Mavsluvr Wrote: "The Mavs aren't going to let Luka walk if he insists on a 3+1 instead of a 4+1, especially if they see the business sense in it. Maybe they'll surprise me and make him take the QO instead, who knows, but that would be really self-destructive, imho."
I'm surprised you are defaulting to a strawman featuring the most negative extreme of what could happen (something so extreme, it has never happened in NBA history) as your talking point for the alternative that will happen if the Mavs don't cave to Luka's wildest whim.
You say "Duffy will ask for the 3+1, and if the Mavs don't give it, they're stuck with him signing the QO." Two alternatives. C'mon, you know better. That's not how it works, not even close.
Nor is it where these max player extension negotiations end up.
No player has ever turned down a max-max rookie extension to play it out. The alternative is awful. It entails TWO YEARS of no additional guarantee, risk is all on him, and eventually in two years he can sign for LESS than he was offered in the first place (in the best case scenario).
Instead they take the big money before year 4 even begins. Mavs know that. Duffy knows that. It's in Luka's best interest to get life-changing money GUARANTEED and locked in before anything changes the equation. The agent wins too, by doing the big deal now. In addition, it's in the player's best interest to lock in with a team he likes, and wants to see them rise, assuming he likes where he is.
So they always take that deal if offered. Always.
Your approach in defaulting past all sorts of compromise possibilities, to the most extreme negative (one that's so very very very very unlikely), makes me ask --
What's the deal? Usually you are more rational and don't push wildly unlikely, wildly negative answers.
Perhaps you think the Mavs are that inept as negotiators?
Or that they are such a mess right now, that they are weak and will be bluffed into something crazy?
You may be right, of course. But I really don't think they are that broken. This is easy stuff for front offices.
(06-23-2021, 07:37 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Mavsluvr Wrote: "The Mavs aren't going to let Luka walk if he insists on a 3+1 instead of a 4+1, especially if they see the business sense in it. Maybe they'll surprise me and make him take the QO instead, who knows, but that would be really self-destructive, imho."
I'm surprised you are defaulting to a strawman featuring the most negative extreme of what could happen (something so extreme, it has never happened in NBA history) as your talking point for the alternative that will happen if the Mavs don't cave to Luka's wildest whim.
You say "Duffy will ask for the 3+1, and if the Mavs don't give it, they're stuck with him signing the QO." Two alternatives. C'mon, you know better. That's not how it works, not even close.
Nor is it where these max player extension negotiations end up.
No player has ever turned down a max-max rookie extension to play it out. The alternative is awful. It entails TWO YEARS of no additional guarantee, risk is all on him, and eventually in two years he can sign for LESS than he was offered in the first place (in the best case scenario).
Instead they take the big money before year 4 even begins. Mavs know that. Duffy knows that. It's in Luka's best interest to get life-changing money GUARANTEED and locked in before anything changes the equation. The agent wins too, by doing the big deal now. In addition, it's in the player's best interest to lock in with a team he likes, and wants to see them rise, assuming he likes where he is.
So they always take that deal if offered. Always.
Your approach in defaulting past all sorts of compromise possibilities, to the most extreme negative (one that's so very very very very unlikely), makes me ask --
What's the deal? Usually you are more rational and don't push wildly unlikely, wildly negative answers.
Perhaps you think the Mavs are that inept as negotiators?
Or that they are such a mess right now, that they are weak and will be bluffed into something crazy?
You may be right, of course. But I really don't think they are that broken. This is easy stuff for front offices.
Thanks for your thoughts, F Gump. I appreciate your taking the time to write them out.
However, since we are being honest with each other here, I am surprised that you are devoting this much energy to insisting that Luka will take a long deal, since neither one of us can know what will happen, and it is almost sure to be 3+1, 4+1, or 5. In response to what I was trying to say, it seems like a lot of quibbling, tbh.
The point wasn't that Luka is certain to take one length deal rather than another. The point was that the team does not necessarily have five or six years to get their contending roster together.
Some people seemed to be assuming that they would have five years in addition to this coming season, and I was just pointing out that that is not necessarily the case, and citing a more knowledgeable source than myself for the idea.
Peace out, bro. I enjoy reading your stuff. You raise some good points, they just didn't seem responsive to me, and they seemed to be delivered in an antagonistic manner, to my surprise. Please do not take this reply as dismissive or disrespectful in any way.
There are also rumours about the next TV deal being much bigger and how that will impact the cap.
If the cap jumps massively then it would be better for Luka to be a free agent sooner.
People are saying the teams and player union will want to smooth the cap jump out over a few years.
But that doesn’t benefit the players much, just gives the owners more profit for a few years.
