I would love for Smith to fall to 18 and for the Mavs to draft him. If a player like him falls that low and the Mavs have traded their pick, guess what I will do.
Re: the Toppin article: He's an immediate fit in the NBA - bwah-hah-hah. What BS. It's as if defense means less than nothing in today's NBA. That's the sort of thing you say if you're a scout or GM and are trying to psych a top team into drafting him so that one of the players who will really be useful in the league will fall to you. Obi Toppin? Two words - Jahlil Okafur. I know their games aren't identical. The eventual results absolutely will be.
- Here's my early estimative of who will be on the board when (if) we pick at #18:
Poku, Green, Terry, Maledon, Smith and 1 of Anthony/Hampton/Lewis.
- If T. Bey and Bolmaro are out by the time we pick at #31, I'm very much inclined to use the pick to dump Wright (preferably for air or a veteran (SF/PF) expiring).
- Get M. Diakite (Virginia) if he goes undrafted. He's old (24 by the start of the season), but very productive and has the tools to be usefull here as an emergency backup.
@"Kammrath" it only goes through the top 10. Basically, the point of the article is that New York should trade with Phoenix down to number 10, in order to select Vassell. Phoenix would take Toppin.
(10-20-2020, 10:25 AM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]- Here's my early estimative of who will be on the board when (if) we pick at #18:
Poku, Green, Terry, Maledon, Smith and 1 of Anthony/Hampton/Lewis.
.
See, if that's right, *that's* why you don't trade that pick for Victor Oladipo. No to Maledon and Poku, and Green, Anthony, and Lewis would have all been my "settle" picks (as in, my "maybe we should have traded this pick for Dipo after all" picks), but Terry, Smith, and possibly-Hampton are great fits for Dallas. If you have a choice between Terry and Smith, then that's a very good pick to have. I doubt it, but I would be ecstatic if we kept the pick and at least one of those two was still on the board.
(10-20-2020, 01:35 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ] (10-20-2020, 10:25 AM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]- Here's my early estimative of who will be on the board when (if) we pick at #18:
Poku, Green, Terry, Maledon, Smith and 1 of Anthony/Hampton/Lewis.
.
See, if that's right, *that's* why you don't trade that pick for Victor Oladipo. No to Maledon and Poku, and Green, Anthony, and Lewis would have all been my "settle" picks (as in, my "maybe we should have traded this pick for Dipo after all" picks), but Terry, Smith, and possibly-Hampton are great fits for Dallas. If you have a choice between Terry and Smith, then that's a very good pick to have. I doubt it, but I would be ecstatic if we kept the pick and at least one of those two was still on the board.
Because all the mentioned guys are automatically better or better fits than Oladipo? I don´t know when this new movement started but I really don´t get why we went from weakest draft class in the last couple of years to multiple can´t miss prospects that are worth more than a player that at worst is an upgrade over THJ.
Maybe it´s just that time of the year. Less than a month to go. Time to hype up at least 10 guys. One of them will probably turn out to be a good/great player and we will get the I told you so posts for the rest of his career.
(10-20-2020, 01:48 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ]Because all the mentioned guys are automatically better or better fits than Oladipo?
I think the logic is this (at least for me):
A) Dipo is a risky fit AND a health risk. In my opinion and conjecture I think there is about a 5% chance Dipo is 1) a great fit, 2) overcomes his health issues, AND 3) doesn't leave the Mavs hanging next summer.
B) #18 pick is indeed a risk.... historically 25% chance he is a rotation player, 15% chance he is a starter, 5% chance he is a star (82games.com numbers).
No one is saying anything is "automatic" in any of this, especially not in the draft.
So from my seat we have TWO options in this scenario surrounding Dipo speculation (though I don't think IND will trade him since his value is so low).
1) The 5% shot with Dipo is going to be EXPENSIVE, costing assets to attain AND if you keep him lots of cap room.
2) The 5% shot the #18 pick is a star is a CHEAP risk. DAL already HAS this pick in hand, doesn't need to do ANYTHING to get it. And the pick will be on a rookie salary through some key building years around Luka.
I would rather take the number two 5% chance every single time.
NOTE: My guess on the 5% chance that Dipo 1) fits next to Luka, 2) gets 100% back to his old health, and 3) does not bail on the Mavs after one year, could be wrong. But there are three moving parts in that which all seem to be risky from my seat. But this is my logic and if my guess is close, I think my position makes a lot of sense.
