(06-12-2022, 06:47 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Absolutely guys succeed without physical attributes (like Bane who I was dead wrong on). BUT the physical attributes are a guide and statistically they help you weed through the decision making process. Bane is an exception. Kessler could be an exception.
Have you watched film on Koloko? My question to all the Kessler apologists: Why do you like Kessler more than Koloko?
He's already 22 and he's still way too skinny, guy's built like Porzingis (at least he's not built like Holmgren though). Struggles with physicality a bit. Some wings and even guards at the NBA level will be able to bully him unless he puts on a fair bit more muscle. Not as good at defending the PNR. A little more prone to fouling, tends to allow blow bys on the perimeter more than he should which is worse for him because he's not as good with the off hand. And some of it is just the gaudy block numbers that display clear instincts, 19% block percentage vs. 10%. I'd rather have the bigger body when a team like Golden State puts a guy like Looney out there
(06-12-2022, 05:56 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]We routinely see players with terrible physical attributes exceed on the scale of success. We see talking heads say Luka wouldn't be able to get by any one in the league or stay in front of any one. And sure they were right that his first step isn't necessarily the quickest, yet he still drops 30 points every night with ease. Desmond Bane in 2020 had the shortest arms of any guard in the draft and was probably a big reason why he fell to 30... and we both know how that turned out. We see short guys like Barea, Mugsy, and Boykins somehow find a way to survive.
All of this to say to me that physical stats shouldn't be the opening discussion on why a player should be knocked down a peg. Kessler performed and put up big game after big game for Auburn. That should count for something. Kessler also has something that I think is becoming rarer and rarer and that is elite positional awareness. He stops people by knowing what they're doing and being in the right spot vs. overwhelming them with athleticism.
Further in that DraftExpress breakdown video you posted we see Kessler scoring on 73% of his rim attempts in the halfcourt, and finishing 94%(!!!!) of his attempts as the roller in the PnR.
If you made it this far in my ramblings, I am concerned about his lateral foot speed. He got beat a lot when the defender made east-west moves to get by him. A good amount of the time in college Kessler managed to recover and make a play. The question is can he do that in the NBA when the athletes are literally in another league?
Should he fall to 26, I would look REAL hard at him. He's not my first choice (going to post my own list of fav prospects soon), but he's not the worst one either.
I´m with you on measurements, but at the same time you cannot overrate a college sample size of 30 games either.
I just want a baller. Love basketball, work hard, have a feel for the ball and game. That´s what I would be looking for.
I honestly run a trick shot competition with players to test their feel for the basketball. Put them in uncomfortable positions to test their creativity and feel. I´d put small obstacles in front of the rim and on separate places on the backboard and tell them to score it. Challenge their learned patterns and see who has truly mastered their body control and has gifted hands/touch to problem solve.
I can tell you Luka would thrive on this, while Ntilikina and Green would fail miserably, cause they have zero feel and body control in unknown circumstances. I´d take a guy that shoots 12 percent from three, but can make a high arching lay-up over a chair blocking the best lay-up angle over a guy that has drilled wide open threes into his repertoire.
(06-12-2022, 12:23 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]YES. YES. YES.
I mean, I get the logic, trust me. But as a matter of practicality, how do you propose they create the roster spot?
And, you're willing to let Ntilikina walk to add the mystery man at #26? Or, are you assuming they'll create multiple roster spots? How?
(06-12-2022, 12:28 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I mean, I get the logic, trust me. But as a matter of practicality, how do you propose they create the roster spot?
And, you're willing to let Ntilikina walk to add the mystery man at #26? Or, are you assuming they'll create multiple roster spots? How?
Not Frank. But somebody else is about to get waived for the 3rd time in his career...
(06-12-2022, 12:34 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Not Frank. But somebody else is about to get waived for the 3rd time in his career...
So you think in order to:
A) re-sign Brunson
B) use the MLE
C) draft someone at #26
with only one roster spot available, simply letting Ntilikina (not guaranteed) walk will NOT be part of that scenario? I'm seriously asking. I have a really hard time believing that.
