(01-25-2020, 08:18 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-25-2020, 07:09 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]I think bench is quiet important part of making a deep run into playoffs. So far the bench has not played nearly as well as we thought initially with this roster. We all thought they would dominate, but they don't. Its important to identify why and try to create a better bench unit. It seems also there are fit issues among the bench players. Wright, Brunson, JJB, Curry, it is a small unit. And JJ has not produced as hoped. Boban is great offensively, but not defensively.
Mavs bench ranks 5th in PPG and 2nd in net rating. Compared to other teams the bench has been the Mavs biggest strength.
They have put of these numbers early in season. And mostly in single games where they have been amazing. But for very long stretches especially for last 15 games in most games whenever they came in they blew the lead. So i really disagree. They have ability to explode in single games which push their numbers up. That is the reason for the stat. But they are not consistent at all, epecially against good competition. Find the stat on consistency and how many leads they blew and this will be more revealing.
It has been extremely annoying to see the starts gain the lead in so many games, and the bench blew the lead.
Against tough opponents in playoffs, they are not a strenth at all, and it would be great to address this to get a better and way more consistent bench.
(01-25-2020, 07:40 AM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]To be honest the more I think about it the more I think a RoCo for Wright+ swap makes sense for both teams. Delon is a good player but it's a tough fit for him here since he can't shoot off-ball with Luka and he has to share the ball with multiple other bench guys. He could have a much bigger role in Minny. And getting RoCo means we could move DoDo to the bench and clear up the guard logjam.
Would be amazing. I am not completely sold on the idea that the Wolves have to trade RoCo at all. Wright would be a good fit for them but does he move the needle enough for them? I think if Mavs miss out this time and RoCo isn't traded they might get another crack in the summer when they will have a 1st round pick to throw at them as well.
(01-25-2020, 08:51 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ] (01-25-2020, 08:18 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-25-2020, 07:09 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]I think bench is quiet important part of making a deep run into playoffs. So far the bench has not played nearly as well as we thought initially with this roster. We all thought they would dominate, but they don't. Its important to identify why and try to create a better bench unit. It seems also there are fit issues among the bench players. Wright, Brunson, JJB, Curry, it is a small unit. And JJ has not produced as hoped. Boban is great offensively, but not defensively.
Mavs bench ranks 5th in PPG and 2nd in net rating. Compared to other teams the bench has been the Mavs biggest strength.
They have put of these numbers early in season. And mostly in single games where they have been amazing. But for very long stretches especially for last 15 games in most games whenever they came in they blew the lead. So i really disagree.
Let's think back...15 games...I wonder if anything unusual happened during those 15 games. Like KP missing 10 of them with KP AND THJ missing 3. Immediately before that Luka was missing games. I wonder if any of those things impacted the bench. Nah, probably not.
Personally, I hate to lose any of our players, because I really like this team, but you have to give to get. If they'd take Lee,Jackson,GS 2nd rounder...that would be great, but that was a long shot and we'd have to take Dieng.
I DON'T want to give up Wright, because he's got that Marcus Smart defensive quality that no one else on our team has. I love Jalen Brunson, but of all the PGs, he makes the most sense, because he really does deserve a shot a being a starter. I really think, he's perfect for a team with a lot of talent that needs a leader with "it" factor, where he doesn't have to be the hero, but he can manage the "heroes", per se.
I think Brunson would get Roco here, considering where they are at. I don't love that....because Brunson is a keeper, but that's probably what it will take.
(01-25-2020, 08:51 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ] (01-25-2020, 08:18 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-25-2020, 07:09 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ]I think bench is quiet important part of making a deep run into playoffs. So far the bench has not played nearly as well as we thought initially with this roster. We all thought they would dominate, but they don't. Its important to identify why and try to create a better bench unit. It seems also there are fit issues among the bench players. Wright, Brunson, JJB, Curry, it is a small unit. And JJ has not produced as hoped. Boban is great offensively, but not defensively.
