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(06-23-2021, 11:42 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]And for the record, just because I loathe the way Cuban has chosen to operate doesn't mean that every move will automatically be the wrong one!

Voulgaris might be really smart.

Mosley might end up being a great coach.

It's just that I believe, personally, there's a ton of evidence that the victories and defeats (of decision making) will happen randomly in the future, as they so often have in the past. I don't see system or process here. At least not in any sense that gives me hope right now.

I am mourning the loss of hope for the organizational approach I would implement. That's all.

"And for the record, just because I loathe the way Cuban has chosen to operate doesn't mean that every move will automatically be the wrong one! "

I think this is a smart view. And I think it applies to analyzing the past as well as the future.

The fact is, Cuban has been (and will continue to be, by all reports and indications), the sole decision-maker for the Mavs' basketball operations. He takes the input of various others (as well as his own counsel), weighs what that tells him, and then makes a decision. As a result, since everything filters through him, the Mavs are limited by his own abilities, biases, and willingness to listen.

Looking backward, they have gotten some things right and had some big successes at times. They did keep Dirk, they did win a title and had a long period of good teams, they did find and draft Luka.

Looking forward, it's understandable that he wants to hire more voices and add opinions before he makes a decision on additional hires.

My comments have been mostly about the fact that this IS how things have operated. Everyone knows it. It is how it is, whether you accept it or not. Now that Cato had the willingness to write about it, anyone who tells you about the Mavs that you trust is willing to say, "Yeah, that's true. It's always been all Cuban." Cuban is big on loyalty, so it's been an open but unpublished truth forever.

I do have criticism of this approach but it isn't that he never can get it right, but that he just doesn't have the personal skills (or perhaps willingness to defer) to run a superior roster-building operation at the highest level in the NBA. I like Cuban. I wish him well. But every decision and weakness impacts the value of everything else you do. It's a very competitive business, and the differences are at the margins. Others seem to have way better ability to work the cap, evaluate, negotiate contracts, and attract talent. With the same guy continuing to lead the way, I'm not sure how they'll fix those deficiencies.

(06-23-2021, 02:03 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]"And for the record, just because I loathe the way Cuban has chosen to operate doesn't mean that every move will automatically be the wrong one! "

I think this is a smart view. And I think it applies to analyzing the past as well as the future.

The fact is, Cuban has been (and will continue to be, by all reports and indications), the sole decision-maker for the Mavs' basketball operations. He takes the input of various others (as well as his own counsel), weighs what that tells him, and then makes a decision. As a result, since everything filters through him, the Mavs are limited by his own abilities, biases, and willingness to listen.

It's understandable that he wants to hire more voices and add opinions before he makes a decision on additional hires.

My criticism of this approach isn't that he never can get it right, but that he just doesn't have the personal skills (or perhaps willingness to defer) to run a superior roster-building operation at the highest level in the NBA. Every decision and weakness impacts the value of everything else you do. It's a very competitive business, and the differences are at the margins. Others seem to have way better ability to work the cap, evaluate, negotiate contracts, and attract talent. With the same guy continuing to lead the way, I'm not sure how they'll fix those deficiencies.

I have no idea how quick or long it takes to turn a roster around...but...assuming Luka signs his rookie Max...if Mark doesnt turn things around with what...2 or 3 years left on his contract?...that Luka and Duffy will force Mark to change his ways or force him to get the guys they want.

I assume Luka is already pretty involved given that he is MJ/Lebron territory...but it seems pretty reasonable that Cubes has a couple of years to figure this out or Luka and Duffy will. Or am I waaaay off base? Mark will let Luka walk?

(06-23-2021, 12:51 PM)JamesConway Wrote: [ -> ]More odds

https://twitter.com/thekobebeef/status/1...70688?s=21

If you bet on Udoka, you lost, because he was just named the Celtics coach.

The Mavs dither around with Forde while other teams get their situations worked out.

can we get Silas back from the Rockets?

I feel bad for him.

I agree with McMahon, that the Mavs probably have 3 more seasons to move to an elite talent level, if they want to keep Luka happy and avoid him starting to make waves and force his way out.

He'll sign a 4+1 extension assuring him over $200M. That means they will have him under contract for final year of current contract, plus 4 more, total of 5 locked in.

If you get to the backside of that time frame, and the Mavs are a low seed team with little to no playoff success, it will mean Luka has already finished 6 Mav years with nothing to show for it, he'll be getting frustrated, and you are counting down on whether he will sign the next deal with you or not. If he (or his agent) makes waves, teams will line up and it can turn ugly really quickly. So they need some significant progress before the next 3 years end.

