MavsBoard

(12-15-2020, 04:06 PM)Mavsfan12 Wrote: [ -> ]We are paying an active, athletic, rim protecting/running C a mere 4.1M to do the things we would have to pay considerably more for Gobert to do.  I am happy with paying those rates for that skillset and spending the money on players who can shoot and defend in space (and in collins' case at the rim too).

I agree. 

Here's how we can bring this back to Gobert:

1) If WCS continues to play well, earning more and more minutes...

2) and IF Carlisle thinks the way Kamm does about playing two bigs together (not Powell types, but real, actual BIGS)..

...then I think we'll see some WCS/Porzingis lineups get a real shot at some point this season. 

I don't anticipate that happens, personally, but I'll be looking for it. 

I think they DO want to play two bigs, but that they want that 2nd one to be more of a Powell type. They now have three of them: Powell, Kleber and Johnson. I don't think that's an accident.

(12-15-2020, 03:47 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]It is crazy to me that adding an ALL NBA player who does not occupy/crowd the same space on offense as the Mavs two best players, is an elite screen/roller (which is needed), and is an elite defender and rim protector is somehow "painful."

Two bigs playing starter minutes that cannot defend in space well is NOT good for your defense in todays NBA (which applies to both Gobert and KP). Doesn't matter how good interior defenders they are. It will get exploited to absolute hell in the playoffs. It overrides any of the positives you just stated. Ideally you don't want any players that can't defend adequately in space (which is why a big like Bam are so valuable, and why IMO Maxi should be our starting big in KP's absence and is also our one big potentially suited to play a large amount of minutes with KP while maintaining defensive flexibility), but one stay at home big max is what you should be aiming for if they are an elite rim protector. Not really sure how this isn't obvious. The only way Gobert makes sense is if you trade KP.

Right now it is Kawhi, Gobert & Holiday as the best FA in 2021. Considering that Oladipo looks like MLE level of player right now. 

Would argue that other than Kawhi, all could renew this off-season. 
Then we have RFA.

My favorite RFA right now is Talen Horton-Tucker.

Mavs already have the perfect 2 big combo, it's Maxi and KP. Maxi is somehow the perfect blend of 4 and 5. For some reason though he sits behind Powell. I do think he is going to close games which is what actually matters.

(12-15-2020, 06:57 PM)Dundalis Wrote: [ -> ]Not really sure how this isn't obvious.

1) Gobert was indeed a disaster in the Rockets series in 2019 (-17.9). But this past playoffs he was +5.2 on/off. He showed that he could bounce back and become a winning factor in the playoffs. So much of this hate for Gobert is centered on a 5 game sample size in which the whole team was completely outmatched and out-talented by the Rockets.  

2) "Defending in space" isn't necessarily the issue. The issue in that Rockets series was they pulled Gobert to the perimeter and the rest of the Jazz defenders sucked and offered no rim protection. The Rockets killed the Jazz IN THE PAINT. With KP+Gobert you would still have a legit rim protector to back up the other.

3) KP is actually not bad at "defending in space." When he was switched onto the pick and roll ball handler he was 98th percentile (elite!) as a defender this past season, giving up only 0.50 points per play (!).

4) People just act like the KP+Gobert defense would be SO TERRIBLE, but honestly how is it going to be worse than what the Mavs have been doing? AND Gobert has good to elite impact on the offensive end because of his screening/rolling. 


Finally don't forget that there is smoke around Gobert to the Mavs. Zach Lowe reported this in November:

Quote:"Several rival executives have pitched the Mavs as a trade destination for Rudy Gobert, who is eligible for a supermax."

This kind of stuff almost always has some sort of basis for it. These rival executives are part of and hear the conversations that teams are having and what the Mavs might be shopping around for. 

I am not saying Gobert to DAL will happen.

I am not saying Gobert to DAL is the only way forward for the Mavs to get better.

I am simply saying Gobert to DAL is ONE way the Mavs could improve. Building a team like the Houston Rockets isn't the only way to win and it is nearsighted to get caught up in the copycat game. Get better talent and force the other team to adjust to you.

https://saltcityhoops.com/utahs-unique-s...ar-gobert/

Quote:Gobert is a top 15 impact player as measured by PIPM, RAPTOR, RAPTOR WAR, Win Shares, RPM, VORP and Total Points Added. Only six other players in the entire league were unamimously top-15 in all of those metrics, and those six guys were all serious MVP candidates: Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic.