Mavs bench ranks 5th in PPG and 2nd in net rating. Compared to other teams the bench has been the Mavs biggest strength.
They have put of these numbers early in season. And mostly in single games where they have been amazing. But for very long stretches especially for last 15 games in most games whenever they came in they blew the lead. So i really disagree. They have ability to explode in single games which push their numbers up. That is the reason for the stat. But they are not consistent at all, epecially against good competition. Find the stat on consistency and how many leads they blew and this will be more revealing.
It has been extremely annoying to see the starts gain the lead in so many games, and the bench blew the lead.
Against tough opponents in playoffs, they are not a strenth at all, and it would be great to address this to get a better and way more consistent bench.
That´s what happens when a team suffers from injuries. Luka and KP both missed games and were replaced by bench players. Forcing RC to go even deeper into the depth chart (Boban, JJB) or give more minutes to players that don´t really deserve them based on recent performances (Jackson).
At full strength the Mavs bench is easily top 3 in the league. Probably second behind the Clippers. Maybe slightly worse than Miamis.
Against tough opponents in the playoffs the bench will always struggle because opponents play shorter rotations. Mavs might stay 10 deep because the difference between our 4th/5th best player and the 8th/9th best player is marginal but the Lakers or Rockets will probably play 6-7 deep.
It´s not about finding another bench piece. It is about finding another starter that can move players like Curry or DFS back to the bench.
What are other wing defenders aside from RoCo?
Veteran short term solution: Ariza (POR), Harkless (LAC), Iguodala (MEM), Gay (SAS).
Good young project: Bridges (PHO), Bembry (ATL), Culver (MIN), Winslow (MIA), Hutchinson (CHI), McCaw (TOR).
Established 3&D player: Anunoby (TOR), Oubre (PHO), Crowder (MEM), Ingles (UTA), Prince (BRO), Porter Jr (CHI).
Feel free to add REALISTIC players to that list.
(01-25-2020, 09:21 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]That´s what happens when a team suffers from injuries. Luka and KP both missed games and were replaced by bench players. Forcing RC to go even deeper into the depth chart (Boban, JJB) or give more minutes to players that don´t really deserve them based on recent performances (Jackson).
At full strength the Mavs bench is easily top 3 in the league. Probably second behind the Clippers. Maybe slightly worse than Miamis.
Against tough opponents in the playoffs the bench will always struggle because opponents play shorter rotations. Mavs might stay 10 deep because the difference between our 4th/5th best player and the 8th/9th best player is marginal but the Lakers or Rockets will probably play 6-7 deep.
It´s not about finding another bench piece. It is about finding another starter that can move players like Curry or DFS back to the bench.
I was mainly talking about the long stretch of games where Luka and KP both were fine. Even in those games, they consistently blew deals, so that doesnt hold.
In case of injuries, the bench both needs to provide a new starter and still perform well.
Getting isolated single good games where they go crazy for ton of points and 3s get them lots of PPG, but that does not mean a good bench, or lots of wins.
Only very early in the season, the first games, there were instances where they kept the leads, and where they brought us back from deficits. That was the only instances i can recall that they won the game for us.
Its not a great bench. Its a mediocore to bad bench. Dont look at PPG. But rather how they keep leads and how they come back from deficits, and even more importanty how consistent they are at that and how they contribute to winning.
Also look mainly on where the entire bench is in. Not where a single player is in together with Luka and KP. Where the entire bench came in, they are regularly blowing leads and that I can recall from the games I dont need a stat for that.
(01-25-2020, 09:37 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ] (01-25-2020, 09:21 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]That´s what happens when a team suffers from injuries. Luka and KP both missed games and were replaced by bench players. Forcing RC to go even deeper into the depth chart (Boban, JJB) or give more minutes to players that don´t really deserve them based on recent performances (Jackson).
At full strength the Mavs bench is easily top 3 in the league. Probably second behind the Clippers. Maybe slightly worse than Miamis.