(06-12-2022, 12:37 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]So you think in order to:
A) re-sign Bruson
B) use the MLE
C) draft someone at #26
with only one roster spot available, simply letting Ntilikina walk will NOT be part of that scenario? I'm seriously asking. I have a really hard time believing that.
I think Burke, Brown and Chriss are more likely to be waived/traded. Playoffs established a clear hierarchy and Frank was clearly ahead of the other mentioned names. Just like Green.
Just looking at the end of the bench guys. Total minutes played:
Frank 125
Green 121
Burke 37
Chriss 30
Brown 26
Boban 6
(06-12-2022, 12:45 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I think Burke, Brown and Chriss are more likely to be waived/traded. Playoffs established a clear hierarchy and Frank was clearly ahead of the other mentioned names. Just like Green.
Just looking at the end of the bench guys. Total minutes played:
Frank 125
Green 121
Burke 37
Chriss 30
Brown 26
Boban 6
Right, all that tracks. Ntilikina played ahead of all those guys. Last year.
This year, he's not under contract. The team will be a tax payer for the first time in over a decade. You're assuming players with guaranteed money (on which tax will be paid, whether they're here or not) will be waived so that Ntilikina's new salary (along with the MLE and #26 salaries) can be added.
Even if you're right and they want to do that, do you think they will?
EDIT: sorry, I misread Kamm's roster sheet. Ntilikina IS under contract, just not guaranteed. My mistake. That changes things pretty significantly, but I'd still posit that he's in some danger here.
Maybe that's where the disagreement is originating.
I hate arguing against valuing the acquisition of cheap, young chances at developing players, and trust me, that's not my aim here.
I don't trust that Cuban will allow the team to pay taxes on players who are on other rosters. It's that simple. If you look at his history, it seems far more likely that he'll find a way to get off of that pick. He has done it several times when it made much less sense. This season, I kind of get it.
(06-12-2022, 12:55 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe that's where the disagreement is originating.
I hate arguing against valuing the acquisition of cheap, young chances at developing players, and trust me, that's not my aim here.
I simply don't trust that Cuban will allow the team to pay taxes on players who are on other rosters. It's that simple. If you look at his history, it seems far more likely that he'll find a way to get off of that pick. He has done it several times when it made much less sense. This season, I kind of get it.
I also don´t really see the Burke is a great guy perspective. At least from Cubans point of view. There was some real tension because Burke was the only player that refused to be vaccinated.
https://thesmokingcuban.com/posts/maveri...n-comments
(06-12-2022, 12:59 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]I also don´t really see the Burke is a great guy perspective. At least from Cubans point of view. There was some real tension because Burke was the only player that refused to be vaccinated.
https://thesmokingcuban.com/posts/maveri...n-comments
Sure, but I don't think this conversation and that one overlap that much. That's my point.
The reason I feel the way I do about THIS is 100% about money, that's it.
Heck, if they want to re-sign Brunson AND use the MLE, they'll probably have to release someone anyway (unless there's a trade, which is possible). I think Ntilikina's spot is in jeopardy right there, and we're not even talking about using the pick yet.
I guess what I'm asking is this: if we play a game and assume that Burke will definitely NOT be released, are you still pushing to draft someone with #26? What if it's #26 OR Ntilikina?
(06-12-2022, 01:02 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Sure, but I don't think this conversation and that one overlap that much. That's my point.
The reason I feel the way I do about THIS is 100% about money, that's it.
Heck, if they want to re-sign Brunson AND use the MLE, they'll probably have to release someone anyway (unless there's a trade, which is possible). I think Ntilikina's spot is in jeopardy right there, and we're not even talking about using the pick yet.
I guess what I'm asking is this: if we play a game and assume that Burke will definitely NOT be released, are you still pushing to draft someone with #26? What if it's #26 OR Ntilikina?
Smart asset management. Keep Frank. Trade the pick.
(06-12-2022, 01:04 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Smart asset management. Keep Frank. Trade the pick.
Ok, that's where I am, too.
I guess the difference is that you think he'll release multiple players with guaranteed contracts (probably two of Burke, Boban, Chriss and Brown). That's what you would do, and I can respect that.