Ie smoothing the cap doesn’t benefit free agents in the years the cap is artificially lowered.
So Luka could opt for a player option a year earlier then expected and considering the shambles the Mavs are in they don’t have much to push back with.
(06-23-2021, 08:28 PM)Aussiebballer Wrote: [ -> ]There are also rumours about the next TV deal being much bigger and how that will impact the cap.
If the cap jumps massively then it would be better for Luka to be a free agent sooner.
Brian discussed that specifically. If anyone wants to consider his ideas directly, it's about the first 20 minutes or so of his pod discussing it (the one right before the Donnie news broke).
So one thing on Cuban... I think in recent years he started to take control and do more and more. Post title run I think he started being more hands on and directing Donnie.
I think one thing we do have to consider is that with a more competent GM overall, you could get Mark to basically agree with them all the time once he gains Mark's trust. The more you are wrong the less your opinion matters. And Donnie had been getting alot wrong for years even if it was because Cuban and Rick's issues (like Rick clashing with players)
I would be shocked if Luka doesn't do the 4+1 deal and locked in that money. It's too much to pass up.
He may ask for a trade 2 years into the deal if he really wants out. That's the like the worst case scenario.
I'd go further to say if he doesn't ask for a trade in the next deal, I think he signs the Supermax again after his deal ends. It's waaaaaay too much money to pass up. Not many Supermax guys even make it to FA. And not everyone is Lebron that can hop around. Lebron has endorsements yeah... But Lebron is also a multi multi millionaire with his business deals. He was an early investor in Beats and Blaze and a few others. Heck he just got 30 mill when Beats sold for agreeing to wear them before games on camera lol. But he was an investor too and we have no idea how much money he has made. Perkins claims it was 700 mill.
That being said.. You best make sure Luka is happy with the front office and coach while here. And have a roster capable of getting out of the 1st. He'll ask for a trade at some point if not.
(06-23-2021, 08:46 PM)cjeter24 Wrote: [ -> ]I think in recent years he started to take control and do more and more.
That's funny. My read is the exact opposite. I think Cuban was LESS involved these last years.
(06-23-2021, 08:46 PM)cjeter24 Wrote: [ -> ]So one thing on Cuban... I think in recent years he started to take control and do more and more. Post title run I think he started being more hands on and directing Donnie.
Are we sure about that? I've wondered the opposite. I get the vibe that Cuban has been spending more and more time on outside political and business ventures and less time with the team. The resulting leadership vacuum could have actually been a key contributor to the chaos on the business side (pre-Cynt) and the destructive power struggles on the basketball side. I know it goes against the popular narrative, but the core problem might not be too much Cuban but too little. Or more directly, not enough leadership at the top.
Now one could certainly argue that it would be better if Cuban ceded that leadership control to a strong executive. But in the absence of that, I think another good option is for him to outsource some of his other pet hobbies like his relentless crypto promotion and focus on leading the team. It's the partial attention that I think is hurting him most.
(06-23-2021, 08:55 PM)cjeter24 Wrote: [ -> ]I would be shocked if Luka doesn't do the 4+1 deal and locked in that money. It's too much to pass up.
He may ask for a trade 2 years into the deal if he really wants out. That's the like the worst case scenario.
I'd go further to say if he doesn't ask for a trade in the next deal, I think he signs the Supermax again after his deal ends.
The idea is that with a 3+1, he's eligible for the supermax sooner than if he does a 4+1. He's not really giving up anything unless he gets seriously injured.
It's waaaaaay too much money to pass up. Not many Supermax guys even make it to FA. And not everyone is Lebron that can hop around. Lebron has endorsements yeah... But Lebron is also a multi multi millionaire with his business deals. He was an early investor in Beats and Blaze and a few others. Heck he just got 30 mill when Beats sold for agreeing to wear them before games on camera lol. But he was an investor too and we have no idea how much money he has made. Perkins claims it was 700 mill.
That being said.. You best make sure Luka is happy with the front office and coach while here. And have a roster capable of getting out of the 1st. At a minimum. He'll ask for a trade at some point if not.
(06-23-2021, 09:00 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]Are we sure about that? I've wondered the opposite. I get the vibe that Cuban has been spending more and more time on outside political and business ventures and less time with the team. The resulting leadership vacuum could have actually been a key contributor to the chaos on the business side (pre-Cynt) and the destructive power struggles on the basketball side. I know it goes against the popular narrative, but the core problem might not be too much Cuban but too little. Or more directly, not enough leadership at the top.
Now one could certainly argue that it would be better if Cuban ceded that leadership control to a strong executive. But in the absence of that, I think another good option is for him to outsource some of his other pet hobbies like his relentless crypto promotion and focus on leading the team. It's the partial attention that I think is hurting him most.