Against tough opponents in the playoffs the bench will always struggle because opponents play shorter rotations. Mavs might stay 10 deep because the difference between our 4th/5th best player and the 8th/9th best player is marginal but the Lakers or Rockets will probably play 6-7 deep.
It´s not about finding another bench piece. It is about finding another starter that can move players like Curry or DFS back to the bench.
I was mainly talking about the long stretch of games where Luka and KP both were fine. Even in those games, they consistently blew deals, so that doesnt hold.
In case of injuries, the bench both needs to provide a new starter and still perform well.
Getting isolated single good games where they go crazy for ton of points and 3s get them lots of PPG, but that does not mean a good bench, or lots of wins.
Only very early in the season, the first games, there were instances where they kept the leads, and where they brought us back from deficits. That was the only instances i can recall that they won the game for us.
Its not a great bench. Its a mediocore to bad bench. Dont look at PPG. But rather how they keep leads and how they come back from deficits, and even more importanty how consistent they are at that and how they contribute to winning.
Also look mainly on where the entire bench is in. Not where a single player is in together with Luka and KP. Where the entire bench came in, they are regularly blowing leads and that I can recall from the games I dont need a stat for that.
Gotcha. I need to bring up numbers. You don´t need them because you have the eyetest.
You mentioned the last 15 games. Now it suddenly is the stretch prior to them. I am not only looking at PPG. I am looking at the net rating and even in the stretch where KP and Luka missed games the bench did not have a negative net rating. In the stretch prior to the injuries the bench was a solid +3.7 and ranked 4th in the league (12/1-12/24).
In case of injuries the entire team gets worse. Not only the starters. The bench as well. I would love to see a team that can easily replace Doncic or KP without getting any worse. And no the allstar team does not count.
The numbers disagree with you, my eyetest disagrees with you. We can argue about them not being as good as the number suggest but calling the bench mediocre to bad is laughable.
(01-25-2020, 09:29 AM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]What are other wing defenders aside from RoCo?
Veteran short term solution: Ariza (POR), Harkless (LAC), Iguodala (MEM), Gay (SAS).
Good young project: Bridges (PHO), Bembry (ATL), Culver (MIN), Winslow (MIA), Hutchinson (CHI), McCaw (TOR).
Established 3&D player: Anunoby (TOR), Oubre (PHO), Crowder (MEM), Ingles (UTA), Prince (BRO), Porter Jr (CHI).
Feel free to add REALISTIC players to that list.
Thad Young
(01-25-2020, 09:56 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]The numbers disagree with you, my eyetest disagrees with you. We can argue about them not being as good as the number suggest but calling the bench mediocre to bad is laughable.
You are looking at wrong numbers. Find the right ones and then they are indeed useful. How many leads they blow. How consistent they are. All you mention is net rating and total points, which is useless in terms of how many games they help winning. You can accumulate in one game ton of points and be terrible in the next ten. Thats exactly what is going on here. Lots of points scored, lots of points they give. One mind blowing game by the bench, and theb many average and bad where they cant keep the leads from the starters. Still the PPG and net rating total looks good. The stretch goes from alomst beginning of the season. It was only in the first games of the season they contributed to winning a lot. Eye test is great and it is backed up by numbers if you find the right ones. The bench doesnt win games for us regularly, and they regularly blow the leads that the starters make. If you find that stat to back it up, then please Id like to see it. And the total bench at the same time, not one bench player coming in when Luka is in.
(01-25-2020, 09:29 AM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]What are other wing defenders aside from RoCo?
Veteran short term solution: Ariza (POR), Harkless (LAC), Iguodala (MEM), Gay (SAS).
Good young project: Bridges (PHO), Bembry (ATL), Culver (MIN), Winslow (MIA), Hutchinson (CHI), McCaw (TOR).
Established 3&D player: Anunoby (TOR), Oubre (PHO), Crowder (MEM), Ingles (UTA), Prince (BRO), Porter Jr (CHI).
