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I have a feeling that folks wanting to see a lot of Hardy this year are going to be frustrated by rotation decisions this year...I just don't see what the Seth Curry signing was other than a signal that they don't think Hardy is there just yet.

(For the record, I'd much rather see Hardy get all those bench minutes, I just have a feeling...)

(09-27-2023, 09:55 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]I have a feeling that folks wanting to see a lot of Hardy this year are going to be frustrated by rotation decisions this year...I just don't see what the Seth Curry signing was other than a signal that they don't think Hardy is there just yet.

(For the record, I'd much rather see Hardy get all those bench minutes, I just have a feeling...)

I don't think Curry was signed because Hardy was not ready.  I think he was signed in anticipation of trading Timmy.  It also doesn't hurt that he has played with both Luka and Kyrie in the past.

(09-26-2023, 04:12 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]I disagree with your take on 1) rookies in general, and 2) Lively in particular. I think the bottom line with Lively is that you're underestimating not so much his BBIQ as his all-around IQ. I think he's going to blow your mind with how fast he learns. I think he starts a fair number of games and averages 20 mpg this year, and the only way he "hurts the team" on the court is a little foul trouble that prevents his minutes from being higher. While an overall evaluation of his performance over the coming year would be subjective and non-quantifiable, I would gladly sig bet you that 1) Lively averages 20 mpg, 2) he starts at least 30 games, and 3) that the Mavs' record is better when he starts than when he doesn't.

I hope you're right, but there just isn't a comp to a C who played 20mins in one year in college and then played 20mins his rook year in the NBA, nor with starting 30 games.  Literally Lively would be the first to do it.

(09-27-2023, 10:02 AM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think Curry was signed because Hardy was not ready.  I think he was signed in anticipation of trading Timmy.  It also doesn't hurt that he has played with both Luka and Kyrie in the past.

I think that was the initial thought too but now that Timmy looks like he's staying, one of those 3 is going to be the odd man out and I can just see Kidd leaning heavily on Seth because of the better ball handling.

I was thinking earlier this week how easily this season can shift into a situation where the front office sees Hardy as expendable in a high end trade.  Imagine the Mavs/Timmy/Seth all playing pretty well and the Cavs struggling and make Allen available and the cost is Hardy/1st plus filler.  I can easily see a world where by February the Mavs are looking hard at deals like that.

(09-26-2023, 07:08 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Difficult to say. I can't say he was unhappy, but I also can't say he is exactly screaming from joy. He would probably prefer to see the on-court result instead of just projections. But, I think it is very certain he will be very unhappy if they will miss the playoffs again. We can go on and on about what we think, but I am far less convinced than you that this team is a certain playoff team. Also basically all objective projections are puting Mavs in play-in race. None of the teams above them from last season really got (much) worse and several from below got stronger. Denver, Memphis, Sacramento, Clippers, GSW, Minny are very similar than last season. Phoenix is probably better. OKC is certainly better and who knows, perhaps even Pelicans will get some longer stretch of healthy Zion (otherwise same as last year). Houston and probably also SA are better than last season, Portland will likely be around where they were or worse. Utah is probably worse. 

As for the assets. I don't think trading 2027 pick mortgages Mavs future in a serious way. They don't need a player that will cost 3 FRP. They need right role players next to their stars. Unprotected FRP could get two of those. Getting a solid center is not blocking any rookie development, as Powell and Holmes would be the ones losing minutes. A better defensive wing then THJ would also not hurt. 

I think the statement to do a trade to satisfy Omahen was very out of line, not needed at all. Of course it has nothing to do about me. They need to manage risk of Luka becoming unhappy. Every account says that Luka is an extreme competitor who values winning above everything. Besides, he is also a sore loser.

I wonder. If things don't go as you think they will and Luka asks out. Will you accept that because their moves were the only ones that make sense? Things going wrong include both on-court production as well as injuries, Irving doing off-court Irving things and missing time and similar.

Four things:

1) I did indeed mean the "satisfy Omahen" thing as a jibe, and I'm sorry if it offended, but I absolutely don't think it was out of line. As others pointed out, we have seen no evidence that Luka didn't like the offseason, but you have been very vocal on the board that *you* didn't like the offseason because we didn't get a solid starting center and a wing. I think you're dead wrong on the wing part, unless you're completely discounting OMax. I know I'm going out on a limb a bit with my Lively hopes. That notwithstanding, if you do the research on OMax, saying he's going to be the third best player in L who is on our current 2023 roster by the 2025 offseason is not a reach.

