Time to revise my draft board in response to Kamm's way-too-conservative one...
Do not want for the Mavs, but they'll push the guys I do want down:
1) Ball
2) Edwards
3) Toppin
4) Wiseman
Trade-up Targets (if they slip to #10 or lower). Offer Brunson, 18, and 31.
5) Okongwu
6) Vassell
7) Haliburton
8) Avdija
9) Okoro
Trade-up targets (if they slip to 12 or lower) 18 + 31 packaged
All of the above, plus
10) S. Bey
11) Smith
12) Terry
13) Nesmith - the big addition. If Kamm trusts that he might become worth a damn at defense, he deserves to be here.
14) Achiuwa
15) Hayes
Draft at #18 Targets. Wouldn’t trade up for them. If they reach #18, we draft them.
All of the above, plus
16) Hampton
17) Green
18) Reed (if I'm the Mavs and he's the best of these 18 available, I either reach for him here or trade down for him, as the next three guys should have strong value)
The pass on Reed, buy another pick for him, and take one of these guys instead if Donnie wants to take a flyer on this guy or simply build value crew:
19) Maxey
20) Lewis
21) Anthony
Trade for/Buy a later first Targets. Wouldn’t draft them at #18. Cuban said he was a buyer. Time for him to prove it.
All of the above if available, plus- 22) Tiger
- 23) Williams
- 24) Woodard
- 25) Bane
- 26) Bolmaro
Draft at #31 (or another 2nd round pick) Targets. Wouldn’t trade up for them. If they reach #31, we draft them.
- Any of the above, plus
- 27) Ramsay
- 28) Aleksej
- 29) Alexander
- Draft using a traded-for additional second:
- 30) Riller
- 31) Flynn
- 32) Scrubb
- 33) Hughes
- 34) Joe
The bottom line is, there are only four ways I can see the Mavs screwing the pooch on 18 with the players on this board: 1) Toppin falls and we draft him, 2) Aleksej, 3) McDaniels, or 4) reaching on another player I have below 22. If we end up with someone in the 5-14 range, Halleluka. Edit: also want to clarify that I agree with Kamm and would not be butthurt if the Mavs took Tiger at 18 if my 5-17 guys aren't available.
BTW, I'm kind of surprised that grown-up Terry doesn't get more love here. Wonder how his combine went.
My 2020 Dallas Mavericks NBA Draft Big Board 3.0:
I'll do the last one close to the draft when more information are shared.
Tier I: Superstar. Trade anything but Luka to get this guy. Potential 1st/2nd best player on our championship team.
- No one.
Tier II: All-Stars in Dallas. Trade anything but Luka/KP to get this guy. Potential 2nd/3rd best player on our championship team.
- No one.
Tier III: Trade-up for a future starter in Dallas. Trade anything but our core-6 to get this guy if he falls to #9 or lower. Potential 3rd/4th/5th best player on our championship team.
1) D. Vassell (Elite defender that can hit from outside, one of the best 3&D prospects in years)
2) T. Haliburton (PnR player with great defensive instincts)
Tier IV: Stay put for a Future role player in Dallas. Wouldn’t trade up for them. If they reach #18, we draft them. Potential 5th/6th best player on our championship team.
3) R.J. Hampton (homeboy like Trey Burke on steroids, highest ceiling of the guys available)
4) P. Achiuwa (switchability 1-5, anchor of the best defense in the country)
5) S. Bey (Elite C&S with fundamentals and versatility on defense)
6) K. Lewis Jr. (great PnR offense, shooter and as quick as it gets in this class)
7) J. Smith (modern big, shoot switch and protect)
Use #18 to get an upgrade on the roster. Guys beyond this we pick only if we can’t find a good deal to improve our roster.
8) J. Green (good C&S paired with great on-ball defense)
9) T. Maledon (killer PnR hostage, good 3rd guy potential)
10) T. Terry (elite 3-pt shooting)
Tier V: Rotation players. Wouldn’t draft them at #18 unless all options above are gone. If they reach #31 (or we trade #18 down), we draft them. Potential 6th/7th/8th best player on our championship team
11) T. Bey (vertical, post defender, lob thread, sb5 if needed)
12) N. Mannion (playmaker and shooter with elite vision)
13) L. Bolmaro (Stash, we have Madrid/Betis guys, complete with a Barcelona kid that can make plays and defend)
14) K. Tillie (best pick-and-pop guy in the draft, ready to contribute, have to pass medicals)
15) I. Quickley (FT hunter, PoA defense, 6”3 with 6”8 wingspan)
Use #31 to dump Jackson/Wright. Don’t think anyone besides this is going to have a major impact here, so we’re better off clearing some money.