(06-23-2021, 02:11 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: [ -> ]I assume Luka is already pretty involved given that he is MJ/Lebron territory...but it seems pretty reasonable that Cubes has a couple of years to figure this out or Luka and Duffy will. Or am I waaaay off base? Mark will let Luka walk?

I don't think he has a couple of years to figure it out. The decisions he makes this offseason and next are what bring us to how good the team is in 2 or 3 years. If we spend 5 years of Luka dragging the Mavs to the playoffs and getting beat by better teams with a lesser star then Luka will have a decision to make.

(06-23-2021, 02:23 PM)fifteenth Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think he has a couple of years to figure it out. The decisions he makes this offseason and next are what bring us to how good the team is in 2 or 3 years. If we spend 5 years of Luka dragging the Mavs to the playoffs and getting beat by better teams with a lesser star then Luka will have a decision to make.

What do you attribute the lack of FA talent signing with Dallas to?

(06-23-2021, 11:50 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]But just because he's being obdurate

More like ossified Smile

I guess I will wait and see but isn't that always the case.

(06-23-2021, 02:37 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: [ -> ]What do you attribute the lack of FA talent signing with Dallas to?

Man, I don't know. Not sure if my guesses are better than anyone elses.

2013: Aging Dirk and gutted roster
Later: Aging Dirk and gutted roster
Then: Old man Dirk and bad roster
Then: I don't know. Having Luka but still getting flat out beat by other teams trying to sign the same players, while also trying to keep expiring contracts linned up for Plan Greek Freak.

But at some point you just have to stop and be results oriented. They just haven't been able to attract and sign top players.

Now the Mavs have a top 5 player in the league who appears to be headed to top 3, 2, 1? If they can't attract good players over the next couple of offseasons the conclusion has to be that this next iteration of a Cuban led front office failed like the previous one.

(06-23-2021, 02:37 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: [ -> ]What do you attribute the lack of FA talent signing with Dallas to?

1 Lack of a good salesman who knows how to sell a prospect and close a deal
2 Lack of good cap expertise, to perceive ways to manipulate the roster and create opportunity
3 Lack of expert evaluator who can recognize overlooked available talent to target before they are priced out of reach
4 Give up (and deciding it's not wise to be aggressive), because of 1, 2, and 3

(06-23-2021, 02:56 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]1 Lack of a good salesman who knows how to sell a prospect and close a deal
2 Lack of good cap expertise, to perceive ways to manipulate the roster and create opportunity
3 Lack of expert evaluator who can recognize overlooked available talent to target before they are priced out of reach
4 Give up (and deciding it's not wise to be aggressive), because of 1, 2, and 3

I will be very simplistic. It is clear Mavs are an afterthought when it comes to attractive destinations. Free agents don't see it as an opportunity to win big. They don't trust Mavs are capable of building a winning roster, even when they had a guy like Dirk or when they have a guy like Luka. What is even worse is that even guys that sort of promised to go to Mavs (or Mavs thought they had them) change their mind. Kemba thought Boston is a better opportunity, Green thought Lakers were a better opportunity to name just two most recent examples. Neither trusted Mavs will build a contender.

The reasons for described could be because of all of the above, something more, it doesn't really matter. What I am certain is that the GM and consequently coach selection process as it is going on will not change that perception. Mavs will remain an afterthought. They can forget about top FA from this already poor crop. What they can realistically do is grab a second tier guy (for first tear money) and hope it works. Unless they will go for a value contract like Wright again...

(06-23-2021, 12:50 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]the good news is that if free agency and drafting struggles continue under the new regime, we know exactly who to blame.

Yep, time will tell us a lot and reveal the truth. And honestly we might know quite a bit by September.

(06-23-2021, 03:30 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Yep, time will tell us a lot and reveal the truth. And honestly we might know quite a bit by September.

I think it's fair to say we won't know much about the draft until next year. I'm skeptical that we'll have a GM in place long enough before the draft to buy a pick.

(06-23-2021, 02:11 PM)dynamicalVoid Wrote: [ -> ]I have no idea how quick or long it takes to turn a roster around...but...assuming Luka signs his rookie Max...if Mark doesnt turn things around with what...2 or 3 years left on his contract?...that Luka and Duffy will force Mark to change his ways or force him to get the guys they want.

I assume Luka is already pretty involved given that he is MJ/Lebron territory...but it seems pretty reasonable that Cubes has a couple of years to figure this out or Luka and Duffy will. Or am I waaaay off base? Mark will let Luka walk?

I don't think we can count on Luka and Duffy to figure out what the Mavs need to do and bail Mark out. Luka and Duffy don't have any more power to force the guys they want to come here than Mark does -- less, if anything.

The Mavs need to grab the bull by the horns now.

