josh Green.