(10-20-2020, 01:48 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-20-2020, 01:35 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ] (10-20-2020, 10:25 AM)aguiar95 Wrote: [ -> ]- Here's my early estimative of who will be on the board when (if) we pick at #18:
Poku, Green, Terry, Maledon, Smith and 1 of Anthony/Hampton/Lewis.
.
See, if that's right, *that's* why you don't trade that pick for Victor Oladipo. No to Maledon and Poku, and Green, Anthony, and Lewis would have all been my "settle" picks (as in, my "maybe we should have traded this pick for Dipo after all" picks), but Terry, Smith, and possibly-Hampton are great fits for Dallas. If you have a choice between Terry and Smith, then that's a very good pick to have. I doubt it, but I would be ecstatic if we kept the pick and at least one of those two was still on the board.
Because all the mentioned guys are automatically better or better fits than Oladipo? I don´t know when this new movement started but I really don´t get why we went from weakest draft class in the last couple of years to multiple can´t miss prospects that are worth more than a player that at worst is an upgrade over THJ.
Maybe it´s just that time of the year. Less than a month to go. Time to hype up at least 10 guys. One of them will probably turn out to be a good/great player and we will get the I told you so posts for the rest of his career.
I am on record as being completely out on a THJ-18 trade for Oladipo. That would be a horrendous waste, and I say that as a guy who doesn't like THJ's lack of defense at all. The ideas I have seen including Curry being shipped out are many times worse - simply abominable. I would strongly dislike Wright-Jackson-18 for Oladipo, but it makes far more sense - I like the idea of having a *ton* of room and options next summer. This draft is touted as weak in terms of stars, but quite strong and deep in terms of potentially consistent role players. I would say that most of the supposedly "high ceiling" guys are going to be busts, but because you generally go after those guys in the lottery, they should push many of the role players down to the mid-teens. I think Ball, Edwards, Hayes, Williams, possibly Anthony, and especially Toppin are going to be busts for where they are taken if it's in the lottery. To clarify - I think Ball will be a decent player, but underwhelming as a top two pick. Wiseman is boom or bust - depends on how well he can stretch the floor. Lewis and Maxey are boom-or-bust. McDaniels is certainly a high-ceiling guy, but his college career suggests that it doesn't matter whether he's picked 1st or 60th - he'll be playing in China after two years trying to make it in the league. On the other hand, Okoru, Okongwu, Avdija, Haliburton, and Vassell (if he "un-fixes" his shot - what the hell happened) will be very strong role players who should be able to help their teams win more games this year. The next tier of guys - S. Bey, Achiuwa, Smith, and Terry (I would also include Nesmith, but I don't like him for the Mavs because no D) - won't be as good of role players as that first tier, but they'll be fairly immediate contributors, and might be there at 18 (those other five won't). Hampton is a boom or bust guy, but his ceiling is high enough, especially with the reports of his improved shot, that he would absolutely be more worthy of a flyer at 18, IMHO, than Oladipo.
Let me clarify, too - what makes the guys I happen to like so preferable to Oladipo is that 1) I am convinced, as I said earlier, that Dipo is a rental, whereas 2) you'd have the #18 guy on a four-year rookie salary at a time when we will need cheap young players like that who play above their contracts. Unless we completely screw the pooch on the pick, it will be like having another DFS at worst.
(10-20-2020, 02:05 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]NOTE: My guess on the 5% chance that Dipo 1) fits next to Luka, 2) gets 100% back to his old health, and 3) does not bail on the Mavs after one year, could be wrong. But there are three moving parts in that which all seem to be risky from my seat. But this is my logic and if my guess is close, I think my position makes a lot of sense.
Can we sign a piece treaty with me explaining my evaluation of this and agree we disagree? I can totally agree about your evaluation above, only the part that I just don't value #3 a lot, because I am satisfied with the 2020/2021 improvement we would get. Anything afterwards is a bonus (but we have plenty of other options). I believe there is like 80 % chance Oladipo is at least a decent two way player, let's say something like he was in OKC and a decent fit with Mavs. Remaining 15 % is he will be a bust (due to injury, bad fit or combination). Based on all this I am strongly convinced Dipo brings a much higher chance of an improvement for the Mavs than the #18 pick.
Sorry for strong words, I got too much drawn in a heated discussion of obviously very different opinions.
(10-20-2020, 02:18 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ]I can totally agree about your evaluation above, only the part that I just don't value #3 a lot, because I am satisfied with the 2020/2021 improvement we would get. Anything afterwards is a bonus (but we have plenty of other options). I believe there is like 80 % chance Oladipo is at least a decent two way player, let's say something like he was in OKC and a decent fit with Mavs. Remaining 15 % is he will be a bust (due to injury, bad fit or combination). Based on all this I am strongly convinced Dipo brings a much higher chance of an improvement for the Mavs than the #18 pick.