(06-23-2021, 03:55 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think we can count on Luka and Duffy to figure out what the Mavs need to do and bail Mark out. Luka and Duffy don't have any more power to force the guys they want to come here than Mark does -- less, if anything.

The Mavs need to grab the bull by the horns now.

Yes, I agree. The Luka/Duffy play would be to leave out of frustration after 5 years.

(06-23-2021, 02:22 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with McMahon, that the Mavs probably have 3 more seasons to move to an elite talent level, if they want to keep Luka happy and avoid him starting to make waves and force his way out.

He'll sign a 4+1 extension assuring him over $200M. That means they will have him under contract for final year of current contract, plus 4 more, total of 5 locked in.

If you get to the backside of that time frame, and the Mavs are a low seed team with little to no playoff success, it will mean Luka has already finished 6 Mav years with nothing to show for it, he'll be getting frustrated, and you are counting down on whether he will sign the next deal with you or not. If he (or his agent) makes waves, teams will line up and it can turn ugly really quickly. So they need some significant progress before the next 3 years end.

Dameris thinks that, from a business point of view, it is most likely that Luka will sign a 3+1 extension. The reasons have to do with when he becomes eligible for a super-max contract (the one after the rookie max) and when the TV deal changes. I'll spare everyone the numbers underlying the conclusion, although they are interesting if that sort of thing appeals to you.

That gives the Mavs four seasons, beginning with the next one. However, the last season of Luka's rookie max contract will be a free agency year, and if things aren't going well, you have to be able to trade him that year for a basket of goods or risk losing him for nothing. So, actually, they need to have a contending team solidified by the 2024 playoffs.

As you point out, the clock is ticking.

https://www.patreon.com/mavspod/posts

(06-23-2021, 04:01 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]Dameris thinks that, from a business point of view, it is most likely that Luka will sign a 3+1 extension. The reasons have to do with when he becomes eligible for a super-max contract (the one after the rookie max) and when the TV deal changes. [url=https://www.patreon.com/mavspod/posts][/url]

Dameris is correct that Luka's preference might be for a 3+1 deal.

At the same time, it's a 2-sided negotiation, not a "whatever you want" exercise. The Mavs will put a full 5-year max on the table, with all the bells and whistles.

History tells us that the top players end up getting a compromise at 4+1.

(06-23-2021, 04:22 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]Dameris is correct that Luka's preference might be for a 3+1 deal.

At the same time, it's a 2-sided negotiation, not a "whatever you want" exercise. The Mavs will put a full 5-year max on the table, with all the bells and whistles.

History tells us that the top players end up getting a compromise at 4+1.

Yes, they will.

This year isn't strictly comparable to all the historical years because of the expectation that the cap will spike as a result of the new TV deal.

Brian presents a convincing case that the best option is 3+1 (for any player in these circumstances, not just Luka). I am not saying it couldn't be a 4+1. More that the Mavs shouldn't just assume they have an extra year to figure it out.

(06-23-2021, 04:39 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: [ -> ]1 Brian presents a convincing case that the best option is 3+1 (for any player in these circumstances, not just Luka).

2 I am not saying it couldn't be a 4+1. More that the Mavs shouldn't just assume they have an extra year to figure it out.

1 Yes, but I'm not disagreeing on what Luka might want. I'm instead reminding that what Luka prefers is not the ONLY thing that will determine the contract length and terms. It is not a one-party decision.
2 Don't forget the Mavs should know the terms of the upcoming Luka deal (and its ramifications) very quickly, perhaps already, so they won't need to assume anything. And I would expect the Mavs already see this summer as one of urgency, so I doubt a 3+1 or a 4+1 or a 5 will change that approach, whatever it is.

(06-23-2021, 05:05 PM)F Gump Wrote: [ -> ]1 Yes, but I'm not disagreeing on what Luka might want. I'm instead reminding that what Luka prefers is not the ONLY thing that will determine the contract length and terms. It is not a one-party decision.

Well, as far as this goes, I think it pretty much is, as a de facto matter. The Mavs aren't going to let Luka walk if he insists on a 3+1 instead of a 4+1, especially if they see the business sense in it. Maybe they'll surprise me and make him take the QO instead, who knows, but that would be really self-destructive, imho.

2 Don't forget the Mavs should know the terms of the upcoming Luka deal (and its ramifications) very quickly, perhaps already, so they won't need to assume anything. And I would expect the Mavs already see this summer as one of urgency, so I doubt a 3+1 or a 4+1 or a 5 will change that approach, whatever it is.

Yes, they will know that. Perhaps I should have phrased it in terms of our fan discussions -- as we do our armchair planning, we should be fully aware that the team doesn't necessarily have five or six years to fiddle around. (Realize you didn't say they did.)

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