(10-27-2020, 06:35 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (10-27-2020, 09:38 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]The latest Ringer mock
7) Haliburton
10) Vassell
14) Hampton
16) SBey
17) Achiuwa
18) Nesmith
26) Bolmaro
30) Woodard
I am very much IN on Nesmith if he falls to #18.
His shooting will IMMEDIATELY translate and I think he has the body, length, and athleticism to turn into a good wing defender if he puts in the work with improving his technique and footwork and effort.
https://twitter.com/coopmavs/status/1321226236295843842
![[Image: 200.gif]](https://media4.giphy.com/media/Ld0P4AdeSDjoY/200.gif)
The source in the story did not clarify how far into the lottery the Mavs are willing to go. To 14? to 10? to 7? Source didn't say.
The Mavs must REALLY like someone and if they fall they will go for them. That is SUPER exciting to me.
Trying to put the pieces together of the Mavs willing to take on salary for a star, and wanting to trade into the lottery to "win now"
The only teams that I can see that qualify both requirements are
Bulls-#4
Cavs-#5
Pistons-#7
Washington-#9
Spurs #-11
Kings #12 (kinda iffy on this one)
And Boston-#14
Of those, I can't see any of the top 10 guys really being willing to part with their pick for anyone not named Luka and KP. So I'm going to rule out all of those.
That leaves really the Spurs and Celtics.
With the Spurs, Derozan and Aldridge both count as stars, and both are on big contracts. Perhaps the Spurs wouldn't mind going down to 18 if it nets them young guys on cost controlled contracts while simultaneously getting them off their bloated stuff? Both also expire in 2021, so they don't affect the cap space in the Giannis chase. Good plan Have it Both Ways contender.
Now Boston is the one I find the most interesting. The difference from 14 to 18 isn't that big to Boston. And they do have Hayward that qualifies as a star. Perhaps Boston likes some of our young guys like DFS? #14+26+Hayward for DFS+Wright+18+31? That'd be a win for the Mavs, especially if 14 nets them a 3-D guy like Bey.
I'm shocked that the Mavs are actually interested in the draft at all given all the smoke signals saying that the Mavs were guaranteed to trade their pick to win now. I guess those smoke signals never said the Mavs wouldn't get a pick back in return!
(10-27-2020, 08:52 PM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]That leaves really the Spurs and Celtics.
With the Spurs, Derozan and Aldridge both count as stars, and both are on big contracts. Perhaps the Spurs wouldn't mind going down to 18 if it nets them young guys on cost controlled contracts while simultaneously getting them off their bloated stuff? Both also expire in 2021, so they don't affect the cap space in the Giannis chase. Good plan Have it Both Ways contender.
Now Boston is the one I find the most interesting. The difference from 14 to 18 isn't that big to Boston. And they do have Hayward that qualifies as a star. Perhaps Boston likes some of our young guys like DFS? #14+26+Hayward for DFS+Wright+18+31? That'd be a win for the Mavs, especially if 14 nets them a 3-D guy like Bey.
I'm shocked that the Mavs are actually interested in the draft at all given all the smoke signals saying that the Mavs were guaranteed to trade their pick to win now. I guess those smoke signals never said the Mavs wouldn't get a pick back in return!
It would take a lot more than DFS + Wright to match Hayward's salary, but I like where your head is at. Adding an expensive star with an expiring contract while trading up into the lottery would satisfy lots of rumors at once.
(10-27-2020, 09:03 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]expensive star
I don't think expiring contracts are considered as particulary bad salaries. Based on our salaries, I don't think we have a chance to trade for an expensive expiring "star" like Hayward, DeRozan, Porter and Similar. I would look at players with multiyear deals for ideas that fit description.
(10-27-2020, 09:12 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (10-27-2020, 09:03 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]expensive star
I don't think expiring contracts are considered as particulary bad salaries. Based on our salaries, I don't think we have a chance to trade for an expensive expiring "star" like Hayward, DeRozan, Porter and Similar. I would look at players with multiyear deals for ideas that fit description.
I agree to an extent. The reason I keep landing on Hayward is that Boston can't really afford to let him go for nothing. It's not like they'll have cap space, right? Maybe they just want to re-sign Hayward, but if not, I don't expect them to let him expire.
