MavsBoard

Good stuff Juanc.

I'm not sure why his barely discuss here. He passes most of the metrics.

(11-14-2020, 08:22 AM)juanc Wrote: [ -> ]PS - Here you have his interview with Mike Schmitz, I realy like what I hear from him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nm_WWQcy1WA&t=993s

This might be the most unprofessional shallow draft take ever, but he moves kinda strange/slow with a massive knee brace and he just looks goofy. At least he has a good wingspan.

(11-14-2020, 09:56 AM)FunkBoreland Wrote: [ -> ]Good stuff Juanc.

I'm not sure why his barely discuss here. He passes most of the metrics.

We were on him heavily for a few weeks. I watched like 3 hours of film on him that @"Kammrath" posted and came away very unimpressed. I think he's another Justin Anderson, myself.

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@"Kammrath" how historically accurate is Chad Ford?

He's the inventor of the mock draft, so I feel like he has probably been one of the better predictors over the years, but his past two mocks have had the Mavs draft-and-stashing Bolmaro at #18! Talk me off of this ledge.

(11-14-2020, 11:26 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-14-2020, 09:56 AM)FunkBoreland Wrote: [ -> ]Good stuff Juanc.

I'm not sure why his barely discuss here. He passes most of the metrics.

We were on him heavily for a few weeks. I watched like 3 hours of film on him that @"Kammrath" posted and came away very unimpressed. I think he's another Justin Anderson, myself.

As a Justin Anderson fanboy, I have to add unathletic to justify liking one and not the other.

On another topic:
People say Tyrell Terry might be the next Trae Young/Steph Curry, but a wingspan of less than 6´2.    That´s 1-2 inches shorter than those two. I guess the Mavs would be a good situation for him personally, cause he should be pretty open most of the time, but I don´t know.

I´m pretty convinced they´ll take Saddiy Beq at #18, unless they think there is some superstar potential in another guy (Pokusevski?, Hampton?).

The Ringer guys made the argument that (recently) Villanova guys just don´t bust. Brunson, Bridges, DiVincenzo, Paschall all played relatively quickly, cause they run an NBA oriented system there.

Add the positive experience with Brunson and our general need, he seems the most likely safe pick.

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(11-14-2020, 11:26 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-14-2020, 09:56 AM)FunkBoreland Wrote: [ -> ]Good stuff Juanc.

I'm not sure why his barely discuss here. He passes most of the metrics.

We were on him heavily for a few weeks. I watched like 3 hours of film on him that @"Kammrath" posted and came away very unimpressed. I think he's another Justin Anderson, myself.

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@"Kammrath" how historically accurate is Chad Ford?

He's the inventor of the mock draft, so I feel like he has probably been one of the better predictors over the years, but his past two mocks have had the Mavs draft-and-stashing Bolmaro at #18! Talk me off of this ledge.

He´s 100% accurate after he has edited his mock after the actual draft (which happened multiple times).

I think Bolmaro would be a candidate at #31. I don´t think he finds himself in the top 20 talent-wise, similar to Maledon, but they could be late 1st round picks, just for the stash option.

(11-14-2020, 11:36 AM)Mavs2019 Wrote: [ -> ]I´m pretty convinced they´ll take Saddiy Beq at #18

I am pretty sure that he won´t make it to #18.

(11-14-2020, 11:26 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-14-2020, 09:56 AM)FunkBoreland Wrote: [ -> ]Good stuff Juanc.

I'm not sure why his barely discuss here. He passes most of the metrics.

We were on him heavily for a few weeks. I watched like 3 hours of film on him that @"Kammrath" posted and came away very unimpressed. I think he's another Justin Anderson, myself.

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Green and Anderson are the exact opposite. Anderson came in the league with his body being almost a finished product. Green, as I have already mentioned is still growing/getting used to his body. There is still plenty of room for improvement with him. I wouldn't be shocked if he would still grow an inch..

Saddiq Bey on the other hand is a guy I don't really like. Let me start by saying that at the beginning I was realy high on him, but the more I watch the tape, the more I would stay away from him. I just think that he isn't quick enough to guard wings in the NBA. And his scoring game also isn't anything special. Don't see much of an upside in him.
He is more Omari Spellman than he is Mikal Bridges, at least in my eyes. I see him as an meh to OK role player, nothing more

@"juanc" sorry to be unclear. I didn't articulate the point very well.

With Green and Anderson, I didn't mean to compare the bodies or styles of play so much, I just meant that I think Green will be similarly unaccomplished in the NBA. It's just my opinion. 