This is what it seems like to me. Parachuting in and making decisions that he cares about making, and not otherwise paying attention.
I don't really see him returning to focusing heavily on the team on a day-to-day basis. He's way into too many other things. Jack of all trades, master of none -- that's the danger.
I guess time will tell.
(06-23-2021, 09:00 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]I get the vibe that Cuban has been spending more and more time on outside political and business ventures and less time with the team. The resulting leadership vacuum could have actually been a key contributor to the chaos on the business side (pre-Cynt) and the destructive power struggles on the basketball side. I know it goes against the popular narrative, but the core problem might not be too much Cuban but too little. Or more directly, not enough leadership at the top.
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media1.giphy.com/media/qlrBlSDevEdFeW5JwV/giphy.gif)
The most likely explanation is that the org has been terrible for the entirety of Mark's ownership and has been propped up by one of the greatest players of all time.
(06-23-2021, 02:37 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: [ -> ]What do you attribute the lack of FA talent signing with Dallas to?
Love this question. Would also love (but also fear) to see a discussion of how politics and race bear on pro athletes’ perception of Dallas (and Texas) as a potential home. This might not be the place for an informed discussion, seeing how most of us would probably be guessing. But man, it seems to me that this is an issue.
(06-23-2021, 09:00 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]Are we sure about that? I've wondered the opposite. I get the vibe that Cuban has been spending more and more time on outside political and business ventures and less time with the team. The resulting leadership vacuum could have actually been a key contributor to the chaos on the business side (pre-Cynt) and the destructive power struggles on the basketball side. I know it goes against the popular narrative, but the core problem might not be too much Cuban but too little. Or more directly, not enough leadership at the top.
Now one could certainly argue that it would be better if Cuban ceded that leadership control to a strong executive. But in the absence of that, I think another good option is for him to outsource some of his other pet hobbies like his relentless crypto promotion and focus on leading the team. It's the partial attention that I think is hurting him most.
Maybe the last few years you are right....
But we didn't hear about his big plans like Plan Powder or him straight up overruling Donnie in the draft until after 2011.
@"mavsluvr" you are right about the getting paid sooner. but allows him less flexibility to get traded and be under contract long enough to be eligible for Supermax on new team.
(06-23-2021, 09:09 PM)Jommybone Wrote: [ -> ]Love this question. Would also love (but also fear) to see a discussion of how politics and race bear on pro athletes’ perception of Dallas (and Texas) as a potential home. This might not be the place for an informed discussion, seeing how most of us would probably be guessing. But man, it seems to me that this is an issue.
I think after seeing all the stuff about Rick, it was likely Rick. Players talk and players haven't been happy here for a while under him it seems.
Donnie isn't the biggest salesmen either. So the recruiting angle sucked too.
(06-23-2021, 09:16 PM)cjeter24 Wrote: [ -> ]@"mavsluvr" you are right about the getting paid sooner. but allows him less flexibility to get traded and be under contract long enough to be eligible for Supermax on new team.
I think after seeing all the stuff about Rick, it was likely Rick. Players talk and players haven't been happy here for a while under him it seems.
Donnie isn't the biggest salesmen either. So the recruiting angle sucked too.
I think most of the big-name free agents over the last 10 years follow two patterns:
1. They stay with their current team where they can make the most money
Or
2. They congregate to the handful of destinations cities. Miami, Los Angeles, And now Brooklyn. And in the case of KD, joined a superteam in Golden State.
And let’s not forget that we had Deron Williams in the bag before Cuban couldn’t be bothered to show up for the meeting. Kemba was going to sign here until Boston came up with the cap space at the last minute due to Al Horford opting out. And I remember way back there was a rumor that Chris Paul and Dwight Howard had talked about joining forces with Dirk here until Howard screwed it up by picking up his player option in Orlando.
(06-23-2021, 02:38 PM)Hypermav Wrote: [ -> ]More like ossified 
I guess I will wait and see but isn't that always the case.
Haha I had to use my dictionary word of the day somehow!
And I'm with you. Wait and see. Hopefully Cuban doesn't raise my blood pressure too much this summer.
"...with a 3+1, he's eligible for the supermax sooner than if he does a 4+1"
I didn't think about this part in our discussion earlier, but this ^ is factually incorrect. The soonest the 3rd contract "supermax" can take effect is after year 8.
And another point I failed to mention, threatening to sign a QO and then walk to supposedly get more money would be an empty threat, inasmuch as a player will NEVER be eligible for a contract that jumps him up to the next tier (so-called supermax eligibility) if he signs a QO and walks.
Luka will sign a 4+1.