2) I completely agree with you that the season, and the near future overall, depends a lot on Luka-Kyrie meshing. I have high hopes that their skill levels, BBIQ, and professionalism will make things work exceptionally well on the offensive end. Last year looked awkward on that end, but their quantifiable production when they were on the court together is undeniable. The question is the defensive end. Many of our new additions - GW, OMax, Lively, Exum, DJJ, not to mention the swing for Thybulle - had to do with defense. I think Luka has a higher defensive ceiling than Kai. But we still have other players like Hardy and THJ who will likely be part of the rotation and can't defend very well. I seem to remember you questioning them re-signing Kai. But they had to do it. And they certainly aren't going to trade him right away. Perhaps at the trade deadline if things aren't working out. I do agree that he's likely gone by 2026 at the latest, so they do need to be thinking in terms of the broader future. But if you trade Kai now, or at the deadline, for two role players (which I presume to mean, decent two-way starters who aren't star-level), then you go back from the Mavs being a two-star team to being a one-star team. No team has won rings in recent years with one star. Remember "Get Luka some help?" Moreover, if you dump Kyrie, then it becomes *non-optional* to retain the 27, because the Mavs are going to need it to have the big package you're arguing we don't need next summer, because if we don't get a second star, Luka will leave for sure.

3) The reason Capela's name keeps getting brought up is that he's a two-year rental, with the presumption by many that Lively will be 100% ready by year 3. I think Lively will be solid by year 2 at the latest, but I know I'm in the minority. Most of the other targets brought up either create problems for the team (Ayton), or are longer term investments that presume that the Mavs already know that Lively is a bust (Allen). Capela would be fantastic for this year's Mavs. It's simply that Atlanta's price isn't real reasonable for what we have to offer, and you don't spend juicy assets on him - even a single juicy asset - due to the very fact that he is a stopgap. 

4) My understanding is that if the Mavs trade 27 this year, then they only have one FRP to offer in trade next summer due to the Stepien rule. Dan, am I wrong? In any event, that would be catastrophic in terms of team-improvement prospects.

(09-27-2023, 11:54 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Four things:

1) I did indeed mean the "satisfy Omahen" thing as a jibe, and I'm sorry if it offended, but I absolutely don't think it was out of line. As others pointed out, we have seen no evidence that Luka didn't like the offseason, but you have been very vocal on the board that *you* didn't like the offseason because we didn't get a solid starting center and a wing. I think you're dead wrong on the wing part, unless you're completely discounting OMax. I know I'm going out on a limb a bit with my Lively hopes. That notwithstanding, if you do the research on OMax, saying he's going to be the third best player in L who is on our current 2023 roster by the 2025 offseason is not a reach.

2) I completely agree with you that the season, and the near future overall, depends a lot on Luka-Kyrie meshing. I have high hopes that their skill levels, BBIQ, and professionalism will make things work exceptionally well on the offensive end. Last year looked awkward on that end, but their quantifiable production when they were on the court together is undeniable. The question is the defensive end. Many of our new additions - GW, OMax, Lively, Exum, DJJ, not to mention the swing for Thybulle - had to do with defense. I think Luka has a higher defensive ceiling than Kai. But we still have other players like Hardy and THJ who will likely be part of the rotation and can't defend very well. I seem to remember you questioning them re-signing Kai. But they had to do it. And they certainly aren't going to trade him right away. Perhaps at the trade deadline if things aren't working out. I do agree that he's likely gone by 2026 at the latest, so they do need to be thinking in terms of the broader future. But if you trade Kai now, or at the deadline, for two role players (which I presume to mean, decent two-way starters who aren't star-level), then you go back from the Mavs being a two-star team to being a one-star team. No team has won rings in recent years with one star. Remember "Get Luka some help?" Moreover, if you dump Kyrie, then it becomes *non-optional* to retain the 27, because the Mavs are going to need it to have the big package you're arguing we don't need next summer, because if we don't get a second star, Luka will leave for sure.

3) The reason Capela's name keeps getting brought up is that he's a two-year rental, with the presumption by many that Lively will be 100% ready by year 3. I think Lively will be solid by year 2 at the latest, but I know I'm in the minority. Most of the other targets brought up either create problems for the team (Ayton), or are longer term investments that presume that the Mavs already know that Lively is a bust (Allen). Capela would be fantastic for this year's Mavs. It's simply that Atlanta's price isn't real reasonable for what we have to offer, and you don't spend juicy assets on him - even a single juicy asset - due to the very fact that he is a stopgap. 