I also think the interview you posted made him seem LESS like the type of guy the Mavs like, not more. It's probably unfair to make this judgement based on a limited sample size, but it's not ONLY based on that one interview, either.

He's going to be there at #18, I think, and I wouldn't have a meltdown if they drafted him. But, I wouldn't be very thrilled, either. Give me literally ANY of the other probables over Green. Again, only my opinion!

4 days until the draft.

(11-14-2020, 11:26 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]We were on him heavily for a few weeks. I watched like 3 hours of film on him that @Kammrath posted and came away very unimpressed.

Yeah I was SUPER in on Josh Green when I saw the surface of him (his measurables, some stats, the idea of him as 3&D), but then I watched the film (not just the highlights) of him and totally lost interest. I am just not impressed with his game or his in-game athleticism (some guys test great but in game aren't all that athletic). I will be pretty disappointed if the Mavs draft him (especially at 18), but I will of course root for the best if they do.

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(11-14-2020, 11:26 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]@Kammrath how historically accurate is Chad Ford?

He's the inventor of the mock draft, so I feel like he has probably been one of the better predictors over the years, but his past two mocks have had the Mavs draft-and-stashing Bolmaro at #18! Talk me off of this ledge.

I don't think Ford is nearly as plugged in as he once was, but that is just my feel.

I assume he is just going off reports that the Mavs are "all-in" on the 2021 summer that he is guessing a draft and stash for them to save money. 

I really like Bolmaro, but have enough questions about the potential of his shot to not pull the trigger on him at 18. I think I would take Maledon at 18 if I was taking an international guy. But I am still waffling around in coming to my final evals.

It's legit crazy how we try to evaluate these 1 and done kids on such a ridiculously small sample size of games in a normal year, much less with the circumstances of last year. Wouldn't at all be surprised if Green turns out to way better than people are projecting, who was coming off an injury on top of all that. I like his touch on his defensive intensity and his offensive feel. I saw him compared to a more athletic Jae Crowder, and I would take that all day at #18 in this draft class.

(11-14-2020, 01:50 PM)HanspardsShowerVoice Wrote: [ -> ]It's legit crazy how we try to evaluate these 1 and done kids on such a ridiculously small sample size of games in a normal year, much less with the circumstances of last year.  Wouldn't at all be surprised if Green turns out to way better than people are projecting, who was coming off an injury on top of all that.    I like his touch on his jumper and his floaters.

Your point is a good one. Very true, especially outsiders like us who have access to even less information than the pros. 

But, it's what we're here to do! 

Regarding Green, so much is made about his measurables, but what I saw on the film, which was limited but as Kamm said, more extensive than highlights, was a player who seemed like a small guy trying to play bigger than he is. He kept driving into crowds and trying to play physically, the way Kawhi would, for example, only he seemed way, way too small and weak to do so effectively, even against the college players in those games. This impression of mine was so overwhelming that I double checked his wingspan number in disbelief. Relative to the situations he was putting himself in, the measurables didn't seem to serve him very well, imo. 

So, right there, you can write off (in my opinion) any thought of him being able to get good shots off in the paint at the NBA level. 3&D only, and honestly, the shooting isn't all that impressive either, imo. 

Building on the above, I have a difficult time (for the same reasons) seeing him developing into an effective defender on certain types: George, Leonard, Lebron, etc. Ironically, this opinion is derived because of his physical situation, which is supposed to be the BEST thing about him. I can DEFINITELY see those measurables and lateral quickness being an immediate positive for him in terms of defending GUARDS, and I think those who love his measurables are unconsciously comparing him to people who play those positions. But, I don't believe his handle, shooting or decision making on offense will allow him to get consistent minutes as a guard.

I could go on, but to me, the secret is not to evaluate the whole of what a player is or isn't, it's to try to envision the role he will most likely be given an opportunity to earn in the NBA (especially early on). Does he have the skills to immediately contribute in THAT role? If the answer is no, and he projects as a role player to begin with, I become skeptical that he'll be given the time needed to develop into a functional player. 

ANY of these guys CAN be great players. ANY of them. NONE of them are "mirages." The issue is: can they continually pass tests, each time earning their right to stay in the show a little longer, until finally they've "arrived" and no longer have to worry about keeping their jobs? SO MUCH of that depends on how the drafting team envisions using him, whether the player's training, talents and experience prepare him for that role, and (maybe most important) how similarly the team's vision of his future role matches the player's.