And, I don't think they even have enough potential roster spots for all of their picks to land. It seems pretty clear that they're going to have to do something this off season. I think Boston will be interesting to watch in general, even without the Mavs angle.
(10-27-2020, 09:03 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]It would take a lot more than DFS + Wright to match Hayward's salary, but I like where your head is at. Adding an expensive star with an expiring contract while trading up into the lottery would satisfy lots of rumors at once.
It worked in the trade machine so that's my excuse. But I do think Boston would like to get a little more oomph from any trade involving Hayward. A team so rich in assets can afford to get some mild return once in a while, but that's just not how Boston operates.
It'd probably take a lot more than DFS+Wright+18+31 for Hayward and 2 of Bostons first rounders. I'd bet the Mavs throw in Jackson just because.
(10-27-2020, 09:19 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I agree to an extent. The reason I keep landing on Hayward is that Boston can't really afford to let him go for nothing. It's not like they'll have cap space, right? Maybe they just want to re-sign Hayward, but if not, I don't expect them to let him expire.
And, I don't think they even have enough potential roster spots for all of their picks to land. It seems pretty clear that they're going to have to do something this off season. I think Boston will be interesting to watch in general, even without the Mavs angle.
Couple reason why I think Boston is considering letting Hayward go.
First, they really don't need him. And by that I mean that Hayward's availability for Boston has been almost nonexistent. His first season was a wash with that horrific injury. 2nd season was mainly spent rehabbing said ankle injury, coming off the bench and being a net negative player. Finally in his 3rd season he was an impact player. But the issue is that he plays largely the same role their budding superstar Tatum and up and coming star Brown plays. Hayward is at best a 4th option, playing a role that's already filled. And did I mention that in this last resurgent year, Hayward again went down with an injury missing the entire playoffs and Boston never skipped a beat?
Second, Boston is getting ready to extend Tatum. He's going to command the max. With Brown, Kemba, and now Tatum, Boston is poised to have a large salary bill next season. They can afford it. But the question is why force yourself to pay 34 mil to an oft injured 4th option that really has no bearing to the team success when you can flip him now for some cost controlled role players and not lose any picks?
Again, I doubt Boston is eager to get off of Haywards expiring, but I don't think Hayward will be a Celtic the entire 21' season. Even Bill Simmons postulated about the Celts letting Hayward go because of the bad juju his tenure has had.
(10-27-2020, 09:19 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]The reason I keep landing on Hayward is that Boston can't really afford to let him go for nothing.
Nothing on our roster fits what they need to contend imho. Plus they have a problem with roster spots as it is so taking back 3 or 4 players is not really an option. I think someone like Turner makes a ton of sense for them and Indy might be very interested in trading for Hayward.
(10-27-2020, 09:45 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Nothing on our roster fits what they need to contend imho.
I'm not sure about that. If you're looking for teams who might have a strong interest in Maxi, I bet Boston is pretty high on the list.
(10-27-2020, 10:00 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not sure about that. If you're looking for teams who might have a strong interest in Maxi, I bet Boston is pretty high on the list.
I don't think so. If anything, they need a serious upgrade at center, otherwise they are just fine keeping Hayward.
So again on the report:
1) this comes from "multiple league sources" who are saying that "no one is churning harder" than Donnie (so this is NOT a Mavs source, but other teams saying what the Mavs are up to in their phone calls to them)
- There is no reason to doubt this report because it is coming from multiple places around the league. This doesn't seem to be agent BS or Mavs BS. It is a report on general activity from Donnie's phone calls.
2) "the Mavericks have a strong desire to trade into the lottery (picks 1-14)"
- The "strong" piece jumps out to me. The Mavs must be positioning themselves with possible draft night trade scenarios if a particular player or players fall to certain spots. It doesn't feel like the Mavs would be posturing in this scenario, but they will certainly be tight-lipped about who it is they are interested in. I would suspect we will see NOTHING about the Mavs being connected to any of the guys that might fall in the lottery.
Playing a little "sleuth" on this....
The Mavs have a really good handle on the international talent scene. So who are the international prospects that are most likely to be lottery bound?