I just don't think Cuban wants to do that, and in fact, I feel like he'll go to great lengths to avoid it. I can see him trying to trade a package that clears some spots if they want (Brunson +MLE and #26), but I just have a super hard time envisioning them lighting the money on fire. He has not shown that he values late first round picks enough to go that route, imho.
My logic above, along with the abstract idea that #26 MIGHT help a trade package bring back something of value that could help immediately, is kind of what leads me to predict that they'll go that route.
But, we're all just making predictions here. Also, I'll admit that I'm less studied on this draft than normal, so it might just be that the guys being suggested for #26 targets simply aren't grabbing me to this point.
(06-12-2022, 12:55 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I don't trust that Cuban will allow the team to pay taxes on players who are on other rosters. It's that simple.
As Loki pointed out, he doesn't have to. One can simply pay another team to take the salary. They basically get a player for free.
(06-12-2022, 01:10 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Ok, that's where I am, too.
I guess the difference is that you think he'll release multiple players with guaranteed contracts (probably two of Burke, Boban, Chriss and Brown). That's what you would do, and I can respect that.
I just don't think he wants to do that, and in fact, I feel like he'll go to great lengths to avoid it. I can see him trying to trade a package that clears some spots if they want (Brunson +MLE and #26), but I just have a super hard time envisioning them lighting the money on fire. He has not shown that he values late first round picks enough to go that route, imho.
My logic above, along with the abstract idea that #26 MIGHT help a trade package bring back something of value that could help immediately, is kind of what leads me to predict that they'll go that route.
But, we're all just making predictions here. Also, I'll admit that I'm less studied in this draft than normal, so it might just be that the guys being suggested for #26 targets simply aren't grabbing me to this point.
I think releasing players that aren´t contributing and keeping cheap players that can help is a good way to prevent the repeater tax next summer. I don´t think Kleber and Powell will be back at 10m + each. Looking at Cubans statements he seems to be willing to go for it this summer.
“We’re going to be in luxury tax hell next year, but that’s OK; it frees up the year after that,” Cuban said, managing a smile
Notice that he is only talking about this season. Not next season. Going along with that approach it would be smart to fill the roster with cheap contracts. Also important to find a potential replacement for Kleber/Powell this year. Even though it might cost a little bit extra it might save money in the longrun because the Mavs can avoid the repeater tax without giving up crucial rotation pieces.
(06-12-2022, 01:04 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Smart asset management. Keep Frank. Trade the pick.
Smarter asset management, keep Frank (if it’s determined that he still has the ability to crack the rotation), keep the pick (if it’s determined the player has upside beyond the 10-15 spots), trade all those who are determined to stay in the 10-15 spots: lookin at least at Brown and Burke, but I got my eye on Chriss.
Keep staring down Boban and Pinson and maybe they retire/quit/ask to be traded or cut so we don’t have to live in this stupid world where roster spots are used on mascots (once again, quite literally the thing Dudley was reported to be THE guy for that role).
(06-12-2022, 01:18 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: [ -> ]Smarter asset management, keep Frank (if it’s determined that he still has the ability to crack the rotation), keep the pick (if it’s determined the player has upside beyond the 10-15 spots), trade all those who are determined to stay in the 10-15 spots: lookin at least at Brown and Burke, but I got my eye on Chriss.
Keep staring down Boban and Pinson and maybe they retire/quit/ask to be traded or cut so we don’t have to live in this stupid world where roster spots are used on mascots (once again, quite literally the thing Dudley was reported to be THE guy for that role).
Of course. But that wasn´t the question.
(06-12-2022, 01:16 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]As Loki pointed out, he doesn't have to. One can simply pay another team to take the salary. They basically get a player for free.
Ok, pay what though? If you mean a small amount of cash, maybe. But, for future 2nds? I think that is making the problem worse.
Sorry, I missed Loki's post, so please clarify.
Also, have the Mavs demonstrated that they are excited to do things like this in the past? Do we really think they value this hypothetical #26 player enough to jump through these hoops, or are they more likely to stick with the evaluations that led them to acquire the guys they currently have in the first place?
(06-12-2022, 12:45 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Total minutes played:
Frank 125
Green 121
Burke 37
Chriss 30
Brown 26
Boban 6
This should be the guide to the chopping block. No way should you chop those who contribute more than others.