Tier VI: Rotation substitute players. Wouldn’t draft them at #31, but are worth keeping an eye for a possible trade-down/undrafted/two-way scenario (all have interesting skillsets that match what we want). Possible 8th/9th/10th best player on our championship team.
16) I. Joe (Top C&S on the draft, not bad on D)
17) M. Diakite (Everything we want on defense for a PF help/post/switch with 3-pt range)
18) M. Simonovic. (Balkan boy to pick-and-pop/roll man)
Mock draft:
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2020-...ound-mock/
6) Haliburton
11) Achiuwa
12) Vassell
13) Nesmith
15) SBey
18) Hampton (holla!)
22) Maledon
23) Bolmaro
26) Woodard
31) Nnaji
44) TBey (criminal!)
50) Reed
51) Quickley
60) N'Doye
UD) Alexander
Mock draft:
https://nugglove.com/2020/10/21/rex-fost...r-nuggets/
7) Haliburton
11) Achiuwa
12) Vassell
13) Nesmith
16) SBey
18) Green
19) TBey (finally getting some respect)
20) Hampton
23) Maledon
26) Woodard
27) Reed
29) Bolmaro
NOTE:
I added @"aguiar95" and @"Scott41theMavs" updated boards to the OP as well as my own. Just for reference in case people want to find them easier.
Great stuff! Where did you find that??
(10-22-2020, 07:51 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]Great stuff! Where did you find that??
A guy on RealGM posted and I found it very intriguing.
@"Kammrath" I'd prefer TBey over Green.
(10-22-2020, 08:54 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]T. Bey = 100%, 70% chance to fall to #31
L. Bolmaro = 95%, 25% chance to fall to #31
A. Pokusevski 90%, 15% chance to fall to #31
J. Green = 90%, 5% chance to fallto #31
T. Maledon = 85%, 15% chance to fall to #31
T. Terry = 80%, 40% chance to fall to #31
J. Smith = 65%, 10% chance to fall to #31
T. Maxey = 55%
C. Anthony = 45%
K. Lewis Jr. = 40%
R.J. Hampton = 35%
S. Bey = 25%
P. Achiuwa = 25%
P. Williams = 20%
A. Nesmith = 18%
D. Vassell = 0%, 60% chance to drop #10 or lower
T. Haliburton = 0%, 20% chance to drop #10 or lower
(10-22-2020, 08:54 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]@"Kammrath" I'd prefer TBey over Green.
I'd prefer Smith or Terry over either.
I'm officially out on Green. You guys can clown me with his success down the road if I'm wrong, but I'm not feeling it.
(10-22-2020, 11:14 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I'm officially out on Green.
Me too. He didn't make my board this last time. There are other players CERTAIN to be available that I would definitely prefer over him.
What pushed me over the edge is that he is a BELOW average defender. In one-on-one situations he gave up 0.83 PPP which is 39th percentile. For comparison, Nesmith (a guy with a bad rep on D) gave up 0.71 PPP which is 56th percentile.
There is not enough else in Green's game to warrant taking him with below average D.
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media.giphy.com/media/sBGw5MruxAyiI/giphy.gif)
(10-22-2020, 08:54 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]@Kammrath I'd prefer TBey over Green.
During my research I have fallen in love with some guys and then that cools the more I watch film or look at data. This happened with Green.
But with TBey the more I watch and the more I look at data the MORE I think he is worthy of the #18 pick. The dude is a total sleeper (at least among fans). It will be super interesting to see how the teams value guys on draft night.
(10-22-2020, 01:04 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (10-22-2020, 11:14 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I'm officially out on Green.
Me too. He didn't make my board this last time. There are other players CERTAIN to be available that I would definitely prefer over him.
What pushed me over the edge is that he is a BELOW average defender. In one-on-one situations he gave up 0.83 PPP which is 39th percentile. For comparison, Nesmith (a guy with a bad rep on D) gave up 0.71 PPP which is 56th percentile.
There is not enough else in Green's game to warrant taking him with below average D.
(10-22-2020, 08:54 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]@Kammrath I'd prefer TBey over Green.
During my research I have fallen in love with some guys and then that cools the more I watch film or look at data. This happened with Green.
But with TBey the more I watch and the more I look at data the MORE I think he is worthy of the #18 pick. The dude is a total sleeper (at least among fans). It will be super interesting to see how the teams value guys on draft night.