Feel free to add REALISTIC players to that list.
These are my opinions on availability -- opinions only here.
Ariza isn't getting traded since he just got moved.
Harkless is integral to the Clipps, so it would take too much to get him.
Does Iggy have anything left?
Gay --- is he a decent defender? (I really don't know)
We wont' get Bridges from Phoenix
Bembry (maybe)
Culver (not happening)
Winslow (injured, right? and I don't see Miami trading him anyway)
Hutchison (I don't know anything about him)
McCaw (maybe, don't know much about him)
Anunoby (I don't see Toronto in sell mode)
Oubre (possible)
Crowder is a possibility, I think, but with the way Memphis is playing...who knows?
Ingles (nope - they won't turn him loose)
Prince (hmmm)
Porter Jr (that's a possible -- how's he playing?)
The big question is, do we really need to spend our assets for something mediocre now, or should we wait till summer and go for big game hunting. We will have 2020 1st, 2025 1st, GSW 2nd and decent contracts in the summer. We could add assets by taking Hood, Felicio or similar for our TE and by trading Lee for worse salary (Dedmon, Dieng).
For me:
- Iggy, Ariza, Harkless, Gay, Hutchinson, McCaw, Crowder represent very marginal improvement not really worth any assets.
- Ingles, Prince, Oubre, Winslow are not realistic to happen
- Bembry, Culver, Bridges, Anunoby are young prospects cherrished by their teams, so probably very expensive to obtain
- RoCo: great upgraded version of DFS to have, but is he really worth all our assets? We would still need to get a good secondary facilitator, which will be even more difficult. I guess Dieng combinations are off the table now (or were never really interesting for Minny or Dallas)
- Porter: huge risk. I am only doing it if there is a big prize involved
- Young: a little better than first group of guys for me, but I wouldn't pay much for him. Wright and GSW 2nd is more than fair value. Lee+GSW2nd is good.
Than we have a group of guys that are a little less D but adds secondary facilitating (or just excellent shooting in case of Bertans):
- Bogi
- Galinari
- Bertans
- Fournier
We could also think a bit more long term with some cheaper and younger options:
- Beasley, Lonnie Walker, J. Hernangomez,...
(01-25-2020, 10:18 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ] (01-25-2020, 09:56 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]The numbers disagree with you, my eyetest disagrees with you. We can argue about them not being as good as the number suggest but calling the bench mediocre to bad is laughable.
You are looking at wrong numbers. Find the right ones and then they are indeed useful. How many leads they blow. How consistent they are. All you mention is net rating and total points, which is useless in terms of how many games they help winning. You can accumulate in one game ton of points and be terrible in the next ten. Thats exactly what is going on here. Lots of points scored, lots of points they give. One mind blowing game by the bench, and theb many average and bad where they cant keep the leads from the starters. Still the PPG and net rating total looks good. The stretch goes from alomst beginning of the season. It was only in the first games of the season they contributed to winning a lot. Eye test is great and it is backed up by numbers if you find the right ones. The bench doesnt win games for us regularly, and they regularly blow the leads that the starters make. If you find that stat to back it up, then please Id like to see it. And the total bench at the same time, not one bench player coming in when Luka is in.
Why don´t you provide the numbers yourself and actually make a case that backs up your opinion? I cannot find them.
I can tell you that the Mavs bench outscored the opponents bench in 9 games in january and only was outscored 2 times. But that probably won´t convince you as well.
(01-25-2020, 10:52 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]The big question is, do we really need to spend our assets for something mediocre now, or should we wait till summer and go for big game hunting.
- Young: a little better than first group of guys for me, but I wouldn't pay much for him. Wright and GSW 2nd is more than fair value. Lee+GSW2nd is good.
Given Young's contract runs two more years, I don't think you have to give up anything of value. In fact, Lee for Young straight up probably requires some kind of a tip on Chicago's part. Not sure which reporter said we might have interest in a veteran locker room leader (check) who can play the 3 or the 4 (check) and scores about 15 a game (exactly Young's career per 36 scoring number). But other than his 21/22 contract number Young is a pretty good fit. He'd be that guy you'd put on Leonard or Lebron in playoff games against the LA teams.