Thanks for explaining.
Yeah I just see the risks VERY differently and I am strongly against using assets to clear space for 2021 before we know if there is anyone worth chasing.
I think there is a good chance (maybe 70%?) Dipo is a solid (role player level) two way player for 5 more years in the league. But I don't want the Mavs to trade #18 or other assets for that outcome. That outcome is NOT good for DAL considering he wants MAX money and may walk for nothing and may not accept a lesser role. I personally want 2017-18 Dipo, or I don't want to spend the costs to get him or retain him (again 5% chance from my seat).
Time will tell how this all shakes out.
![[Image: tenor.gif]](https://media1.tenor.com/images/36ea733748533978adf74c17f2dde879/tenor.gif)
(10-20-2020, 02:18 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (10-20-2020, 02:05 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]NOTE: My guess on the 5% chance that Dipo 1) fits next to Luka, 2) gets 100% back to his old health, and 3) does not bail on the Mavs after one year, could be wrong. But there are three moving parts in that which all seem to be risky from my seat. But this is my logic and if my guess is close, I think my position makes a lot of sense.
Can we sign a piece treaty with me explaining my evaluation of this and agree we disagree? I can totally agree about your evaluation above, only the part that I just don't value #3 a lot, because I am satisfied with the 2020/2021 improvement we would get. Anything afterwards is a bonus (but we have plenty of other options). I believe there is like 80 % chance Oladipo is at least a decent two way player, let's say something like he was in OKC and a decent fit with Mavs. Remaining 15 % is he will be a bust (due to injury, bad fit or combination). Based on all this I am strongly convinced Dipo brings a much higher chance of an improvement for the Mavs than the #18 pick.
Sorry for strong words, I got too much drawn in a heated discussion of obviously very different opinions.
Does it do more to attract a free agent to have two rentals (THJ and Dipo) who helped you win in 2020-21 whom you know are going to be gone when you come to the Mavs, or a solid role player at 18 who will still be there the next three years?
To answer my own question, I think there is indeed some value to showing that Luka (and hopefully KP, pending consistent health) can win with good players around them, letting Mr. Free Agent know that they'll do even better with another *great* player next to them.
(10-20-2020, 02:30 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]or a solid role player at 18 who will still be there the next three years?
This is your assumption. There is 50 % chance this pick will not be a solid role player.
(10-20-2020, 02:33 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (10-20-2020, 02:30 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]or a solid role player at 18 who will still be there the next three years?
This is your assumption. There is 50 % chance this pick will not be a solid role player.
Welp, this is an agree-to-disagree deal. I strongly believe that Saddiq Bey, Terry, Smith, and Achiuwa will be rotation players (perhaps not starters) for some team this year. They aren't Malik Monks (I didn't like Malik before that draft and was glad the Mavs didn't take him). I would put actual money on them being top 8 in minutes for whatever team drafts them, barring injuries. I think that if one of those guys is there at 18, unless it's for Jrue or Schroder or OPJ, the Mavs done screwed up if they traded the pick.
(10-20-2020, 02:37 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ] (10-20-2020, 02:33 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (10-20-2020, 02:30 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]or a solid role player at 18 who will still be there the next three years?
This is your assumption. There is 50 % chance this pick will not be a solid role player.
Welp, this is an agree-to-disagree deal. I strongly believe that Saddiq Bey, Terry, Smith, and Achiuwa will be rotation players (perhaps not starters) for some team this year. They aren't Malik Monks (I didn't like Malik before that draft and was glad the Mavs didn't take him). I would put actual money on them being top 8 in minutes for whatever team drafts them, barring injuries. I think that if one of those guys is there at 18, unless it's for Jrue or Schroder or OPJ, the Mavs done screwed up if they traded the pick.
We are basing our numbers on the actual outcome of previous drafts. As Kamm and I mentioned multiples times...25% chance he is a rotation player, 15% chance he is a starter, 5% chance he is a star.
There always will be outstanding players that outperform their draft position. You are making it easy for yourself because one of the guys you mentioned will most likely end up as a starter/above average role player. I would do the opposite. The chances that all of them actually make it in the NBA are close to zero.
Ultimately it comes down to scouting. Do you trust Donnie/the Mavs to pick the right guy? Based on their draft history I do not.
Also don´t get why you are willing to trade #18 for Porter or Schroder but not for Oladipo. Same situation. Both can walk away next offseason. Both will ask for a big paycheck if they stay.