My FINAL Mavs-centric draft board (meaning I am listing the guys I think are a good fit in the organization and possible to get in the right situation).

I have 9 guys I am grading as first rounders for the Mavs to try to get (3 as trade-up targets and 6 as #18 targets) and then I have 6 guys I am grading for the 2nd round. 


Trade-up Targets

1) Killian Hayes -- 19.3 years -- 6'5" | 6'8" wingspan

• is one of the potential stars in this draft IMO...already pretty dominant while having no right hand to speak of and being terrible in catch and shoot situations (0.67 PPP)...with improvement in those two areas I think he would be the 3rd star the Mavs need
  
• good off the dribble (0.99 PPP) and around the rim in the half court (1.25 PPP)
  
• when he is locked-in he is a very good on-ball and off-ball defender 
  

2) Devin Vassell -- 20.2 years -- 6'7" | 6'10" wingspan *UNOFFICIAL*

• is the exact wing defender the Mavs need in the starting lineup with a great three ball
  
• elite in catch and shoot (1.22 PPP) and transition (1.41 PPP)
  
• great on-ball defender (0.50 PPP)
  

3) Tyrese Haliburton -- 20.7 years -- 6'5" | 6'7.5" wingspan *UNOFFICIAL*

• great potential to be 3rd banana/2nd creator and great defender but more of a role-player than star
  
• elite in spot up (1.43 PPP) and catch and shoot (1.49 PPP)
  
• great on-ball defender (0.50 PPP)
  

Draft at #18 Targets

4) R.J. Hampton -- 19.8 years -- 6'5" | 6'7" wingspan *UNOFFICIAL*

• if his shooting improvement is legit...TAKE all day, one of the highest ceilings in the draft
  
• probably the fastest player in the draft
  
• can get to the rim at will in basically any situation, something most guys can not do, but needs to improve finishing at the rim a whole lot
  

5) Tyler Bey -- 22.8 years -- 6'6", 6'7" w/ shoes | 7'1.5" wingspan

• athletic wing prospect who can be a small ball big as well, the kind of versatile player that can bring team defense together
  
• great around the rim (1.33 PPP) and good at spot up (1.02 PPP) and elite mid-range jump shot (1.14 PPP)
  
• solid post defender (0.82 PPP) and great one-on-one on the perimeter (0.48 PPP)
  

6) Theo Maledon -- 19.4 years -- 6'4", 6'5" w/ shoes | 6'8.75" wingspan

• young player that played in the EuroLeague with a hurt shooting shoulder and showed flashes of great potential as a creator, shooter, and defender
  
• good at the rim (1.23 PPP), at spot up (1.0 PPP), and pick and roll (0.87 PPP)
  
• promising defender with lots of potential for growth to guard 1-3
  

7) Saddiq Bey -- 21.6 years -- 6'8" | 6'10" wingspan *UNOFFICIAL*

• great 3&D player, but his lack of athleticism, explosiveness, and lateral quickness in game film is concerning
  
• elite in transition (1.39 PPP) and in spot up (1.31 PPP) and great in pick and roll (0.94 PPP)
  
• great one-on-one defender (0.56 PPP)
  

8) Aaron Nesmith -- 21.1 years -- 6'6" | 6'10" wingspan *UNOFFICIAL*

• his shooting numbers are just insane (relatively small sample size though) and he shows enough potential as a defender to intrigue me
  
• elite at spot up (1.23 PPP), catch and shoot (1.64 PPP), and off screens (0.93 PPP) and good off dribble (0.92 PPP)
  
• solid defender one-on-one (0.71)
  

9) Precious Achiuwa -- 21.2 years -- 6'7.5, "6'8.75" w/ shoes | 7'0.75" wingspan

• all the athletic tools and with the right development has the potential to be the exact kind of big the Mavs need with the ability to rim roll and defend 1-5 on the switch
  
• good on-ball defender (0.61 PPP)
  

Draft at #31 (or another 2nd round pick) Targets 

10) Leandro Bolmaro -- 20.2 years -- 6'7" | 6'8" wingspan *UNOFFICIAL*

• unselfish player who can facilitate when needed
  
• shot shows promise but needs lots of work
  
• great, hard nosed, and competitive defender
  

11) Abdoulaye N'Doye -- 22.7 years -- 6'7" | 7'2.5" wingspan *UNOFFICIAL*

• elite catch and shoot (1.63 PPP) and around the rim (1.45 PPP)
  
• good defender with versatility, even a solid defender in the post (0.82 PPP)
  