The thing that draws me to Chicago is I really like Sato (or Saty if you are from Europe) and think he's a better fit than Wright. That would be the tip for me. Lee for Young and Wright for Sato. As I often say, someone smarter than me can figure out the picks required, if any.
(01-25-2020, 10:52 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]The big question is, do we really need to spend our assets for something mediocre now, or should we wait till summer and go for big game hunting. We will have 2020 1st, 2025 1st, GSW 2nd and decent contracts in the summer. We could add assets by taking Hood, Felicio or similar for our TE and by trading Lee for worse salary (Dedmon, Dieng)...
I think we have a timing issue: The best asset available to Dallas is the 2020 pick; however we can't trade it until the selection has been made (Unless we get a pick swap).
By then the two best ballast options, Lee and the Barnes TPE, will no longer be available for us to take salary without giving up actual players.
That said, we need to figure out a way to cash in Lee/TPE balance for an asset.
I'm greedy that way... Barnes has already netted Jackson, Wright, and WCS. Who would not have taken that deal last year???
(01-25-2020, 11:29 AM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: [ -> ]That said, we need to figure out a way to cash in Lee/TPE balance for an asset.
I'm greedy that way... Barnes has already netted Jackson, Wright, and WCS. Who would not have taken that deal last year???
Interesting.
(01-25-2020, 11:29 AM)SkenfromLMF Wrote: [ -> ]Barnes has already netted Jackson, Wright, and WCS
To be honest, we paid Barnes and 4 second rounders for those three.
(01-25-2020, 11:29 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]I really like Sato
He is good. However, I think having 3 playable PG is too much. It already shows there are not enough minutes for everyone.
I think we need to make this team a bit more top heavy, having some 7-8 guys as main rotation while the others are back ups capable of jumping in specific situations (rest, fit, surprise,...). In this light, we should replace one of Wright/Brunson/Curry with a third string reserve and use the assets gained to improve other positions of need. We know Barea is excellent for limited minutes here and there. I would give Reaves similar role next season, if they believe in him.
(01-25-2020, 11:07 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Why don´t you provide the numbers yourself and actually make a case that backs up your opinion? I cannot find them.
I can tell you that the Mavs bench outscored the opponents bench in 9 games in january and only was outscored 2 times. But that probably won´t convince you as well.
We both do not have the numbers it seems. So only the eye test is left. My eye test said throughout the season they blew a lot of good leads made by starters. Whenever Luka was out, we were consistently losing points in many games. Bench players that tend to come in alone along with Luka and KP, tend to do well as he creates a lot for them. That accumulates "bench" stats, but is really not the real bench stat that we need to look at. Real bench stat is the entire starting unit being out especially Luka and KP. In those situations, i can recall many more blown leads than deficits regained. I can recall two times early in season where bench unit on their own got us back in the game and thats it. When the entire bench unit is in, without Luka, they did not do well at all in general. They tend to explode at times in certain games, but consistently they get outplayed. Bench players that are on the court with Luka and KP tend to do well, and that contributes to stats, but that's not so interesting. The interesting thing is how the bench unit alone performs.
(01-25-2020, 10:52 AM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]The big question is, do we really need to spend our assets for something mediocre now, or should we wait till summer and go for big game hunting. We will have 2020 1st, 2025 1st, GSW 2nd and decent contracts in the summer. We could add assets by taking Hood, Felicio or similar for our TE and by trading Lee for worse salary (Dedmon, Dieng).
For me:
- Iggy, Ariza, Harkless, Gay, Hutchinson, McCaw, Crowder represent very marginal improvement not really worth any assets.