(10-20-2020, 02:29 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]outcome
My outcome for the Mavs is to be better next season. I don't think #18 will help much in this regard. Being better in 2020 improves our chances in 2021 free agency, which is the only realistic chance to add a third star and build a dynasty. I am not really willing to risk running back with same team and hope everything will be as great as it was this past season.
This doesn't mean I am throwing away #18 just to get rid of Wright, I think I was clear about that. Coincidentally, most of the guys I see as a good fit and dream that can be obtained for our assets are actually expiring - Schroeder, Richardson, Oubre and Dipo. I can't imagine how trading Wright (and Jackson and picks) for either of them would actually make us worse.
Out of the "two years left" guys I find mainly questionable options. Can Gordon, LaVine, Rozier ever start playing winning basketball and utilize their strengths in an efficient way? Can Prince or Gary Harris turn it around? Can Bledsoe work better for us than he did for Milwaukee? Finding the answer to these questions is a "no" will have much more serious consequence than taking a flyer on Dipo, if I use him as an example. If they don't pan out, selling their contracts will be costly. The only player from this "class" I would be comfortable trading for would be Young, as I think he fits very nicely into what we need.
Of course, if none of the options above (plus I am sure I forgot some) are available, I keep the picks and see what happens.
As for MLE, I think there will be some really nice opportunities for this level of salary, if Mavs are willing to sign for multiple years. If not, I expect someone meh on a bloated one year deal (so someone worth 4 million signed for one year 8). I would sign a one year multiyear deal for a good player. What if Gallo won't get a higher than MLE offer? I wouldn't pay him 15-20 mil for his lack of defense, but I would seriously consider him at that price. Saric, Hernangomez, Jones Jr., Dunn will most likely cost MLE or less. I would consider Millsap as I think his leadership would be very important. Perhaps Crowder will be looking for a longer deal Miami would be willing to give.
Bolmaro put up 8 pts, 10 asts, 3 rbds, 3 stls in Barcelona's win today.
His shooting needs a lot of work, but I just love his upside as a defender.
Defense starts at 36 minutes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1k1J_WE86KM
(10-20-2020, 02:48 PM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-20-2020, 02:37 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ] (10-20-2020, 02:33 PM)omahen Wrote: [ -> ] (10-20-2020, 02:30 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: [ -> ]or a solid role player at 18 who will still be there the next three years?
This is your assumption. There is 50 % chance this pick will not be a solid role player.
Welp, this is an agree-to-disagree deal. I strongly believe that Saddiq Bey, Terry, Smith, and Achiuwa will be rotation players (perhaps not starters) for some team this year. They aren't Malik Monks (I didn't like Malik before that draft and was glad the Mavs didn't take him). I would put actual money on them being top 8 in minutes for whatever team drafts them, barring injuries. I think that if one of those guys is there at 18, unless it's for Jrue or Schroder or OPJ, the Mavs done screwed up if they traded the pick.
We are basing our numbers on the actual outcome of previous drafts. As Kamm and I mentioned multiples times...25% chance he is a rotation player, 15% chance he is a starter, 5% chance he is a star.
There always will be outstanding players that outperform their draft position. You are making it easy for yourself because one of the guys you mentioned will most likely end up as a starter/above average role player. I would do the opposite. The chances that all of them actually make it in the NBA are close to zero.
Ultimately it comes down to scouting. Do you trust Donnie/the Mavs to pick the right guy? Based on their draft history I do not.
Also don´t get why you are willing to trade #18 for Porter or Schroder but not for Oladipo. Same situation. Both can walk away next offseason. Both will ask for a big paycheck if they stay.
I stick with what I said. Those four guys *will* be rotation players in the league next year. I'm not saying "one of them," I am strongly asserting "all of them." As I said, I would put actual money on it. Injuries are the *only* caveat. Now, as far as the statistical argument, it could be that none of those four guys is there. In that case, it probably means Hampton fell. I'm not 100% that he will be a rotation player next year, but I'm about 67% sure of it, and about 30% that he'll be a star. If none of those guys are available then, then I agree the pick is indeed a big dice roll. Thing is, the trade can't be done until draft day anyway, and the Mavs could present it beforehand as "wait and see."
As far as Porter and Schroder vs. Dipo, I think both are better fits overall and will command less salary next offseason. Neither is going to sit there like Dipo and expect the max whether they deserve it or not (you need to make it clear to them that the Parsons/Wes/Barnes days are over). I will say that I'm starting to get a little bit of cold feet on Schroder given comments made today on the board that made some sense.