(06-11-2022, 08:02 PM)Winter Wrote: [ -> ]Agree. If he can't shoot from the perimeter yet, then he remains a "potential" rotation player who is useless for extended minutes. A lot of wings in the draft can "finish at the rim" like Brown, but about half of them can't shoot well from the perimeter. Please give me one who can.
All year people on this board said the same thing about Green. "He's young. He's only 21." Well I would rather not replay all that in the 2022-23 season for a 19 year-old Kendall Brown.
There is no question Kendall Brown's shooting is a big question mark and concern. If it wasn't he would be a top 10 pick. But he might be there at #26 and sometimes it is worth rolling the dice on #26 to see if you can develop a guy who has a significant ceiling.
(06-11-2022, 08:06 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Is there ANYONE potentially available at 26 who won’t be a project, to a certain point?
This is why I think the pick will be made for another team on draft night, personally.
That sort of mentality is why our talent level other than Luka is not all that great. There are 3 avenues to improve your team. Trades, FA and the draft. The first two requires two to tango and you might have to give up something valuable. Plus you might take 2 years there too with like KP to realize that the trade was a bust. The draft is one place where you can legit find a great talent even much lower in the draft. We have a 2 time MVP now who is a 2md rounder. Sure that doesn’t happen but a lot of cheap good talent is found late first and early 2nd. Why just dismiss that avenue for improvement especially given the issues that are there if you go the FA and trade route also?
(06-11-2022, 08:06 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Is there ANYONE potentially available at 26 who won’t be a project, to a certain point?
I definitely think there will be guys taken at #26 and past that will be contributors relatively soon. The question is figuring out who they are. Everyone at #26 has big question marks (like Kendall's shooting). I personally think Jake LaRavia and Dalen Terry (if available at #26) are two of the most sure guys.
(06-11-2022, 08:12 PM)hakeemfaan Wrote: [ -> ]That sort of mentality is why our talent level other than Luka is not all that great. There are 3 avenues to improve your team. Trades, FA and the draft. The first two requires two to tango and you might have to give up something valuable. Plus you might take 2 years there two like KP to realize that the trade was a bust. The draft is one place where you can legit find a great talent even much lower in the draft. We have a 2 time MVP now who is a 2md rounder. Sure that doesn’t happen but a lot of cheap good talent is found late first and early 2nd. Why just dismiss that avenue for improvement especially given the issues that are there if you go the FA and trade route also?
Ordinarily, I’d agree. But, in this case, they don’t have a roster spot without taking evasive maneuvers. It’s possible one will be created through other business, but they really need to add more ROTATION pieces now, and I have a hard time envisioning ways to do that without losing the ones they have unless the pick is used for that purpose.
I’m not anti-draft, but I AM anti “always draft a player, even when it doesn’t make sense.”
Bending over backwards and possibly spending an asset for less than its full value just to create a roster spot for a #26 project who won’t play and probably won’t develop seems like doubling your losses, to me.
I think the approach to team-building needs to be nuanced and flexible, personally.
Mavs just need to draft the best two-way basketball player available who is also not tiny. Avoid projects or guys who you have to say "Well if he learns to shoot, play defense, and pass he'll be a good basketball player!"
I think guys who are older are good candidates here. Brunson dropped because of age and bad "measurables" but he was already a great basketball player in college and the "potential" argument turned out to be bullshit. Same thing with Desmond Bane, who we stupidly passed on. Wingspan and athleticism are not substitutes for basketball skill. When you're drafting in the late 20s, you're gonna get guys with flaws, and those flaws will either be bad measurables or lack of actual basketball skill. In that case, give me the guys who know how to play every time.
(06-11-2022, 08:36 PM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]I think guys who are older are good candidates here. Brunson dropped because of age and bad "measurables" but he was already a great basketball player in college and the "potential" argument turned out to be bullshit. Same thing with Desmond Bane, who we stupidly passed on. Wingspan and athleticism are not substitutes for basketball skill. When you're drafting in the late 20s, you're gonna get guys with flaws, and those flaws will either be bad measurables or lack of actual basketball skill. In that case, give me the guys who know how to play every time.
I'm on board with this post as well.
(06-11-2022, 08:19 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I’m not anti-draft, but I AM anti “always draft a player, even when it doesn’t make sense.”
The only time I would be ok with not drafting a player and keeping a pipeline of possible talent is if I am using the pick to trade for a starter.
Do you think the Mavs could use #26 in a package to get a starter?
If you’re going to draft with the intent of PLAYING the kid right away, then yes, older players from established programs who consistently train at a high level are the way to go.
They hit on Brunson from Villanova, so they were in a position to believe in Saddiq Bey from the same school. If they had picked him, DFS’s playoff run would’ve been quite a bit easier this past go around, for sure.
(06-11-2022, 08:48 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]The only time I would be ok with not drafting a player and keeping a pipeline of possible talent is if I am using the pick to trade for a starter.
Do you think the Mavs could use #26 in a package to get a starter?