- Deni Avdija (Israel)...according to mock drafts he only has a 10% chance of surviving to the 8 pick.
- Killian Hayes (France)...according to mock drafts he has a 40% chance to make it 8....15% to make it to 11....5% to make it to 14.
My gut tells me they are targeting Killian Hayes. He fits the "Kemba" mold in the sense of another creator, but he is big enough to guard 1-3. Based on mocks I think he could be a big slider on draft night if things fall right, sliding to the end of the lottery even. This is shocking to me because I have been assuming the Mavs would never have a shot at him. Shoot, Kevin O'Connor who I respect a lot has Killian as #1 (!) on his big board. Do the Mavs also have him super high and are they positioning themselves to grab him if he does indeed slide?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8nq-wAZGkg
NOTE: The Mavs also have the history of trading for the #5 pick to get Devin Harris who was a Wisconsin boy. So doesn't have to be exclusive to the international scene either. I think this draft more than any other has the chance of some really good players sliding pretty far. It makes sense that the Mavs may have their eye on a guy or two and are getting draft deals lined up just in case a slide happens.
One more thought:
Many of the teams with the top 5 picks are open to trading their pick and moving down. Could the Mavs get clever and find a creative way to come up with the ammo to get that high? IMO,
a top 5 pick will never be cheaper than this year. What would it take to get there though?
For instance, what would the cost be to get #2 from GSW? They need to win NOW (Steph's window is closing fast). Could the Mavs offer anyone not named Luka/KP to them with picks and would be that be enough or even close to enough?
Again, I think the cost to move up this year because of the lack of clear stars is as cheap as it will EVER be.
I'm fascinated to see how the teams hurting financially actually play this. Because you know there are some owners that are hurting right now still. I'd imagine some teams would love some cold hard cash. And some that won't want to take on any sort of new money with a flat cap. I think you see a 1st round pick get bought.
If any of that happens we are lucky to have Cuban as an owner. He was rushing to raise cash when the market was bottoming to invest more in at the bottom. He was on CNBC a bunch in March and April. He made some dang good investments and I'm sure made quite a bit of money.
(10-27-2020, 10:58 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]
Again, I think the cost to move up this year because of the lack of clear stars is as cheap as it will EVER be.
I think this is probably a true statement. But, teams 1-9 with the exception of GS are really bad. Nothing on our roster makes any more sense than making a pick. Most don't really have bad cap situations either. Try as I might, I just can't see anything outside of Hardaway to an impatient bad team moving the needle (and two of those impatient bad teams have had him before). In the Devin Harris draft we gave up the reigning sixth man of the year. We just don't have that right now.
BTW, Hayes or Haliburton would be fine with me.
(10-27-2020, 10:00 PM)Tyler Wrote: [ -> ] (10-27-2020, 09:45 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]Nothing on our roster fits what they need to contend imho.
I'm not sure about that. If you're looking for teams who might have a strong interest in Maxi, I bet Boston is pretty high on the list.
I agree. Any Boston deal starts with Maxi. The issue is finding the other $19mm and getting everyone to opt in if this is to occur prior to the draft. Boston has $141mm in committed salaries before adding draft picks. They have too many contracts to take back multiple players and too much money committed to not try.
What we haven't really explored is a S&T after Hayward opts out (that was part of what was written, but has been ignored). What dollar amount do you take over 3 years if you are Hayward that looks better than $34mm and uncertainty the two years after that?
Is 20/20/20 better than 34/?/?. How about 25/25/25? A S&T is easier to match, but takes draft picks out of the picture. It also means committing to Hayward for 3 years.
(10-28-2020, 07:20 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]But, teams 1-9 with the exception of GS are really bad.
RIGHT, I have been struggling with the same things in my head.
So...
1) Can you offer anything "win now" to GSW (#2) or PHX (#10) that makes them bite? I bet GSW would want Maxi (he would be great with Steph/Klay/Green). Is Maxi enough to be the base for a deal for #2?
2) Can you creatively get a third team involved to get a pick from #3 to #8?