Quote:It’s a running joke on NBA nerd Twitter that the way to differentiate between a casual fan and someone who understands the nuanced nature of winning basketball is to ask what they think of Gobert. Someone whose NBA diet mostly consists of SportsCenter highlights and TNT games will largely be oblivious to the enormous impact Gobert has on winning, and the myriad ways he defines the terms of engagement at both ends of the floor. He might be the most schemed-for player in the NBA, because opposing coaches have to prepare their teams not only for his stifling presence at one end of the court, but also for his game-changing gravity as one of the league’s very best roll men.

Quote:You already know about his defensive impact. He remains the standard for a rim-protecting, system-defining defensive big. But he’s probably underrated even here, as most people probably still don’t realize that he wins at least as many games with a late block or stop as even the top offensive superstars win with a clutch bucket.

Quote:Tracking systems allow us to quantify the impact different roll men have on defenses — how often does a particular diving big draw extra help and break the defense, etc. They call it “roll gravity.” Gobert typically occupies (or is not far from) the very top spot in the league at creating gravity for his teammates by being one of the most feared rollers in the NBA.

Quote:When he does get the ball, he’s merely the best volume P&R finisher in the league. Only Atlanta’s John Collins finishes as many possessions on the roll as Gobert and matches his per-possession efficiency in that play type.

Quote:There’s a reason the Jazz’s team true shooting figure is 4.5 percentage points higher when Gobert is on the court; he makes life easier for the ball handlers, the shooters, everybody.

Quote:The reality is that every defender on the court is always aware of where Gobert is and concerned with how to guard him in core actions. I’ve been in opposing locker rooms and seen Gobert’s name circled and underlined on the whiteboard. He’s a known offensive threat, just not the same kind we’re used to raving about.

Quote:Perhaps the most important development to his game has been an improved ability to guard in space. Teams have tried to use switches and small lineups to make Gobert uncomfortable in the past, especially in the protracted chess match that is a playoff series. But as he has grown more elite at guarding switches and isos, it’s no longer wise for guards to hunt Gobert....When an iso scorer uses the possession against Gobert, he allows just 0.66 points on average, tied for literally the best figure of any big man in the league with a minimum of 60 such plays.

Rudy Gobert would certainly add more talent to the team (kinda like when the Warriors acquired Russell)

So even if the Mavs acquired him and had to trade him later it would be a win

RC's thoughts on Gobert:

Quote:“He’s probably going to be Defensive Player of the Year again,” Dallas coach Rick Carlisle told ESPN’s Tim MacMahon after Gobert’s block clinched the win over the Mavs. “He impacts the game massively at the defensive end. He doesn’t just do it around the basket. He does it on the perimeter too on switches.”

I'm not going to argue that Gobert can't capably guard in space... as the five. The issue is asking both Gobert and KP to do it regularly playing together. Other teams wouldn't even need to switch, because one guy would regularly be assigned to a quick stretch-4.

It's not like teams haven't thought about using two bigs in today's NBA. The Sixers tried it and it was a disaster, even with two good defensive bigs able to defend in space. The Lakers started two bigs, but one was super-cheap and when things got real in the playoffs, they went with AD as the lone big. Because they wanted to win.

It's not that having the option of playing two bigs is bad, but being locked into it with two max-deal bigs is not an efficient allocation of resources.

(12-15-2020, 03:47 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]It is crazy to me that adding an ALL NBA player who does not occupy/crowd the same space on offense as the Mavs two best players, is an elite screen/roller (which is needed), and is an elite defender and rim protector is somehow "painful."

Quick question, are you comfortable throwing 150 mil over 4 years for Gobert. 

I LIKE the Gobert option. It makes a lot of sense. He'd be a great fit. But I don't know if I value said fit that starts at 34 million and only goes up from there. 

Gobert at 25 mil would be great. Gobert at 34 mil would be not so great. 1 contract stops at 30 mil, the other close to 40 mil.

(12-15-2020, 10:01 PM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]1) Gobert was indeed a disaster in the Rockets series in 2019 (-17.9). But this past playoffs he was +5.2 on/off. He showed that he could bounce back and become a winning factor in the playoffs. So much of this hate for Gobert is centered on a 5 game sample size in which the whole team was completely outmatched and out-talented by the Rockets.  

2) "Defending in space" isn't necessarily the issue. The issue in that Rockets series was they pulled Gobert to the perimeter and the rest of the Jazz defenders sucked and offered no rim protection. The Rockets killed the Jazz IN THE PAINT. With KP+Gobert you would still have a legit rim protector to back up the other.

3) KP is actually not bad at "defending in space." When he was switched onto the pick and roll ball handler he was 98th percentile (elite!) as a defender this past season, giving up only 0.50 points per play (!).

4) People just act like the KP+Gobert defense would be SO TERRIBLE, but honestly how is it going to be worse than what the Mavs have been doing? AND Gobert has good to elite impact on the offensive end because of his screening/rolling. 