4) My understanding is that if the Mavs trade 27 this year, then they only have one FRP to offer in trade next summer due to the Stepien rule. Dan, am I wrong? In any event, that would be catastrophic in terms of team-improvement prospects.

The offseason will be judged by the end result, not by our feelings at this point. You have your opinion, I have mine. No point repeating it over and over. 

I never questioned resigning Kyrie. That was imho the only possibility once they traded for him.

4) you are wrong. They can trade 24 or 25 (depending if pick goes to NY or not) and 31 next summer.

(09-27-2023, 10:22 AM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]I can just see Kidd leaning heavily on Seth because of the better ball handling.

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1707...gr%5Etweet

I didn't hear the audio but Kidd mentioned one of the rookies will probably start. Now, who knows if he is just talking about next week or the expectation to begin the year.

There was also a nice Luka and Lively lob pass in the highlights and Luka saying they have good chemistry already. I guess we should wait to see if Luka knows his name first

Like the movement and spacing of this play

https://x.com/redditmavericks/status/170...29358?s=46&t=iwQP5yZoJF3Ulzfb9MH7Cg

(09-27-2023, 01:30 PM)Chicagojk Wrote: [ -> ]I didn't hear the audio but Kidd mentioned one of the rookies will probably start.  Now, who knows if he is just talking about next week or the expectation to begin the year.

There was also a nice Luka and Lively lob pass in the highlights and Luka saying they have good chemistry already.  I guess we should wait to see if Luka knows his name first

My understanding was that it was clear Kidd was referring to preseason.  I think its very unlikely we being the season starting a rookie.

(09-27-2023, 03:52 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]My understanding was that it was clear Kidd was referring to preseason.  I think its very unlikely we being the season starting a rookie.

Him starting wouldn't surprise me at all at this point 
I just would be surprised if he actually plays major minutes and finishes games. Like 15 to 20 minutes mpg

(09-27-2023, 03:52 PM)mvossman Wrote: [ -> ]My understanding was that it was clear Kidd was referring to preseason.  I think its very unlikely we being the season starting a rookie.

I think he said the same thing today.  I agree though, tough to get an understanding what Kidd means.

Anyway, I doubt he is ready to jump in from the start and be productive game in game out.  But if he can develop good chemistry with Luka it may be a solid plan to start him.  Give him 5-6 minutes to start the game.   Maybe he gets some easy lobs.  Maybe he picks up 3 fouls in 3 minutes.   Then you can bring in Powell or Holmes as your energy big in a role they may be better suited for.   Maxi will probably get minutes closing on several nights.

Probably won't happen right away but I could see something like this as the year goes on.   Luka can hold Lively's hand a little.  If Lively just knows where to go, he could have his moments even with his rawness.

(09-27-2023, 11:54 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Four things:

1) I did indeed mean the "satisfy Omahen" thing as a jibe, and I'm sorry if it offended, but I absolutely don't think it was out of line. As others pointed out, we have seen no evidence that Luka didn't like the offseason, but you have been very vocal on the board that *you* didn't like the offseason because we didn't get a solid starting center and a wing. I think you're dead wrong on the wing part, unless you're completely discounting OMax. I know I'm going out on a limb a bit with my Lively hopes. That notwithstanding, if you do the research on OMax, saying he's going to be the third best player in L who is on our current 2023 roster by the 2025 offseason is not a reach.

2) I completely agree with you that the season, and the near future overall, depends a lot on Luka-Kyrie meshing. I have high hopes that their skill levels, BBIQ, and professionalism will make things work exceptionally well on the offensive end. Last year looked awkward on that end, but their quantifiable production when they were on the court together is undeniable. The question is the defensive end. Many of our new additions - GW, OMax, Lively, Exum, DJJ, not to mention the swing for Thybulle - had to do with defense. I think Luka has a higher defensive ceiling than Kai. But we still have other players like Hardy and THJ who will likely be part of the rotation and can't defend very well. I seem to remember you questioning them re-signing Kai. But they had to do it. And they certainly aren't going to trade him right away. Perhaps at the trade deadline if things aren't working out. I do agree that he's likely gone by 2026 at the latest, so they do need to be thinking in terms of the broader future. But if you trade Kai now, or at the deadline, for two role players (which I presume to mean, decent two-way starters who aren't star-level), then you go back from the Mavs being a two-star team to being a one-star team. No team has won rings in recent years with one star. Remember "Get Luka some help?" Moreover, if you dump Kyrie, then it becomes *non-optional* to retain the 27, because the Mavs are going to need it to have the big package you're arguing we don't need next summer, because if we don't get a second star, Luka will leave for sure.