Luka always said he wanted a tiger - let's get him one!
I think TBey works at the 4. I still don't think he can play the 3, on offense or defense, but as a switchable guy from the 4, sure, and I can see him playing the DP role just fine.
My question regarding him for the Mavs is: how much of a project would this be, and are they in a position to spend time on it? I think TBey would start out as a deep bench player here, behind Powell and Kleber, at least. If you think he could also spell DFS some at the 3 (playing WITH KP/Kleber, etc) you're probably less concerned about that, but I'm still not quite buying that part.
SBey, alternatively, I think goes right into the starting lineup at the 3, making DFS a GREAT and versatile bench forward. He's still the best case scenario (of the realistic options) imo. I wouldn't hate TBey, however.
Any chance Nesmith falls that far? Probably not, right?
(10-22-2020, 01:04 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (10-22-2020, 11:14 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I'm officially out on Green.
Me too. He didn't make my board this last time. There are other players CERTAIN to be available that I would definitely prefer over him.
What pushed me over the edge is that he is a BELOW average defender. In one-on-one situations he gave up 0.83 PPP which is 39th percentile. For comparison, Nesmith (a guy with a bad rep on D) gave up 0.71 PPP which is 56th percentile.
There is not enough else in Green's game to warrant taking him with below average D.
WOW. My problems with Green are only on the offensive side. His 3-PT% can rise since he'll receive a whole lot more of C&S (40% at Arizona with less that 25% attempts and very low USG%), especially if he gets drafted here. But he lacks guard skills to create his own shot (like DFS), limiting his ceiling as a role player.
He's easily one of the best 1v1/perimeter defender in this class (only behind Vassell/Okoro). Has all the tools (athletic/wingspan/strength) to transition to the NBA, but needs to work a bit on his help defense and judgment. Can't see anyone better fit to be our backup SF for years to come. I can understand wanting to draft a player with higher upside (I've got a few above him), but as a 3&D player he's right there after Saddiq and Vassell and has a pretty good distance to the next best 3&Ds in the class (Stanley/Joe/Quickley).
(10-22-2020, 02:08 PM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-22-2020, 01:04 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (10-22-2020, 11:14 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I'm officially out on Green.
Me too. He didn't make my board this last time. There are other players CERTAIN to be available that I would definitely prefer over him.
What pushed me over the edge is that he is a BELOW average defender. In one-on-one situations he gave up 0.83 PPP which is 39th percentile. For comparison, Nesmith (a guy with a bad rep on D) gave up 0.71 PPP which is 56th percentile.
There is not enough else in Green's game to warrant taking him with below average D.
WOW. My problems with Green are only on the offensive side. His 3-PT% can rise since he'll receive a whole lot more of C&S (40% at Arizona with less that 25% attempts and very low USG%), especially if he gets drafted here. But he lacks guard skills to create his own shot (like DFS), limiting his ceiling as a role player.
He's easily one of the best 1v1/perimeter defender in this class (only behind Vassell/Okoro). Has all the tools (athletic/wingspan/strength) to transition to the NBA, but needs to work a bit on his help defense and judgment. Can't see anyone better fit to be our backup SF for years to come. I can understand wanting to draft a player with higher upside (I've got a few above him), but as a 3&D player he's right there after Saddiq and Vassell and has a pretty good distance to the next best 3&Ds in the class (Stanley/Joe/Quickley).
Take a look at what's under Kamm's name - "Numbers Don't Lie." He loves statistics. But he tends to find one he likes in a particular area and ignores others. Sometimes I agree with that (e.g. hard to argue in favor of Desmond Bane's wingspan). However, sometimes it can get a little tunnel-visioned. Kamm, I can see the value of points against, but what about percentages? What about the eye test, being able to see how well someone defends?
(10-22-2020, 02:08 PM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-22-2020, 01:04 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (10-22-2020, 11:14 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I'm officially out on Green.
Me too. He didn't make my board this last time. There are other players CERTAIN to be available that I would definitely prefer over him.
What pushed me over the edge is that he is a BELOW average defender. In one-on-one situations he gave up 0.83 PPP which is 39th percentile. For comparison, Nesmith (a guy with a bad rep on D) gave up 0.71 PPP which is 56th percentile.
There is not enough else in Green's game to warrant taking him with below average D.