Finally don't forget that there is smoke around Gobert to the Mavs. Zach Lowe reported this in November:





This kind of stuff almost always has some sort of basis for it. These rival executives are part of and hear the conversations that teams are having and what the Mavs might be shopping around for. 

I am not saying Gobert to DAL will happen.

I am not saying Gobert to DAL is the only way forward for the Mavs to get better.

I am simply saying Gobert to DAL is ONE way the Mavs could improve. Building a team like the Houston Rockets isn't the only way to win and it is nearsighted to get caught up in the copycat game. Get better talent and force the other team to adjust to you.

KP got DESTROYED in PnR by the Blazers. It was an absolute sh#t show. I don't care what you do against weak/half assing teams in the regular season. What happens against elite teams in the playoffs? Gobert is not a good defender in space. He is better than KP, who is definitely not a good defender in space. People say this all the time, such and such is a good defender in space "for a 5". It's like someone saying somebody is a good ball handler for a 5. That does NOT mean they are a good defender in space or a good ball handler. At all. Good NBA wings will take advantage of Gobert (and certainly KP) if they take them out to the 3 pt line or put them on an island in space all day long in a way they do not against actual bigs who defend well in space like say Bam (who actually defends well inside and out, not just "for a 5"). Even Maxi is a better defender in space than Gobert IMO, and Maxi is someone id call merely adequate defending in space though plenty would phrase him as a good defender in space "for a 5". It doesn't matter how good you are for your position, just whether you are good fullstop. Matchups also make a huge difference. Players like Gobert and KP are actively hidden as much as possible from defending quick wing players, players like Bam and even Maxi for us are actually tasked with defending really good wings, so some of the defensive metrics are also very misleading. Talking about how Gobert was pulled to the perimeter by the Rockets and blaming the rest of the Jazz for bad rim protection is a totally counter intuitive statement. Because if Gobert could actually defend well in space, the need for the secondary paint protection would be significantly reduced.

Also I'm not sure on/off plus minus means much as far as defense goes. It just means you scored more points while on the floor than you gave up. Not a great indicator IMO. I absolutely think he was abused defensively this past playoffs too.

No idea what you mean by "People just act like the KP+Gobert defense would be SO TERRIBLE, but honestly how is it going to be worse than what the Mavs have been doing?" The whole point is to NOT continue doing what the Mavs have been doing defensively, but be way way better. Pieces need to fit into team concepts, offensively and defensively. And for us going forwards it will be the playoffs that matter, not the regular season.

(12-15-2020, 06:17 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]Here's how we can bring this back to Gobert:

1) If WCS continues to play well, earning more and more minutes...

2) and IF Carlisle thinks the way Kamm does about playing two bigs together (not Powell types, but real, actual BIGS)..

...then I think we'll see some WCS/Porzingis lineups get a real shot at some point this season. 

I don't anticipate that happens, personally, but I'll be looking for it. 

I think you are probably right about this.  I believe this is what Carlisle meant when he said KP will play the five mostly and maybe see some time at the four.  Maxi and Powell are really four's (your position is dictated by who you defend).  Plus, KP plays with Powell and Maxi all of the time.  So, this wouldn't qualify as "and maybe some time at the four".  Other than Boban, Willie is the only big we have that would push KP to the four if they played together.

Willie isn't Gobert, but it will be interesting to see if it gets tried.


__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Quote:  Kammrath

It’s a running joke on NBA nerd Twitter that the way to differentiate between a casual fan and someone who understands the nuanced nature of winning basketball is to ask what they think of Gobert. Someone whose NBA diet mostly consists of SportsCenter highlights and TNT games will largely be oblivious to the enormous impact Gobert has on winning, and the myriad ways he defines the terms of engagement at both ends of the floor. He might be the most schemed-for player in the NBA, because opposing coaches have to prepare their teams not only for his stifling presence at one end of the court, but also for his game-changing gravity as one of the league’s very best roll men.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

There is a lot of sister-kissing going on in the other thread right now.  I'm an OPJ fan, but you don't give up THJ AND Powell or THJ AND DFS for him.  The names we are left with (other than Gobert) are essentially in the same class as Hardaway.  Last season THJ was in the 92nd percentile in PIPM, the 88th percentile in RPM and the 87th percentile in Raptor.  That doesn't grow on trees.  We are fortunate to have DFS and Green who can play SF, but if you are giving up THJ AND anything, the return better be top 30/40 type.  The only one left is Gobert.  Outside of that the OPJ's and Griffin's and Gordon's and Hields and Fournier's and Grant's of the world aren't elite and aren't worth an AND deal.  Gobert is, but some people won't see it until it happens (though as Killer points out WCS with KP may provide a cheap replica)

THJ's numbers might not grow on trees, but they might grow on Lukas.