Maybe, maybe not. But, I don’t agree that such a hurdle must (always) be cleared in order for trading the pick to make sense.
During this, particular off-season (but not all of them) I’d say the level in question is playoff rotation player. 1-2 more of those now will make an immediate difference, imo.
Anyway, going back to, for example, Kessler, maybe it's true that his hands are too small. Maybe he's eaten a few too many Big Macs as a college kid. Those could be real flaws. But that's not the question I want the Mavs asking in this draft. I want them to ask "Is Kessler the best basketball player available right now?" If he is, take him. If he's not, take the guy who is.
If you take a guy who doesn't know how to play basketball yet, he's definitely not learning how to play meaningful NBA playoff minutes in the next two years. We can see proof of that with our last pick.
Why not Wendell Moore Jr., if he's available? Not a great athlete, but knows how to play basketball. Could be our "spell Dodo and Bullock" guy if nothing else.
I like Williams, Brown, Liddell, Terry, Laravia, Braun, and Koloko from what I've seen.
(06-11-2022, 09:23 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Why not Wendell Moore Jr., if he's available?
I like him. Catch and shoot was great this year....but he has been an inconsistent shooter. He tests well athletically but on-court seems to be a poor athlete. Height and standing reach make him more of a guard than a wing IMO.
(06-11-2022, 08:50 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]If you’re going to draft with the intent of PLAYING the kid right away, then yes, older players from established programs who consistently train at a high level are the way to go.
They hit on Brunson from Villanova, so they were in a position to believe in Saddiq Bey from the same school. If they had picked him, DFS’s playoff run would’ve been quite a bit easier this past go around, for sure.
Even the big hit on Brunson, as well as it eventually turned out, didn't land them a player who was plug-and-play at all.
Brunson played minutes, but he was a so-so backup for at least 2 years. Lots of doubts whether he would be worth keeping, since his perceived ceiling was undersized, no defense, lousy on 3s, PG. In fact, even after 3 years, no one was confident he could really be playoff playable.
Point being, it's so unlikely to find a player who is NBA ready at 26. Even if you hit the best that's on the board, it is most likely to take a few years for him to get there where you can trust his game.
(06-11-2022, 09:23 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]Why not Wendell Moore Jr., if he's available? Not a great athlete, but knows how to play basketball. Could be our "spell Dodo and Bullock" guy if nothing else.
I like Williams, Brown, Liddell, Terry, Laravia, Braun, and Koloko from what I've seen.
Seems like exactly the kind of guy I'm thinking of. A guy who's older, who teams pass on because his "ceiling is low." The Mavs should care more about the floor than the ceiling.
I just hope they're putting the appropriate time and money into the draft now
Decent chance the pick is traded but they still need a solid plan with the appropriate decision ladder in place on draft day. Sounds like it was always so weirdly hectic under Donnie
(06-11-2022, 10:30 PM)Jym Wrote: [ -> ]I just hope they're putting the appropriate time and money into the draft now
Decent chance the pick is traded but they still need a solid plan with the appropriate decision ladder in place on draft day. Sounds like it was always so weirdly hectic under Donnie
I agree with this.
(06-11-2022, 10:30 PM)Jym Wrote: [ -> ]I just hope they're putting the appropriate time and money into the draft now
Decent chance the pick is traded but they still need a solid plan with the appropriate decision ladder in place on draft day. Sounds like it was always so weirdly hectic under Donnie
I would also like the Mavs to try and buy an early 2nd from a team like OKC which doesn't have enough roster spots anyway.
(06-11-2022, 09:16 PM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]Anyway, going back to, for example, Kessler, maybe it's true that his hands are too small. Maybe he's eaten a few too many Big Macs as a college kid. Those could be real flaws. But that's not the question I want the Mavs asking in this draft. I want them to ask "Is Kessler the best basketball player available right now?" If he is, take him. If he's not, take the guy who is.
If you take a guy who doesn't know how to play basketball yet, he's definitely not learning how to play meaningful NBA playoff minutes in the next two years. We can see proof of that with our last pick.
The “best player available right now” at 26 will be worse at basketball than Tim Hardaway, Jr., Dwight Powell, Frank Ntilikina, Josh Green, and Marquis Chriss. Might find someone better than Sterling Brown or Theo Pinson if lucky.
(06-11-2022, 10:53 PM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]I would also like the Mavs to try and buy an early 2nd from a team like OKC which doesn't have enough roster spots anyway.
So we have more guys to cut come October?
(06-11-2022, 11:36 PM)Jommybone Wrote: [ -> ]The “best player available right now” at 26 will be worse at basketball than Tim Hardaway, Jr., Dwight Powell, Frank Ntilikina, Josh Green, and Marquis Chriss. Might find someone better than Sterling Brown or Theo Pinson if lucky.
There is no way, you can say that with any certainty, except for THJ. Powell, Ntilikina, Green and Chriss aren´t exactly setting a high bar. Two years ago Bane averaged 15/5/3 in his rookie season. Dosunmu averaged 9/3/3 last year, shooting 52% from field, 38% from three. Both were picked after #26.