WOW. My problems with Green are only on the offensive side. His 3-PT% can rise since he'll receive a whole lot more of C&S (40% at Arizona with less that 25% attempts and very low USG%), especially if he gets drafted here. But he lacks guard skills to create his own shot (like DFS), limiting his ceiling as a role player.
He's easily one of the best 1v1/perimeter defender in this class (only behind Vassell/Okoro). Has all the tools (athletic/wingspan/strength) to transition to the NBA, but needs to work a bit on his help defense and judgment. Can't see anyone better fit to be our backup SF for years to come. I can understand wanting to draft a player with higher upside (I've got a few above him), but as a 3&D player he's right there after Saddiq and Vassell and has a pretty good distance to the next best 3&Ds in the class (Stanley/Joe/Quickley).
I agree. The projections you mention are key with these 19 year olds and Green’s defensive “upside” projects well.
Kamm’s data point doesn’t provide context. Who was he guarding. If Green always took the tough cover, then the stat he used isn’t so bad. If he covers some average Joe each time down the court, then the data point does matter. Basketball Index does a nice job providing this kind of context on pro players. I have no idea if that exists for college guys.
(10-22-2020, 02:08 PM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]He's easily one of the best 1v1/perimeter defender in this class
When I watched film I actually was not impressed by his D (even though I expected him to be great due to reputation)....then I saw his 39th percentile, 0.83 PPP one-on-one D stat.
(10-22-2020, 02:41 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Kamm’s data point doesn’t provide context. Who was he guarding. If Green always took the tough cover, then the stat he used isn’t so bad. If he covers some average Joe each time down the court, then the data point does matter.
I always take context into account when interpreting the data (all data must be interpreted).
For instance, Maxey has an insane 0.26 PPP (97th percentile) one-on-one D stat...Quickley has a more modest but still great 0.48 PPP, 84th percentile one-on-one D stat. You would think Maxey is the better defender. But watching the film you realize that Quickley guards the better, go-to guys (especially by the end of the year). The film reveals that Quickley is probably the better defender and even though Maxey's numbers are sick, he is probably closer to average as a defender (at least to my eyes).
Josh Green usually guarded the best guy for Zona, BUT he didn't even get honorable mention on the PAC-12 all defensive team (whereas Tyler Bey was the defensive player of the year allowing only 0.48 PPP in one-on-one perimeter situations). AND my eyes tell me from the tape that he is not that good of a defender at this point.
I could be wrong on Green as a defender in the NBA, but I am not impressed by what he did in college.
(10-22-2020, 02:23 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]But he tends to find one he likes in a particular area and ignores others.
This is only the way it seems. Behind my posts I am looking at WAY more than I put in a post. I just do not have the time nor the energy to share everything I find. I share the highlights, it is all I have time for.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/10/warr...vdija.html
Quote:According to Strauss, Avdija performed well in the workouts and Warriors officials were “blown away” after meeting with him. The club was impressed with the 19-year-old’s work ethic, Strauss adds.
(10-22-2020, 03:09 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ] (10-22-2020, 02:08 PM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]He's easily one of the best 1v1/perimeter defender in this class
When I watched film I actually was not impressed by his D (even though I expected him to be great due to reputation)....then I saw his 39th percentile, 0.83 PPP one-on-one D stat.
(10-22-2020, 02:41 PM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]Kamm’s data point doesn’t provide context. Who was he guarding. If Green always took the tough cover, then the stat he used isn’t so bad. If he covers some average Joe each time down the court, then the data point does matter.
I always take context into account when interpreting the data (all data must be interpreted).
For instance, Maxey has an insane 0.26 PPP (97th percentile) one-on-one D stat...Quickley has a more modest but still great 0.48 PPP, 84th percentile one-on-one D stat. You would think Maxey is the better defender. But watching the film you realize that Quickley guards the better, go-to guys (especially by the end of the year). The film reveals that Quickley is probably the better defender and even though Maxey's numbers are sick, he is probably closer to average as a defender (at least to my eyes).
Josh Green usually guarded the best guy for Zona, BUT he didn't even get honorable mention on the PAC-12 all defensive team (whereas Tyler Bey was the defensive player of the year allowing only 0.48 PPP in one-on-one perimeter situations). AND my eyes tell me from the tape that he is not that good of a defender at this point.
I could be wrong on Green as a defender in the NBA, but I am not impressed by what he did in college.
(10-22-2020, 02:23 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]But he tends to find one he likes in a particular area and ignores others.
This is only the way it seems. Behind my posts I am looking at WAY more than I put in a post. I just do not have the time nor the energy to share everything I find. I share the highlights, it is all I have time for.