- Ingles, Prince, Oubre, Winslow are not realistic to happen
- Bembry, Culver, Bridges, Anunoby are young prospects cherrished by their teams, so probably very expensive to obtain
- RoCo: great upgraded version of DFS to have, but is he really worth all our assets? We would still need to get a good secondary facilitator, which will be even more difficult. I guess Dieng combinations are off the table now (or were never really interesting for Minny or Dallas)
- Porter: huge risk. I am only doing it if there is a big prize involved
- Young: a little better than first group of guys for me, but I wouldn't pay much for him. Wright and GSW 2nd is more than fair value. Lee+GSW2nd is good.
Than we have a group of guys that are a little less D but adds secondary facilitating (or just excellent shooting in case of Bertans):
- Bogi
- Galinari
- Bertans
- Fournier
We could also think a bit more long term with some cheaper and younger options:
- Beasley, Lonnie Walker, J. Hernangomez,...
I think we might be able to kill 2 birds with 1 stone by going the Chi route. Sat hasn't been someone who is talked about as a trade piece, but from some of the reports OPJ is one they would love to move on from. I think OPJ could be a better starter than DFS, just on a HORRIBLY bad contract. I don't need to add LM or WCJ on the trade I previously talked about. However, I think bringing in someone like Bog or Sat creates an issue with THJ and that player starting. Which one would start and which comes off the bench? That is why I proposed THJ and Wright in the outgoing of that trade. THJ for the reason mentioned above and Wright for reasons already discussed.
My new idea centers around Chi wanting to get off of Young's contract as well. If we swap out the LM/WCJ part of the trade and add Young in instead that trade would be:
Lee, THJ and Wright for OPJ, Young and Satoransky - straight up, no picks either way.
That gives Chi immediate $8M in cap relief and roughly $40M over the course of the next 2 years (assuming OPJ opts into his contract for next year which is a pretty easy assumption). I think that would be fair value to make them give up Sat. We then have $24M tied up into tradeable pieces in Young and Satoransky where if we did get Giannis to accept a deal with us, they could be included in a SnT deal (or others depending on the negotiations of what Mil would want).
Our rotation shapes up to look like this:
Luka/JB
Sat/Curry
OPJ/DFS
Maxi/Young (you could switch these 2 so the bench roles stay closer to the starter roles)
KP/WCS
Summertime comes and you decide after WCS has opted out because we have raised his value by him being on the team whether or not you want to keep him, or let him go for a lesser talent/contract so you can wait for Powell to return.
(01-25-2020, 11:56 AM)burekemde Wrote: [ -> ] (01-25-2020, 11:07 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Why don´t you provide the numbers yourself and actually make a case that backs up your opinion? I cannot find them.
I can tell you that the Mavs bench outscored the opponents bench in 9 games in january and only was outscored 2 times. But that probably won´t convince you as well.
We both do not have the numbers it seems. So only the eye test is left. My eye test said throughout the season they blew a lot of good leads made by starters. Whenever Luka was out, we were consistently losing points in many games. Bench players that tend to come in alone along with Luka and KP, tend to do well as he creates a lot for them. That accumulates "bench" stats, but is really not the real bench stat that we need to look at. Real bench stat is the entire starting unit being out especially Luka and KP. In those situations, i can recall many more blown leads than deficits regained. I can recall two times early in season where bench unit on their own got us back in the game and thats it. When the entire bench unit is in, without Luka, they did not do well at all in general. They tend to explode at times in certain games, but consistently they get outplayed. Bench players that are on the court with Luka and KP tend to do well, and that contributes to stats, but that's not so interesting. The interesting thing is how the bench unit alone performs.
But that is not how it works. No team in the league is running all starters or all bench lineups. Bench also doesn´t exclusively play vs bench. The Mavs only have to players averaging 30+ (starter minutes), 3 if you include DFS (29min). They have 5 more players averaging 20+ minutes.
If you think that lineups without KP and Doncic are getting blown out I would advise you take a look at lineup data. Overall the team is outscoring opponents without both on the floor and there are multiple lineups without them that have great +/- numbers.