(10-28-2020, 07:20 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]
I agree. Any Boston deal starts with Maxi. The issue is finding the other $19mm and getting everyone to opt in if this is to occur prior to the draft. Boston has $141mm in committed salaries before adding draft picks. They have too many contracts to take back multiple players and too much money committed to not try.
Actually, between Boston and Dallas, there is plenty of draft equity to get a third team to take contracts. At it's core, it could be Maxi to Boston for Hayward with the required matching salaries (not THJ) going to someone like Detroit along with some of Boston's picks.
(10-27-2020, 10:30 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Who do we love?
For me there are 4 or 5 standout guys that I think can be solid to above average role players just based on their skillset. It could take some time for it to happen but if the Mavs draft any of these guys I'd be happy.
Saddiq Bey- 6'8 Forward from Villanova. Mavs love guys from Jay Wright's program. Bey shot 45% from 3 on nearly 6 attempts a game and showed flashes of fantastic defense
Aaron Nesmith- This dude was lights out. He probably had the best shooting season in the history of college ball. He averaged 23 ppg on 51.2/52.2/82. Yes. He literally shot nearly 53% from 3, on 8 attempts a game. He also shot nealy 64% on catch and shoot 3's. He isn't the individual defender that Bey is, but he showed he can be a great team defender and hustles. Would love a guy like him.
Patrick Williams- Big forward from FSU. Came off the bench as a high energy defensive wing that hustled and did all the little things. He isn't a reliable shooter yet, but his mechanics looked good. He was a fantastic on ball defender for FSU and was athletic as all hell.
Leandro Bolmoro- Super polished overseas dude that I think can play a small bench role in the NBA. He isn't overly athletic, but he definitely is cerebral enough to keep up in the NBA imo.
Of course there are others. Wiseman, Halliburton, Vassell but I don't think there are any realistic ways to get them.
(10-28-2020, 07:20 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]But, teams 1-9 with the exception of GS are really bad.
So Kevin O'Connor is reporting today that ATL wants to trade the #6 pick. They already got Capela. They want to start making the playoffs NOW.
If the Mavs like Killian there is a decent shot he is there at #6.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yetkDcYrQoQ
(10-28-2020, 11:04 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ] (10-27-2020, 10:30 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Who do we love?
For me there are 4 or 5 standout guys that I think can be solid to above average role players just based on their skillset. It could take some time for it to happen but if the Mavs draft any of these guys I'd be happy.
Saddiq Bey- 6'8 Forward from Villanova. Mavs love guys from Jay Wright's program. Bey shot 45% from 3 on nearly 6 attempts a game and showed flashes of fantastic defense
Aaron Nesmith- This dude was lights out. He probably had the best shooting season in the history of college ball. He averaged 23 ppg on 51.2/52.2/82. Yes. He literally shot nearly 53% from 3, on 8 attempts a game. He also shot nealy 64% on catch and shoot 3's. He isn't the individual defender that Bey is, but he showed he can be a great team defender and hustles. Would love a guy like him.
Patrick Williams- Big forward from FSU. Came off the bench as a high energy defensive wing that hustled and did all the little things. He isn't a reliable shooter yet, but his mechanics looked good. He was a fantastic on ball defender for FSU and was athletic as all hell.
Leandro Bolmoro- Super polished overseas dude that I think can play a small bench role in the NBA. He isn't overly athletic, but he definitely is cerebral enough to keep up in the NBA imo.
Of course there are others. Wiseman, Halliburton, Vassell but I don't think there are any realistic ways to get them.
It's good insight (Nesmith is my hope) but who do the MBT love? Advertising that you are looking to move up isn't exactly their style. I wonder if this is a smokescreen or if they really have someone in mind that could be available around 10.
(10-28-2020, 03:37 PM)cow Wrote: [ -> ]Advertising that you are looking to move up isn't exactly their style. I wonder if this is a smokescreen or if they really have someone in mind that could be available around 10.
I don't think the Mavs are "advertising" this. If you are getting possible draft-day trades lined up you have to talk to other teams and those other teams are leaking that you are looking to do this. You just can't hide that kind of thing.
This feels 100% legit. And nothing may happen, but this still may be VERY real, it just means the guy the Mavs love didn't slide to a spot they could get to.