3) The reason Capela's name keeps getting brought up is that he's a two-year rental, with the presumption by many that Lively will be 100% ready by year 3. I think Lively will be solid by year 2 at the latest, but I know I'm in the minority. Most of the other targets brought up either create problems for the team (Ayton), or are longer term investments that presume that the Mavs already know that Lively is a bust (Allen). Capela would be fantastic for this year's Mavs. It's simply that Atlanta's price isn't real reasonable for what we have to offer, and you don't spend juicy assets on him - even a single juicy asset - due to the very fact that he is a stopgap. 

4) My understanding is that if the Mavs trade 27 this year, then they only have one FRP to offer in trade next summer due to the Stepien rule. Dan, am I wrong? In any event, that would be catastrophic in terms of team-improvement prospects.

Good lord, have you finally caught your breath?

The Kyrie presser today was really interesting in the sense of him saying he had worked with the front office a little bit this offseason but the most interesting part was him hinting at upcoming free agents...He has a history of recruiting stars that would make Chandler Parsons blush.

Also interesting that he also mentioned Seth running the second unit. I really am starting to get a bad feeling for those who want to see Hardy get big minutes this season.

(09-28-2023, 04:33 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]Also interesting that he also mentioned Seth running the second unit. I really am starting to get a bad feeling for those who want to see Hardy get big minutes this season.

Yep. This talk of Curry getting minutes and making THJ a SMotY candidate is the darkest timeline for Hardy and his minutes. He also talked about the next part of Hardy’s development being that he needs to be able to set up the offense and execute plays. SL has me worried about trying to make him something he isn’t.

---

Has me thinking it would’ve been more productive to bring back DSJ.

(09-28-2023, 04:42 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]SL has me worried about trying to make him something he isn’t.

I see that POV, and it might end up being the correct one. 

Then again, there aren't really many guys Hardy's size with big roles in the league who don't play PG, at least to a certain extent. There used to be a dividing line between "true point guards" and "combo guards" (which is, I suppose, where Hardy would've fit) but it seems lately that the league has decided A) all PG's need to be scorers, so B) all scoring guards who need the ball in their hands (which is undeniably the attraction with Hardy, right?) need to be able to run the offense a little. 

It just seems like Hardy needs to get AT LEAST to like a Jordan Clarkson level of offensive setup skill if he's to have any type of real role, the way I see it. Or, since we're talking about the Mavs, doesn't he have the physical skills to do that as well or better than Curry? So, if he's not as good at it as Curry is (yet), doesn't that argue for him not being quite ready?

(09-28-2023, 04:33 PM)StrandedOnBeauboisHill Wrote: [ -> ]The Kyrie presser today was really interesting in the sense of him saying he had worked with the front office a little bit this offseason but the most interesting part was him hinting at upcoming free agents...He has a history of recruiting stars that would make Chandler Parsons blush.

Also interesting that he also mentioned Seth running the second unit.  I really am starting to get a bad feeling for those who want to see Hardy get big minutes this season.

I can imagine Cuban trying to sell a Luka and Kyrie on trying to recruit a third star in free agency in the summer of 2025.  

Unfortunately, this would likely be used as an excuse to let Josh Green walk this coming summer.  

It's a terrible approach and I hope we don't really try this again after failing at it for more than 10 seasons. 

Also, it will be very depressing if Kidd plays Seth Curry more minutes than Jaden Hardy.  I do expect he'd ultimately become frustrated with Seth's defense and move onto Hardy or Exum as the top guard off the bench.  

Preseason starts in a week and we'll actually have some understanding of Kidd's plans once we can see some actual basketball.

(09-28-2023, 09:31 PM)surfpuckmd Wrote: [ -> ]Also, it will be very depressing if Kidd plays Seth Curry more minutes than Jaden Hardy.  I do expect he'd ultimately become frustrated with Seth's defense and move onto Hardy or Exum as the top guard off the bench.  

Preseason starts in a week and we'll actually have some understanding of Kidd's plans once we can see some actual basketball.

“Very depressing”? 

Dang. I somehow thought the goal was to win.

…so you’re saying that, if Hardy is glued to the bench, but the Mavs are winning most of their games, you’ll be pouting?

JKidd usually does something inexplicable. Curry is terrible these days. He needs to just have a break glass in case of emergency role. Hardy and Exum are far more interesting prospects.

I feel like it was just to be expected that Hardy was going to be buried on the bench after the Curry signing and THJ sticking around.
And to go even further, I think it's more likely that Exum beats out Curry for a rotation spot before Hardy would. He's buried deep unless we get a THJ trade