(12-15-2020, 06:17 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: [ -> ]I agree. 

Here's how we can bring this back to Gobert:

1) If WCS continues to play well, earning more and more minutes...

2) and IF Carlisle thinks the way Kamm does about playing two bigs together (not Powell types, but real, actual BIGS)..

...then I think we'll see some WCS/Porzingis lineups get a real shot at some point this season. 

I don't anticipate that happens, personally, but I'll be looking for it. 

I think they DO want to play two bigs, but that they want that 2nd one to be more of a Powell type. They now have three of them: Powell, Kleber and Johnson. I don't think that's an accident.

Ya this is correct thinking. If we don't ever see Rick try 2 big lineups then we know the Mavs have little interest in going that direction. If somehow Rick did start doing WCS/KP with success then you could also argue that Mavs don't need a 20 mil+ center anyway if WCS gets it done for 4 mil a year.

The thing that's curious to me is why the Mavs looked at Crowder if they are so into Powell being in the starting lineup. I imagine they did not commit to Crowder being a full time starter. You would have thought though a Crowder signing would point more in the small-ball direction bc Crowder would be a PF here.

(12-16-2020, 09:21 AM)StepBackJay Wrote: [ -> ]If we don't ever see Rick try 2 big lineups then we know the Mavs have little interest in going that direction.

I don't think this is correct. 

RC plays talent combined with those who do what he asks and almost always goes with his read on that. Gobert is so many lightyears beyond WCS and Boban and even DP (who RC plays a ton), that I don't think you can get a read on what his desire would be with Gobert.

It is like saying that if we don't see RC play another point forward with Doncic that he wouldn't have interest in playing Lebron with Doncic.

(12-16-2020, 02:06 AM)Branduil Wrote: [ -> ]It's not like teams haven't thought about using two bigs in today's NBA. The Sixers tried it and it was a disaster, even with two good defensive bigs able to defend in space. The Lakers started two bigs, but one was super-cheap and when things got real in the playoffs, they went with AD as the lone big. Because they wanted to win.

I don't think these are comparable at all. 

Gobert is an ALL-NBA talent entering his prime. He is not 34 year old Horford playing in a super DYSFUNCTIONAL 76ers system/team. Nor is he 34 year old journeyman Dwight Howard who has been so erratic and unreliable that he is now on his 6th team in 6 years.

Would you play Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell together in the modern NBA? I sure as hell would because for me talent trumps almost everything and talent almost always makes a way to make it fit.

(12-16-2020, 07:46 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: [ -> ]There is a lot of sister-kissing going on in the other thread right now.

Yep, Gobert is one of few clear upgrade options. Other moves are much more lateral. I think unless the Mavs get a deal like they got with JRich (a clear winning trade that doesn't cost a lot) then they will be patient. Which I think is the right direction. No reason to do a panic move at this trade deadline.

(12-16-2020, 03:54 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: [ -> ]Quick question, are you comfortable throwing 150 mil over 4 years for Gobert. 

I LIKE the Gobert option. It makes a lot of sense. He'd be a great fit. But I don't know if I value said fit that starts at 34 million and only goes up from there. 

Gobert at 25 mil would be great. Gobert at 34 mil would be not so great. 1 contract stops at 30 mil, the other close to 40 mil.

Good question.

I really believe in Gobert's talent as being ELITE and NBA top 15....

....BUT I have concerns about attitude and his fit as a teammate and with RC on a personality level. I just DO NOT know enough about that side of things. The Mavs will have a LOT more intel on that than I do of course. I think if the Mavs do not like Gobert as a target it is NOT because of fit with KP, it is because of off the court and personality stuff. 

So assuming the off the court fit is good, then hell yes, I go full max on him, the same I would have offered Giannis. If he is willing to come for less that is great, but I think he makes that much of an impact on both ends that I am ALL IN........IF the the off the court stuff isn't a stumbling block (and again I just don't know on that). 


I only wanted Vuc at a reduced rate, but Gobert is a whole level way beyond Vuc where he legitimately is worth the max IMO.

(12-16-2020, 10:10 AM)Kammrath Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think this is correct. 

RC plays talent combined with those who do what he asks and almost always goes with his read on that. Gobert is so many lightyears beyond WCS and Boban and even DP (who RC plays a ton), that I don't think you can get a read on what his desire would be with Gobert.

It is like saying that if we don't see RC play another point forward with Doncic that he wouldn't have interest in playing Lebron with Doncic.

I don't think Rick wants to play KP as the FT 4. They have been adamant since he got here that they want KP playing mostly the 5. Not sure why you are fighting this so hard.