12) Robert Woodard II -- 21.1 years -- 6'5.5", 6'7" w/ shoes | 7'2" wingspan

• great around the rim (1.29 PPP) and at good catch and shoot (1.08 PPP)
  
• good one-on-one defender (0.62 PPP) who gave up only 32.3% on all FG attempts
  

13) Immanuel Quickley -- 21.4 years -- 6'2", 6'3" w/ shoes | 6'8.25" wingspan

• great at spot up (1.08 PPP), pick and roll (0.91), and with the floater (0.94 PPP) and elite off the dribble (1.38 PPP)
  
• great one-on-one defender (0.48 PPP)
  

14) Ty-Shon Alexander -- 22.4 years -- 6'2", 6'4" w/ shoes | 6'8" wingspan

• 40% three point shooter who is better off-ball
  
• elite overall defender (opponents shot 30.3%, 0.62 PPP)
  

15) Paul Reed -- 21.4 years -- 6'8", 6'9.25" w/shoes | 7'2" wingspan

• great around the rim (1.29 PPP)
  
• good post defender (0.78 PPP) and one-on-one (0.55 PPP)
  

Really well done, @"Kammrath". Thanks for all your work in this thread over recent weeks/months.

That Nesmith chart is love personified.

(11-13-2020, 06:35 PM)jesusshuttlesworth82 Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/swishcultures_/statu...5977361410

Im like 95% sure this is at my local JCC

Likely my final revision to my big board. I think Kamm is preparing himself for disappointment with how few names he puts on his board. Got to be open-minded. And hope the Mavs' scouting deserves confidence.

Do not want for the Mavs, but they'll push the guys I do want down:
1) Ball
2) Edwards
3) Toppin
4) Wiseman
5) Williams (he won't go top 5, but he could go 8 or 9, and almost certainly will be drafted before 18)

Trade-up targets (if they slip to 6 or lower) Offer the farm, if you are convinced the guy won't bust:
6) Okongwu
7) Hayes
8) Avdija

Trade-up targets (if they slip to 10 or lower) Package 18, 31, and Brunson:
9) Vassell 
10) Haliburton

Trade-up targets (if they slip to 12 or lower) Package 18 with either 31 or Brunson, if a guy is available past 12 but above 18, still try to get a pick above 18 packaging 31:
11) Okoro
12) Smith
13) Terry
14) S. Bey
15) Achiuwa

Pick at 18 if you can't trade up:
16) Nesmith
17) Lewis (speed kills)
18) Maxey
19) T. Bey

Trade for/buy a later first targets (wouldn't take them 18, but if traded down to get another asset or Cuban bought a pick like he said, these are the guys): 
20) Bane
21) Reed
22) Anthony
23) Woodard
24) Green
25) Balmaro
26) Maledon

Draft at 31 if none of the above available:
27) Ramsay
28) Aleksej
29) Alexander
30) Tillman
31) Stewart

Possibilities if we trade for an additional 2nd:
32) Riller
33) Flynn
34) Scrubb
35) Hughes
36) Joe

If I'm Golden State, I'd be really tempted to do Mitchell Robinson and #8 for #2.

https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/stat...2249337857

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https://twitter.com/GregSylvander/status...9317499909

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https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status...4810094592

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https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2917...-nba-draft

(11-13-2020, 01:34 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jo...0498393345

This is a great breakdown of the top 10. I don't agree with everything here, but Duncan is one of the smartest people in the NBA Community, imo. Well worth the listen.

I don't know if you listened all the way to the end, but in the final few minutes they had a similar debate regarding the price of Chris Paul to the Suns.  Hollinger instantly went to  Rubio/Oubre/10 for Paul and 25.  Nate was like wait a minute here.  If I'm Phoenix, my offer is Rubio/Oubre and someone like Ty Jerome.  If OKC has a better offer, put your cards on the table.  Otherwise, we aren't bidding against ourselves.  

Point is the range of things the board discussed doesn't seem too crazy.  Not intending to send you to the hotline, but you do know who Oubre's agent is?  Yep, it is Tobias Harris's dad.  Don't worry, you are probably safe with that Paul Millsap jersey available online in Australia.

I still think this is something Dallas is interested in.  There seemed little hesitation on the part of John or Nate that Paul to Phoenix was real.  The question is price.  To predict that better, you have to know who has the leverage.  Is Nate right and Phoenix is telling OKC how far they will go (and no farther).  Or, is OKC saying they are happy to send Phoenix a star as soon as Phoenix comes up with something OKC likes.