Thanks for the window into the work that goes into your posts.
I'd like to see Avdija drafted second because I actually think he's one of the anointed top fivers who isn't going to be a bust.
Avdija, Okongwu, Vassell, and Haliburton - and possibly Okoro, if he can develop a useful NBA offensive game - are the super-high-floor guys in this class. They'll be 28 mpg players for good teams by year two at the latest. Some of them may not have the ceilings of Edwards and Ball, but they won't be full-on busts, whereas possibly those two - and certainly, Toppin, who will never play for a good team as anything more than a sixth man because his physical limitations will never allow him to be an even minimally-adequate defender - will be. Ditto Wiseman if he can't switch on the perimeter and stretch the floor - young Whiteside, that is all.
I stayed up really late watching and re-watching draft videos last night, with the result of being a lot more nervous about Hampton and a lot more hopeful about Lewis and possibly Maxey. Board revision again...
BTW, I wonder why the Tankathon folks haven't redone their big board (and thus their mock) for two months now. If they don't do so before the draft, it would be pretty negligent on their part. As Kamm has said, this draft is going to be cray-cray. My second-biggest fear is that Toppin falls and the Mavs take him. Hopefully Donnie is smarter than that. I'd be less devastated if they blew the pick on Aleksej. The biggest fear is that we reach on McDaniels, who I don't think is going to pan out as an NBA player at all.
Some revisions to yesterday's board after future research (and Kamm's Green observations):
Do not want for the Mavs, but they'll push the guys I do want down:
1) Ball
2) Edwards
3) Toppin
4) Wiseman
Trade-up Targets (if they slip to #10 or lower). Offer Brunson, 18, and 31.
5) Okongwu
6) Vassell
7) Haliburton
8) Avdija
9) Okoro
Trade-up targets (if they slip to 12 or lower) 18 + 31 packaged
All of the above, plus
10) S. Bey
11) Smith - If Smith never improves from what he is now, he'll be a reasonable 11th pick in ***any*** draft. If he improves, I think you've hit on an excellent complementary player who will likely make an All-Star game or two over the course of his career.
12) Terry
13) Nesmith
14) Achiuwa (I have Achiuwa this low because I think he's going to take at least a year to become useful as a rotation player for a good team, which I certainly think the Mavs are, but I think he's going to end up being quite good.)
15) Hayes (I'm not high on him overall, but if he fell this low, might as well. He is a consensus top-five guy, after all, and his name isn't Obi Toppin.)
Draft at #18 Targets. Wouldn’t trade up for them. If they reach #18, we draft them.
All of the above, plus
16) Lewis
17) Maxey
18) Reed (if I'm the Mavs and he's the best of these 18 available, I either reach for him here or trade down for him, as the next three guys should have strong value) - Just want to say I love Reed's defense (with some caveats), and especially his ***work ethic***.
The pass on Reed, buy another pick for him, and take one of these guys instead if Donnie wants to take a flyer on this guy or simply build value crew:
19) Hampton
20) Anthony
Trade for/Buy a later first Targets. Wouldn’t draft them at #18. Cuban said he was a buyer. Time for him to prove it.
All of the above if available, plus- 21) Tiger
- 22) Williams
- 23) Woodard
- 24) Green
- 25) Bane
- 26) Bolmaro
Draft at #31 (or another 2nd round pick) Targets. Wouldn’t trade up for them. If they reach #31, we draft them.
- Any of the above, plus
- 27) Ramsay
- 28) Aleksej
- 29) Alexander
- Draft using a traded-for additional second:
- 30) Riller
- 31) Flynn
- 32) Scrubb
- 33) Hughes
- 34) Joe
(10-22-2020, 04:27 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]My second-biggest fear is that Toppin falls and the Mavs take him. Hopefully Donnie is smarter than that. I'd be less devastated if they blew the pick on Aleksej. The biggest fear is that we reach on McDaniels, who I don't think is going to pan out as an NBA player at all.
Why is that? He won't fall, but Mavs can't pass on a top-5 talent like that when we're picking at #18. He would immediately start and fill the hole we have at PF. After watching videos, I'm less scared of McDaniels than I am on Poku.
PS: I don't get the love on Woodard (Post-injury/SAS Rudy Gay ceiling) and Reed (work ethic ? I heard he was a locker room problem on DePaul). I know we are in a glaring need of a SF/PF but unfortunately, this draft just doesn't have talent at the wing/forward position besides the top.